• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.38 no.11
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• pp.1257-1264
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• 2014

Efforts are presently underway for developing an optimal design methodology for GEN-IV nuclear reactors based on target failure probabilities. A typical example is the system-based code, in which the results are represented in the form of partial safety factors (PSFs). Thus, a PSF is one of the crucial elements in either component design or integrity assessment based on target failure probabilities during the operation period. In the present study, a procedure for calculating the PSF of a circumferential through-wall cracked pipe based on the elastic-plastic crack initiation criterion is established, in which the importance of each input variable is assessed. Elastic-plastic J-integrals are calculated using the GE/EPRI and reference stress methods, and the PSF values are calculated using both first- and second-order reliability methods. Moreover, the effect of statistical distributions of assessment variables on the PSF is also evaluated.

• Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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• v.15 no.2
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• pp.86-96
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• 2003

A fracture or breakage of the concrete armor units in the primary cover layer of breakwaters is studied by using the reliability analysis which may be defined as the structural stability. The reliability function can be derived as a function of the angle of rotation that represents the rocking of armor units quantitatively. The relative influences of all of random variables related to the material and geometric properties on the fracture of armor units is analyzed in detail. In addition, the probability of failure for the fracture of individual armor unit can be evaluated as a function of the incident wave height. Finally, Bernoulli random process and the allowable fracture ratio may be introduced together in this paper, by which the probability of failure of a breakwater due to the fracture of armer units can be obtained straightforwardly. It is found that the probability of failure of a breakwater due to the fracture of armor units may be varied with the several allowable fracture ratios. Therefore, it should be necessary to consider the structural stability as well as the hydraulic stability for the design of breakwaters with multi-leg slender concrete armor units of large size under wave action in deep water.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Industrial Safety Conference
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• 2000.06a
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• pp.13-18
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• 2000

천연가스의 수송을 위해 사용되는 가스배관에 대한 구조적 안전성을 확보하기 위해서는 전체 시스템의 파손 및 위험요소를 효과적으로 평가할 필요가 있다. 위험요소(risk)라고 하면 보통 인명피해와 같은 바람직하지 않은 사고(undesired event)가 발생할 수 있는 가능성이나 확률로써 정의가 되어지는데, 가스배관이 설치되거나 작동되어 질 때에 이러한 파손(failure)의 가능성을 매우 작게 하더라도 위험요소가 존재하게 된다. 특히, 가스배관의 경우 파손으로 인한 사고빈도는 매우 낮다고 보고되어 있지만, 일단 파손이 발생하면 인명 및 재산상의 피해가 매우 크기 때문에 파손의 원인을 분석하여 파손사고의 비율을 최소한으로 낮추는 것이 필요하다. 본 고에서는 해외 가스배관 파손사례를 통해 손상발생 원인에 대해 알아보고 지하매설배관의 위험요소를 평가하는 방법에 대해 기술한다. (중략)

• Proceedings of the KAIS Fall Conference
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• 2011.12b
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• pp.620-623
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• 2011

안전핀은 기계적으로 과도한 힘이 작용할 때, 파손되어 다른 구성품 및 사람을 보호하는 역할을 하며 이는 전자/전기 시스템에서 Fuse와 같은 역할이다. 안전핀은 재설기의 구동시스템 또는 항공기 Pushback Bar 등에 사용된다. 본 논문에서는 항공기 착륙장치에 적용된 안전핀의 역할과 파손 확률 계산 방안에 대해 소개하고자 한다.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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• v.26 no.3
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• pp.411-419
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• 1994

The containment failure probability due to hydrogen burning during severe accidents proceeding in a low pressure sequence is calculated using Monte Carlo method. The probability distribution functions for this Monte Carlo calculation is obtained from the statistical method. The calculations are performed for Kori unit 2, and the sensitivity studies on the input variables-the amount of hydrogen generated at SFD, cerium diameter, cerium length, oxidation rate at FCI, and the amount of hydrogen generated during MCCI-are also performed. It is revealed that SFD is the main factor in hydrogen generation, but the other sources also cannot be neglected. The containment failure probability due to the hydrogen burning lies within 6% in case of Kori unit 2.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.42 no.6
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• pp.457-464
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• 2009

This paper proposes methodologies for analyzing the accuracy of the proportional hazards model in predicting consecutive break times of water mains and estimating the time interval for economical water main replacement. By using the survival functions that are based on the proportional hazards models a criterion for the prediction of the consecutive pipe breaks is determined so that the prediction errors are minimized. The criterion to predict pipe break times are determined as the survival probability of 0.70 and only the models for the third through the seventh break are analyzed to be reliable for predicting break times for the case study pipes. Subsequently, the criterion and the estimated lower and upper bound survival functions of consecutive breaks are used in predicting the lower and upper bounds of the 95% confidence interval of future break times of an example water main. Two General Pipe Break Prediction Models(GPBMs) are estimated for an example pipe using the two series of recorded and predicted lower and upper bound break times. The threshold break rate is coupled with the two GPBMs and solved for time to obtain the economical replacement time interval.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.108-108
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• 2018

상수관의 노후화 혹은 공사 중 작업자의 실수, 또는 자연재해 등에 의해 상수관망 내 파손 관이 발생할 경우 파손된 관의 보수 및 교체 작업을 위해서는 파손 관과 인접한 밸브를 차폐하게 된다. 이로 인하여 관망의 일부 지역에 물 공급이 차단되는 단수구역이 발생하게 되며, 단수구역은 밸브를 닫음으로 인해 파손 관과 함께 격리되는 직접고립지역(segment)과 직접고립지역을 차폐함으로써 의도치 않게 수원으로부터 물 공급이 차단되는 간접고립지역(unintended isolation)으로 구분할 수 있다. 간접고립지역은 차폐된 직접고립지역으로 인해 수원으로부터의 유일한 용수공급 노선이 차단되어 발생한다. 관 파손에 의한 단수 피해를 현실적으로 모의하기 위해서는 밸브위치에 따른 단수구역을 정확히 산정할 필요가 있다. 단수구역은 파손관의 위치뿐만 아니라 차단 밸브의 개수 및 위치에 따라 달라진다. 따라서, 관 파손에 의한 단수피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 각 관로의 파손확률과 절점의 중요도를 고려하여, 적절한 밸브의 위치를 선정해야 한다. 본 연구에서는 관 파손에 따른 단수상황을 모의하여 파손 관에 의한 직, 간접 단수구역을 탐색한 후, 단수용량을 파악하고 이를 최소화하기 위한 밸브의 적정 위치를 최적화 알고리즘을 이용하여 결정하는 방안을 제시하였다.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2004.04a
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• pp.54-59
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• 2004

In this paper probabilistic fracture mechanics(PFM) approach is employed to evaluate the integrity of CANDU Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes. Modified failure assessment diagram(Jr-FAD), plastic collapse, and critical crack length(CCL) approach are used for evaluating failure probability of the tubes. Jr-FAD was extended from the Kr-FAD because fracture of pressure tubes occurs in brittle manner due to hydrogen embrittlement of material by deuterium fluence. For developing the probabilistic integrity evaluation module, AECL procedures and fracture toughness parameters of EPRI were used.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.38 no.6
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• pp.669-676
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• 2014

A three-way catalyst substrate for domestic passenger car satisfies the design criteria for exhaust gas exchange and pressure drop but does not have satisfactory thermal fatigue performance. Prefracture faults in this three-way catalyst substrate has often been discovered in vehicle repair or vehicle inspection facilities. This paper presents a thermal fatigue performance estimation method for a three-way catalyst substrate using a probabilistic strength reduction factor model. This method is superior to the thermal fatigue performance estimation method for a three-way catalyst substrate that uses a deterministic strength model.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.2401-2406
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• 2015

Pipelines are used by large heavy industries to deliver various types of fluids. Since this is important to maintain the performance of large systems, it is necessary to accurately predict remaining life of the corroded pipeline. However, predicting the remaining life is difficult due to uncertainties in the associated variables, such as geometries, material properties, corrosion rate, etc. In this paper, a statistical method for predicting corrosion remaining life is proposed using Bayesian inference. To accomplish this, pipeline failure probability was calculated using prior information about pipeline failure pressure according to elapsed time, and the given experimental data based on Bayes' rule. The corrosion remaining life was calculated as the elapsed time with 10 % failure probability. Using 10 and 50 samples generated from random variables affecting the corrosion of the pipe, the pipeline failure probability was estimated, after which the estimated remaining useful life was compared with the assumed true remaining useful life.