• Title/Summary/Keyword: 폭발확률

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Development of Design Blast Load Model according to Probabilistic Explosion Risk in Industrial Facilities (플랜트 시설물의 확률론적 폭발 위험도에 따른 설계폭발하중 모델 개발)

  • Seung-Hoon Lee;Bo-Young Choi;Han-Soo Kim
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2024
  • This paper employs stochastic processing techniques to analyze explosion risks in plant facilities based on explosion return periods. Release probability is calculated using data from the Health and Safety Executive (HSE), along with annual leakage frequency per plant provided by DNV. Ignition probability, derived from various researchers' findings, is then considered to calculate the explosion return period based on the release quantity. The explosion risk is assessed by examining the volume, radius, and blast load of the vapor cloud, taking into account the calculated explosion return period. The reference distance for the design blast load model is determined by comparing and analyzing the vapor cloud radius according to the return period, historical vapor cloud explosion cases, and blast-resistant design guidelines. Utilizing the multi-energy method, the blast load range corresponding to the explosion return period is presented. The proposed return period serves as a standard for the design blast load model, established through a comparative analysis of vapor cloud explosion cases and blast-resistant design guidelines. The outcomes of this study contribute to the development of a performance-based blast-resistant design framework for plant facilities.

A study of dust explosion about stock feed (사료분진의 폭발특성에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Hyeon-Gyeong;Sa, Min-Hyeong;Lee, Hong-Ju;Kim, Yun-Seon;U, In-Seong
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 2010.11a
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    • pp.277-281
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    • 2010
  • 본 연구에서는 사료분진의 폭발 특성을 연구하여 분진에 의한 폭발사고 위험을 감소시키고 방지대책에 필요한 기초자료를 제공하기 위해 Hartman1)식 분진폭발장치를 사용하여 다양한 사료를 실험하였다. 실험결과로 사료농도가 폭발확률에 미치는 영향은 농도가 높을수록, 사료분진의 입경이 작을수록 폭발확률이 커지고 분진농도가 증가할수록 폭발압력이 증가하였으나 일정농도를 넘어서면 오히려 폭발압력이 감소하는 경향을 보였으며 불활성물질을 첨가할 경우에는 10%이상 첨가할 경우에 폭발억제 효과를 보였다.

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Explosion Characteristics of Bituminous Coal Dusts in Cement Manufacturing Process (시멘트 제조공정에서 유연탄 분진의 폭발특성)

  • Kim, Won-Hwai;Lee, Seung-Chul;Seung, Sam-Sun;Kim, Jin-Nam
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.257-263
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    • 2008
  • We have examined explosion characteristics of bituminous coal dusts in cement manufacturing process. In order to find the thermal properties, we investigated weight loss and ignition temperature of coal materials using TGA and DSC. Also specific surface area of dust was investigated. Dust explosion experiments with Hartman's dust explosion apparatus have been conducted by varying concentration and size of coal dust for explosion probability and lower limit explosion concentration. According to the results for thermal properties, there is a little change by dust size. However, the specific surface area of dust is increased by decreasing dust size. The explosion test results show that small size and increasing concentration of dusts make dust explosion easier. And we find that the lower limit explosion concentration of bituminous coal is $0.3mg/cm^3$ and the probability is 100% on $0.9mg/cm^3$ in 170/200 mesh used in cement manufacturing process.

An Evaluation of the Impact of Ammonium Nitrate Explosion Occurred in Beirut Port (베이루트항에서 발생한 질산암모늄 폭발에 의한 영향 평가)

  • Yong-Kyun Yoon
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2023
  • On August 4, 2020, 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored in a storage warehouse at the Port of Beirut exploded. This explosion is said to be the largest ammonium nitrate explosion ever. By applying the TNT equivalency method, TNT equivalent amount corresponding to the explosion energy of 2750 tons of ammonium nitrate was calculated, and it is found to be 856 tons. Overpressure and impulse were calculated in a range up to 3600 m from the blast using the Kingery-Bulmash explosion parameter calculator tool. As the distance from the explosion center increases, the overpressure and impulse decrease exponentially, but the overpressure decreases more significantly, showing that overpressure is more affected by distance than the impact. As a result of applying the damage criteria to evaluate the effects of overpressure and impulse on the structure, the critical distances at which partial collapse, major damage, and minor damage to the structure occur are found to be approximately 500, 800, and 2200 m from the center of the explosion, respectively. The probit function was applied to evaluate the probability of damage to structures and human body. The points where the probability of collapse, major damage, minor damage, and breakage of window-panes to structures are greater than 50% are found to be approximately 500, 810, 2200, and 3200 m, respectively. For people within 200 m from the center of the explosion, the probability of death due to lung damage is more than 99%, and the 50% probability of eardrum rupture is approximately 300 m. The points with a 100% probability of death due to skull rupture and whole body impact due to whole body displacement are evaluated to be 300 and 100 m, respectively.

Bayesian Network-based Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Multi-Hazard of Earthquake-Induced Fire and Explosion (베이지안 네트워크를 이용한 지진 유발 화재・폭발 복합재해 확률론적 안전성 평가)

  • Se-Hyeok Lee;Uichan Seok;Junho Song
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.37 no.3
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    • pp.205-216
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    • 2024
  • Recently, seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) methods have been developed for process plants, such as gas plants, oil refineries, and chemical plants. The framework originated from the PSA of nuclear power plants, which aims to assess the risk of reactor core damage. The original PSA method was modified to adopt the characteristics of a process plant whose purpose is continuous operation without shutdown. Therefore, a fault tree, whose top event is shut down, was constructed and transformed into a Bayesian Network (BN), a probabilistic graph model, for efficient risk-informed decision-making. In this research, the fault tree-based BN from the previous research is further developed to consider the multi-hazard of earthquake-induced fire and explosion (EQ-induced F&E). For this purpose, an event tree describing the occurrence of fire and explosion from a release is first constructed and transformed into a BN. And then, this BN is connected to the previous BN model developed for seismic PSA. A virtual plot plan of a gas plant is introduced as a basis for the construction of the specific EQ-induced F&E BN to test the proposed BN framework. The paper demonstrates the method through two examples of risk-informed decision-making. In particular, the second example verifies how the proposed method can establish a repair and retrofit strategy when a shutdown occurs in a process plant.

Effects of Explosion on Structures (폭발이 구조물에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.10-16
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    • 2019
  • Information on overpressure, positive phase duration, and impulse are required to assess the effects of shock waves or pressure waves on the structure. In this study, the overpressure and positive phase duration were determined by applying the Multi-Energy Method, which is found to be effective in analyzing the explosion of vapor clouds. Based on the total heat of combustion estimated in the cyclohexane vapor cloud explosion in the Nypro Ltd(UK), overpressure and positive phase duration at the distance of 40, 80, 120, 160, 200, 240, 280, 320, 360(m) from the source of explosion were evaluated. Overpressure was shown to decrease exponentially and positive phase duration increased almost linearly with distance. A probit function was used to assess the probability of damages for the structures at each distance using the overpressure and impact obtained at the above mentioned distances. The Analyses of probability of damages have shown that there is a high probability of collapse at distances within 120m, major damage to structures within 240m, and minor damage and breakage of window panes of structures occur over the entire distances.

Probabilistic Assesment of the Effects of Vapor Cloud Explosion on a Human Body (증기운 폭발이 인체에 미치는 영향에 대한 확률론적 평가)

  • Yoon, Yong-Kyun;Ju, Eun-Hye
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.52-65
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    • 2021
  • In this study, authors analyzed the vapor cloud explosion induced by propane leak at the PEMIX Terminal, which is the propane storage facility outside of Mexico City. TNT equivalence mass for the leaked 4750 kg propane was estimated to be 9398 kg. Blast parameters such as peak overpressure, positive phase duration, and impact at 40-400 (m) away from the center of the explosion were calculated by applying TNT Equivalency Method and Multi-Energy Method. The probability of damage due to lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, and whole-body displacement impact by applying the probit function obtained using blast parameters was evaluated. The peak overpressure obtained using Multi-Energy Method was found to be greater than the peak overpressure obtained by applying the TNT Equivalency Method at all distances considered, but it was evaluated that there was no significant difference from the points above 200 m. The peak overpressure obtained by Multi-Energy Method was computed to assess the extent of damage to the structure, and it was shown that structures within 100 m of the explosion center would collapse completely, and that the glasses of the structures 400 m away would be almost broken. The probability of death due to lung damage was shown to vary depending on a human body's position located in the propagating direction of shock wave, and if there is a reflecting surface in the immediate surroundings of a human body, the probability of death was estimated to be the greatest. The impact of shock wave on lung damage, eardrum rupture, head impact, and whole-body displacement impact was evaluated and found to affect whole-body impact < lung damage < eardrum rupture

A Study on the Damage of Flame caused by the Vapor Cloud Explosion in LPG Filling Station (LPG충전소에서 증기운폭발에 의한 화염의 피해에 관한 연구)

  • Leem, Sa-Hwan;Huh, Yong-Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2010
  • LPG(Liquefied Petroleum Gas) vehicles in metropolitan area are being applied to improve air quality and have been proven effective for the reduction of air pollutant. In addition, LPG demand is growing rapidly as an environmentally friendly energy source and its gas station is also increasing every year. Consequently, this study tries to find out the influence of flame caused by the VCE(Vapor Cloud Explosion) in filling station on the adjacent combustibles and people by simulating relevant quantity of TNT. In addition, the damage estimation was conducted by using API regulations. If the scale of the radiation heat is known by calculating the distance of flame influence from the explosion site, the damage from the site can be easily estimated. And the accident damage was estimated by applying the influence on the adjacent structures and people into the PROBIT model. According to the probit analyze, the spot which is 30m away from the flame has 100% of the damage probability by the first-degree burn, 99.2% of the damage probability by the second-degree burn and 93.4% of the death probability by the fire.

A Study on Actuation Probability of Underwater Weapon Based on Magnetic Field (Magnetic Field 기반 수중무기체계 발화확률에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Byeong-Seon;Hong, Sung-Pyo;Kim, Young-Kil
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.17 no.5
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    • pp.1253-1258
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    • 2013
  • This Paper deals with detection and defense methods for underwater weapons because there are so many dangers of underwater weapons not only in the war period but also in the peace time. Underwater mines are the representative strategic arms. The sensors and target detection methods, threat elimination method of mines included in this paper. Among the various sensors of mine, we use the magnetometor for target detection method in the simulation and execute the analysis of magnetic field of detected target ships. It will be also provided that effectiveness of target detection, sweeping method of mine, tactics of mine planning and mine sweeping and so on.

Analysis of Low-frequency Reverberation Inshallow Water (천해에서의 저주파 잔향음 분석)

  • 박길선;나정열;최지웅;오선택;박정수
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.94-100
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    • 2001
  • In October 1997, low-frequency reverberation was measured at an experimental site off the west coast of the Jeju island using the explosive charge, Signals Underwater Sound (SUS). Received signals were separated into the noise, the reflection, and the scattering region, and then were analyzed for the spectral and statistical characteristics of each region. In the analysis of the spectrum we verified that each region had a unique frequency band and statistical characteristics as well. The results of this analysis showed that the real and imaginary portions were shown to be both normal distributions in each frequency bin. The reverberation envelope had a Rayleigh distribution and the phase had a uniform distribution.

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