• Title/Summary/Keyword: 평균기대폭

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A Study on Predicting North Korea's Electricity Generation Using Satellite Nighttime Light Data (위성 야간광 자료를 이용한 북한의 발전량 예측 연구)

  • Bong Chan Kim;Seulki Lee;Chang-Wook Lee
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.81-91
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    • 2024
  • Electrical energy is a key source of energy for modern civilization, and changes in electricity generation and consumption are closely related to industry and life in general. In this study, we identified the correlation between electricity generation and nighttime light values in South Korea and used it to predict monthly electricity generation trends in North Korea. The results of the study showed a low Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.34 between nighttime light and electricity generation in Seoul, but a high Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.79 between weighting for Seoul case nighttime light values and electricity generation using monthly average temperature. Using nighttime light values weighting for Seoul case by the average monthly temperature in Pyongyang to predict the monthly power generation trend in North Korea, we found that the month-on-month power generation increase in December 2022 was about 60% higher than the month-on-month power generation increase in December 2020 and 2021. The results of this study are expected to help predict monthly electricity generation trends in regions where monthly electricity generation data does not exist, making it difficult to identify timely industry trends.

Growth and Branch Characteristics of 35 Half-sib Families in a Seed Orchard of Quercus acutissima (상수리나무 채종원에서 수형목 풍매차대 35가계의 생장 및 가지특성)

  • Cheon, Byoung-Hwan;Kang, Kyu-Suk;Han, Sang-Urk;Oh, Chang-Young;Kim, Chang-Soo;Kim, Kae-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Breeding Science
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    • v.41 no.3
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    • pp.228-235
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    • 2009
  • Growth and branch characteristics of 35 half-sib families were surveyed in a seedling seed orchard of Quercus acutissima at ages 10 and 12. The averages of height, DBH (diameter at breast height), branch height, crown width, branch angle and stem straightness at age 12 were 9.96 m, 14.50 cm, 1.04 m, 6.80 m, $18.82^{\circ}$ and 2.58, respectively. Families of 075 and 052 showed superior height growth and 0511 and 0517 were inferior ones. For DBH growth, 075 and 0413 were best families and 0725 and 0511 were inferior families. Pearson's product moment and Spearman's rank correlation coefficients were all positive for all growth traits except branch angle at ages 10 and 12. This result showed that the families with good height and DBH growth were also superior in stem straightness. In ANOVA, there was a highly significant difference among families in height, DBH, cylindric volume and stem straightness. Branch height, crown width and branch angle were also significantly different among families. Family heritability was higher than individual heritability at ages 10 and 12. Height, DBH and stem straightness were under strong genetic control, showing high family heritability. This implies that high genetic gain could be expected by family selection. Expected genetic gain for each trait was estimated based on the family selection. The highest genetic gain was expected for the traits of branch angle, height and DBH because of the large phenotypic standard deviation and the high family heritability. The growth performance and branch characteristics were weighted by the magnitude of genetic variation and heritability. The weighted values were then subjected to estimate family breeding values. This family breeding value would be applied as a criterion in the genetic thinning of the seed orchard.

Development on Prediction Algorithm of Sediment Discharge by Debris Flow for Decision of Location and Scale of the Check Dam (사방댐 위치 및 규모 결정을 위한 토석류 토사유출량 예측 알고리즘 개발)

  • Kim, Kidae;Woo, Choongshik;Lee, Changwoo;Seo, Junpyo;Kang, Minjeng
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.586-593
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    • 2020
  • Purpose: This study aims to develop an algorithm for predicting sediment discharge by debris flow, and develop GIS-based decision support system for optimal arrangement of check dam. Method: The average stream width and flow length were used to predict the cumulative sediment discharge by debris flow. At this time, the amount of slope failure on source area and average flow length were utilized as input factors. Result: The predicted sediment discharge calculated through the algorithm was 1.1 times different on average compared to the actual sediment discharge by debris flow. In addition, the program is an objective indicator that selects the location and size of the check dam, and it can help practitioners make rational decisions. Conclusion: The soil erosion control works are being implemented every year. Therefore, it is expected that the GIS-based decision support system for location and size of the check dam will contribute to the prevention of sediment-related disasters.

Developing Integrated Transportation Service Index for Encouraging Transit-oriented Development (TOD형 개발 촉진을 위한 통합교통서비스 지표의 개발)

  • Hwang, Kee Yeon;Shin, Sang Young;Cho, Yong Hak;Sohn, Kee Min
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.1D
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2008
  • Recently, the Seoul Metropolitan Government (SMG) has initiated several urban redevelopment projects to revitalize the downtown well equipped for transit oriented development (TOD). Since, TOD should incur higher density development in our context, it has negative impacts on travel patterns, congestion, and urban environmental quality. The purpose of this study is to develop new transportation service index which can facilitate higher density TOD. This study includes relevant foreign case studies, the development of multimodal transportation index, and the impact analysis of TOD when it is applied in the downtown Seoul. In chapter III, it developed a so-called ITLOS, new multimodal transportation service index which shows the possibility of accommodating further development by integrating roadway service index with public transportation service index. The study sets ten policy scenarios by varying densities, and run the Seoul Congestion Management Model (SECOMM) to estimate the sustainable transportation impacts of TOD in the downtown. Travel speed index that only represents the availability of road capacity for development reveal that higher density development in the downtown can deteriorate traffic congestion while improving region-wide transportation level of service in Seoul. Also, it is proved that higher density development is more feasible when using ITLOS as the index because it considers not only available road capacity but subway capacity in the analysis area.

Left-tail Risk and Expected Stock Returns in the Korean Stock Market (국내 주식시장에서 주가급락위험이 기대수익률에 미치는 영향)

  • Cheon, Yong-Ho;Ban, Ju-Il
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.21 no.11
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    • pp.320-332
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    • 2021
  • This paper investigates the influence of stock-level left-tail risk, which is defined using Value-at-Risk(VaR) estimates of past one-year daily stock returns, in the expected stock returns in the Korean stock market. Our results are summarized as follows: First, monthly-constructed zero-cost portfolios that buy (shortsell) the highest (lowest) left-tail risk decile in the previous month exhibit an average monthly return (called left-tail risk premium) of -2.29%. Second, Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional regressions suggest that left-tail risk in the previous month shows significant and negative explanatory power over return in this month, after controlling for various firm characteristics such as firm size, B/M, market beta, liquidity, maximum daily return, idiosyncratic volatility, and skewness. Third, the stocks with larger recent month loss have lower returns in the next month. Fourth, the magnitude of left-tail risk premium is negatively related with lagged market-level volatility. These results support the hypothesis from a perspective of behavioral finance that the overpricing of stocks with left-tail risk is attributed to the investors' underreaction to it.

Influenced on Analysis of Characteristics of Forest Environmental Factors on Debris Flow Occurrence (토석류 위험지역에 영향하는 산림환경 특성 분석)

  • Park, Jae-hyeon;Kang, Min-Jeong;Kim, Ki-Dae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.104 no.3
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    • pp.403-410
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    • 2015
  • This study was conducted to analyze the forest environmental characteristics on a total of 20 forest environmental factors affecting the debris flow against 272 sites of risk areas. In the case of environmental factors, it showed the high risk of debris flow under the following conditions such as soil depth of less than 30cm, west slope, altitude of 200~300 m, mountain average slope of $25{\sim}30^{\circ}$, sandy loam, igneous rocks, and composite slope. Among the rainfall factors, 50~100 mm of maximum hourly rain fall and 300 mm of maximum rain fall per day have been shown the high risk of debris flow. Furthermore, the high risk of debris flow was related to the river-bed average slope of $10{\sim}20^{\circ}$, the river-bed average width of >10 m, the small amount of debris in river-bed (less than 20% of river-bed structure), the drainage density of >$1km/km^2$, the 40~60% of area with more than $20^{\circ}$ slope, and the 40~60% of areas with risk grade 2 of landslide. In addition, forest environmental factors including the driftwood, soil erosion control structures, age-class 3, crown density (density), and mixed forest were important factors causing the high risk of debris flow.

Surface Reflectance Retrieval from Satellite Observation (OMI) over East Asia Using Minimum Reflectance Method (위성관측 오존계에서 최소 반사도법을 이용하여 동아시아 지역의 지면반사도 산출)

  • Shin, Hee-Woo;Yoo, Jung-Moon;Lee, Kwon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.212-226
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    • 2019
  • This study derived spectral Lambertian Equivalent Reflectance (LER) over East Asia from the observations of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard polar-orbit satellite Aura. The climatological (October 2004-September 2007) LER values were compared with the surface reflectance products of OMI or MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in terms of the atmosphere-environment variables as follows: wavelength (UV, visible), surface properties (land, ocean), and cloud filtering. Four kinds of LER outputs in the UV and visible region (328-500 nm) were retrieved based on the averages of lowest (1, 5, and 10%) surface reflectance values as well as the minimum reflectance. The average of the lowest 10% among them was in best agreement with the OMI product: correlation coefficient (0.88), RMSE (1.0%) and mean bias (-0.3%). The 10% average and OMI LER values over ocean were 2% larger in UV than in visible, while the values over land were 1% smaller. The LER variability on the wavelength and surface property was highest (~3%) in the condition of both land and visible, particularly in the ice-cap and desert regions. The minimum reflectance values over the oceanic and inland sample areas overestimated the MODIS product by 1.4%. This high-resolution MODIS observations were effective in removing cloud contamination. The relative errors of the 10% average to MODIS were smaller (-0.6%) over ocean but larger (1.5%) over land than those of the OMI product to MODIS. The reduced relative error in the OMI product over land may result from additional cloud filtering using the Landsat data. This study will be useful when retrieveing the surface reflectance from geostationary-orbit environmental satellite (e.g., Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer; GEMS).

Developing Korean Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model Reflecting Climate Change in the Spring of 2000s (2000년대 기후변화를 반영한 봄철 산불발생확률모형 개발)

  • Won, Myoungsoo;Yoon, Sukhee;Jang, Keunchang
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.199-207
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    • 2016
  • This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for practical forecasting of forest fire danger rate by reflecting the climate change for the time period of 2000yrs. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, temperature, and precipitation. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we developed a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire in 2000yrs. Forest fire occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using times series weather data sets collected from 76 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were used for 11 years from 2000 to 2010. Development of the national forest fire occurrence probability model used a logistic regression analysis with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. Nine probability models for individual nine provinces including Jeju Island have been developed. The results of the statistical analysis show that the logistic models (p<0.05) strongly depends on the effective and relative humidity, temperature, wind speed, and rainfall. The results of verification showed that the probability of randomly selected fires ranges from 0.687 to 0.981, which represent a relatively high accuracy of the developed model. These findings may be beneficial to the policy makers in South Korea for the prevention of forest fires.

Mechanical Properties of Lightweight Foamed Concrete Using Polymer Foam Agent (고분자 기포제를 이용한 경량 기포 콘크리트의 역학적 특성 (II))

  • 박상순;송하원;변근주
    • Magazine of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.173-181
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    • 1997
  • The objective of this study is to obtain the mechanical characteristics of prefoarmed lightweight foamed concrete using the polymer ham agent which has high lightness. flowability and strength. For this purpose, the prefoarmed lightweight foamed concrete which was developed to have flow value over 180mm. unit weight between 0.38t/$m^3$ and 0.64t/$m^3$, and compressive strength about 30kg/$cm^2$ was used. This paper presents extensive test data on Young's modulus. Poisson's ratio, stress-strain curve, the characteristics of strength of the foamed concrete and also presents the mechanical characteristics of the foamed concrete with different foam sizes. It is expected that this study provides an importance guide to design and manufacture lightweight foam concrete, so that it helps to expand its structural use.

The Characteristics of Vehicle Speed Violation in School Zones (어린이 보호구역에서의 차량 속도위반 특성 분석)

  • Park, Jae-Young;Kim, Do-Gyeong
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.63-69
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    • 2010
  • Since speed limit enforcement in school zones is the most important to reduce the occurrence of severe child related accidents, school zones typically have a speed limit of 30km/h. However, it is found that the majority of vehicles passing school zones are traveling over 30km/h. This indicates that school zones are not being effectively operated to achieve the main objective which is the reduction of child related accidents. This study aims to identify the factors affecting the violation of speed limits in school zones through the results of field survey from 8 elementary schools. The results showed that time period, the number of lanes, the width of sidewalks, and the status of colored pavement were found to be highly associated with the violation of speed limits in school zones at the 95% significance level. The results of this study may provide some insights for making safe environments around schools.