• Title/Summary/Keyword: 판단 기준

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Geochemical Equilibria and Kinetics of the Formation of Brown-Colored Suspended/Precipitated Matter in Groundwater: Suggestion to Proper Pumping and Turbidity Treatment Methods (지하수내 갈색 부유/침전 물질의 생성 반응에 관한 평형 및 반응속도론적 연구: 적정 양수 기법 및 탁도 제거 방안에 대한 제안)

  • 채기탁;윤성택;염승준;김남진;민중혁
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Groundwater Environment
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.103-115
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    • 2000
  • The formation of brown-colored precipitates is one of the serious problems frequently encountered in the development and supply of groundwater in Korea, because by it the water exceeds the drinking water standard in terms of color. taste. turbidity and dissolved iron concentration and of often results in scaling problem within the water supplying system. In groundwaters from the Pajoo area, brown precipitates are typically formed in a few hours after pumping-out. In this paper we examine the process of the brown precipitates' formation using the equilibrium thermodynamic and kinetic approaches, in order to understand the origin and geochemical pathway of the generation of turbidity in groundwater. The results of this study are used to suggest not only the proper pumping technique to minimize the formation of precipitates but also the optimal design of water treatment methods to improve the water quality. The bed-rock groundwater in the Pajoo area belongs to the Ca-$HCO_3$type that was evolved through water/rock (gneiss) interaction. Based on SEM-EDS and XRD analyses, the precipitates are identified as an amorphous, Fe-bearing oxides or hydroxides. By the use of multi-step filtration with pore sizes of 6, 4, 1, 0.45 and 0.2 $\mu\textrm{m}$, the precipitates mostly fall in the colloidal size (1 to 0.45 $\mu\textrm{m}$) but are concentrated (about 81%) in the range of 1 to 6 $\mu\textrm{m}$in teams of mass (weight) distribution. Large amounts of dissolved iron were possibly originated from dissolution of clinochlore in cataclasite which contains high amounts of Fe (up to 3 wt.%). The calculation of saturation index (using a computer code PHREEQC), as well as the examination of pH-Eh stability relations, also indicate that the final precipitates are Fe-oxy-hydroxide that is formed by the change of water chemistry (mainly, oxidation) due to the exposure to oxygen during the pumping-out of Fe(II)-bearing, reduced groundwater. After pumping-out, the groundwater shows the progressive decreases of pH, DO and alkalinity with elapsed time. However, turbidity increases and then decreases with time. The decrease of dissolved Fe concentration as a function of elapsed time after pumping-out is expressed as a regression equation Fe(II)=10.l exp(-0.0009t). The oxidation reaction due to the influx of free oxygen during the pumping and storage of groundwater results in the formation of brown precipitates, which is dependent on time, $Po_2$and pH. In order to obtain drinkable water quality, therefore, the precipitates should be removed by filtering after the stepwise storage and aeration in tanks with sufficient volume for sufficient time. Particle size distribution data also suggest that step-wise filtration would be cost-effective. To minimize the scaling within wells, the continued (if possible) pumping within the optimum pumping rate is recommended because this technique will be most effective for minimizing the mixing between deep Fe(II)-rich water and shallow $O_2$-rich water. The simultaneous pumping of shallow $O_2$-rich water in different wells is also recommended.

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Influence of Fertilizer Type on Physiological Responses during Vegetative Growth in 'Seolhyang' Strawberry (생리적 반응이 다른 비료 종류가 '설향' 딸기의 영양생장에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Hee Su;Jang, Hyun Ho;Choi, Jong Myung;Kim, Dae Young
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2015
  • Objective of this research was to investigate the influence of compositions and concentrations of fertilizer solutions on the vegetative growth and nutrient uptake of 'Seolhyang' strawberry. To achieve this, the solutions of acid fertilizer (AF), neutral fertilizer (NF), and basic fertilizer (BF) were prepared at concentrations of 100 or $200mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ based on N and applied during the 100 days after transplanting. The changes in chemical properties of the soil solution were analysed every two weeks, and crop growth measurements as well as tissue analyses for mineral contents were conducted 100 days after fertilization. The growth was the highest in the treatments with BF, followed by those with NF and AF. The heaviest fresh and dry weights among treatments were 151.3 and 37.8 g, respectively, with BF $200mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$. In terms of tissue nutrient contents, the highest N, P and Na contents, of 3.08, 0.54, and 0.10%, respectively, were observed in the treatment with NF $200mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$. The highest K content was 2.83%, in the treatment with AF $200mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$, while the highest Ca and Mg were 0.98 and 0.42%, respectively, in BF $100mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$. The AF treatments had higher tissue Fe, Mn, Zn, and Cu contents compared to those of NF or BF when fertilizer concentrations were controlled to equal. During the 100 days after fertilization, the highest and lowest pH in soil solution of root media among all treatments tested were 6.67 in BF $100mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ and 4.69 in AF $200mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$, respectively. The highest and lowest ECs were $5.132dS{\cdot}m^{-1}$ in BF $200mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ and $1.448dS{\cdot}m^{-1}$ in BF $100mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$, respectively. For the concentrations of macronutrients in the soil solution of root media, the AF $200mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ treatment gave the highest $NH_4$ concentrations followed by NF $200mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$ and AF $100mg{\cdot}L^{-1}$. The K concentrations in all treatments rose gradually after day 42 in all treatments. When fertilizer concentrations were controlled to equal, the highest Ca and Mg concentrations were observed in AF followed by NF and BF until day 84 in fertilization. The BF treatments produced the highest $NO_3$ concentrations, followed by NF and AF. The trends in the change of $PO_4$ concentration were similar in all treatments. The $SO_4$ concentrations were higher in treatments with AF than those with NF or BF until day 70 in fertilization. These results indicate that compositions of fertilizer solution should to be modified to contain more alkali nutrients when 'Seolhyang' strawberry is cultivated through inert media and nutri-culture systems.

The Content and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Herbal Pills (유통 환제의 유해 중금속 함량 및 위해도 평가)

  • Lee, Sung-Deuk;Lee, Young-Ki;Kim, Moo-Sang;Park, Seok-Ki;Kim, Yeon-Sun;Chae, Young-Zoo
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.375-387
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study is investigation of contamination levels and assessment of health risk effects of heavy metals in herbal pills. 31 Items and 93 samples were obtained for this investigation from major herbal medicine producing areas, herbal markets and on-line supermarkets from Jan to Jun in 2010. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer method was conducted for the quantitative analysis of Pb, Cd and As. In addition, the mercury analyzer system was conducted for that of Hg without sample digestion. The average contents of heavy metals in samples were as follows : 0.87 mg/kg for Pb, 0.08 mg/kg for Cd, 2.87 mg/kg for As and 0.16 mg/kg for Hg, respectively. In addition, the average contents of heavy metals in different parts of plants, including cortex, fructus, herba, radix, seed, algae and others were 0.63 mg/kg, 3.94 mg/kg, 1.42 mg/kg, 1.05 mg/kg, 0.16 mg/kg, 22.31 mg/kg and 10.17 mg/kg, respectively. After the estimations of dietary exposure, the acceptable daily intake (ADI), the average daily dose (ADD), the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) and the relative hazard of heavy metals were evaluated. As the results, the relative hazards compared to PTWI in samples were below the recommended standard of JECFA as Pb 3.1%, Cd 0.9%, Hg 0.5%. Cancer risks through slope factor (SF) by Ministry of Environment Republic Korea and Environmental Protection Agency was $4.24{\times}10^{-7}$ for Pb and $3.38{\times}10^{-4}$ for As (assuming that the total arsenic content was equal to the inorganic arsenic). Based on our results, possible Pb-induced cancer risks in herbal pills according to parts used including cortex, fructus, herba, radix, seed, algae and others were $1.95{\times}10^{-7}$, $1.45{\times}10^{-6}$, $2.14{\times}10^{-7}$, $6.27{\times}10^{-7}$, $1.99{\times}10^{-8}$, $3.61{\times}10^{-7}$ and $9.64{\times}10^{-8}$, respectively. Possible As-induced cancer risks in herbal pills by parts used including cortex, fructus, herba, radix, seed, algae and others were $1.54{\times}10^{-5}$, $7.24{\times}10^{-5}$, $1.23{\times}10^{-4}$, $2.02{\times}10^{-5}$, $3.25{\times}10^{-6}$, $2.18{\times}10^{-3}$ and $5.67{\times}10^{-6}$ respectively. Taken together, these results indicate that the majority of samples except for some samples with relative high contents of heavy metals were safe.

Application of LCA on Lettuce Cropping System by Bottom-up Methodology in Protected Cultivation (시설상추 농가를 대상으로 하는 bottom-up 방식 LCA 방법론의 농업적 적용)

  • Ryu, Jong-Hee;Kim, Kye-Hoon;Kim, Gun-Yeob;So, Kyu-Ho;Kang, Kee-Kyung
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.44 no.6
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    • pp.1195-1206
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    • 2011
  • This study was conducted to apply LCA (Life cycle assessment) methodology to lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) production systems in Namyang-ju as a case study. Five lettuce growing farms with three different farming systems (two farms with organic farming system, one farm with a system without agricultural chemicals and two farms with conventional farming system) were selected at Namyangju city of Gyeonggi-province in Korea. The input data for LCA were collected by interviewing with the farmers. The system boundary was set at a cropping season without heating and cooling system for reducing uncertainties in data collection and calculation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out to find out the effect of type and amount of fertilizer and energy use on GHG (Greenhouse Gas) emission. The results of establishing GTG (Gate-to-Gate) inventory revealed that the quantity of fertilizer and energy input had the largest value in producing 1 kg lettuce, the amount of pesticide input the smallest. The amount of electricity input was the largest in all farms except farm 1 which purchased seedlings from outside. The quantity of direct field emission of $CO_2$, $CH_4$ and $N_2O$ from farm 1 to farm 5 were 6.79E-03 (farm 1), 8.10E-03 (farm 2), 1.82E-02 (farm 3), 7.51E-02 (farm 4) and 1.61E-02 (farm 5) kg $kg^{-1}$ lettuce, respectively. According to the result of LCI analysis focused on GHG, it was observed that $CO_2$ emission was 2.92E-01 (farm 1), 3.76E-01 (farm 2), 4.11E-01 (farm 3), 9.40E-01 (farm 4) and $5.37E-01kg\;CO_2\;kg^{-1}\;lettuce$ (farm 5), respectively. Carbon dioxide contribute to the most GHG emission. Carbon dioxide was mainly emitted in the process of energy production, which occupied 67~91% of $CO_2$ emission from every production process from 5 farms. Due to higher proportion of $CO_2$ emission from production of compound fertilizer in conventional crop system, conventional crop system had lower proportion of $CO_2$ emission from energy production than organic crop system did. With increasing inorganic fertilizer input, the process of lettuce cultivation covered higher proportion in $N_2O$ emission. Therefore, farms 1 and 2 covered 87% of total $N_2O$ emission; and farm 3 covered 64%. The carbon footprints from farm 1 to farm 5 were 3.40E-01 (farm 1), 4.31E-01 (farm 2), 5.32E-01 (farm 3), 1.08E+00 (farm 4) and 6.14E-01 (farm 5) kg $CO_2$-eq. $kg^{-1}$ lettuce, respectively. Results of sensitivity analysis revealed the soybean meal was the most sensitive among 4 types of fertilizer. The value of compound fertilizer was the least sensitive among every fertilizer imput. Electricity showed the largest sensitivity on $CO_2$ emission. However, the value of $N_2O$ variation was almost zero.

A Study on the Useful Trend of Plants Related to Landscape and How to Plant and Cultivate Through 'ImwonGyeongjaeji(林園經濟志)' ('임원경제지'를 통해 본 식물의 이용경향과 종예법(種藝法))

  • Shin, Sang-Sup
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.45 no.4
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    • pp.140-157
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    • 2012
  • The result of a study on the useful trend of plants related to landscape and how to plant and cultivate through 'ImwonGyeongjaeji Manhakji'of Seoyugu is as follows: First, 'ImwonGyeongjaiji Manhakji', composed of total 5 volumes (General, Fruit trees, vegetables and creeper, plants, others) is a representative literature related to landscape which described the names of plants and varieties, soil condition, how to plant and cultivate, graft, how to prevent the insect attack etc systematically. Second, he recorded the tree planting as Jongjae(種栽) or Jaesik(栽植), and the period to plant the trees as Jaesusihoo(栽樹時候), transplanting as Yijae(移栽), making the fence as Jakwonri(作園籬), the names of varietieis as Myeongpoom(名品), the suitable soil as Toeui(土宜), planting and cultivation as Jongye(種藝), treatment as Euichi(醫治), protection and breeding as Hoyang(護養), garden as Jeongwon(庭園) or Wonpo(園圃), garden manager as Poja(圃者) or Wonjeong(園丁). Third, the appearance frequency of plants was analyzed in the order of flowers, fruits, trees, and creepers and it showed that the gravity of deciduous trees was 3.7 times higher than that of evergreen trees. The preference of flower and trees, fruit trees and deciduous trees and broad-leaved trees includes (1) application of the species of naturally growing trees which are harmonized with the natural environment (2) Aesthetic value which enables to enjoy the beauty of season, (3) the trend of public welfare to take the flowers and fruits, (4) the use of symbolic elements based on the value reference of Neo-Confucianism etc. Fourth, he suggested the optimal planting period as January(上時) and emphasized to transplant by adding lots of fertile soil and cover up the seeds with soil as high as they are buried in accordance with the growing direction and protect them with a support. That is, considering the fact that he described the optimal planting period as January by lunar calendar, this suggests the hints in judging the planting period today. For planting the seeds, he recommended the depth with 1 chi(寸 : approx. 3.3cm), and for planting a cutting, he recommended to plant the finger-thick branch with depth 5 chi(approx. 16.5cm) between January and February. In case of graft of fruit trees, he described that if used the branch stretched to the south, you would get a lot of fruit and if cut the branches in January, the fruits would be appetizing and bigger. Fifth, the hedge(fence tree) is made by seeding the Jujube tree(Zizyphus jujuba var. inermis) in autumn densely and transplanting the jujube tree with 1 ja(尺 : approx. 30cm) interval in a row in next autumn and then binding them with the height of 7 ja(approx. 210cm) in the spring of next year. If planted by mixing a Elm tree(Ulmus davidiana var. japonica) and a Willow(Salix koreensis), the hedge whose branch and leaves are unique and beautiful like a grating can be made. For the hedge(fence tree), he recommended Trifoliolate orange(Poncitus trifoliata), Rose of sharon(Hibiscus syriacus), Willow(Salix koreensis), Spindle tree(Euonymus japonica), Cherry tree(Prunus tomentosa), Acanthopanax tree(Acanthopanax sessiliflorus), Japanese apricot tree(Prunus mume), Chinese wolf berry(Lycium chinense), Cornelian tree(Cornus officinalis), Gardenia(Gardenia jasminoides for. Grandiflora), Mulberry(Morus alba), Wild rosebush(Rosa multiflora) etc.

Monitoring of Pesticide Residues Concerned in Stream Water (전국 하천수 중 잔류우려 농약 실태조사)

  • Hwang, In-Seong;Oh, Yee-Jin;Kwon, Hye-Young;Ro, Jin-Ho;Kim, Dan-Bi;Moon, Byeong-Chul;Oh, Min-Seok;Noh, Hyun-Ho;Park, Sang-Won;Choi, Geun-Hyoung;Ryu, Song-Hee;Kim, Byung-Seok;Oh, Kyeong-Seok;Lim, Chi-Hwan;Lee, Hyo-Sub
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.173-184
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    • 2019
  • BACKGROUND: This study was carried out to investigate pesticide residues from fifty streams in Korea. Water samples were collected at two times. Thee first sampling was performed from april to may, which was the season for start of pesticide application and the second sampling event was from august to september, which was a period for spraying pesticides multiple times. METHODS AND RESULTS: The 136 pesticide residues were analyzed by LC-MS/MS and GC/ECD. As a result, eleven of the pesticide residues were detected at the first sampling. Twenty eight of the pesticide residues were detected at the second sampling. Seven pesticides were frequently detected from more than 10 water samples. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) was carried out by using residual and toxicological data. Four scenarios were applied for the ERA. Scenario 1 and 2 were performed using LC50 values and mean and maximum concentrations. Scenarios 3 and 4 were conducted by NOEC values and mean and maximum concentrations. CONCLUSION: Frequently detected pesticide residues tended to coincide with the period of preventing pathogen and pest at paddy rice. As a result of ERA, five pesticides (butachlor, carbendazim, carbofuran, chlorantranilprole, and oxadiazon) were assessed to be risks at scenario 4. However, only oxadiazon was assessed to be a risk at scenario 3 for the first sampling. Oxadiazon was not assessed to be a risk at the second sampling. It seems to be temporary phenomenon at the first sampling, because usage of herbicides such as oxadiazon increased from April to march for preventing weeds at paddy fields. However, this study suggested that five pesticides which were assessed to be risks need to be monitored continuously for the residues.

Different Look, Different Feel: Social Robot Design Evaluation Model Based on ABOT Attributes and Consumer Emotions (각인각색, 각봇각색: ABOT 속성과 소비자 감성 기반 소셜로봇 디자인평가 모형 개발)

  • Ha, Sangjip;Lee, Junsik;Yoo, In-Jin;Park, Do-Hyung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.55-78
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    • 2021
  • Tosolve complex and diverse social problems and ensure the quality of life of individuals, social robots that can interact with humans are attracting attention. In the past, robots were recognized as beings that provide labor force as they put into industrial sites on behalf of humans. However, the concept of today's robot has been extended to social robots that coexist with humans and enable social interaction with the advent of Smart technology, which is considered an important driver in most industries. Specifically, there are service robots that respond to customers, the robots that have the purpose of edutainment, and the emotionalrobots that can interact with humans intimately. However, popularization of robots is not felt despite the current information environment in the modern ICT service environment and the 4th industrial revolution. Considering social interaction with users which is an important function of social robots, not only the technology of the robots but also other factors should be considered. The design elements of the robot are more important than other factors tomake consumers purchase essentially a social robot. In fact, existing studies on social robots are at the level of proposing "robot development methodology" or testing the effects provided by social robots to users in pieces. On the other hand, consumer emotions felt from the robot's appearance has an important influence in the process of forming user's perception, reasoning, evaluation and expectation. Furthermore, it can affect attitude toward robots and good feeling and performance reasoning, etc. Therefore, this study aims to verify the effect of appearance of social robot and consumer emotions on consumer's attitude toward social robot. At this time, a social robot design evaluation model is constructed by combining heterogeneous data from different sources. Specifically, the three quantitative indicator data for the appearance of social robots from the ABOT Database is included in the model. The consumer emotions of social robot design has been collected through (1) the existing design evaluation literature and (2) online buzzsuch as product reviews and blogs, (3) qualitative interviews for social robot design. Later, we collected the score of consumer emotions and attitudes toward various social robots through a large-scale consumer survey. First, we have derived the six major dimensions of consumer emotions for 23 pieces of detailed emotions through dimension reduction methodology. Then, statistical analysis was performed to verify the effect of derived consumer emotionson attitude toward social robots. Finally, the moderated regression analysis was performed to verify the effect of quantitatively collected indicators of social robot appearance on the relationship between consumer emotions and attitudes toward social robots. Interestingly, several significant moderation effects were identified, these effects are visualized with two-way interaction effect to interpret them from multidisciplinary perspectives. This study has theoretical contributions from the perspective of empirically verifying all stages from technical properties to consumer's emotion and attitudes toward social robots by linking the data from heterogeneous sources. It has practical significance that the result helps to develop the design guidelines based on consumer emotions in the design stage of social robot development.

Estimation of Fresh Weight and Leaf Area Index of Soybean (Glycine max) Using Multi-year Spectral Data (다년도 분광 데이터를 이용한 콩의 생체중, 엽면적 지수 추정)

  • Jang, Si-Hyeong;Ryu, Chan-Seok;Kang, Ye-Seong;Park, Jun-Woo;Kim, Tae-Yang;Kang, Kyung-Suk;Park, Min-Jun;Baek, Hyun-Chan;Park, Yu-hyeon;Kang, Dong-woo;Zou, Kunyan;Kim, Min-Cheol;Kwon, Yeon-Ju;Han, Seung-ah;Jun, Tae-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.329-339
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    • 2021
  • Soybeans (Glycine max), one of major upland crops, require precise management of environmental conditions, such as temperature, water, and soil, during cultivation since they are sensitive to environmental changes. Application of spectral technologies that measure the physiological state of crops remotely has great potential for improving quality and productivity of the soybean by estimating yields, physiological stresses, and diseases. In this study, we developed and validated a soybean growth prediction model using multispectral imagery. We conducted a linear regression analysis between vegetation indices and soybean growth data (fresh weight and LAI) obtained at Miryang fields. The linear regression model was validated at Goesan fields. It was found that the model based on green ratio vegetation index (GRVI) had the greatest performance in prediction of fresh weight at the calibration stage (R2=0.74, RMSE=246 g/m2, RE=34.2%). In the validation stage, RMSE and RE of the model were 392 g/m2 and 32%, respectively. The errors of the model differed by cropping system, For example, RMSE and RE of model in single crop fields were 315 g/m2 and 26%, respectively. On the other hand, the model had greater values of RMSE (381 g/m2) and RE (31%) in double crop fields. As a result of developing models for predicting a fresh weight into two years (2018+2020) with similar accumulated temperature (AT) in three years and a single year (2019) that was different from that AT, the prediction performance of a single year model was better than a two years model. Consequently, compared with those models divided by AT and a three years model, RMSE of a single crop fields were improved by about 29.1%. However, those of double crop fields decreased by about 19.6%. When environmental factors are used along with, spectral data, the reliability of soybean growth prediction can be achieved various environmental conditions.

Investigation of the location of Jagiso eunchon in Goheung-hyeon and review the characteristics of Undae-ri kiln (고흥현 자기소(磁器所) 은촌(犾村)의 위치 탐색과 운대리 가마터 성격 검토)

  • SUNG Yungil
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.72-92
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    • 2023
  • As described above, the location of Jagiso eunchon in Goheung-hyeon and the nature of Undae-ri kiln site were examined. Goheung-hyeon's administrative agency was moved to Joyang-hyeon, which is now Joseong-myeon, Boseong-gun in 1395. Therefore, Goheung-hyeon Jagiso Eunchon in Sejongsillok Jiriji corresponding to 1424~1432 should be found in the west of Joseong-myeon, Boseong, where the administrative agency was moved in 1395. Among the four boundaries of Goheung-hyeon recorded in the 『Sejongsillok』 Jiriji, it is recorded as 2-ri by the sea in the south and 8-ri by Nakan in the east. If the current Goheung-hyeon is Goheung-hyeon's administrative agency in the Sejongsillok Jiriji Records Compilation Period, it cannot be the boundary the south and east mentioned above. This is because it cannot be 2-ri from the current Goheung-eup to the sea in the south, and Nakan is close to the north, not the east, as recorded. However, it has already been suggested that Joyanghyeonseong(朝陽縣城), located in Gonae Village, Ucheon-ri, Josung-myeon, Boseonggun is an Goheunghyeon's administrative agency. And if the four-way boundary of Goheung-hyeon was converted into the current distance unit based on this place(Joyanghyeonseong, 朝陽縣城), an approximate result could be obtained even if it did not exactly match. Therefore, it is highly likely that Goheung-hyeon's administrative agency, which was moved to Joyang-hyeon, Boseong in 1395, is Gonae Village, Ucheon-ri, JoSeong-myeon, Boseong. Jagiso eunchon(犾村) in Goheung-hyeon can be interpreted as a "dog-shouting village." It is thought to be a meaning structure of "animal + sound". A place name thought to have the same structure was identified in Jeongheung-ri, west of Ucheon-ri, Joseongmyeon, Boseong. It is the name of a village called Hoeum-dong(虎吟洞), and it is interpreted as the sound of a tiger or the bark of a tiger, which is the same as the meaning structure of Eunchon. However, there is Gaesan Village in the south of Hoeum-dong, and a Buncheong ware kiln site was identified around it. At this kiln site, a fragment of carved Buncheong ware engraved with the character "Eon", which corresponds to the right stroke of the character "Seom (贍)" in the name "Naeseom (內贍)" was identified. A small amount of Buncheong ware and Joseon celadon pieces were also identified. It can be seen that the Buncheong ware paid to the government was made by checking the Buncheong ware with the government name engraved on it. On the west side of Joyanghyeonseong Fortress in Ucheon-ri, joseong-myeon, Boseong, which was the administrative agency of Goheung-hyeon and the area around the Gaesan Buncheong ware kiln site in Jeongheung-ri, where the Buncheong ware paid to the government was, is thought to be Jagiso Eunchon, Goheung-hyeon. Jagiso and Dogiso are located in the four directions based on the administrative agency. Naturally, the location of Jagiso and Dogiso is also determined on where the administrative agency of Hyeon is. Since the Goheung-hyeon's administrative agency in the early Joseon Dynasty was moved to Ucheon-ri, joseong-myeon, Boseong-myeon, it is necessary to naturally find Jagiso and Dogiso in Boseong. In addition, regarding the nature of the kiln site in Undae-ri, the aspects of the excavated relics were considered. As a result, it is believed that the Undae-ri kiln site functioned as a jagiso in Heungyang-hyeon from February 1441 to the 1470s. If so, the "Ye" Buncheong ware, which was collected around Undae-ri kiln No. 7, could be naturally understood.

Estimation of GARCH Models and Performance Analysis of Volatility Trading System using Support Vector Regression (Support Vector Regression을 이용한 GARCH 모형의 추정과 투자전략의 성과분석)

  • Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.107-122
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    • 2017
  • Volatility in the stock market returns is a measure of investment risk. It plays a central role in portfolio optimization, asset pricing and risk management as well as most theoretical financial models. Engle(1982) presented a pioneering paper on the stock market volatility that explains the time-variant characteristics embedded in the stock market return volatility. His model, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH), was generalized by Bollerslev(1986) as GARCH models. Empirical studies have shown that GARCH models describes well the fat-tailed return distributions and volatility clustering phenomenon appearing in stock prices. The parameters of the GARCH models are generally estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) based on the standard normal density. But, since 1987 Black Monday, the stock market prices have become very complex and shown a lot of noisy terms. Recent studies start to apply artificial intelligent approach in estimating the GARCH parameters as a substitute for the MLE. The paper presents SVR-based GARCH process and compares with MLE-based GARCH process to estimate the parameters of GARCH models which are known to well forecast stock market volatility. Kernel functions used in SVR estimation process are linear, polynomial and radial. We analyzed the suggested models with KOSPI 200 Index. This index is constituted by 200 blue chip stocks listed in the Korea Exchange. We sampled KOSPI 200 daily closing values from 2010 to 2015. Sample observations are 1487 days. We used 1187 days to train the suggested GARCH models and the remaining 300 days were used as testing data. First, symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models are estimated by MLE. We forecasted KOSPI 200 Index return volatility and the statistical metric MSE shows better results for the asymmetric GARCH models such as E-GARCH or GJR-GARCH. This is consistent with the documented non-normal return distribution characteristics with fat-tail and leptokurtosis. Compared with MLE estimation process, SVR-based GARCH models outperform the MLE methodology in KOSPI 200 Index return volatility forecasting. Polynomial kernel function shows exceptionally lower forecasting accuracy. We suggested Intelligent Volatility Trading System (IVTS) that utilizes the forecasted volatility results. IVTS entry rules are as follows. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will increase then buy volatility today. If forecasted tomorrow volatility will decrease then sell volatility today. If forecasted volatility direction does not change we hold the existing buy or sell positions. IVTS is assumed to buy and sell historical volatility values. This is somewhat unreal because we cannot trade historical volatility values themselves. But our simulation results are meaningful since the Korea Exchange introduced volatility futures contract that traders can trade since November 2014. The trading systems with SVR-based GARCH models show higher returns than MLE-based GARCH in the testing period. And trading profitable percentages of MLE-based GARCH IVTS models range from 47.5% to 50.0%, trading profitable percentages of SVR-based GARCH IVTS models range from 51.8% to 59.7%. MLE-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +150.2% return and SVR-based symmetric S-GARCH shows +526.4% return. MLE-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows -72% return and SVR-based asymmetric E-GARCH shows +245.6% return. MLE-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows -98.7% return and SVR-based asymmetric GJR-GARCH shows +126.3% return. Linear kernel function shows higher trading returns than radial kernel function. Best performance of SVR-based IVTS is +526.4% and that of MLE-based IVTS is +150.2%. SVR-based GARCH IVTS shows higher trading frequency. This study has some limitations. Our models are solely based on SVR. Other artificial intelligence models are needed to search for better performance. We do not consider costs incurred in the trading process including brokerage commissions and slippage costs. IVTS trading performance is unreal since we use historical volatility values as trading objects. The exact forecasting of stock market volatility is essential in the real trading as well as asset pricing models. Further studies on other machine learning-based GARCH models can give better information for the stock market investors.