• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.159-174
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• 2013

This paper mainly deals with the appropriation of ship voyage allocation, using a heuristic regression model, in order to reduce total costs incurred in port, yard and at sea under the specific port condition. Because of different behavior of costs incurred in port, yard and at sea, an effort to minimize these costs by adjusting the number of voyages for three ship classes(50,000, 100,000, and 150,000-ton) should be made. For instance, if the port managers attempt to reduce the sea transport cost by increasing the annual allocated number of ship voyages classed 150,000-ton for economies of scale, they have no choice but to suffer a significant increase in queueing cost due to port congestion. To put it differently, there are trade-off relationships among the costs incurred in port, yard, and at sea. We utilized a computer simulation result to perform a couple of regression analyses in order to figure out the appropriate range of allocated number of voyages of each ship class using a heuristic approach. The detailed analytical results will be shown at the main paper. We also suggested a net present value(NPV) model to make a proper investment decision for an additional berth of 200,000-ton class that alleviates port congestion and reduces transport cost incurred both in port and at sea.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.27 no.2
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• pp.297-311
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• 2011

This paper deals with a strategic investment decision model for improving investment profit in shipping industry. Despite the quantitative expansion of Korean shipping business, many shipping firms have suffered financial difficulties due to financial and operating risks that result from the characteristics of capital-intensive business as well as of volatility of shipping markets. As a result, managers in charge of making an investment decision, particularly in tramper business sector, are required to take both financial and operating risk factors into consideration. Put it differently, managers are strongly recommended to avoid these risks by ship asset play; buy-low and sell-high, which results in considerable capital gain and cost reduction. In addition, managers in shipping industry are also recommended to consider the ship chartering investment alternative when the freight markets show extreme volatility as the case of 2008 triggered by sub-prime mortgage financial crisis in USA. For example, the BDI suffered plunging down from 1000 in 2008 to 100 in 2010. Consequently, the 4th largest shipping company in Korea, DAEHAN Shipping Co., has collapsed primarily due to excessive tonnage expansion during the peak time of bulk market. In sum, the strategic investment decision model, suggested in this paper, is designed to include such factors as capital gain by asset play, timely chartering for alternative shipping service, and optimization of operating profit by tonnage adjustment in accordance with change in the shipping markets concerned.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.1-18
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• 2010

With the maturity and fierce competition of domestic logistics market, Korea government is actively working on the overseas investments in global logistics market after establishing the basic plan since 2006. In particular, India is selected one of promising countries for logistics investments since it has more 1.1 billion people and is regarded as post-China. In fact, a number of global logistics enterprises have started their businesses in the logistics market of India so that the competition already started. In this regard, it is highly necessary to find out feasible investment projects and then detemin the priority of the alternatives for successful investments. Therefore this study proposes a fuzzy-based AHP model by which the overseas investment problem was systematically structured and then evaluated. The model was established by exploiting a fuzzy theory and AHP for capturing the inexactness and vagueness of information. The results show that the investment of port operations is the number one priority in the India's logistics market and ODCY operations, road transportations, forwarding operations, inland depot operations in order. Finally the proposed model will help Korea's policy makers to have a better reliable investment strategy.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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• 2020.07a
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• pp.617-618
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• 2020

우리나라의 지리적인 여건상 대륙과 연결되지 않기 때문에 해상운송에 절대적으로 의존하고 있다. 해상운송에 있어 항만시설의 확보가 필요하며 대외무역의존도가 높은 우리나라의 경우 더욱 중요한 역할을 한다. 항만시설은 장기적인 항만수요예측을 통해 대규모 인프라투자를 결정하며 단기적인 예측은 항만운영의 효율성을 개선하고 항만의 경쟁력을 제고하는데 기여하므로 예측의 정확성을 높이기 위해 많은 노력이 필요하다. 본 논문에서는 딥러닝 모델 중에 하나인 LSTM(Long Short Term Memory)을 적용하여 우리나라 주요항만의 컨테이너 물동량 단기예측을 수행하여 선행연구들에서 주류를 이뤘던 ARIMA류의 시계열모델과 비교하여 예측성능을 평가할 것이다. 본 논문은 학문적으로 항만수요예측에 관한 새로운 예측모델을 제시하였다는 측면에서 의미가 있으며 실무적으로 항만수요예측에 대한 정확성을 개선하여 항만투자의사결정에 과학적인 근거로서 활용이 가능할 것으로 기대된다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.29 no.2
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• pp.137-157
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• 2013

Korean shipping industry is ranked the fifth largest in the world in terms of deadweight tonnage after Greece, Japan, Germany and China with 55 million DWT as of year 2011, and its size of foreign exchange earning marked 30 billion US dollars. In respect of volume of seaborne trade, it has handled 99% of import and export cargoes. Korean shipping fleets have increased from 420 to 979 ships between year 2003 to year 2011. By reviewing through the relating literatures, it has been found that Shipping Funds under Ship Investment Company Act, and Tonnnage Tax System, worked as positive influences to increase the Korean shipping fleets. However, there is scant of research to examine the following two points: 1) weighing the decision making factors of ship investments for Korean shipping companies, and 2) weighing the influential factors of government shipping policies. In this respect, the aim of this study is to evaluate 8 decision making factors of ship investments for Korean shipping companies, and 8 influential factors of government shipping policies. For weighing the factors, the fuzzy methodology was adopted. As the results, for the side of decision making factors of ship investments, 'shipping market conditions and future prospects', 'ship's price and future prospects, and 'securing cargoes and future prospects' are ranked as top 3 factors. For government shipping policies side, 'shipping finance provided by lease companies', 'establishment of Korea Shipping Guarantee Fund', and 'establishment of Korea Shipping Finance Corporation' are verified as the important factors.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.38 no.2
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• pp.95-107
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• 2022

Shipping companies earn profits through cargo transportation, and therefore, investment decisions to purchase ships are more important than anything else. Nevertheless, the cash flow discount method was mainly used in the economic analysis method, which assumes that all situations are static. This study shows that the real option model is useful in the economic analysis of ship investment. This economic analysis took into account the irreversibility of investment and uncertainty of benefits. In particular, this study used a binary option price determination model among real options. In addition, the simulation was conducted using actual investment data of A shipping company. As a result of the analysis, the investment value of used ships according to the net present value method was analyzed as negative (-), but the investment value in the real option model reflecting the flexibility of decision-making was evaluated as having positive (+) economic feasibility. It was analyzed that economic feasibility is affected by profit volatility and discount rate. Therefore, this study is expected to help shipping companies make more flexible decisions by using the real option model along with the existing net present value method when making ship investment decisions.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.12 s.173
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• pp.1067-1080
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• 2006

In empirical evaluations of public projects and public provided goods, MCDA(multicriteria decision-making analysis) has helped decision makers with an adequate policy decision-making tool since it allows taking into account a wide range of assessment criteria. As a tool for decision-making of conflict management, MCDA has demonstrated its usefulness in many public projects such as road, dam and harbor construction. In this study, to use this merit of MCDA, dam project assessment indicators from points of social, economic, environmental and practical views are developed based on sustainable development of water resources, and weighting factors are also estimated by means of questionnaire survey. In order to decide project investment rank, developed evaluation indicators are applied to 6 existing dams under investigation for a rehabilitation project. In addition to, it is recognized that the project practicability has become more important indicator as well as environmental and social issues. This is because cooperation and support from a local government and people are regarded as one of the most important problems in public projects recently.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.58-81
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• 2010

The economic appraisal of a port remodeling project must be transparent and persuasive to the public over the entire stage of the project. A project evaluator need to be familiar with the guidelines on evaluation, and to do his best to follow the guidelines to evaluate the given project. To make the right decision on investment, the evaluator must take into consideration not only economic efficiency, but also equity issues such as income redistribution and balanced development between regions. Port remodeling projects tend to produce externalities to the environment. However, these externalities are of qualitative nature, and hard to measure in monetary terms, so these are liable to be ignored in the process of project evaluation. Two different approaches - RP(revealed preference) and SP(stated preference) have been tried to assess the value of these non-market goods. Government authorities need to set minimum guidelines which project evaluators must follow in order to make the evaluation more reliable.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2004.11a
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• pp.263-272
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• 2004

전 세계 항만은 급속히 변화하는 환경에 적응하고, 경쟁국가 항만보다 앞서나가기 위한 노력을 지속적으로 경주하고 있는 실정이다. 주목할 만한 세계항만의 변화는 연평균 $8.4\%$씩 증가 추세에 있는 전 세계 물동량 및 선박의 대형화 즉, 현재 8,000TEU급 선박은 물론 12,000TEU급 선박까지 출현하는 현실을 들 수 있다. 이외에도 인건비 상승, 항만관련 기술 환경의 변화와 같은 환경적 변화가 급격히 일어나고 있는 실정이다. 국내의 경우도 2000년 현재 912만TEU 수준인 물동량이 2011년에는 1,318만 TEU로 증가할 것으로 전망하고 있는데 이는 2000년 현재의 3배 수준이고, 인건비 또한 컨테이너터미널 비용의 $40\%$이상을 차지하는 둥 다양한 어려움을 겪고 있다. 따라서 국내 특히 부산항만은 이러한 환경변화에 대응할 수 있는 컨테이너터미널 시설이 필요한데 이를 위해서는 현재의 시설은 최대한 활용하면서 생산성의 극대화는 물론 비용 절감을 위한 방안이 필요하다. 따라서 본 연구는 국외 선진 자동화 컨테이너터미널의 야드 운영현황을 파악하여 요인도출 및 이러한 결과를 토대로 국내 의 경우 어떠한 부분들을 자동화하는 것이 가장 효과적인지에 관한 대안을 도출한다. 도출된 대안별로 초기 투자비 및 운영비에 대한 현재가치를 제시하여 의사결정자의 의사결정 시 참고할 수 있는 방안을 제시하고자 한다. 이러한 연구는 현재 국내 컨테이너터미널이 향후 자동화로 전 환할 때 중요한 기준이 될 수 있으며 항만에 관한 국가 정책수립 시에도 중요한 참고자료로서 활용가능하다.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.37 no.2
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• pp.119-131
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• 2021

Energy is an essential element in economic activity and people's lives, an important resource used by various industries, and the financialization of commodity markets has led to the growing importance of crude oil turning into the same asset as other assets. Accordingly, studies analyzing the correlation between energy prices and investor sentiment explain that investor sentiment affects oil prices through economic factors and speculation. In this study, we wanted to analyze whether the impact of the most representative changes in oil prices affects investor decision making, affecting investor sentiment, and applying wavelet consistency analysis to determine how energy prices relate to investor sentiment. Studies show that policies should be focused on policy and market changes because energy prices differ by time scale and investment sentiment should be more influential in the long term than in the short term.