• Title/Summary/Keyword: 호텔 수요 예측

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인터뷰/존 호렛 NYMEX마케팅 부장-중동 원유 선물거래 많은 이용 바랍니다

  • Gu, Ik-Mo
    • Korea Petroleum Association Journal
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    • no.11 s.209
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    • pp.32-33
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    • 1998
  • 최근 국제원유시장의 구조는 원유시장이 성립된 이래 가장 복잡하고 이해하기 어렵다고 볼 수 있다. 세계적으로 연료수급균형을 둘러싸고 예측할 수 없는 수 많은 변화 요인과 관련, 업계가 적절히 대응할 수 있는데 대한 관심이 높아지고 있는 가운데, 세계최대의 상품거래소중의 하나인 NYMEX(뉴욕상품거래소)가 지난 10월 23일 인터컨티넨탈 호텔에서 NYMEX중동원유세미나를 가졌다. 이 세미나는 내년초 중동산 원유인 오만ㆍ두바이의 신규상장을 앞두고 원유선물거래 및 옵션거래제도를 알리기 위해 대한석유협회에서 후원하고 NYMEX가 주최하는 것으로 업계, 협회 및 기타 관련기관에서 약 80여명이 참가했다. 다음은 이 세미나에 앞서 22일 석유협회에 내방한 NYMEX의 John Howlet 마케팅부장과의 인터뷰 내용을 정리한 것이다. <편집자 주>

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Development of a Resort's Cross-selling Prediction Model and Its Interpretation using SHAP (리조트 교차판매 예측모형 개발 및 SHAP을 이용한 해석)

  • Boram Kang;Hyunchul Ahn
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.195-204
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    • 2022
  • The tourism industry is facing a crisis due to the recent COVID-19 pandemic, and it is vital to improving profitability to overcome it. In situations such as COVID-19, it would be more efficient to sell additional products other than guest rooms to customers who have visited to increase the unit price rather than adopting an aggressive sales strategy to increase room occupancy to increase profits. Previous tourism studies have used machine learning techniques for demand forecasting, but there have been few studies on cross-selling forecasting. Also, in a broader sense, a resort is the same accommodation industry as a hotel. However, there is no study specialized in the resort industry, which is operated based on a membership system and has facilities suitable for lodging and cooking. Therefore, in this study, we propose a cross-selling prediction model using various machine learning techniques with an actual resort company's accommodation data. In addition, by applying the explainable artificial intelligence XAI(eXplainable AI) technique, we intend to interpret what factors affect cross-selling and confirm how they affect cross-selling through empirical analysis.

Forecasting Demand for Food & Beverage by Using Univariate Time Series Models: - Whit a focus on hotel H in Seoul - (단변량 시계열모형을 이용한 식음료 수요예측에 관한 연구 - 서울소재 특1급 H호텔 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • 김석출;최수근
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.5 no.1
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 1999
  • This study attempts to identify the most accurate quantitative forecasting technique for measuring the future level of demand for food & beverage in super deluxe hotel in Seoul, which will subsequently lead to determining the optimal level of purchasing food & beverage. This study, in detail, examines the food purchasing system of H hotel, reviews three rigorous univariate time series models and identify the most accurate forecasting technique. The monthly data ranging from January 1990 to December 1997 (96 observations) were used for the empirical analysis and the 1998 data were left for the comparison with the ex post forecast results. In order to measure the accuracy, MAPE, MAD and RMSE were used as criteria. In this study, Box-Jenkins model was turned out to be the most accurate technique for forecasting hotel food & beverage demand among selected models generating 3.8% forecast error in average.

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Energy Consumption Patterns for Various Building Types in Taejon (대전지역의 건물별 에너지 소비패턴에 대한 실태조사)

  • Kim, B.S.;Kim, Y.D.
    • Solar Energy
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.41-50
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    • 1998
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze the energy consumption status for various building types in Taejon. 35 sample buildings were classified into 8 building types, i.e., sports center & swimming pools, hotels, telecommunication exchange service facility, hospitals, research laboratories, department stores, exhibition galleries, universities. According to analyses, energy consumption patterns varies significantly for each building type. Sports centers consumes highest rate(689 $Mcal/sqm{\cdot}yr$) and universities lowest rate(86 $Mcal/sqm{\cdot}yr$) among selected building types.

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A Study on the Main Characteristics and Factors of the Process of Beginning Egress during the Fire at the Buildings - Focus on Overseas Fire Cases including the Japanese - (건축물 화재 시 피난개시과정의 주요 특성 및 요소에 관한 연구 - 일본 등 해외 화재사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Park, Jae-Sung
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.59-68
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    • 2012
  • Predicting occupants' behaviors from the start of the fire to egress and reducing the time required for such process are critical matters that can decide success and failure of safe egress. In this research, research literatures and theories and fire cases were compared and analyzed so as to prepare logical grounds that could predict the process of beginning egress. As a result of this research, there was a significant difference in the time elapsed until people start evacuating due to spatial positions and quarantine from the place from which the fire originated and their auditive and olfactory signs did not recognize the fire instantly and they showed a strong tendency to recognize the fire by visual sign, warning announcement for egress and notice by others. And the results also showed that only a very small minority of occupants evacuated as soon as they perceived the fire and that variation in the time elapsed until evacuation begun for occupants were wider as the size of building was bigger and that accommodations such as hotel had wider variation in the time elapsed regardless of the size of buildings.

A multi-channel CNN based online review helpfulness prediction model (Multi-channel CNN 기반 온라인 리뷰 유용성 예측 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Li, Xinzhe;Yun, Hyorim;Li, Qinglong;Kim, Jaekyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.171-189
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    • 2022
  • Online reviews play an essential role in the consumer's purchasing decision-making process, and thus, providing helpful and reliable reviews is essential to consumers. Previous online review helpfulness prediction studies mainly predicted review helpfulness based on the consistency of text and rating information of online reviews. However, there is a limitation in that representation capacity or review text and rating interaction. We propose a CNN-RHP model that effectively learns the interaction between review text and rating information to improve the limitations of previous studies. Multi-channel CNNs were applied to extract the semantic representation of the review text. We also converted rating into independent high-dimensional embedding vectors representing the same dimension as the text vector. The consistency between the review text and the rating information is learned based on element-wise operations between the review text and the star rating vector. To evaluate the performance of the proposed CNN-RHP model in this study, we used online reviews collected from Amazom.com. Experimental results show that the CNN-RHP model indicates excellent performance compared to several benchmark models. The results of this study can provide practical implications when providing services related to review helpfulness on online e-commerce platforms.

Financial Feasibility Study by Considering Risk Factors for High-Rise Development Project (초고층 개발사업의 리스크 요인을 고려한 재무적 타당성 분석)

  • Chun, Young-Jun;Cho, Joo-Hyun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.3-16
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    • 2017
  • Forecasting cash flow is very important but is difficult and complicated to analysis in high-rise development projects. And An expected value which was forecasted on the early stage is likely to fluctuate due to uncertainties around such complicated huge project to consider the probable uncertainty. There are not objectified method which are able to cope with uncertainty of project, and feasibility study based on selected financial analysis does not include liquidity of cash flow. Through such a stochastic method, developer can cope with cash flow fluctuation and set up a financial plan. Also this study is meaningful for laying the foundation for high-rise development project and feasibility study as well as the suitability and accuracy of feasibility study. Analysis showed that NPV and IRR include residential apartments shows surplus revenue as return of apartments offset deficit of hotel and office. Factors influencing the project feasibility for high-rise development project are sales account of $1^{st}$ year and annual vacancy rate of office.

A Study on the Determinants of Demand for Visiting Department Stores Using Big Data (POS) (빅데이터(POS)를 활용한 백화점 방문수요 결정요인에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Seong Youn;Park, Jung A
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.55-71
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    • 2022
  • Recently, the domestic department store industry is growing into a complex shopping cultural space, which is advanced and differentiated by changes in consumption patterns. In addition, competition is intensifying across 70 places operated by five large companies. This study investigates the determinants of the visits to department stores using the big data concept's automatic vehicle access system (pos) and proposes how to strengthen the competitiveness of the department store industry. We use a negative binomial regression test to predict the frequency of visits to 67 branches, except for three branches whose annual sales were incomplete due to the new opening in 2021. The results show that the demand for visiting department stores is positively associated with airport, terminal, and train stations, land areas, parking lots, VIP lounge numbers, luxury store ratio, F&B store numbers, non-commercial areas, and hotels. We suggest four strategies to enhance the competitiveness of domestic department stores. First, department store consumers have a high preference for luxury brands. Therefore, department stores need to form their own overseas buyer teams to discover and attract new luxury brands and attract customers who have a high demand for luxury brands. In addition, to attract consumers with high purchasing power and loyalty, it is necessary to provide more differentiated products and services for VIP customers than before. Second, it is desirable to focus on transportation hub areas such as train stations, airports, and terminals in Gyeonggi and Incheon. Third, department stores should attract tenants who can satisfy customers, given that key tenants are an important component of advanced shopping centers for department stores. Finally, the department store, a top-end shopping center, should be developed as a space with differentiated shopping, culture, dining out, and leisure services, such as "The Hyundai", which opened in 2021, to ensure future growth potential.

A Study on Classifications and Trends with Convergence Form Characteristics of Architecture in Tall Buildings (초고층빌딩의 융합적 건축형태 분류와 경향에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sang Jun
    • Korea Science and Art Forum
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.119-133
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    • 2019
  • This study is as skyscrapers are becoming increasingly taller, more constructors have decided the height alone cannot be a sufficient differentiator. As a result, atypical architecture is emerging as a new competitive factor. Also, it can be used for symbolizing the economic competitiveness of a country, city, or business through its form. Before the introduction of digital media, there was a discrepancy between the structure and form of a building and correcting this discrepancy required a separate structural medium. Since the late 1980s, however, digitally-based atypical form development began to be used experimentally, and, until the 2000s, it was used mostly for super-tall skyscrapers for offices or for industrial chimneys and communication towers. Since the 2000s, many global brand hotels and commercial and residential buildings have been built as super-tall skyscrapers, which shows the recent trend in architecture that is moving beyond the traditional limits. Complex atypical structure is formed and the formative characteristics of diagonal lines and curved surfaces, which are characteristics of atypical architecture, are created digitally. Therefore, it's goal is necessary to identify a new relationship between the structure and forms. According to the data of Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat (CTBUH), 100-story and taller buildings were classified into typical, diagonal, curved, and segment types in order to define formative shapes of super-tall skyscrapers and provide a ground of the design process related to the initial formation of the concept. The purpose of this study was to identify the correlation between different forms for building atypical architectural shapes that are complex and diverse. The study results are presented as follows: Firstly, complex function follows convergence form characteristics. Secondly, fold has inside of architecture with repeat. Thirdly, as curve style which has pure twist, helix twist, and spiral twist. The findings in this study can be used as basic data for classifying and predicting trends of the future super-tall skyscrapers.