• Title/Summary/Keyword: 평균 절대치 오차

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Building a Traffic Accident Frequency Prediction Model at Unsignalized Intersections in Urban Areas by Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (적응 뉴로-퍼지를 이용한 도시부 비신호교차로 교통사고예측모형 구축)

  • Kim, Kyung Whan;Kang, Jung Hyun;Kang, Jong Ho
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.32 no.2D
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    • pp.137-145
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    • 2012
  • According to the National Police Agency, the total number of traffic accidents which occurred in 2010 was 226,878. Intersection accidents accounts for 44.8%, the largest portion of the entire traffic accidents. An research on the signalized intersection is constantly made, while an research on the unsignalized intersection is yet insufficient. This study selected traffic volume, road width, and sight distance as the input variables which affect unsignalized intersection accidents, and number of accidents as the output variable to build a model using ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System). The forecast performance of this model is evaluated by comparing the actual measurement value with the forecasted value. The compatibility is evaluated by R2, the coefficient of determination, along with Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE), the indicators which represent the degree of error and distribution. The result shows that the $R^2$ is 0.9817, while MAE and MSE are 0.4773 and 0.3037 respectively, which means that the explanatory power of the model is quite decent. This study is expected to provide the basic data for establishment of safety measure for unsignalized intersection and the improvement of traffic accidents.

Characteristics of Mass Transport Depending on the Feature of Tidal Creek at Han River Estuary, Gyeong-gi Bay, South Korea (경기만 염하수로에서의 비정규 격자 수치모델링을 통한 조간대 조수로의 고려에 따른 Mass Transport 특성)

  • Kim, Minha;Woo, Seung-Buhm
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.41-51
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    • 2013
  • The tidal creek dependent mass transport characteristic in Gyeong-Gi Bay (west coast of Korea) was studied using field measured data and numerical model. Gyeong-Gi Bay consists of 3 main tidal channels and contains a well-developed vast tidal flat. This region is famous for its large tidal difference and strong current. We aim to study the effect of tidal creek in the tidal flat on the mass exchange between the estuary and the ocean. For numerical application, the application of unstructured grid feature is essential, since the tidal creek has complicated shape and form. For this purpose, the FVCOM is applied to the study area and simulation is performed for 2 different cases. In case A, geographic characteristics of the tidal creek is ignored in the numerical grid and in case B, the tidal creek are constructed using unstructured grid. And these 2 cases are compared with the field measured cross-channel mass transport data. The cross-channel mass transport at the Yeomha waterway mouth and Incheon harbor was measured in June, 9~10 (Spring tide) and 17~18 (Neap tide), 2009. CTD casting and ADCP cross-channel transect was conducted 13 times in one tidal cycle. The observation data analysis results showed that mass transport has characteristic of the ebb dominance Line 1 (Yeomha waterway mouth), on the other hand, a flood dominant characteristic is shown in Line 2 (Incheon harbor front). By comparing the numerical model (case A & B) with observation data, we found that the case B results show much better agreement with measurement data than case A. It is showed that the geographic feature of tidal creek should be considered in grid design of numerical model in order to understand the mass transport characteristics over large tidal flat area.

Comparison of realized volatilities reflecting overnight returns (장외시간 수익률을 반영한 실현변동성 추정치들의 비교)

  • Cho, Soojin;Kim, Doyeon;Shin, Dong Wan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.85-98
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    • 2016
  • This study makes an empirical comparison of various realized volatilities (RVs) in terms of overnight returns. In financial asset markets, during overnight or holidays, no or few trading data are available causing a difficulty in computing RVs for a whole span of a day. A review will be made on several RVs reflecting overnight return variations. The comparison is made for forecast accuracies of several RVs for some financial assets: the US S&P500 index, the US NASDAQ index, the KOSPI (Korean Stock Price Index), and the foreign exchange rate of the Korea won relative to the US dollar. The RV of a day is compared with the square of the next day log-return, which is a proxy for the integrated volatility of the day. The comparison is made by investigating the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Statistical inference of MAE and RMSE is made by applying the model confidence set (MCS) approach and the Diebold-Mariano test. For the three index data, a specific RV emerges as the best one, which addresses overnight return variations by inflating daytime RV.

Hybrid Preference Prediction Technique Using Weighting based Data Reliability for Collaborative Filtering Recommendation System (협업 필터링 추천 시스템을 위한 데이터 신뢰도 기반 가중치를 이용한 하이브리드 선호도 예측 기법)

  • Lee, O-Joun;Baek, Yeong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.61-69
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    • 2014
  • Collaborative filtering recommendation creates similar item subset or similar user subset based on user preference about items and predict user preference to particular item by using them. Thus, if preference matrix has low density, reliability of recommendation will be sharply decreased. To solve these problems we suggest Hybrid Preference Prediction Technique Using Weighting based Data Reliability. Preference prediction is carried out by creating similar item subset and similar user subset and predicting user preference by each subset and merging each predictive value by weighting point applying model condition. According to this technique, we can increase accuracy of user preference prediction and implement recommendation system which can provide highly reliable recommendation when density of preference matrix is low. Efficiency of this system is verified by Mean Absolute Error. Proposed technique shows average 21.7% improvement than Hao Ji's technique when preference matrix sparsity is more than 84% through experiment.

Analysis of detected anomalies in VOC reduction facilities using deep learning

  • Min-Ji Son;Myung Ho Kim
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.13-20
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    • 2023
  • In this paper, the actual data of VOC reduction facilities was analyzed through a model that detects and predicts data anomalies. Using the USAD model, which shows stable performance in the field of anomaly detection, anomalies in real-time data are detected and sensors that cause anomalies are searched. In addition, we propose a method of predicting and warning, when abnormalities that time will occur by predicting future outliers with an auto-regressive model. The experiment was conducted with the actual data of the VOC reduction facility, and the anomaly detection test results showed high detection rates with precision, recall, and F1-score of 98.54%, 89.08%, and 93.57%, respectively. As a result, averaging of the precision, recall, and F1-score for 8 sensors of detection rates were 99.64%, 99.37%, and 99.63%. In addition, the Hamming loss obtained to confirm the validity of the detection experiment for each sensor was 0.0058, showing stable performance. And the abnormal prediction test result showed stable performance with an average absolute error of 0.0902.

Determination of Optimal Unit Hydrographs and Infultration Rate Functions from Single Rainfall-Runoff Event (단순 강우-유출 사상으로부터 최적단위도와 침투율의 결정)

  • An, Tae-Jin;Ryu, Hui-Jeong;Jeong, Gwang-Geun;Sim, Myeong-Pil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.365-374
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    • 2000
  • This paper is to present the determination of the optimal Joss rate parameters and urnt bydrographs from the observed single rainfall-runoff event using optimization models coupled with a stochastic technique for the global solution. Two kinds of the linear program models are formulated to derive the optimal unit hydrographs and loss rate parameters for gaged basins; one mimmizes the summation of the absolute residual between predlCted and observed runoff ordinates and the other, the maximum absolute residuaL Multistart algorithm which is one or stochastic techniques for the global optimum is adopted to perturb the parameters of the loss rate equations. Multistart efficiently searches the feasIble region to identify the global optimlUll for loss rate parameters, which yields the optimal loss rate parameters and unit hydrograph for Kostiakov's, Plulip's, and Horton's equation. The unique unit hydrograph ordinates for a gIven rainfall-runoff event iS exclusrvely obtained WIth $\Phi$ index, but unit hydrograph ordinates depend upon the parameters [or each loss rate equations. The parameters of Green-Ampt's are determined through a trial and error method. In this paper the single rainfall-nmoff event observed from a watershed is considered to test the proposed method. The optimal unit hydrograph herein found has smaller deviations than the ones reported previously by other researchers.

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The Comparison of Absolute Dose due to Differences of Measurement Condition and Calibration Protocols for Photon Beams (6MV 광자선에서 측정 조건의 변화와 측정법의 차이에 의한 절대 선량값의 비교)

  • 김회남;박성용;서태석;권수일;윤세철
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.87-102
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    • 1997
  • The absolute absorbed dose can be determined according to the measurement conditions; measurement material, detector, energy and calibration protocols. The purpose of this study is to compare the absolute absorbed dose due to the differences of measurement condition and calibration protocols for photon beams. Dosimetric measurements were performed with a farmer type PTW and NEL ionization chambers in water, solid water, and polystyrene phantoms using 6MV photon beams from Siemens linear accelerator. Measurements were made along the central axis of 10cm $\times$ 10cm field size for constant target to surface distance of 100cm for water, solid water and polystyrene phantom. Theoretical absorbed dose intercomparisons between TG21 and IAEA protocol were performed for various measurement combinations of phantom, ion chamber, and electrometer. There were no significant differences of absorbed dose value between TG21 and IAEA protocol. The differences between two protocols are within 1% while the average value of IAEA protocol was 0.5% smaller than TG21 protocol. For the purpose of comparison, all the relative absorbed dose were nomalized to NEL ion chamber with Keithley electrometer and water phantom, The average differences are within 1%, but individual discrepancies are in the range of - 2.5% to 1.2% depending upon the choice of measurement combination. The largest discrepancy of - 2.5% was observed when NEL ion chamber with Keithley electrometer is used in solid water phantom. The main cause for this discrepancy is due to the use of same parameters of stopping power, absorption coeficient, etc. as used in water phantom. It should be mentioned that the solid water phantom is not recommended for absolute dose calibration as the alternative of water, since absorbed dose show some dependency on phantom material other than water. In conclusion, the trend of variation was not much dependent on calibration protocol. However, it shows that absorbed dose could be affected by phantom material other than water.

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Commissioning Experience of Tri-Cobalt-60 MRI-guided Radiation Therapy System (자기공명영상유도 Co-60 기반 방사선치료기기의 커미셔닝 경험)

  • Park, Jong Min;Park, So-Yeon;Wu, Hong-Gyun;Kim, Jung-in
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2015
  • The aim of this study is to present commissioning results of the ViewRay system. We verified safety functions of the ViewRay system. For imaging system, we acquired signal to noise ratio (SNR) and image uniformity. In addition, we checked spatial integrity of the image. Couch movement accuracy and coincidence of isocenters (radiation therapy system, imaging system and virtual isocneter) was verified. Accuracy of MLC positioing was checked. We performed reference dosimetry according to American Association of Physicists in Medicine (AAPM) Task Group 51 (TG-51) in water phantom for head 1 and 3. The deviations between measurements and calculation of percent depth dose (PDD) and output factor were evaluated. Finally, we performed gamma evaluations with a total of 8 IMRT plans as an end-to-end (E2E) test of the system. Every safety system of ViewRay operated properly. The values of SNR and Uniformity met the tolerance level. Every point within 10 cm and 17.5 cm radii about the isocenter showed deviations less than 1 mm and 2 mm, respectively. The average couch movement errors in transverse (x), longitudinal (y) and vertical (z) directions were 0.2 mm, 0.1 mm and 0.2 mm, respectively. The deviations between radiation isocenter and virtual isocenter in x, y and z directions were 0 mm, 0 mm and 0.3 mm, respectively. Those between virtual isocenter and imaging isocenter were 0.6 mm, 0.5 mm and 0.2 mm, respectively. The average MLC positioning errors were less than 0.6 mm. The deviations of output, PDDs between mesured vs. BJR supplement 25, PDDs between measured and calculated and output factors of each head were less than 0.5%, 1%, 1% and 2%, respectively. For E2E test, average gamma passing rate with 3%/3 mm criterion was $99.9%{\pm}0.1%$.

Measurement and Prediction of Autoignition Temperature (AIT) and Ignition Delay Time of n-Pentanol and p-Xylene Mixture (n-Pentanol p-Xylene 과 혼합물의 최소자연발화온도와 발화지연시간의 측정 및 예측)

  • Ha, Dong-Myeong
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.1-6
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    • 2017
  • The fire and explosion properties of combustible materials are necessary for the safe handling, storage, transportation and disposal. Typical combustion characteristics for process safety include auto ignition temperature(AIT). The AIT is an important index for the safe handling of combustible liquids. The AIT is the lowest temperature at which the material will spontaneously ignite. In this study, the AITs and ignition delay times of n-pentanol and p-xylene mixture were measured by using ASTM E659 apparatus. The AITs of n-pentanol and p-xylene which constituted binary system were $285^{\circ}C$ and $557^{\circ}C$, respectively. The experimental AITs and ignition delay times of n-pentanol and p-xylene mixture were a good agreement with the calculated AITs and ignition delay times by the proposed equations with a few A.A.D. (average absolute deviation). Therefore, it is possible to estimate the AITs and ignition delay times in other compositions of n-pentanol and p-xylene mixture by using the predictive equations which presented in this study.

Fluctuations and Time Series Forecasting of Sea Surface Temperature at Yeosu Coast in Korea (여수연안 표면수온의 변동 특성과 시계열적 예측)

  • Seong, Ki-Tack;Choi, Yang-Ho;Koo, Jun Ho;Jeon, Sang-Back
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.122-130
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    • 2014
  • Seasonal variations and long term linear trends of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) at Yeosu Coast ($127^{\circ}37.73^{\prime}E$, $34^{\circ}37.60^{\prime}N$) in Korea were studied performing the harmonic analysis and the regression analysis of the monthly mean SST data of 46 years (1965-2010) collected by the Fisheries Research and Development Institute in Korea. The mean SST and the amplitude of annual SST variation show $15.6^{\circ}C$ and $9.0^{\circ}C$ respectively. The phase of annual SST variation is $236^{\circ}$. The maximum SST at Yeosu Coast occurs around August 26. Climatic changes in annual mean SST have had significant increasing tendency with increase rate $0.0305^{\circ}C/Year$. The warming trend in recent 30 years (1981-2010) is more pronounced than that in the last 30 years (1966-1995) and the increasing tendency of winter SST dominates that of the annual SST. The time series model that could be used to forecast the SST on a monthly basis was developed applying Box-Jenkins methodology. $ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)_{12}$ was suggested for forecasting the monthly mean SST at Yeosu Coast in Korea. Mean absolute percentage error to measure the accuracy of forecasted values was 8.3%.