• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.21 no.6
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• pp.46-55
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• 2020

The maintenance cost for highway pavement is gradually increasing due to the continuous increase in road extension as well as increase in the number of old routes that have passed the public period. As a result, there is a need for a method of minimizing costs through preventative grievance Preventive maintenance requires the establishment of a strategic plan through accurate prediction old Highway pavement. herefore, in this study, the XGBoost among machine learning classification-based models was used to develop a highway pavement damage prediction model. First, we solved the imbalanced data issue through data sampling, then developed a predictive model using the XGBoost. This predictive model was evaluated through performance indicators such as accuracy and F1 score. As a result, the over-sampling method showed the best performance result. On the other hand, the main variables affecting road damage were calculated in the order of the number of years of service, ESAL, and the number of days below the minimum temperature -2 degrees Celsius. If the performance of the prediction model is improved through more data accumulation and detailed data pre-processing in the future, it is expected that more accurate prediction of maintenance-required sections will be possible. In addition, it is expected to be used as important basic information for estimating the highway pavement maintenance budget in the future.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.7 no.4 s.26
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• pp.1-8
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• 2005

Permanent Deformation is one of the most important load-related pavement distresses in asphalt pavements. The Korean Pavement Design Guide currently being developed adopted the mechanistic-empirical approach and needed the pavement distress prediction models. This study intends to develop the model for prediction of permanent deformation in the asphalt layer and estimate the pavement performance. The objectives of this paper are to figure out the factors affecting the permanent deformation and then develop the permanent deformation prediction model for asphalt mixtures. The repeated triaxial load test was Performed on the 19mm dense graded asphalt mixture with variation of temperature and air void. Results from the laboratory tests showed that temperature and air void in asphalt mixtures have significantly influenced on the factors in prediction model. The permanent deformation prediction model for 19m dense grade asphalt mixtures has been developed using the multiple regression approach and validated the proposed permanent deformation prediction model.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.4 no.4 s.14
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• pp.1-12
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• 2002

Pavement Management System has a special purpose that the rehabilitation strategy applied on pavement should be executable in view of technical and economical point after new pavement open to the traffic. To achieve that purpose, a reliable pavement performance prediction model should be embeded in the system. The object of this study is to develop a probabilistic pavement performance prediction model for evaluating asphalt pavements based on the Markov chain concept. In this paper, methodology of the Markov chain modeling principle is explained, and the application of this model to asphalt pavement is described. As the results, transition matrics for predicting asphalt pavement performance are obtained, and also performance life is estimated quantitatively by this system.

• Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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• 2003.11a
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• pp.1186-1191
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• 2003

The 40% of wall criterion, which is generally used for the plugging of steam generator tubes, may be applied only to a single crack. In the previous study, a total of 9 failure models were introduced to estimate the local failure of the ligament between cracks and the optimum coalescence model of multiple collinear cracks was determined among these models. It is, however, known that parallel axial cracks are more frequently detected during an in-service inspection than collinear axial cracks. The objective of this study is to determine the plastic collapse model which can be applied to the steam generator tube containing two parallel axial through-wall cracks. Nine previously proposed local failure models were selected as the candidates. Subsequently interaction effects between two adjacent cracks were evaluated to screen them. Plastic collapse tests for the plate with two parallel through-wall cracks and finite element analyses were performed for the determination of the optimum plastic collapse model. By comparing the test results with the prediction results obtained from the candidate models, a plastic zone contact model was selected as an optimum model.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.4 no.3 s.13
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• pp.1-13
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• 2002

Design methods for new flexible pavements and overlays are in the transition from empirical to mechanistic approach, and many state highway agencies trend to move toward the adoption and use of mechanistic-empirical (M-E) design in new constructions and rehabilitations of flexible pavements. Hence, the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT) decided to develop a M-E flexible pavement design procedure, in which major pavement distresses such as fatigue cracking and rutting are employed as indicators of the serviceability of a flexible pavement. The main concept of the developed design procedure is that a designed pavement that is supposed to carry a certain number of traffic must satisfy designated thresholds of rut depths and fatigue lives during a service period. For the M-E design procedure, transfer functions were developed to predict rut-depths and fatigue lives. These functions related the pavement responses to pavement performance. For validation, three current new flexible pavement design cases were obtained from the MDOT. In these cases, asphalt concrete (AC) layer thicknesses determined by the suggested M-E procedure compare favorably with those determined by the current MDOT design practice that is based on AASHTO design guide. This finding implies that the suggested Michigan M-E flexible pavement design procedure can provide a good opportunity to improve the current design practice.

• Composites Research
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• v.16 no.6
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• pp.1-9
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• 2003

In this paper, probabilistic failure analysis based on Weibull distribution function is proposed to predict the fiber strength of composite pressure vessel. And, experimental tests were performed using fiber strand specimens, unidirectional laminate specimens and composite pressure vessels to confirm the volumetric size effect on the fiber strength. As an analytical method, the Weibull weakest link model and the sequential multi-step failure model are considered and mutually compared. The volumetric size effect shows the clearly observed tendency towards fiber strength degradation with increasing stressed volume. Good agreement of fiber strength distribution was shown between test data and predicted results for unidirectional laminate and hoop ply in pressure vessel. The site effect on fiber strength depends on material and processing factors, the reduction of fiber strength due to the stressed volume shows different values according to the variation of material and processing conditions.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.57-64
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• 2009

This study intends to evaluate of the characteristics of pavement deformation and develop the model for prediction model in the asphalt layer using a regression analysis. In test, there are two different asphalt binders and 5 different aggregate types. The air voids of hot mix asphalt are 6% and 10% for target value. Repeated triaxial compression test with 3 different confining pressures was used for test at 3 different test temperatures. It is going to verify the main parameters for permanent deformation of HMA and to develop the distress model. This paper is to figure out the factor affecting the pavement deformation, and then to develop model the pavement deformation for asphalt mixture. Also, the reliability of prediction model has been studied. The permanent deformation prediction model for asphalt mixtures with temperature, loading time, and air voids has been developed and the proposed permanent deformation prediction model has been validated by using the multiple regression approach which is called Statistical Package for the Social Sciences(SPSS).

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.38 no.7
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• pp.727-734
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• 2014

This paper describes multi-scale based ductile fracture simulation using finite element (FE) damage analysis. The maximum and crack initiation loads of cracked components were predicted using proposed virtual testing method. To apply the local approach criteria for ductile fracture, stress-modified fracture strain model was adopted as the damage criteria with modified calibration technique that only requires tensile and fracture toughness test data. Element-size-dependent critical damage model is also introduced to apply the proposed ductile fracture simulation to large-scale components. The results of the simulation were compared with those of the tests on SA333 Gr. 6 full-scale pipes at $288^{\circ}C$, performed by the Battelle Memorial Institute.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.48 no.7
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• pp.505-511
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• 2020

The circular composite tubes have been used as a main spar of HALE-UAV(High Altitude Long Endurance-Unmanned Air Vehicle). In this paper, an analytical model is presented for the prediction of the failure load of unsymmetrically stiffened circular spar using a modified Brazier approach. This model was used to predict the moment carrying capacity of the unsymmetrically stiffened circular spar. From the results, we can know that a stiffened cap placed in the top sector of a spar increased the bending capabilities. Four point bending tests were conducted to estimate the effect of the cap on the failure load and compared with the proposed model. And numerical simulations were performed to analyze the behavior of stiffened circular spar. Comparisons of the results from the proposed model with those from experiments and numerical modes show good correlation.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.25-33
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• 2003

The failure load and mode of the unidirectional and fabric hybrid composite laminate joints are studied by test and finite element analysis. Test is conducted for the specimens with nine various geometries under pin loading. Finite element analysis is performed considering the contact and friction effects between the pin and laminate by MSC/NASTRAN. Failure is estimated by Tsai-Wu and Yamada-Sun criteria on the characteristic curve. While the failure of the specimens with the small width and edge length are much affected by the joint geometry, the geometry effects are negligible in the specimens with large width and edge length. Finite element analysis based on the characteristic length method reasonably predicts the failure load and mode of the joints.