• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.29 no.3
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• pp.525-537
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• 2016

The paper considers a hybrid model to analyze and forecast time series data based on an empirical mode decomposition (EMD) that accommodates complex characteristics of time series such as nonstationarity and nonlinearity. We aggregate IMFs using the concept of cumulative energy to improve the interpretability of intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) from EMD. We forecast aggregated IMFs and residue with a hybrid model that combines the ARIMA model and an exponential smoothing method (ETS). The proposed method is applied to forecast KOSPI time series and is compared to traditional forecast models. Aggregated IMFs and residue provide a convenience to interpret the short, medium and long term dynamics of the KOSPI. It is also observed that the hybrid model with ARIMA and ETS is superior to traditional and other types of hybrid models.

• Proceedings of the Plant Resources Society of Korea Conference
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• 2019.04a
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• pp.83-83
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• 2019

아피오스(Apios americana Medikus)는 콩과에 속하는 덩굴성 식물로 원산지는 북미대륙 중동부로 알려져 있으며 지하부의 뿌리가 변형된 괴근 부위를 식용으로 하고 있다. 아피오스의 괴근은 건물당 단백질 함량이 16.5%로 감자에 비해 3배 가량 높고 지방산 함량은 4.2~4.6% 범위로 Linoleic acid가 주를 이루고 있다. 또한 감자에 비해 칼슘 함량이 10배 가량 높고 철분함량은 2배 가량 높아 기능성 건강식품으로 유망시되고 있다. 아피오스는 일교차가 큰 준고랭지역에서도 재배가능성이 높지만 최근의 기후변화에 따라 파종기의 저온피해 등으로 안정적인 입모율의 확보가 문제시 되고 있다. 준고랭지 지역에서 아피오스의 파종시기별 출현양상 및 수량성을 구명하기 위해 표고 500m의 허브산채시험장 포장에서 2018년 4월 25일, 5월 9일, 5월 16일, 5월 28일 4회 걸쳐 흑색비닐을 피복한 1줄 재배양식으로 아피오스 괴근을 파종하였다. 파종 후 30일, 50일간의 누적 출현율은 5월 18일 파종이 파종 30일 후 52.5%를 보였으며 같은 기간 동안의 유효적산온도는 $276.9^{\circ}C$ 범위였고, 5월 30일 파종에서 파종 후 30일간의 누적 출현율은 80.4%롤 보였으며 유효적산 온도는 $329.2^{\circ}C$를 나타냈다. 파종시기별 유효적산온도와 누적 출현율 간의 관계를 나타내는 관계식은 $y=0.1155{\times}1.0415$의 지수함수로 표현할 수 있었으며, 준고랭지(남원시 운봉읍)에서 2007~2017년까지의 10년간 평균기온을 기준으로 관계식을 적용한 결과 평년 기준 5월 18일 파종하는 경우 50일간 유효적산온도는 $390.5^{\circ}C$를 보였고 출현율은 55.6%가 기대되었으며 6월 11일에는 $601.5^{\circ}C$의 적산온도로 85.3%의 출현이 예상되었다. 파종시기별 총 괴근수는 5월 30일 파종에서 17.5개/주로 유의하게 적었으며 상품 괴근중 및 상품률도 유의하게 적은 경향이었고, 출현율을 고려한 단위면적당 상품 괴근수량은 5월 18일 파종에서 602.5㎏/10a로 가장 높았고 4월 25일 파종에서 348.6㎏/10a로 가장 낮아 준고랭지 아피오스 재배에서 적정 파종시기는 5월 중순으로 판단되었다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.2
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• pp.97-107
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• 2011

For the purpose of enhancing usability of NWP (Numerical Weather Prediction), the quantitative precipitation prediction scheme was suggested. In this research, precipitation by leading time was predicted using 3-hour rainfall accumulation by meso-scale numerical weather model and AWS (Automatic Weather Station), precipitation water and relative humidity observed by atmospheric sounding station, probability of rainfall occurrence by leading time in June and July, 2001 and August, 2002. Considering the nonlinear process of ranfall producing mechanism, the ANN (Artificial Neural Network) that is useful in nonlinear fitting between rainfall and the other atmospheric variables. The feedforward multi-layer perceptron was used for neural network structure, and the nonlinear bipolaractivation function was used for neural network training for converting negative rainfall into no rain value. The ANN simulated rainfall was validated by leading time using Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (COE) and Coefficient of Correlation (CORR). As a result, the 3 hour rainfall accumulation basis shows that the COE of the areal mean of the Korean peninsula was improved from -0.04 to 0.31 for the 12 hr leading time, -0.04 to 0.38 for the 24 hr leading time, -0.03 to 0.33 for the 36 hr leading time, and -0.05 to 0.27 for the 48 hr leading time.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.13-27
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• 2013

Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is one of the most important elements in meteorological and hydrological applications. In this study, we adjusted the QPE from an S-band weather radar based on co-kriging method using the geostatistical structure function of error distribution of radar rainrate. In order to estimate the accurate quantitative precipitation, the error of radar rainrate which is a primary variable of co-kriging was determined by the difference of rain rates from rain gauge and radar. Also, the gauge rainfield, a secondary variable of co-kriging is derived from the ordinary kriging based on raingauge network. The error distribution of radar rain rate was produced by co-kriging with the derived theoretical variogram determined by experimental variogram. The error of radar rain rate was then applied to the radar estimated precipitation field. Locally heavy rainfall case during 6-7 July 2009 is chosen to verify this study. Correlation between adjusted one-hour radar rainfall accumulation and rain gauge rainfall accumulation improved from 0.55 to 0.84 when compared to prior adjustment of radar error with the adjustment of root mean square error from 7.45 to 3.93 mm.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.32 no.3
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• pp.249-264
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• 2011

A multi-Gaussian kriging approach extended to space-time domain is presented for uncertainty modeling as well as time-series mapping of environmental variables. Within a multi-Gaussian framework, normal score transformed environmental variables are first decomposed into deterministic trend and stochastic residual components. After local temporal trend models are constructed, the parameters of the models are estimated and interpolated in space. Space-time correlation structures of stationary residual components are quantified using a product-sum space-time variogram model. The ccdf is modeled at all grid locations using this space-time variogram model and space-time kriging. Finally, e-type estimates and conditional variances are computed from the ccdf models for spatial mapping and uncertainty analysis, respectively. The proposed approach is illustrated through a case of time-series Particulate Matter 10 ($PM_{10}$) concentration mapping in Incheon Metropolitan city using monthly $PM_{10}$ concentrations at 13 stations for 3 years. It is shown that the proposed approach would generate reliable time-series $PM_{10}$ concentration maps with less mean bias and better prediction capability, compared to conventional spatial-only ordinary kriging. It is also demonstrated that the conditional variances and the probability exceeding a certain thresholding value would be useful information sources for interpretation.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.101 no.1
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• pp.28-35
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• 2012

Rainfall is widely recognized as a major landslide-triggering factor. Most of the latest landslides that occurred in South Korea were caused by short-duration heavy rainfall. However, the relationship between rainfall characteristics and landslide occurrence is poorly understood. To examine the effect of rainfall on landslide occurrence, cumulative rainfall(mm) and rainfall intensity(mm/hr) of serial rain and antecedent rainfall(mm) were analyzed for 18 landslide events that occurred in the southern and central regions of South Korea in June and July 2011. It was found that all of these landslides occurred by heavy rainfall for one or three days, with the rainfall intensity exceeding 30 mm/hr or with a cumulative rainfall of 200 mm. These plotted data are beyond the landslide warning criteria of Korea Forest Service and the critical line of landslide occurrence for Gyeongnam Province. It was also found that the time to landslide occurrence after rainfall start(T) was shortened with the increasing average rainfall intensity(ARI), showing an exponential-decay curve, and this relation can be expressed as "T = $94.569{\cdot}exp$($-0.068{\cdot}ARI$)($R^2$=0.64, p<0.001)". The findings in this study may provide important evidences for the landslide forecasting guidance service of Korea Forest Service as well as essential data for the establishment of non-structural measures such as a warning and evacuation system in the face of sediment disasters.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.648-648
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• 2015

이 연구는 수자원 환경을 전반적으로 객관화, 계량화하는 새로운 방법이 성공적임을 소개한다. 기존의 계량법이 일강수량, 월 강수량, 년 강수량 등등, 단순한 수학적 합계에 치중한 결과 가중 중요한 강수의 시간 분포를 간과하였다. 이 단점을 해결하여, 1) 구체적으로 매 시간, 매일 남아 있다고 추정되는 물의 양 만을 합산하는 방법을 택했다. 시간적 감소함수를 이용하여, 강수 후 유출과 증발 등으로 사라지는 물의 양을 고려한 것이다. 2) 합산기간을 객관화하였다. 기본 합산 기간을 365일로 하고, 물 부족 또는 물 과잉이 지속될 경우는 지속되는 기간만큼, 합산기간을 늘이는 방법을 택했다. 따라서 다른 지수들이 임의로 3개월 또는 12개월 등등으로 기간을 결정하는 단점을 해결했다. 이렇게 계산되는 4차원 강수지수(4-Dimensional Rain Index, 4RI)는 1) 일별유효강수지수 (AWRI), 2) 일별가뭄지수(EDI), 3) 일별 홍수지수(FI), 4) 시간별 장기 물지수(LWI), 5) 시간별 단기 물지수(SWI) 등 5개가 기본지수이다. AWRI는 매일 남아 있는 물의 양이다. 이로 인해, 전 지구의 수자원과 재해위험의 시공간적 분포의 정량화 분석이 정밀해졌다. 지구상에서 물 집중이 가장 강한 곳은 캄보디아 내의 한 지점이며 시기는 7월 말이고, 가장 약한 곳은 사하라 사막의 한 지역임이 확인되었다. 또 한국에서 발생하는 갈수기와 풍수기가 정의되었고, 이들의 각 지역별 특성과 차이가 정량적으로 드러났다. 시간적 분포 또한 명확하게 드러나, 각종 저수지의 물 관리나 농?임산물의 생산관리에 획기적 전환점이 마련되었다. 각 국가별로, 각 지역별로 이런 분석은 향후도 무수히 시도되어야 할 것이다. EDI는 매일의 AWRI를 그 날짜의 평균치와 비교한 값이다. 장기가뭄 및 단기가뭄의 강도를 모두 가장 정밀하게 표현한다. FI는 일별로 홍수, 산사태, 침수, 토사 (이하 홍수 등이라 칭함)의 위험을, LWI는 장기 누적된 강수량에 의한 돌발적 홍수 등의 위험을, SWI는 단기 누적된 강수량에 의한 돌발적 홍수 등의 위험을 잘 반영한다. 이들은 모두 시간적으로 산발적인 호우에 의한 홍수 등의 위험을 한 개의 지수로 표현해 주는 장점이 있다. 강수 후 홍수가 발생하기 까지는 시간차이가 있기 때문에, 특히 호우 경보에는 SWI가, 홍수 경보에는 LWI가 아주 효과적이다. 결론적으로 5개의 4차원 강수지수는 물환경의 시공간적 분포진단과 예측, 그리고 조기경보에 혁명적 진화를 초래함이 확인되었다. 따라서 추후 모든 강수기후와 연관된 연구는 연강수량 등의 단순 합산보다, 4차원 강수지수를 먼저 사용하는 것이 바람직 할 것임이 제안되었다.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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• v.53 no.8
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• pp.3-12
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• 2016

Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) protocol has attracted attention as a promising technology for low data throughput and low energy wireless sensor networks. Fast device discovery is very important in a BLE based wireless network. It is necessary to configure the network to work with minimized energy consumption because the BLE network nodes are expected to operate a long time typically on a coin cell battery. However, since it is difficult to obtain low energy and low latency at the same time, the BLE standard introduces wide range setting of parameters related to device discovery process and let the network operators to set up parameter values for the application. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the performance of device discovery according to the related parameter values prior to BLE network operation. In this paper we analyze the expected value and the cumulative distribution function of the number of advertisements for device discovery in the BLE network. In addition, we propose a scheme for controlling the interval between advertising events that can improve the performance of device discovery without increasing energy consumption.

• Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea TC
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.48-55
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• 2009

The feedback interference channels are those made through the multipaths that are built by moving and stationary objects around transmit and receive antennas mounted at the same point. This paper describes the method to measure the feedback interference channels in the rural regions and sides of highways and the analysis on channel characteristic parameters. Using the measured samples, we estimated scattering functions, delay power spectra, and Doppler power spectra, and we analyzed the channels using eight parameters including coherence bandwidth, coherence time, maximum excess delay, average excess delay, rms delay spread, Doppler shift, Doppler spread, and spread factor, and delay and Doppler cumulative distributions. Even though many observations are made, note that the feedback signals of high Doppler frequencies and large energy are observed in the sides of highways due to high speed vehicles while low Doppler frequencies occurred in the rural region due to rare traffic.

• The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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• v.17 no.5 s.108
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• pp.440-450
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• 2006

In this paper, the frequency sharing issue between time division duplex-orthogonal frequency division multiplexing/orthogonal frequency division multiple access(TDD-OFDM/OFDMA) based systems beyond third generation(B3G) and fixed Satellite Service(FSS) earth station has been studied. The conventional advanced minimum coupling loss(A-MCL) is adopted to assess the interference from a single base station(BS) of B3G systems. The aggregated interferences from base stations and mobile stations(MS) are evaluated by applying the extended A-MCL and analysed with a cumulative density function(CDF). The minimum distances that enable a single FSS earth station to sharing the frequency with a single BS are between 4 and 53.3 km. In the case of 20 MS per sector, the BS-to-BS distance and the minimum distance between a ES and BS are 6.5 and 2.8 km, respectively.