• Title/Summary/Keyword: 파괴확률

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A Study on Characteristics of the Desiccation Shrinkage in Reclaimed Hydraulic Fills (준설매립지반의 건조수축특성에 관한 연구)

  • 홍병만;김상규;김석열;김승욱;김홍택;강인규
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.219-238
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    • 1999
  • In the present study, laboratory tests including the seepage-induced consolidation test, suction test, and desiccation shrinkage test are performed to investigate characteristics of the desiccation shrinkage in reclaimed hydraulic fills. Soil samples for laboratory tests are obtained from three sites (districts of Haenam, Kogeum and Koheung in Chunnam area). Desiccation shrinkage settlement caused by three dimensional volume change is numerically evaluated using finite difference technique based on the governing equation proposed by Abu-Hejleh & Znidarcic. Also characteristics of the desiccation shrinkage analyzed from the test results are used as input data for numerical evaluations. Further predicted total settlements including the self-weight consolidation settlement are compared with values measured at the site of Haenam district. Finally, effects of parameters related to the desiccation shrinkage on settlements are examined.

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Performance Comparison of Heuristics for Weapon-Target Assignment Problem with Transitivity Rules in Weapon's Kill Probability (무장 할당문제에서 휴리스틱 방법 효율성 비교: 이행성 규칙이 성립하는 무장성능차이를 중심으로)

  • Yim, Dong-Soon;Choi, Bong-Wan
    • Journal of the military operations research society of Korea
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.29-42
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the weapon-target assignment problem arising in military application of operations research is considered. We reformulated the problem in order to simplify the solution methods based on genetic algorithms and heuristics. Since the problem is well known as NP-complete and cannot be solved in polynomial time, such solution methods have been widely used to obtain good solutions. Two chromosome representations--target number representation and permutation representation--in genetic algorithm are compared. In addition, a construction heuristic and three improving heuristics are developed. Several experiments under the condition of transitivity rules in weapon's kill probability have been accomplished. It shows that the construction heuristic and exchange-based improving heuristic guarantees good solutions within a second and the performance of construction heuristic is sensitive to transitivity rules.

Dynamic Response based System Reliability Analysis of Structure with Passive Damper - Part 2: Assessment of System Failure Probability (수동형 댐퍼를 장착한 구조물의 동적응답기반 신뢰성 해석 - 제2편: 시스템 파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Min;Ok, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.95-101
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a multi-scale dynamic system reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this second paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the structure-level failure. Since the failure of one structural member does not necessarily cause the collapse of the structural system, we need to consider a set of failure scenarios of the structural system and compute the sum of the failure probabilities of the failure scenarios where the statistical dependence between the failure scenarios should be taken into account. Therefore, this computation requires additional system reliability analysis. As a result, the proposed approach takes a hierarchial framework where the failure probability of a structural member is computed using a lower-scale system reliability with the union set of time-sequential member failures and their statistical dependence, and the failure probability of the structural system is again computed using a higher-scale system reliability with the member failure probabilities obtained by the lower-scale system reliability and their statistical dependence. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can provide an accurate and stable reliability assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system on the system failure. Also, the parametric study of damper capacity on the seismic performance has been performed to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach through the probabilistic assessment of the seismic performance improvement of the damper system.

Dynamic Response based Reliability Analysis of Structure with Passive Damper - Part 1: Assessment of Member Failure Probability (수동형 댐퍼를 장착한 구조물의 동적응답기반 신뢰성 해석 - 제1편: 부재별 파괴확률 산정)

  • Kim, Seung-Min;Ok, Seung-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.90-96
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    • 2016
  • This study proposes a dynamic reliability analysis of control system as a method of quantitative evaluation of its performance in probabilistic terms. In this dynamic reliability analysis, the failure event is defined as an event that the dynamic response of the structural system exceeds a displacement limit, whereas the conventional reliability analysis method has limitations that do not properly assess the actual time history response of the structure subjected to dynamic loads, such as earthquakes and high winds, by taking the static response into account in the failure event. In this first paper, we discuss the control effect of the viscous damper on the seismic performance of the member-level failure where the failure event of the structural member consists of the union set of time-sequential member failures during the earthquake excitations and the failure probability of the earthquake-excited structural member is computed using system reliability approach to consider the statistical dependence of member failures between the subsequent time points. Numerical results demonstrate that the proposed approach can present a reliable assessment of the control performance of the viscous damper system in comparison with MCS method. The most important advantage of the proposed approach can provide us more accurate estimate of failure probability of the structural control system by using the actual time-history responses obtained by dynamic response analysis.

Effects of the Recorded Earthquake Data on the Seismic Fragilities of Korean Nuclear Power Plant Structures (한반도 기록지진의 특성이 원자력발전소 구조물의 지진취약도에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Joe, Yang-Hee;Cho, Sung-Gook
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.321-331
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    • 2003
  • Seismic fragility analysis (SFA) has been utilized to evaluate the actual seismic capacity of structure and equipment in nuclear power plants (NPP). This paper briefly introduces an improved method for evaluating seismic fragilities of components of NPP's in Korea. Engineering characteristics of small magnitude earthquake spectra recorded in the Korean peninsula during the last several years are also discussed in this paper. Some significant differences between the Newmark's spectra and the recorded spectra as a site-dependent spectra are assessed. Several comparative SFA's have been performed to evaluate the effects of the recorded earthquakes on the seismic capacities of Korean NPP structures. The results showed that SFA using the Newmark's spectra might over estimate the actual seismic capacities of Korean facilities.

A Three Dimensional Study on the Probability of Slope Failure(II) (사면(斜面)의 삼차원(三次元) 파괴확률(破壞確率)에 관(關)한 연구(硏究)(II))

  • Kim, Young-Su;Tcha, Hong-Jun;Jung, Sung-Kwan
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.3
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 1983
  • The probability of failure is used to analyze the reliability of three dimensional slope failure, instead of conventional factor of safety. The strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated. These are interval estimated under the specified confidence level and maximum likelihood estimation. The pseudonormal and beta random variables are generated using the uniform probability transformation method according to central limit theorem and rejection method. By means of a Monte-Carlo Simulation, the probability of failure is defined as; Pf=M/N N : Total number of trials M : Total number of failures Some of the conclusions derived from the case study include; 1. Three dimensional factors of safety are generally much higher than 2-D factors of safety. However situations appear to exist where the 3-D factor of safety can be lower than the 2-D factor of safety. 2. The F3/F2 ratio appears to be quite sensitive to c and ${\phi}$ and to the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope but not to be to the unit weight of soil. 3. In cases that strength parameters are assumed to be normal variated and beta variated, the relationships between safety factor and the probability of failure are fairly consistent, regardless of the shape of the 3-D shear surface and the slope. 4. As the c-value is increased, the probability of failure for the same safety factor is increased and as the ${\phi}-value$ is increased, the probability of failure for the same safety factor is decreased.

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A Comparative Study on Structural Reliability Analysis Methods (구조 신뢰성 해석방법의 고찰)

  • 양영순;서용석
    • Computational Structural Engineering
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.109-116
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    • 1994
  • In this paper, various reliability analysis methods for calculating a probability of failure are investigated for their accuracy and efficiency. Crude Monte Carlo method is used as a basis for the comparison of various numerical results. For the sampling methods, Importance Sampling method and Directional Simulation method are considered for overcoming a drawback of Crude Monte Carlo method. For the approximate methods, conventional Rackwitz-Fiessler method. 3-parameter Chen-Lind method, and Rosenblatt transformation method are compared on the basis of First order reliability method. As a Second-order reliability method, Curvature-Fitting paraboloid method, Point-fitting paraboloid method, and Log-likelihood function method are explored in order to verify the accuracy of the reliability calculation results. These methods mentioned above would have some difficulty unless the limit state equation is expressed explicitly in terms of random design variables. Thus, there is a need to develop some general reliability methods for the case where an implicit limit state equation is given. For this purpose, Response surface method is used where the limit state equation is approximated by regression analysis of the response surface outcomes resulted from the structural analysis. From the application of these various reliability methods to three examples, it is found that Directional Simulation method and Response Surface method are very efficient and recommendable for the general reliability analysis problem cases.

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Fatigue Strength Analysis and Reliability Analysis of D/H VLCC (D/H VLCC의 피로강도해석과 피로 신뢰성해석)

  • Yang, P.D.C.;Lee, J.S.;Yoon, J.H.;Seo, Y.S.
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.64-74
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    • 1997
  • The necessity and importance of fatigue failure to variable load has been appreciated as the structural design technique develops and use of high tensile steel is increasing. This is much more appreciated for a large ship such as VLCC. The rigorous fatigue analysis and safety assessment should be, hence, carried out at the design stage to avoid the possibility of fatigue failure and to achieve the design result having a sufficient structural safety to fatigue strength. This paper deals with an efficient spectral fatigue analysis of ship structures by introducing the concept of stress influence coefficient. In the process included are probabilistic loading analysis, evaluation of long-term distribution of stress range and estimation of fatigue life applying the spectral fatigue analysis. An integrated computer program has been developed in which reliability analysis to fatigue strength is also included and has been applied to D/H VLCC.

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Estimation of Bending Fatigue Life of CWR in Concrete Track (콘크리트궤도 장대레일의 휨 피로수명 평가)

  • Sung, Deok-Yong;Tae, Sung-Sik;Park, Kwang-Hwa;Kong, Sun-Yong;Park, Yong-Gul
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2010.06a
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    • pp.64-71
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    • 2010
  • It is suggested that the service life of the continuous welded rail(CWR) is estimated by the relationship between the rail surface irregularity according to the accumulated passing tonnage and bending fatigue of welded part in CWR. In this study, based on the results of bending fatigue tests of rail and results of measuring tests in situ of rail bending stress, this study estimated the bending fatigue life of welded rail in concrete track, adopting a Haibach's rule. The bending fatigue life of CWR considered the rail surface irregularity, train speed and the S-N curve by types of rail welding. In addition, this study estimated it for the fracture probability 1%, 0.1%, 0.01%. Therefore, this study proposed bending fatigue life of CWR in concrete track.

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A Reliability Analysis of Rigid Retaining Wall due to the Modes of Wall Movement (벽체변위에 따른 토류벽의 신뢰도해석)

  • Jae, Yeong-Su;Kim, Yong-Pil;Song, Yong-Seon
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.7-16
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    • 1988
  • The safety factor has been used widely and uniquely at present to check the safety of the structure . However, probability of failure would be logically attempted to check the reliability of the structure in future Coulomb's theory or Rankine's theory has been applied in practice to retaining earth structure in spite of the fact that the lateral earth pressure, which is the primary factor in the determination of wall structure, depends on the modes of wall movement . This study is concentrated on the two modes of , wall movement (active case rotation about bottom(AB) , active case rotation about top(AT)) of the overturning'failure of vertical wall with horizontal sand backfill . The static active earth pressure is determined by applying each of Coulomb's theory, Dubrova's redistribution theory and Chang's method The earthquake active earth pressure is determined by adding Seed and Whitman's earthquake pressure to the static earth pressure , On the condition that design variables are fixed with each of the above earth pressure, reliability is analyzed using the recently developed method of AFOSM (Advanced First Order Second Moment)

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