• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.1-23
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• 2014

Market forecasting aims to estimate the sales volume of a product or service that is sold to consumers for a specific selling period. From the perspective of the enterprise, accurate market forecasting assists in determining the timing of new product introduction, product design, and establishing production plans and marketing strategies that enable a more efficient decision-making process. Moreover, accurate market forecasting enables governments to efficiently establish a national budget organization. This study aims to generate a market growth curve for ICT (information and communication technology) goods using past time series data; categorize products showing similar growth patterns; understand markets in the industry; and forecast the future outlook of such products. This study suggests the useful and meaningful process (or methodology) to identify the market growth pattern with quantitative growth model and data mining algorithm. The study employs the following methodology. At the first stage, past time series data are collected based on the target products or services of categorized industry. The data, such as the volume of sales and domestic consumption for a specific product or service, are collected from the relevant government ministry, the National Statistical Office, and other relevant government organizations. For collected data that may not be analyzed due to the lack of past data and the alteration of code names, data pre-processing work should be performed. At the second stage of this process, an optimal model for market forecasting should be selected. This model can be varied on the basis of the characteristics of each categorized industry. As this study is focused on the ICT industry, which has more frequent new technology appearances resulting in changes of the market structure, Logistic model, Gompertz model, and Bass model are selected. A hybrid model that combines different models can also be considered. The hybrid model considered for use in this study analyzes the size of the market potential through the Logistic and Gompertz models, and then the figures are used for the Bass model. The third stage of this process is to evaluate which model most accurately explains the data. In order to do this, the parameter should be estimated on the basis of the collected past time series data to generate the models' predictive value and calculate the root-mean squared error (RMSE). The model that shows the lowest average RMSE value for every product type is considered as the best model. At the fourth stage of this process, based on the estimated parameter value generated by the best model, a market growth pattern map is constructed with self-organizing map algorithm. A self-organizing map is learning with market pattern parameters for all products or services as input data, and the products or services are organized into an $N{\times}N$ map. The number of clusters increase from 2 to M, depending on the characteristics of the nodes on the map. The clusters are divided into zones, and the clusters with the ability to provide the most meaningful explanation are selected. Based on the final selection of clusters, the boundaries between the nodes are selected and, ultimately, the market growth pattern map is completed. The last step is to determine the final characteristics of the clusters as well as the market growth curve. The average of the market growth pattern parameters in the clusters is taken to be a representative figure. Using this figure, a growth curve is drawn for each cluster, and their characteristics are analyzed. Also, taking into consideration the product types in each cluster, their characteristics can be qualitatively generated. We expect that the process and system that this paper suggests can be used as a tool for forecasting demand in the ICT and other industries.

• Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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• v.21 no.2
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• pp.45-67
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• 2004

The purposes of this study are to compare and analyze the evaluation indicators for selection of journal suggested by scholars and organizations and to prepare theoretical background for the ideal model to meet opposing paradigms of collection management in academic libraries. A web survey method was employed to investigate applications of various selection criteria (27 for printed and 37 for electronic academic Journal) from the top 40 academic libraries in Korea. In addition, data were analysed statistically using factor analysis, t-test, Analysis of Variance(ANOVA), and Spearman's Rank Oder Correlation. The mean ranking for 9 evaluation indicators for printed were as follows: subscribing volumes per departments, degree of use, selection authority, electronic/print bundle, ISI impact factor, Internationality and reputation, costs for subscription, ILL ＆ DDS, space considerations for printed materials. But, 11 evaluation indicators for electronic were as follows : costs for subscription, accessibility, electronic/print bundle, consortia, selection authority, access expandability, subscribing volumes per departments, scholarly features of the university, ISI impact factor, ILL ＆ DDS, internationality and reputations.

• Journal of Korean Association for Spatial Structures
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• v.7 no.5
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• pp.49-56
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• 2007

Passive, active and semi-active control system are classified in floor vibration control system by providing control force. This paper discusses the application of a new class of semi-active TMD(MR-TMD), for the reduction or floor vibrations due to machine and human movements. This MR-TMD consists of passive TMD and MR damper. Here, displacement-based control methods are used to assess the performance of this STMD(MR-TMD). And, skyhook and the groundhook algorithm are applied to a single degree of freedom system representative of building floors. If the allowed operation space of tuned mass is limited in MR-TMD system, skyhook algorithm is more efficient than groundhook algorithm for floor vibration control. Hybrid control method demonstrates the efficiency of MR-TMD with respect to another methods.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.13 no.5 s.57
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• pp.121-132
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• 2009

This paper introduces an experimental verification and a field application of the proposed technique using the combination of FEM and HGA about the loss prestressing force of an exteranl tendon by above same authors. The vibration tests have been conducted by using a laboratory models and the externally prestressed tendon at the field and the natural frequencies are extracted from the vibration tests. The proposed technique based on the extracted natural frequencies is applied. It is seen that the errors in the tension and lost prestressing force by proposed technique are about 4% from a laboratory model test. For the model verification at field, exact modeling has beem made with Rayleigh damping. It is seen that the error in the tension by proposed technique is less than 1% and the estimated lost prestressing force converges less than the exact value.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.26 no.12
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• pp.29-43
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• 2021

In this paper, a new approach to solve the constrained dynamic programming is proposed by using the constraint programming. While the conventional dynamic programming scheme has the state space augmented with states on constraints, this approach, without state augmentation, represents states of constraints as domains in a contraining programming solver. It has a hybrid computational mechanism in its computation by combining solving the Bellman equation in the dynamic programming framework and exploiting the propagation and inference methods of the constraint programming. In order to portray the differences of the two approaches, this paper solves a simple version of the long-term car rental financing problem. In the conventional scheme, data structures for state on constraints are designed, and a simple inference borrowed from the constraint programming is used to the reduction of violation of constraints because no inference risks failure of a solution. In the hybrid approach, the architecture of interface of the dynamic programming solution method and the constraint programming solution method is shown. It finally discusses the advantages of the proposed method with the conventional method.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.336-336
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• 2021

기후변화와 도시화로 인한 집중 호우와 불투수층 증가로 도시 홍수의 발생 빈도와 규모가 증가하고 있다. 인적, 물적 자원이 집중되어 있는 도시유역의 특성상 침수가 발생하면 이로 인한 직접적 피해 뿐만 아니라 사회경제적 2차 피해를 발생한다. 도시 홍수로 인한 피해를 줄이고 도시의 재해에 대한 회복력을 키우기 위해서는 관측과 더불어 정확한 모의 기술이 중요하다. 한편, 격자 기반 도시 홍수 모의는 집중 호우에 따른 침수의 시공간적 발생 양상을 물리적으로 해석하는 방법으로, 지표수-우수관거 이중배제 통합 모의, 수치기법, 병렬컴퓨팅, 수질 연계 모의 등의 측면에서 지금까지 많은 발전이 이루어져 왔다. 최근들어 원격탐사 기술의 발달로 공간해상도 1미터 수준 혹은 그 이상의 초고해상도 지형자료가 많은 지역에서 대해 가용해지고 있으며, 도시 홍수 해석에 이와 같은 초고해상도 자료를 적용하기 위한 연구가 활발히 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 초고해상도 지형 및 토지 피복 자료의 공간해상도가 침수해석에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 도시침수의 두가지 주요 요인인 내수침수와 외수범람 중에서 극한 강우에 의한 내수침수해석 사례만을 주요 연구 범위로 한다. 초고해상도 입력자료의 격자기반 도수 해석 모형으로는 운동파 기반의 2차원 지표 흐름 해석 모형을 적용하고, 초고해상도 모의의 효율적 계산을 위해 하이브리드 병렬 컴퓨팅 기술을 이용한다. 초고해상도 입력자료 적용 사례 대비, 공간해상도 저하에 따라 침수 면적이나 깊이 등에서 어떤 변화가 있는지 정량적으로 검토한다. 또한, 강우의 강도 및 공간분포가 초고해상도 도시 홍수 해석에 미치는 영향에 대해서 분석한다. 모의 결과로부터 도시 홍수 해석시 거리 단위(street-level) 정확도의 재현을 위해 적정한 공간해상도를 분석하고, 초고해상도 도시 홍수 모의를 이용한 기후변화에 따른 극한 홍수의 도시지역 영향 분석 및 회복력 개선 관련 연구의 가능성에 대해 논의한다.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.10 no.5
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• pp.113-123
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• 2011

Recently, the global warming problem has arised around world, many nations has set up a various regulations for decreasing $CO_2$. In particular, $CO_2$ emissions reduction effect is very powerful in transport part, so there is a rising interest about development of green car, or electric vehicle in auto industry. For this reason, it is important to make a strategy for charging infra and forcast electric power demand, but it hasn't introduced about demand forecasting electric vehicle. Thus, this paper presents a demand forecasting for electric vehicles using choice based multigeneration diffusion model. In this paper, it estimates innovation coefficient, immitation coefficient in Bass model by using hybrid car market data and forecast electric vehicle market by year using potential demand market through SP(Stated Preference) experiment. Also, It facilitates more accurate demand forecasting electric vehicle market refelcting multigeneration diffusion model in accordance with attribute progress in development of electric vehicle. Through demand forecasting methodology in this paper, it can be utilized power supply and building a charging infra in the future.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.366-372
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• 2019

The PRISM model has been used to estimate precipitation in South Korea where observation data are readily available at a large number of weather station. However, it is likely that the PRISM model would result in relatively low reliability of precipitation estimates in North Korea where weather data are available at a relatively small number of weather stations. Alternatively, a hybrid method has been developed to estimate the precipitation distribution in area where availability of climate data is relatively low. In the hybrid method, Regression coefficients between the precipitation-terrain relationships are applied to a low-resolution precipitation map produced using the PRISM. In the present study, a hybrid approach was applied to North Korea for estimation of precipitation distribution at a high spatial resolution. At first, the precipitation distribution map was produced at a low-resolution (2,430m) using the PRISM model. Secondly, a deviation map was prepared calculating difference between altitudes of synoptic stations and virtual terrains produced using 270m-resolution digital elevation map (DEM). Lastly, another deviation map of precipitation was obtained from the maps of virtual precipitation produced using observation data from the synoptic weather stations and both synoptic and automated weather station (AWS), respectively. The regression equation between precipitation and terrain was determined using these deviation maps. The high resolution map of precipitation distribution was obtained applying the regression equation to the low-resolution map. It was found that the hybrid approach resulted in better representation of the effects of the terrain. The precipitation distribution map for the hybrid approach had similar spatial pattern to that for the existing method. It was estimated that the mean annual cumulative precipitation of entire territory of North Korea was 1,195mm with a standard deviation of 253mm.

• Korean Management Science Review
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.1-13
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• 2011

Hub-and-spoke transportation network is a powerful and useful network structure that takes full advantage of economies of scale on routes between hubs. In recent studies, the network structure is extended to hybrid hub-andspoke that allows direct transportation between spokes. In this study, we considered more extended network structure which is called hybrid multiple hub-and-spoke that has multiple hubs and allows direct transportation between spokes. We developed a mathematical optimization model for automotive service parts transportation planning under hybrid multiple hub-and-spoke network structure. The model suggests a long-term transportation route planning and a short-term vehicle assignment planning. The model is verified by simulation and validated in real world application to Hyundai Mobis automotive service parts transportation planning. From the simulation result, the model reduced the transportation cost about 24.7%, the total distance about 6.8% and the CO2 emissions about 8.8%. In real world application for 6 months from July to December 2010, the model reduced the transportation cost about 9.1% by changing the long-term transportation route without daily vehicle assignment planning.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.74-82
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• 2011

The Bass model is a cornerstone in diffusion theory which is used for forecasting demand of durables or new services. Three well-known estimation methods for parameters of the Bass model are Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE), Nonlinear Least Square (NLS). In this paper, a hybrid method incorporating OLS and NLS is presented and it's performance is analyzed and compared with OLS and NLS by using simulation data and empirical data. The results show that NLS has the best performance in terms of accuracy and our hybrid method has the best performance in terms of stability. Specifically, hybrid method has better performance with less data. This result means much in practical aspect because the avaliable data is little when a diffusion model is used for forecasting demand of a new product.