Browse > Article
http://dx.doi.org/10.5762/KAIS.2015.16.4.2401

Statistical Life Prediction of Corroded Pipeline Using Bayesian Inference  

Noh, Yoojeong (Department of Automotive and Mechanical Engineering, Keimyung University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society / v.16, no.4, 2015 , pp. 2401-2406 More about this Journal
Abstract
Pipelines are used by large heavy industries to deliver various types of fluids. Since this is important to maintain the performance of large systems, it is necessary to accurately predict remaining life of the corroded pipeline. However, predicting the remaining life is difficult due to uncertainties in the associated variables, such as geometries, material properties, corrosion rate, etc. In this paper, a statistical method for predicting corrosion remaining life is proposed using Bayesian inference. To accomplish this, pipeline failure probability was calculated using prior information about pipeline failure pressure according to elapsed time, and the given experimental data based on Bayes' rule. The corrosion remaining life was calculated as the elapsed time with 10 % failure probability. Using 10 and 50 samples generated from random variables affecting the corrosion of the pipe, the pipeline failure probability was estimated, after which the estimated remaining useful life was compared with the assumed true remaining useful life.
Keywords
Bayesian inference; Corrosion remaining life; Failure pressure; Pipeline failure probability;
Citations & Related Records
연도 인용수 순위
  • Reference
1 F. Caleyo, J. L. Gonzalez, J. M.. Hallen, "A Study on the Reliability Assessment Methodology for Pipelines with Active Corrosion Defects", International Journal of Pressure and Piping, Vol. 79, No. 1, pp. 77-86, 2002. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0308-0161(01)00124-7   DOI
2 M. Ahammed, "Probabilistic Estimation of Remaining Life of a Pipeline in the Presence of Active Corrosion Defects", International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping, Vol. 75, No. 4, pp. 321-329, 1998. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0308-0161(98)00006-4   DOI
3 M. Ahammed, R. E. Melchers, "Reliability Estimation of Pressurized Pipelines Subjected to Localized Corrosion Defects", International Journal of Pressure Vessels & Piping, Vol. 69, pp.267-272, 1996. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0308-0161(96)00009-9   DOI
4 A. A. Mokhtar, M. C. Ismail, "Probabilistic Reliability Assessment of an Insulated Piping in the Presence of Corrosion Defects", Journal of Applied Science, Vol. 11, pp. 2063-2067, 2011. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3923/jas.2011.2063.2067   DOI
5 S. X. Li, H. L. Zeng, S. R., Yu, X. Zhai, S. P. Chen,, R. Liang, L. Yu, "A Method of Probabilistic Analysis for Steel Pipeline with Correlated Corrosion Defects," Corrosion Science, Vol. 51, No. 12, pp. 3050-3056, 2009. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.corsci.2009.08.033   DOI
6 S. X., Li, S. R., Yu, H. L. Zeng, J. H. Li, L. Liang, "Predicting Corrosion Remaining Life of Underground Pipelines with a Mechanically-based Probabilistic Model," Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, Vol. 65, No. 3-4, pp. 162-166, 2009. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.petrol.2008.12.023   DOI
7 J. M. Karandikar, N. H. Kim, T. L. Schmitz, "Prediction of Remaining Usefull Life for Fatigue-damaged Structures Using Bayesian Inference", Engineering Fracture Mechanics, Vol. 96, pp. 588-605, 2012. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.engfracmech.2012.09.013   DOI
8 A. Gelman, J. B. Carlin, H. S. Stern, D. B. Rubin. Bayesian data analysis. 2nd ed. Boca Raton (FL): Chapman and Hall/CRC Press, 2009.
9 F. J. Klever, G. Stewart, New Developments in Burst Strength Predictions for Locally Corrodes Pipes, Shell International Research, 1995.