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http://dx.doi.org/10.7846/JKOSMEE.2014.17.2.122

Fluctuations and Time Series Forecasting of Sea Surface Temperature at Yeosu Coast in Korea  

Seong, Ki-Tack (Southwest Sea Fisheries Research Institute)
Choi, Yang-Ho (Southwest Sea Fisheries Research Institute)
Koo, Jun Ho (Southwest Sea Fisheries Research Institute)
Jeon, Sang-Back (Southwest Sea Fisheries Research Institute)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy / v.17, no.2, 2014 , pp. 122-130 More about this Journal
Abstract
Seasonal variations and long term linear trends of SST (Sea Surface Temperature) at Yeosu Coast ($127^{\circ}37.73^{\prime}E$, $34^{\circ}37.60^{\prime}N$) in Korea were studied performing the harmonic analysis and the regression analysis of the monthly mean SST data of 46 years (1965-2010) collected by the Fisheries Research and Development Institute in Korea. The mean SST and the amplitude of annual SST variation show $15.6^{\circ}C$ and $9.0^{\circ}C$ respectively. The phase of annual SST variation is $236^{\circ}$. The maximum SST at Yeosu Coast occurs around August 26. Climatic changes in annual mean SST have had significant increasing tendency with increase rate $0.0305^{\circ}C/Year$. The warming trend in recent 30 years (1981-2010) is more pronounced than that in the last 30 years (1966-1995) and the increasing tendency of winter SST dominates that of the annual SST. The time series model that could be used to forecast the SST on a monthly basis was developed applying Box-Jenkins methodology. $ARIMA(1,0,0)(2,1,0)_{12}$ was suggested for forecasting the monthly mean SST at Yeosu Coast in Korea. Mean absolute percentage error to measure the accuracy of forecasted values was 8.3%.
Keywords
Sea surface temperature(SST); Seasonal variation; Long term linear trend; ARIMA; Forecast;
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