• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.34 no.2
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• pp.239-254
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• 2021

This paper studies time series analysis with estimation and forecasting for Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, based on the approach of a heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model with two-piece t (TP-T) distributed errors. We consider HAR-TP-T time series models and suggest a step-by-step method to estimate HAR coefficients as well as TP-T distribution parameters. In our proposed step-by-step estimation, the ordinary least squares method is utilized to estimate the HAR coefficients while the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is adopted to estimate the TP-T error parameters. A simulation study on the step-by-step method is conducted and it shows a good performance. For the empirical analysis on the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases, estimates in the HAR-TP-T models of order p = 2, 3, 4 are computed along with a couple of selected lags, which include the optimal lags chosen by minimizing the mean squares errors of the models. The estimation results by our proposed method and the solely MLE are compared with some criteria rules. Our proposed step-by-step method outperforms the MLE in two aspects: mean squares error of the HAR model and mean squares difference between the TP-T residuals and their densities. Moreover, forecasting for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases is discussed with the optimally selected HAR-TP-T model. Mean absolute percentage error of one-step ahead out-of-sample forecasts is evaluated as 0.0953% in the proposed model. We conclude that our proposed HAR-TP-T time series model with optimally selected lags and its step-by-step estimation provide an accurate forecasting performance for the Korean COVID-19 confirmed cases.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF PACKAGING SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.183-192
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• 2022

With the growth of the packaging industry, demand on the packaging printing comes in various forms. Customers' orders are diversifying and the standards for quality are increasing. Offset printing is mainly used in the packaging printing since it is easy to print in large quantities. However, productivity of the offset printing decreases when printing various order. This is because it takes time to change colors for each printing unit. Therefore, scheduling that minimizes the color replacement time and shortens the overall makespan is required. By the existing manual method based on workers' experience or intuition, scheduling results may vary for workers and this uncertainty increase the production cost. In this study, we propose an automated scheduling method of parallel offset printing process for packaging printing. We decompose the original problem into assigning and sequencing orders, and ink arrangement for printing problems. Vehicle routing problem and assignment problem are applied to each part. Mixed integer programming is used to model the problem mathematically. But it needs a lot of computational time to solve as the size of the problem grows. So guided local search algorithm is used to solve the problem. Through actual data experiments, we reviewed our method's applicability and role in the field.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.35 no.5_1
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• pp.649-663
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• 2019

The 2018 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) report announced that deforestation in North Korea is the most extreme situation and in terms of climate change, this deforestation is a global scale issue. To respond deforestation, various study and projects are conducted based on remote sensing, but access to public data in North Korea is limited, and objectivity is difficult to be guaranteed. In this study, the forest detection based on density estimation in statistic using Landsat imagery was conducted in Gangwon province which is the only administrative district divided into South and North. The forest spatial data of South Korea was used as data for the labeling of forest and Non-forest in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and a threshold (0.6658) for forest detection was set by Gaussian Probability Density Function (PDF) estimation by category. The results show that the forest area decreased until the 2000s in both Korea, but the area increased in 2010s. It is also confirmed that the reduction of forest area on the local scale is the same as the policy direction of urbanization and industrialization at that time. The Kappa value for validation was strong agreement (0.8) and moderate agreement (0.6), respectively. The detection based on the Gaussian PDF estimation is considered a method for complementing the statistical limitations of the existing detection method using satellite imagery. This study can be used as basic data for deforestation in North Korea and Based on the detection results, it is necessary to protect and restore forest resources.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.129-141
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• 2023

Crop models have been used to predict yield under diverse environmental and cultivation conditions, which can be used to support decisions on the management of forage crop. Cultivar parameters are one of required inputs to crop models in order to represent genetic properties for a given forage cultivar. The objectives of this study were to compare calibration and ensemble approaches in order to minimize the uncertainty of crop yield estimates using the SIMPLE crop model. Cultivar parameters were calibrated using Log-likelihood (LL) and Generic Composite Similarity Measure (GCSM) as an objective function for Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm. In total, 20 sets of cultivar parameters were generated for each method. Two types of ensemble approach. First type of ensemble approach was the average of model outputs (E_em), using individual parameters. The second ensemble approach was model output (E_pm) of cultivar parameter obtained by averaging given 20 sets of parameters. Comparison was done for each cultivar and for each error calculation methods. 'Jowoo' and 'Yeongwoo', which are forage rice cultivars used in Korea, were subject to the parameter calibration. Yield data were obtained from experiment fields at Suwon, Jeonju, Naju and I ksan. Data for 2013, 2014 and 2016 were used for parameter calibration. For validation, yield data reported from 2016 to 2018 at Suwon was used. Initial calibration indicated that genetic coefficients obtained by LL were distributed in a narrower range than coefficients obtained by GCSM. A two-sample t-test was performed to compare between different methods of ensemble approaches and no significant difference was found between them. Uncertainty of GCSM can be neutralized by adjusting the acceptance probability. The other ensemble method (E_pm) indicates that the uncertainty can be reduced with less computation using ensemble approach.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.85-109
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• 2018

Recommender system recommends the items expected to be purchased by a customer in the future according to his or her previous purchase behaviors. It has been served as a tool for realizing one-to-one personalization for an e-commerce service company. Traditional recommender systems, especially the recommender systems based on collaborative filtering (CF), which is the most popular recommendation algorithm in both academy and industry, are designed to generate the items list for recommendation by using 'overall rating' - a single criterion. However, it has critical limitations in understanding the customers' preferences in detail. Recently, to mitigate these limitations, some leading e-commerce companies have begun to get feedback from their customers in a form of 'multicritera ratings'. Multicriteria ratings enable the companies to understand their customers' preferences from the multidimensional viewpoints. Moreover, it is easy to handle and analyze the multidimensional ratings because they are quantitative. But, the recommendation using multicritera ratings also has limitation that it may omit detail information on a user's preference because it only considers three-to-five predetermined criteria in most cases. Under this background, this study proposes a novel hybrid recommendation system, which selectively uses the results from 'traditional CF' and 'CF using multicriteria ratings'. Our proposed system is based on the premise that some people have holistic preference scheme, whereas others have composite preference scheme. Thus, our system is designed to use traditional CF using overall rating for the users with holistic preference, and to use CF using multicriteria ratings for the users with composite preference. To validate the usefulness of the proposed system, we applied it to a real-world dataset regarding the recommendation for POI (point-of-interests). Providing personalized POI recommendation is getting more attentions as the popularity of the location-based services such as Yelp and Foursquare increases. The dataset was collected from university students via a Web-based online survey system. Using the survey system, we collected the overall ratings as well as the ratings for each criterion for 48 POIs that are located near K university in Seoul, South Korea. The criteria include 'food or taste', 'price' and 'service or mood'. As a result, we obtain 2,878 valid ratings from 112 users. Among 48 items, 38 items (80%) are used as training dataset, and the remaining 10 items (20%) are used as validation dataset. To examine the effectiveness of the proposed system (i.e. hybrid selective model), we compared its performance to the performances of two comparison models - the traditional CF and the CF with multicriteria ratings. The performances of recommender systems were evaluated by using two metrics - average MAE(mean absolute error) and precision-in-top-N. Precision-in-top-N represents the percentage of truly high overall ratings among those that the model predicted would be the N most relevant items for each user. The experimental system was developed using Microsoft Visual Basic for Applications (VBA). The experimental results showed that our proposed system (avg. MAE = 0.584) outperformed traditional CF (avg. MAE = 0.591) as well as multicriteria CF (avg. AVE = 0.608). We also found that multicriteria CF showed worse performance compared to traditional CF in our data set, which is contradictory to the results in the most previous studies. This result supports the premise of our study that people have two different types of preference schemes - holistic and composite. Besides MAE, the proposed system outperformed all the comparison models in precision-in-top-3, precision-in-top-5, and precision-in-top-7. The results from the paired samples t-test presented that our proposed system outperformed traditional CF with 10% statistical significance level, and multicriteria CF with 1% statistical significance level from the perspective of average MAE. The proposed system sheds light on how to understand and utilize user's preference schemes in recommender systems domain.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.93-102
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• 2003

An optimal design method for hybrid structural control system of building structures subject to earthquake excitation is presented in this paper. Designing a hybrid structural control system may be defined as a process that optimizes the capacities and configuration of passive and active control systems as well as structural members. The optimal design proceeds by formulating the optimization problem via a multi-stage goal programming technique and, then, by finding reasonable solution to the optimization problem by means of a goal-updating genetic algorithm. In the multi-stage goal programming, design targets(or goals) are at first selected too correspond too several stages and the objective function is th n defined as the sum of the normalized distances between these design goals and each of the physical values, that is, the inter-story drifts and the capacities of the control system. Finally, the goal-updating genetic algorithm searches for optimal solutions satisfying each stage of design goals and, if a solution exists, the levels of design goals are consecutively updated to approach the global optimal solution closest too the higher level of desired goals. The process of the integrated optimization design is illustrated by a numerical simulation of a nine-story building structure subject to earthquake excitation. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by comparing the optimally designed results with those of a hybrid structural control system where structural members, passive and active control systems are uniformly distributed.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.30 no.1
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• pp.137-147
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• 2014

We proposed and verified the methods to maintain data qualities as well as to reduce data volume for the Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI), the world's first ocean color sensor operated in geostationary orbit. For the GOCI level-2 data, 92.9% of data volume could be saved by only the data compression. For the GOCI level-1 data, however, just 20.7% of data volume could be saved by the data compression therefore another approach was required. First, we found the optimized number of bits per a pixel for the GOCI level-1 data from an idea that the quantization bit for the GOCI (i.e. 12 bit) was less than the number of bits per a pixel for the GOCI level-1 data (i.e. 32 bit). Experiments were conducted using the $R^2$ and the Modulation Transfer Function (MTF). It was quantitatively revealed that the data qualities were maintained although the number of bits per a pixel was reduced to 14. Also, we performed network simulations using the Network Simulator 2 (Ns2). The result showed that 57.7% of the end-toend delay for a GOCI level-1 data was saved when the number of bits per a pixel was reduced to 14 and 92.5% of the end-to-end delay for a GOCI level-2 data was saved when 92.9% of the data size was reduced due to the compression.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.18 no.6
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• pp.63-75
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• 2000

Stated Preference (SP) data has been regarded as more useful than Revealed Preference (RP) data, because researchers can investigate the respondents\` Preference and attitude for a traffic condition or a new traffic system by using the SP data. However, the SP data has two bias: the first one is the bias inherent in SP data and the latter one is the attrition bias in SP panel data. If the biases do not corrected, the choice model using SP data may predict a erroneous future demand. In this Paper, six route choice models are constructed to deal with the SP biases, and. these six models are classified into cross-sectional models (model I∼IH) and dynamic models (model IV∼VI) From the six models. some remarkable results are obtained. The cross-sectional model that incorporate RP choice results of responders with SP cross-sectional model can correct the biases inherent in SP data, and also the dynamic models can consider the temporal variations of the effectiveness of state dependence in SP responses by assuming a simple exponential function of the state dependence. WESML method that use the estimated attrition probability is also adopted to correct the attrition bias in SP Panel data. The results can be contributed to the dynamic modeling of SP Panel data and also useful to predict more exact demand.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.7 s.78
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• pp.131-137
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• 2004

Conventional traffic signal optimization models assume that green intervals for pedestrian crossings are given as exogenous inputs such as minimum green intervals for straight-ahead movements. As the result, in reality, the green intervals of traffic movements may not distribute adequately by the volume/saturation-flow of them. In this paper, we proposed signal optimization models formulated in BMILP to integrate pedestrian crossings into traffic movements under under-saturated traffic flow. The model simultaneously optimizes traffic and pedestrian movements to minimize weighted queues of primary queues during red interval and secondary queues during queue clearance time. A set of linear objective function and constraints set up to ensure the conditions with respect to pedestrian and traffic maneuvers. Numerical examples are given by pedestrian green intervals and the number of pedestrian crossings located at an arm. Optimization results illustrated that pedestrian green intervals using proposed models are greater than those using TRANSYT-7F, but opposite in the ratios of pedestrian green intervals to the cycle lengths. The simulation results show that proposed models are superior to TRANSYT-7F in reducing delay, where the longer the pedestrian green interval the greater the effect.

• The KIPS Transactions:PartA
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• v.15A no.1
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• pp.45-52
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• 2008

In this paper we define a vulnerable code to symbolic link exploit and propose a technique to detect this using program analysis. The existing methods to solve symbolic link exploit is for protecting it, on accessing a temporary file they should perform an investigation whether the file is attacked by symbolic link exploit. If programmers miss the investigation, the program may be revealed to symbolic link exploit. Because our technique detects all the vulnerable codes to symbolic link exploit, it helps programmers keep the program safety. Our technique add two type qualifiers to the existing type system to analyze vulnerable codes to symbolic link exploit, it detects the vulnerable codes using type checking including the added type qualifiers. Our technique detects all the vulnerable codes to symbolic link exploit automatically, it has the advantage of saving costs of modifying and of overviewing all codes because programmers apply the methods protecting symbolic link exploit to only the detected codes as vulnerable. We experiment our analyzer with widely used programs. In our experiments only a portion of all the function fopen() is analyzed as the vulnerabilities to symbolic link exploit. It shows that our technique is useful to diminish modifying codes.