• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
• /
• v.25 no.5
• /
• pp.317-326
• /
• 2013

Probabilistic design methods can consider uncertainties of design variables and are widely used in the design of vertical breakwaters. The probabilistic design methods include a partial safety factor method, reliabilitybased design method, and performance-based design method. Especially the performance-based design method calculates the accumulated sliding distance during the lifetime of the breakwater or during a design storm. Recently a time-dependent performance-based design method has been developed based on the first-passage probability of individual sliding distance during a design storm. However, because the allowable criteria in the first-passage probability method are not established, the stability of structures cannot be quantitatively evaluated. In this study, the allowable first-passage probabilities for two limit states are proposed by calculating the first-passage probabilities for the cross-sections designed with various water depths and characteristics of extreme wave height distributions. The allowable first-passage probabilities are proposed as 5% and 1%, respectively, for the repairable limit state (allowable individual sliding distance of 0.03 m) and ultimate limit state (allowable individual sliding distance of 0.1 m). The proposed criteria are applied to the evaluation of the effect of wave-height increase due to climate change on the stability of the breakwater.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
• /
• v.26 no.8
• /
• pp.139-147
• /
• 2021

In this study, we proposed the possibility of reliability analysis of risk index by using Monte Carlo simulation as basic data of safety accident occurrence data and expert opinion by construction industry type. Through this, it is expected that risk index for safety accidents according to detailed types of works will be presented stochastically and it will be possible to predict the risk factors and the expected range of damage based on the reliability analysis in the construction safety management plan. It will also reduce many of the planning risks that are common to decision makers in the field of construction management. In identifying risks, road bridge construction was classified into earthworks, drainage works, and bridge construction, and possible safety accidents were classified based on expert data. The risk index was calculated for each detailed construction of road and bridge construction, drainage construction, and bridge construction.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
• /
• v.20 no.1
• /
• pp.95-103
• /
• 2016

The absolute value management method is widely used in the most of the earth retaining construction, which evaluates the safety by comparing measurement result and management criteria. Therefore, the management criteria is the standard to evaluate the safety of the site, and in other words, the criteria is a direct factor of the evaluation. That means that the safety of the site can not be acquired if the management criteria is not proper, even though the measurement system is perfectly set. However, many of field technicians do not have rely on the current management criteria, and they even recognize the necessity of the revision. Therefore, in this study, the necessity of the revision was studied. Also, the optimum criteria selection and the application were performed based on the test results of earth retaining deflection and probabilistic theory. The absolute value management method was used for this study. The details are tabulated.

• Journal of Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Waste Technology(JNFCWT)
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.423-434
• /
• 2016

The importance of severe nuclear accidents and probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) were brought to international attention with the occurrence of severe nuclear accidents caused by the extreme natural disaster at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in Japan. In Korea, studies on level 3 PSA had made little progress until recently. The code systems of level 3 PSA, MACCS2 (MELCORE Accident Consequence Code System 2, US), COSYMA (COde SYstem from MAria, EU) and OSCAAR (Off-Site Consequence Analysis code for Atmospheric Releases in reactor accidents, JAPAN), were reviewed in this study, and the disadvantages and limitations of MACCS2 were also analyzed. Experts from Korea and abroad pointed out that the limitations of MACCS2 include the following: MACCS2 cannot simulate multi-unit accidents/release from spent fuel pools, and its atmospheric dispersion is based on a simple Gaussian plume model. Some of these limitations have been improved in the updated versions of MACCS2. The absence of a marine and aquatic dispersion model and the limited simulating range of food-chain and economic models are also important aspects that need to be improved. This paper is expected to be utilized as basic research material for developing a Korean code system for assessing off-site consequences of severe nuclear accidents.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2019.05a
• /
• pp.17-17
• /
• 2019

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) 기후변화 전망보고서에 따르면 RCP 4.5 시나리오 기준, 21세기 전 지구 평균기온은 $2.5^{\circ}C$ 상승(한반도 $+3.0^{\circ}C$)하며, 전 지구 평균강수량은 4.1% 증가(한반도 +16.0%)할 것이라 전망하고 있다(기상청, 2012). 최근 기후변화와 기상이변에 따른 도심지 폭우특성이 변화하고 있음을 많은 연구결과에서 말해주고 있으며, 그 발생 빈도와 강도가 점차 증가하고 있는 추세이다. 특히, 서울시의 경우 인구와 재산이 밀집해 있어 폭우 발생에 의한 시민의 인명과 재산 피해 우려가 크다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 서울시를 대상으로 근미래(~2050년) 기후변화 하에서의 재현기간에 따른 확률강우량 변화 특성을 분석하여 비교 평가한 후 설계 강우량 산정에 활용하고자 하였다. 관측자료 기반 강수량의 변동 특성 분석과 Non-stationary GEV방법을 이용한 비정상성 빈도해석을 수행하였으며, 근미래 폭우특성 변화분석을 위하여 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5)에 참여한 GCMs(General Circulation Models)을 활용한 강우빈도해석을 수행하였다. Mann-Kendall Test와 Quantile Regression을 통한 서울지점 여름철 강수량(June to September)과 기준강수량 초과 강수(30, 50, 80, 100mm/hr), 연간 10th 최대 강수량(Annual Top 10th Precipitation) 등을 분석한 결과 최근 증가 경향이 뚜렷하게 나타났으며, 비정상성 빈도해석에 의한 확률강우량 분석의 가능성과 신뢰성을 확인하였다. 또한 19-GCMs을 통하여 모의된 일(Daily) 단위 강수량자료를 비모수통계적 상세화(Nonparametric Temporal Downscaling) 기법을 적용하여 시간(Hourly) 강우로 다운스케일링하였으며, 서울시 미래 확률강우량에 대한 IDF 곡선(Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curve)을 작성하여 비교?분석한 결과 지속시간 1시간 강우에 대하여 재현기간 30년, 100년 조건에서 확률강우량이 약 4%~11% 수준에서 증가하고 있음을 확인하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 도심지 수공구조물의 설계빈도 영향을 진단하고, 근미래 발생가능한 확률강우량 변화에 따른 시간당 목표 강우량설정의 방법론을 제시하였다는데 의의가 있으며, 서울시의 방재성능목표 설정과 침수취약지역 해소를 위한 기후변화에 따른 수공구조물 설계 시 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
• /
• v.2 no.1
• /
• pp.57-64
• /
• 2009

With the increase in construction of long railway tunnel, social interest in the railway tunnel fire risk has also increased. However, quantitative fire risk research on this topic is still lacking, especially in terms of consideration of uncertainty of each variables used in risk analysis. Hence, in this study, to improve the overall performance of fire risk analysis technique for railway tunnel, Monte-Carlo simulation method is added to the traditional probabilistic risk analysis based on event tree approach and its validity is investigated by applying it to the real railway tunnel project.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
• /
• v.30 no.2
• /
• pp.91-97
• /
• 2005

Bayesian methodology is appropriated for use in PRA because subjective knowledges as well as objective data are applied to assessment. In this study, radiological risk based on Bayesian methodology is assessed for the loss of source in field radiography. The exposure scenario for the lost source presented in U.S. NRC is reconstructed by considering the domestic situation and Bayes theorem is applied to updating of failure probabilities of safety functions. In case of updating of failure probabilities, it shows that 5 % Bayes credible intervals using Jeffreys prior distribution are lower than ones using vague prior distribution. It is noted that Jeffreys prior distribution is appropriated in risk assessment for systems having very low failure probabilities. And, it shows that the mean of the expected annual dose for the public based on Bayesian methodology is higher than the dose based on classical methodology because the means of the updated probabilities are higher than classical probabilities. The database for radiological risk assessment are sparse in domestic. It summarizes that Bayesian methodology can be applied as an useful alternative lot risk assessment and the study on risk assessment will be contributed to risk-informed regulation in the field of radiation safety.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Disaster Information Conference
• /
• 2017.11a
• /
• pp.323-326
• /
• 2017

본 논문에서는 대학교의 재난안전관리 역량 증진의 필요성을 시사하고, 이를 위한 방법론을 제시하고자 하였다. 대학교는 다량의 화학물질 보유, 출입통제 제한적, 인적 물적 인프라 집중 등의 이유로 재난 및 안전사고 발생 확률이 높으며 동시에 발생 시 피해규모도 클 것이라 예측 가능하다. 하지만 아직까지 대학교 재난안전관리에 대하여 대학실험실안전관리에만 치중되어 있는 경향이 있다. 그러므로 대학교 재난안전관리 역량지표를 개발하고 역량수준을 진단하여 전반적인 대학교 재난안전관리 역량수준을 향상시킬 필요성이 있다. 본 논문에서는 대학교 재난안전관리 역량지표 개발을 위해 선행되어야 할 국내외 재난안전관리 역량분석을 실시하였다. 대학교 재난안전관리 현황분석을 통한 대학교 재난안전관리 업무목록을 바탕으로 국내외 재난안전관리 역량지표를 적용하여 대학교 재난안전관리 역량지표 개발이 가능할 것이다.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
• /
• v.32 no.2
• /
• pp.93-101
• /
• 2019

The objective of this study is to develop a model which can predict the seismic performance of the slope relatively accurately and efficiently by using artificial neural network(ANN) technique. The quantification of such the seismic performance of the slope is not easy task due to the randomness and the uncertainty of the earthquake input and slope model. Under these circumstances, probabilistic seismic fragility analyses of slope have been carried out by several researchers, and a closed-form equation for slope seismic performance was proposed through a multiple linear regression analysis. However, a traditional statistical linear regression analysis has shown a limit that cannot accurately represent the nonlinearistic relationship between the slope of various conditions and seismic performance. In order to overcome these problems, in this study, we attempted to apply the ANN to generate prediction models of the seismic performance of the slope. The validity of the derived model was verified by comparing this with the conventional multi-linear and multi-nonlinear regression models. As a result, the models obtained through the ANN basically showed excellent performance in predicting the seismic performance of the slope, compared to the models obtained by the statistical regression analyses of the previous study.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
• /
• v.35 no.3
• /
• pp.86-95
• /
• 2020

This paper describes the work and the results of the final Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the Jordan Research and Training Reactor (JRTR). This final PSA was undertaken to assess the level of safety for the design of a research reactor and to evaluate whether it is probabilistically safe to operate and reliable to use. The scope of the PSA described here is a Level 1 PSA, which addresses the risks associated with core damage. After reviewing the documents and its conceptual design, nine typical initiating events were selected regarding internal events during the normal operation of the reactor. AIMS-PSA (Version 1.2c) was used for the accident quantification, and FTREX was used as the quantification engine. 1.0E-15/yr of the cutoff value was used to deliminate the non-effective Minimal Cut Sets (MCSs) when quantifying the JRTR PSA model. As a result, the final result indicates a point estimate of 2.02E-07/yr for the overall Core Damage Frequency (CDF) attributable to internal initiating events in the core damage state for the JRTR. A Loss of Primary Cooling System Flow (LOPCS) is the dominant contributor to the total CDF by a single initiating event (9.96E-08/yr), and provides 49.4% of the CDF. General Transients (GTRNs) are the second largest contributor, and provide 32.9% (6.65E-08/yr) of the CDF.