• Title/Summary/Keyword: 파괴확률

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A Segment-based Minimum Cutset Method for Estimating the Reliability of Water Distribution Systems (상수관망의 신뢰도 산정을 위한 Segment 기반의 Minimum Cutset 방법)

  • Jun, Hwan-Don;Park, Jae-Il;Baek, Chun-Woo;Kim, Joong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.40 no.9
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    • pp.735-742
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    • 2007
  • In this study, a methodology which is based on segments and minimum outsets to estimate the reliability of a real water distribution system efficiently and accurately is suggested. The current reliability assessment models based on minimum cutset consider a pipe as only area impacted by a pipe failure which incurs underestimation of pipe failure impact. In contrary, the suggested methodology adopts "segment" and "unintended isolation" with the hydraulic pressure failure area to define the actual service interruption area in a water distribution system due to a pipe failure, which is different from the Previous reliability estimating methodologies. In addition, a minimum cutset is defined as a single segment incurring abnormal operating conditions and the success mode approach is used to account for the probability of multiple failure combinations of minimum outsets. The model considers numbers and locations of on-off valves when the service interruption area is defined. Once the methodology is applied to a real water distribution system, it is possible to define actual service interruption areas and using the defined areas, the reliability of the water distribution system is estimated reliably, compared with the previous reliability assessment methodologies.

The structural safety diagnosis of Dabo Pagoda of Bulkuk Temple using analyses of ultrasonic wave velocity (초음파 속도 분석을 통한 불국사 다보탑 구조 안전 진단)

  • Suh, Man-Cheol;Song, In-Sun;Choi, Hui-Soo
    • Journal of the Korean Geophysical Society
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.199-209
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    • 2002
  • We have carried out a nondestructive close examination for the purpose of the structural safety diagnosis of the Dabo Pagoda of Bulkuk temple located in Kyungju, Kyungbuk Korea. For estimating the mechanical properties of each rock block of the pagoda, ultrasonic measurements were conducted at 641 points of 255 blocks. The P-wave velocity ranges from 584m/sec through 5,169m/sec, and averages 2,901m/sec Based on this result, the uniaxial compressive strength was estimated to be $93{\sim}1,943kg/cm^2\;with\;396kg/cm^2$ of average, and the index of weathering is $0.07{\sim}0.88$ with 0.43 of average, which means the moderate degree of weathering. The comparison of the rock strength of each block with the overburden acting on the block reveals that the rock blocks related to the structure of the pagoda are relatively sound for uniform stress, but it is highly possible for a concentrated stress to lead to a partial failure. We suggest a monitoring of cracks due to the concentrated stress. The parapets of 1st and 2nd floors composed of small rock pieces are severely weathered. However, this is not directly related to the structural safety of the pagoda.

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Target Reliability Index of Single Gravel Compaction Piles for Limit State Design (한계상태설계를 위한 단일 쇄석다짐말뚝의 목표신뢰도지수)

  • You, Youngkwon;Lim, Heuidae;Park, Joonmo
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.5-15
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    • 2014
  • Target reliability index in the limit state design indicated the safety margin and it is important to determine the partial factor. To determine the target reliability index which is needed in the limit state design, the six design and construction case histories of gravel compaction piles (GCP) were investigated. The limit state functions were defined by bulging failure for the major failure mode of GCP. The reliability analysis were performed using the first order reliability method (FORM) and the reliability index was calculated for each ultimate bearing capacity formulation. The reliability index of GCP tended to be penportional to the safety factor of allowable stress design and average value was ${\beta}$=2.30. Reliability level that was assessed by reliability analysis and target reliability index for existing structure foundations were compared and analyzed. As a result, The GCP was required a relatively low level of safety compared with deep and shallow foundations and the currd t reliability level were similar to the target reliability in the reinforced earth retaining-wall and soil-nailing. Therefore the target reliability index of GCP suggested as ${\beta}_T$=2.33 by various literatures together with the computed reliability level in this study.

The Fatigue Life Evaluation of Continuous Welded Rail on a Concrete Track in an Urban Railway (도시철도 콘크리트궤도 장대레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kong, Sung-Yong;Sung, Deok-Yong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.193-200
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    • 2014
  • In this study, fatigue tests on existing continuous welded rail (CWR) on a concrete track were carried out. Based on the test results, a S-N curve expressing the remaining life of the CWR at a fracture probability of 50% was obtained using weighted probit analysis suitable for small-sample fatigue data sets. As rails had different histories in terms of accumulated passing tonnage, the test data were corrected to average out the accumulated passing tonnage. The remaining service life for the CWR on the concrete track in an urban railway was estimated using the prediction equation for the bending stress of rail developed in the past to estimate rail base bending stress and taking the surface irregularities into consideration. Estimating the remaining service life of the CWR in an urban railway showed that the rail replacement period could be extended over 200MGT. In addition, comparing the concrete track to the ballast track, the fatigue life of rail was analyzed as approximately 300MGT higher than. Therefore, the rail replacement criteria needs to distinguish between the ballast track and the concrete track, and not the criteria needs to be changed as a target for the maintenance, although it is necessary to remove longitudinal rail surface irregularities at welds by grinding.

The Fatigue Life Evaluation of Aged Continuous Welded Rail on the Urban Railway (도시철도 장기 사용레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kong, Sun-Young;Sung, Deok-Yong;Park, Yong-Gul
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.821-831
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    • 2013
  • As a result of recent research, it is reported that the periodic replacements criterion of rails is able to extend as grinding rail surface and using the continuous welded rail (CWR). In this study, we carried out fatigue tests on existing laid rails. Based on the test results, an S-N curve expressing the remaining life of laid rails at a fracture probability of 50% was obtained using weighted probit analysis suitable for small-sample fatigue data sets. As rails used for testing had different histories in terms of accumulated tonnage, the test data were corrected to average out the accumulated tonnage. We estimated the remaining service lives for laid rails on the urban railway using equations developed in the past to estimate rail base bending stress and that surface irregularities into consideration. Therefore, estimating the remaining service life of laid rails showed that the rail replacement period could be extended over 200 MGT, although it is necessary to remove longitudinal rail surface irregularities at welds by grinding. Also, the fatigue test results under fatigue limit, Haibach's rule appling half slope of S-N curve under the fatigue limit was considered more reasonable than modified Miner's rule for estimating rail fatigue life.

Fatigue Life Evaluation for Used Rail on Track Types (궤도형식별 사용레일의 피로수명 평가)

  • Kang, Sung Won;Lim, Hyung-Jun;Park, Yong-Gul
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.649-657
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    • 2017
  • In this study, fatigue testing was carried out for long-term use of rail according to track type. From S-N curves for 50%~0.01% failure probability, the fatigue life of the long-term use rail for each track type was derived using the weight probability analysis technique on the experimental data. Because the rails used in the fatigue test have different cumulative tonnages, the number of repetitions was modified by averaging the cumulative tonnage. In addition, the bending stresses of rail bottoms, considering rail surface irregularities, track support stiffnesses and train speeds, were evaluated using the predicted rail bending stresses derived from existing studies. As a result, for rail fatigue life evaluation, the fatigue life of rail on the ballast track was found to be more than 200 million tons higher than the standard value for rail replacement. Also, the fatigue life of rail on concrete track is more than 300 million tons higher than that on ballast track. The Haibach rule is adaptable for the fatigue life evaluation of rail for stress range under fatigue limit.

Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of RC Frame Structures Using 3D Analytical Models (3차원 해석 모델을 이용한 RC 프레임 구조물의 지진 취약도 평가)

  • Moon, Do-Soo;Lee, Young-Joo;Lee, Sangmok
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.17 no.9
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    • pp.724-731
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    • 2016
  • As the structural damage caused by earthquakes has been gradually increasing, estimating the seismic fragility of structures has become essential for earthquake preparation. Seismic fragility curves are widely used as a probabilistic indicator of structural safety against earthquakes, and many researchers have made efforts to develop them in a more accurate and effective manner. However, most of the previous research studies used simplified 2D analytical models when deriving fragility curves, mainly to reduce the numerical simulation time; however, in many cases 2D models are inadequate to accurately evaluate the seismic behavior of a structure and its seismic vulnerability. Thus, this study provides a way to derive more accurate, but still effective, seismic fragility curves by using 3D analytical models. In this method, the reliability analysis software, FERUM, is integrated with the structural analysis software, ZEUS-NL, enabling the automatic exchange of data between these two software packages, and the first order reliability method (FORM), which is not a sampling-based method, is utilized to calculate the structural failure probabilities. These tools make it possible to conduct structural reliability analyses effectively even with 3D models. By using the proposed method, this study conducted a seismic vulnerability assessment of RC frame structures with their 3D analytical models.

A Study on Seismic Capacity Assessment of Long-Span Suspension Bridges by Construction Methods Considering Earthquake Characteristics (지진특성을 고려한 장경간 현수교량의 시공방안별 내진성능 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Sung Ho;Jang, Sun Jae;Lim, Nam Hyung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.30 no.2A
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    • pp.93-102
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    • 2010
  • The numerical analysis and safety assessment by construction stages were considered the essential examination particular in order to solving the unstability of long-span bridges in the middle a construction. When estimating structural response characteristics by the construction stage analysis of long-span bridges, the influence of the near-field ground motion (NFGM) would be evaluated as a critical factor for the seismic design because it indicates clearly different aspects from the existing input earthquake motion data. Therefore, this study re-examined the response aspect of long-span bridges considering NFGM characteristics based on the response spectrum result, and advanced the presented numerical analysis program by the related research for conducting the construction stage analysis and reliability assessment of long-span bridges efficiently. The excellency of various construction schemes was assessed using the time history analysis result of critical member considering NFGM characteristics. For evaluating quantitative safety level, the reliability analysis was conducted considering the influence of external uncertainties included in random variables, and presented the safety index and failure probability of the critical construction stage by NFGM characteristics. In addition, the reliability result was examined the influence of internal uncertainties using monte carlo simulation (MCS), and assessed the distribution aspect of the essential analysis result. It is expected that this study will provide the basic information for the construction safety improvement when performing seismic design of long-span bridges considering NFGM characteristics.

Evaluation of Fatigue Life of Welded Joint of Gear Box-Shank in Vibro Ripper Using P-S-N Curve (P-S-N선도를 이용한 진동리퍼 기어박스-생크 용접부의 피로수명 평가)

  • Oh, Kwang Keun;Kim, JaeHoon;Park, Jung Yeol;Yang, GyuSang;Park, JongWon;Kim, Sung Hyun
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.39 no.12
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    • pp.1207-1212
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    • 2015
  • A vibro ripper utilizes high-frequency vibration for rock fragmentation. This concept is different from those used by other existing breakers. The gearbox-shank welded joint of a vibro ripper is a very important part. Because it delivers the vibromotive force to the tooth, it is important to predict its soundness. This study was conducted to predict the fatigue life under welding conditions. The shank materials were Hardox-Hituf and AR400, and the filler metals were CSF-71T and CSF-81T. Fatigue tests were conducted under each set of conditions. P-S-N curves are presented based on the statistical testing method recommended by JSME-S002, and a comparison is made of the results under each set of conditions. The life was estimated using a P-S-N curve.

Calibration of Load and Resistance Factors in KCI Code Based on Domestic Data (국내 통계자료를 이용한 설계기준의 하중저항계수 검증)

  • Kim, Jee-Sang;Kim, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.495-501
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    • 2011
  • The load combinations in current KCI Design Code are determined with reference to those in ACI 318-05, which adopts the LRFD (load and resistance factor design) format. The load and resistance factors in LRFD format should be determined to meet the required levels of reliability index or probability of failure for various predetermined failure modes, which are also based on the statistical data reflecting locality and contemporary situation. However, the current KCI Design Code has been written utilizing foreign data, because of insufficiency in accrued data in Korea. This study considered the current safety levels of KCI Code based on published domestic data to evaluate appropriateness of the current KCI regulations. Based on the calibrated reliability index of the existing Code, the new resistance factors are suggested. The results presented in this paper can be considered as a basic research for establishment of unique design format for future Korean Codes.