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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

A survey on the nutrient intake and food consumption of the students at the dormitories, College of Agriculture, Seoul National University (서울대학교(大學校) 농과대학(農科大學) 남녀(男女) 기숙사생(寄宿舍生)의 영양섭취(營養攝取) 조사(調査))

  • Mo, Su-Mi;Han, In-Kyu;Kim, Ze-Uook;Lee, Chun-Yung;Kim, Ho-Sik
    • Applied Biological Chemistry
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    • v.7
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    • pp.92-104
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    • 1966
  • For the purpose of the better dietary management and to empahsize of importance in nutrition education for 552 students at the dormitories, College of Agriculture, Seoul National University, the dietary survey was conducted for each consecutive seven days, from March 7th to 13th at the boy's dormitory, from March 14th to 20th at the girl's dormitory, respectively. In comparison the average caloric and nutrient intake per caput per day at the both, girl's and boy's dormitory with the recommended dietary allowances for age of 25, the intake of calories and all nutrients except riboflavin were over the allowances for the boy, while the caloric intake by the girl was considerablly below the allowance. But it is meant that only 150 calories was actually deficient in comparison with the figure of the average energy consumption determined for the girls at the dormitory of the Sook-myung Woman's University, whose pattern of living was quite similar to those of the girls at this college. Except iron and ascorbic acid, all other nutrients were deficient for the girls. The calories in the form of protein of a diet taken by the boy was 12.9% and that by the girl was 12.8%. Protein quality of the diet taken by boy scored 70 while that by the girl scored 79. NDp Cal% of the diet taken by the boy was 7 and that by the girl was figured out to be 8. Therefore, calculated reference protein taken by the boy was 55.8 grams and that by the girl was 36.9%. Though it is generally recommended that at least 1/3 of the protein should come from animal sources, it was apparent by this survey that providing 1/5 of the protein from animal sources with remaining part of high quality vegetable protein foods in the adequate mixed diet would give satisfactory results for both girl and boy students. This was clearly demonstrated by the recommended reference protein and NDp Cal% met. Significant difference between boys and girls in the average consumption of seasonings was found. In consumption per day of seasonings, boy used 1.5 grams of red pepper powder which means they used 15 times more of red pepper than girls did. Kochujang was used 13 grams by boy-students which was as high as 21 times of that of the girl. Total salt intake by the boy was 34 grams while the girl consummed 23 grams. It is obviously recognized that boys prefer more peppery and salty flavor than girls do. To reduce the amount of protein consummed and to improve the quality of protein food, increase of riboflavin rich food and increase of fat intake in place of grain intake are recommendable to the boy. For the girl's diet, consumption of grains, particularly more intake of barley mal· be recommendable to meet the B group of vitamins allowances as well as the caloric allowance. The use of more servings of yellow green vegetables is needed to the girl.

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A Thermal Time-Driven Dormancy Index as a Complementary Criterion for Grape Vine Freeze Risk Evaluation (포도 동해위험 판정기준으로서 온도시간 기반의 휴면심도 이용)

  • Kwon, Eun-Young;Jung, Jea-Eun;Chung, U-Ran;Lee, Seung-Jong;Song, Gi-Cheol;Choi, Dong-Geun;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2006
  • Regardless of the recent observed warmer winters in Korea, more freeze injuries and associated economic losses are reported in fruit industry than ever before. Existing freeze-frost forecasting systems employ only daily minimum temperature for judging the potential damage on dormant flowering buds but cannot accommodate potential biological responses such as short-term acclimation of plants to severe weather episodes as well as annual variation in climate. We introduce 'dormancy depth', in addition to daily minimum temperature, as a complementary criterion for judging the potential damage of freezing temperatures on dormant flowering buds of grape vines. Dormancy depth can be estimated by a phonology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature and is expected to make a reasonable proxy for physiological tolerance of buds to low temperature. Dormancy depth at a selected site was estimated for a climatological normal year by this model, and we found a close similarity in time course change pattern between the estimated dormancy depth and the known cold tolerance of fruit trees. Inter-annual and spatial variation in dormancy depth were identified by this method, showing the feasibility of using dormancy depth as a proxy indicator for tolerance to low temperature during the winter season. The model was applied to 10 vineyards which were recently damaged by a cold spell, and a temperature-dormancy depth-freeze injury relationship was formulated into an exponential-saturation model which can be used for judging freeze risk under a given set of temperature and dormancy depth. Based on this model and the expected lowest temperature with a 10-year recurrence interval, a freeze risk probability map was produced for Hwaseong County, Korea. The results seemed to explain why the vineyards in the warmer part of Hwaseong County have been hit by more freeBe damage than those in the cooler part of the county. A dormancy depth-minimum temperature dual engine freeze warning system was designed for vineyards in major production counties in Korea by combining the site-specific dormancy depth and minimum temperature forecasts with the freeze risk model. In this system, daily accumulation of thermal time since last fall leads to the dormancy state (depth) for today. The regional minimum temperature forecast for tomorrow by the Korea Meteorological Administration is converted to the site specific forecast at a 30m resolution. These data are input to the freeze risk model and the percent damage probability is calculated for each grid cell and mapped for the entire county. Similar approaches may be used to develop freeze warning systems for other deciduous fruit trees.

Investigation on a Way to Maximize the Productivity in Poultry Industry (양계산업에 있어서 생산성 향상방안에 대한 조사 연구)

  • 오세정
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.105-127
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    • 1989
  • Although poultry industry in Japan has been much developed in recent years, it still needs to be developed , compared with developed countries. Since the poultry market in Korea is expected to be opened in the near future it is necessary to maximize the Productivity to reduce the production costs and to develop the scientific, technologies and management organization systems for the improvement of the quality in poultry production. Followings ale the summary of poultry industry in Japan. 1. Poultry industry in Japan is almost specized and commercialized and its management system is : integrated, cooperative and developed to industrialized intensive style. Therefore, they have competitive power in the international poultry markets. 2. Average egg weight is 48-50g per day (Max. 54g) and feed requirement is 2. 1-2. 3. 3. The management organization system is specialized and farmers in small scale form complex and farmers in large scale are integrated.

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Physiological studies on the sudden wilting of JAPONICA/INDICA crossed rice varieties in Korea -I. The effects of plant nutritional status on the occurrence of sudden wilting (일(日). 인원연교잡(印遠緣交雜) 수도품종(水稻品種)의 급성위조증상(急性萎凋症狀) 발생(發生)에 관(關)한 영양생리학적(營養生理學的) 연구(硏究) -I. 수도(水稻)의 영양상태(營養狀態)가 급성위조증상(急性萎凋症狀) 발생(發生)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Kim, Yoo-Seob
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.316-338
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    • 1988
  • To identify the physiological phenomena on the sudden wilting of japonica/indica crossed varieties, Pot experiment was carried out under the heavy N application with various levels of potassium in Japan. The results obtained are as follows. 1. Sudden wilting was occurred in both varieties used, Yushin and Milyang 23. The former showed a higher degree than the latter. 2. Sudden wilting was occurred into two types, one at early ripening stage and the other at late ripening stage. The former type was found in the field with low potassium supply and the latter was seemed to be related to varietal wilting tolerence. 3. By the investigation of concerning the effective tillering rate and the change of dry weight of each organ at the heading stage, it was inferred that the growth status from young panicle formation stage to heading stage were related to sudden wilting tolerence. 4. Manganese content at heading stage, ratio of Fe/Mn and Fe. Fe/Mn in stern at late ripening stage and $K_2$ O/N ratio of stem at harvesting stage were recognized as the specific factors in connection with sudden wilting. Mn content in the sudden wilting rice plant was already in creased remarkably at heading stage. In relation to root age and absoption characteristics of Mn, the senility of root before heading stage was inferred as the cause of increase the value of Fe/Mn or Fe. Fe/Mn. 5. The $K_2$ O/N ratio of culm at harvesting stage was lower in upper node than lower node in relation to sudden wilting. And it was well accordance with the fact that the symptoms of sudden wilting proceeded from upper leaf to lower leaf. These phenomenon was different from the usual one that the effect of potassium deficiency was more remarkable in lower node than upper node. 6. All varieties which have a condition of potassium deficiency have a high degree of nitrogen content of leaves at heading stage and the $K_2$ O/N ratio of each organ was low, Especialy, $K_2$ O/N ratio is much lower in sheath and culm than leaves.

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STUDIES ON AVIAN VISCERAL LYMPHOMATOSIS I. THE INCREASED INCIDENSE AMONG CHICKEN FLOCKS AND PATHOLOGIC PICTURES (장기형임파종증(臟器型淋巴腫症)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究) 1. 계군(鷄群)에서의 임파종증(淋巴腫症)의 발생(發生) 및 병리학적소견(病理學的所見))

  • Kim, Uh Ho;Lim, Chang Hyeong
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Research
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.35-42
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    • 1964
  • 1). An nanlysis was made of 3,500 postmortem diagnoses for the three years 1961 through 1963 to determine whether there was any actual incidence of avian visceral lymphomntosis in the field. Chickens autopsied, which showed gross alterations were 7.6 percent or 266 cases. The diminished incidence of the disease in second and third years seemed due to decreased total numbers of chicken flocks year by year for the reason of difficult feed supply. 2). Because chickens autopsied in this study were not clearly known of their breeds and lines, no distinct data on the incidence in various breeds were made. Some exact breeds were in too small numbers to have any statistical significance. Inconceivably, no other types of avian leukosis than visceral lymphomatosis had been observed in any appreciable number in this analysis. 3). Pathologic analysis for affected organs was made grossly and microscopically. In the gross pictures, liver, spleen, kidney, ovary, and in some case, intestine principally showed lesions, but its manifestation was variable in different organs. In such organs, livers were affected more frequently, and spleens followed next. The organs were classified and arranged according to the gross alterations, and among their distribution one-half of livers were in diffuse variety; one-fourths in nodular; about one-sevenths in mixed; and granular variety followed next. In the spleen samples, two-thirds were in diffuse variety; one-fourths in nodular; and follicular only in three cases. Ovaries almost showed follicular lesions, the diffused were less than one-fifths of total specimens. Kidneys were occurred almost in diffuse variety. And intestine showed only nodular tomors. Microscopically, 42 cases of visceral lymphomatosis composed of 24 livers, 10 spleens, 3 kidneys, 3 intestines and 2 ovaries were examined. The tumor cells were lymphoid cells showing various component in size, shape and stainability. Mitotic figures were usually present. The proportion of the component cells were various in all cases and there were variations in the distribution of the tumor cells. The types of distribution were classified according to the standard proposed by Horiuchi as nodular, infiltrative and diffuse proliferation. In cases of visceral lymphomatosis of the livers and the spleens the types of infiltrative, nodular and diffuse proliferation could be classified. In the cases of the kidneys the types of diffuse and nodular proliferation were observed. In the cases of the intestines and the ovaries the types of infiltrative and diffuse proliferation were observed respectively.

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A Study of Guidelines for Genetic Counseling in Preimplantation Genetic Diagnosis (PGD) (착상전 유전진단을 위한 유전상담 현황과 지침개발을 위한 기초 연구)

  • Kim, Min-Jee;Lee, Hyoung-Song;Kang, Inn-Soo;Jeong, Seon-Yong;Kim, Hyon-J.
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.125-132
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Preimplantation genetic diagnosis (PGD), also known as embryo screening, is a pre-pregnancy technique used to identify genetic defects in embryos created through in vitro fertilization. PGD is considered a means of prenatal diagnosis of genetic abnormalities. PGD is used when one or both genetic parents has a known genetic abnormality; testing is performed on an embryo to determine if it also carries the genetic abnormality. The main advantage of PGD is the avoidance of selective pregnancy termination as it imparts a high likelihood that the baby will be free of the disease under consideration. The application of PGD to genetic practices, reproductive medicine, and genetic counseling is becoming the key component of fertility practice because of the need to develop a custom PGD design for each couple. Materials and Methods: In this study, a survey on the contents of genetic counseling in PGD was carried out via direct contact or e-mail with the patients and specialists who had experienced PGD during the three months from February to April 2010. Results: A total of 91 persons including 60 patients, 49 of whom had a chromosomal disorder and 11 of whom had a single gene disorder, and 31 PGD specialists responded to the survey. Analysis of the survey results revealed that all respondents were well aware of the importance of genetic counseling in all steps of PGD including planning, operation, and follow-up. The patient group responded that the possibility of unexpected results (51.7%), genetic risk assessment and recurrence risk (46.7%), the reproduction options (46.7%), the procedure and limitation of PGD (43.3%) and the information of PGD technology (35.0%) should be included as a genetic counseling information. In detail, 51.7% of patients wanted to be counseled for the possibility of unexpected results and the recurrence risk, while 46.7% wanted to know their reproduction options (46.7%). Approximately 96.7% of specialists replied that a non-M.D. genetic counselor is necessary for effective and systematic genetic counseling in PGD because it is difficult for physicians to offer satisfying information to patients due to lack of counseling time and specific knowledge of the disorders. Conclusions: The information from the survey provides important insight into the overall present situation of genetic counseling for PGD in Korea. The survey results demonstrated that there is a general awareness that genetic counseling is essential for PGD, suggesting that appropriate genetic counseling may play a important role in the success of PGD. The establishment of genetic counseling guidelines for PGD may contribute to better planning and management strategies for PGD.

A study on the strategies to lower technologist occupational exposure according to the performance form in PET scan procedure (PET 검사실 종사자의 업무 행위 별 방사선피폭 조사에 따른 피폭선량 저감화를 위한 연구)

  • Ko, Hyun Soo;Kim, Ho Sung;Nam-Kung, Chang Kyeoung;Yoon, Soon Sang;Song, Jae Hyuk;Ryu, Jae Kwang;Jung, Woo Young;Chang, Jung Chan
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 2015
  • Purpose For nuclear medicine technologists, it is difficult to stay away from or to separate from radiation sources comparing with workers who are using radiation generating devices. Nuclear medicine technologists work is recognized as an optimized way when they are familiar with work practices. The aims of this study are to measure radiation exposure of technologists working in PET and to evaluate the occupational radiation dose after implementation of strategies to lower exposure. Materials and Methods We divided into four working types by QC for PET, injection, scan and etc. in PET scan procedure. In QC of PET, we compared the radiation exposure controlling next to $^{68}Ge$ cylinder phantom directly to controlling the table in console room remotely. In injection, we compared the radiation exposure guiding patient in waiting room before injection to after injection. In scan procedure of PET, we compared the radiation exposure moving the table using the control button located next to the patient to moving the table using the control button located in the far distance. PERSONAL ELECTRONIC DOSEMETER (PED), Tracerco$^{TM}$ was used for measuring exposed radiation doses. Results The average doses of exposed radiation were $0.27{\pm}0.04{\mu}Sv$ when controlling the table directly and $0.13{\pm}0.14{\mu}Sv$ when controlling the table remotely while performing QC. The average doses of exposed radiation were $0.97{\pm}0.36{\mu}Sv$ when guiding patient after injection and $0.62{\pm}0.17{\mu}Sv$ when guiding patient before injection. The average doses of exposed radiation were $1.33{\pm}0.54{\mu}Sv$ when using the control button located next to the patient and $0.94{\pm}0.50{\mu}Sv$ when using the control button located in far distance while acquiring image. As a result, there were statistically significant differences(P<0.05). Conclusion: From this study, we found that how much radiation doses technologists are exposed on average at each step of PET procedure while working in PET center and how we can reduce the occupational radiation dose after implementation of strategies to lower exposure. And if we make effort to seek any other methods to reduce technologist occupational radiation, we can minimize and optimize exposed radiation doses in department of nuclear medicine. Conclusion From this study, we found that how much radiation doses technologists are exposed on average at each step of PET procedure while working in PET center and how we can reduce the occupational radiation dose after implementation of strategies to lower exposure. And if we make effort to seek any other methods to reduce technologist occupational radiation, we can minimize and optimize exposed radiation doses in department of nuclear medicine.

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Gender Differences in Pain in Cancer Patients (성별에 따른 암환자의 통증 차이)

  • Kim, Hyun-Sook;Lee, So-Woo;Yun, Young-Ho;Yu, Su-Jeong;Heo, Dae-Seog
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.14-25
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    • 2001
  • Purpose : To determine whether there exist gender differences in pain in Korean cancer patients and whether the depression and performance that are often expressed differently between men and women with cancer interact with pain. Method : The results of survey were collected from 140 in- and out-patients (78 male and 62 female) who had cancer treatment at one of the university hospital in Seoul for four months from February of 1999. The severity and interference of pain were examined with the self-reported survey based on Korean version of Brief Pain Inventory (BPI-K). Demographic and clinical information for all patient were compiled by reviewing their medical records, and the level of depression was examined with the Korean version of Beck Depression Inventory (BDI-K). Usual statistical methods, e.g., frequences, means and SDs were used to characterize the sample. The chi-square tests for categorical data and t-test for numerical data were used for group comparison. And the correlation between variables were performed using Pearson correlation coefficient. Resuts : 1) The mean scores of the worst pain for last 24-hours measured with the pain severity of BPI-K were 5.77 in male and 6.45 in female. The pain interference of BPI-K in men was in the order of mood (5.49), enjoy (5.36), and work (5.00), and in women were work (7.48), enjoy (7.16), and mood (6.53). 2) In pain severity, significant difference was found between men and women in the average pain for last 24-hours (t=-2.130, P=.035). In pain interference, significant difference was found between men and women in activity (t=-2.450, P=.015), mood (t=-2,321, P=.022), walk (t=-2.762, P=.007), work (t=-4.946, P=.000), relate (t=-2.595, P=.010), sleep (t=-2.071, P=.040), enjoy (t=-3.198, P=.001). 3) It was found that the items of pain and depression are significantly correlated in men but not in women. Men also exhibited higher correlation in the items of pain and performance status than women. Conclusions : Women report significantly greater average pain for last 24-hours and for all items of pain interference than men. Pain and depression are significantly correlated in men. The results of this study suggest that gender differences in pain should be considered for planning effective pain management program.

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Effect of Cellulose Derivatives to Reduce the Oil Uptake of Deep Fat Fried Batter of Pork Cutlet (셀룰로오스 유도체가 돈가스 튀김옷의 흡유량 감소에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Byung-Sook;Lee, Young-Eun
    • Korean journal of food and cookery science
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.488-495
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    • 2009
  • Pork cutlet is a favorite deep fat fried food item among Korean children, and an excellent protein-containing food, and as well as a simple and economical cuisine. However, the frying process adds a significant amount of calories. We added MC (Methylcellulose) and HPMC (Hydroxypropyl Methylcellulose) to the batter in an effort to reduce oil uptake in prepared pork cutlets. After additions of MC and HPMC at concentrations of 0.5, 1, and 1.5% respectively, we assessed the viscosity of batter, color after frying, the increases in moisture retention and oil uptake, and sensory characteristics, comparing each quality. The viscosity of batter with 0.5% HPMC added (w/w) was similar to that of the controls, but the viscosity of all the batter with added MC was so much higher that it was difficult to use the batter for coating at the same temperature, leading to a failure even to prepare a sample. After frying, the batter with added HPMC provided significantly less oil uptake and more moisture retention than the batter to which MC was added. Additionally, with regard to color and sensory characteristics, the pork cutlet with 0.5% added HPMC was superior to the other samples. According to these results, we concluded that when cellulose derivatives are added in order to reduce oil uptake and to raise the moisture retention of the batter of pork cutlet, HPMC is more useful in this regard than MC. Additionally, the batter with 0.5% HPMC added appears to be the best of the tested choices, for three reasons: first, the viscosity of the batter is similar to that of the controls; second, the taste is not greasy after frying as the result of the reduced oil uptake and higher moisture retention; and third, the sensory characteristics of this sample, such as, color, crispiness, and hardness were the best among samples.