• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.123-133
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• 2003

A practical statistical approach that can be used to model various sources of uncertainty systematically is presented in the context of reliability analysis of slope stability. New expressions for probabilistic characterization of soil properties incorporate sampling and measurement errors, as well as spatial variability and its reduced variance due to spatial averaging. The stochastic nature of seismic loading is studied by generating a large series of hazard-compatible artificial motions, and by using them in subsequent response analyses. The analyses indicate that in a seismically less active region such as the Korean Peninsular, a moderate variability in soil properties has an effect as large as the characterization of earthquake hazard on the computed risk of slope failure and excessive slope deformations.

• Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.137-146
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• 1999

Inspection becomes to be important in the safety of structure and economical viewpoint, because structural damage accompanies lots of economical cost and social problems. Especially ship structure is composed of a lot of members and it is impossible to inspect all members continuously. The purpose of this paper is to get optimal inspection plan containing inspection time and method. Crack is one of major modes on the structural failure and can lead to collapse of structure. In this paper, the deteriorating process, which contains inspection to detect the crack before the propagation to large crack, is idealized as Markov chain model. Genetic algorithm is also used to accomplish the optimization of inspection plan. Especially, the probabilistic characteristics of cracks are changed, because ship is operating in corrosive environments and the scantling of structural members is reduced due to corrosion. Non-stationary Markov chain model is used to represent the process of corrosion in structural members. In this paper, the characteristics of indivisual inspection plan are compared by numerical examples for the change of corrosion rate, the cost due to scheduled system down and target failure probability. From the numerical example, it can be seen that the improvement of fatigue life for the members with short fatigue life is the most effective way in order to reduce total maintenance cost.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.7
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• pp.543-554
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• 2018

A methodology has been presented for evaluating the partial safety factors on the sliding failure mode of vertical caissons of composite breakwaters and for determining the cross sections of those by Level I reliability-based design method. Especially, a mathematical model has been suggested for the sake of a consistency of code format as well as convenience of application in practical design, for which the uncertainties associated with buoyancy and its own weight can be taken into account straightforwardly. Furthermore, design criteria equation has been derived by considering accurately the effect of uplift pressure, so that the cross sections of caissons can be assessed which must be safe against the sliding failure. It has been found that cross sections estimated from partial safety factors proposed in this paper are in very good agreement with the results of Level II AFDA and Level III MCS under the same target probability of failure. However, partial safety factors of the Technical Standards and Commentaries for Port and Harbour Facilities in Japan and Coastal Engineering Manual in USA tend to estimate much bigger or smaller cross sections in comparison to the present results. Finally, many reliability re-analyses have been performed in order to conform whether the stability level of cross section estimated by Level I reliability-based design method is satisfied with the target probability of failure of partial safety factors or not.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.19 no.4
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• pp.517-528
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• 2009

Statistical analyses of cut-slope stability were performed over approximately 5.7 km section along the National road No. 25, which cross-cuts in NW-SE direction the Cheongwon and Boeun-Gun area, Chungbuk. A measure of slope-stability was established by using direct reinforcement and indirect protection methods in whole section. Orientations(dip/dip direction) of the slopes, foliations(bedding), cleavages and joints were measured in total of 30 slope sites. The results analyzed using stereographic projection indicate that major directions of the slopes come out predominantly in three directions: 1) $58^{\circ}/095^{\circ}$, 2) $60^{\circ}/296^{\circ}$ and 3) $59^{\circ}/212^{\circ}$. In analyses of dip direction and frequency of cut-slopes established by reinforcement and protection methods, slopes with dip direction of $80-120^{\circ}$ and $280-320^{\circ}$ mostly occur. However, slopes with dip direction of $0-80^{\circ}$(N and NW) and $120-160^{\circ}$(SE) are not distributed in the study area. Failure aspects were analyzed for three major directions of the slopes, respectively. The results of failure aspects analyzed indicate that slopes in the study area could generate various failures as the results of intersection and/or intersection combination among joints, foliations(bedding) and cleavages. However, possibility of failure in a slope of major direction No. 3 is statistically very low because of low frequency in total number of slopes with the direction and of formation of small scale-slopes geographically, although the slope might generate all aspects of failure-modes.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.7 no.2
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• pp.79-88
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• 1987

This study is intended to propose a system reliability analysis model for R.C. bridge superstructures based on the systems reliability theory. Approximately assuming that the ultimate capacity of the superstructures is reached, when two adjacent girders fail subsequently, a practical system reliability model is proposed, which is based on a point estimate for Level II parallel-series system modelling. The sensitivity analysis of system reliabilities for the variation of the coefficients of correlations between the failure modes is performed by applying the proposed model for R.C. T beam bridges. It is observed that the point estimate method for the proposed model corresponds to the average value of the Ditlevsen's bound, and the system reliability index, ${\beta}_s$, varies quite sensitively according to the variation of the cofficients of correlations. Systems reliabilities of a few existing T beam bridges are analyzed by applying the proposed practical system reliability method of this study, and, in addition, the preferable direction of the development of the reliability-based code calibration using the system target reliability index concept are suggested.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.23 no.10
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• pp.97-107
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• 2007

Accurate evaluation of the slope stability by assuming failure block as the entire slope is considered to be apposite for the small scale slope, whereas it is not the case for the large scale slope. Hence, appropriate estimation of a failure block size is required since the safety factor and the joint strength parameters are the function of the failure block size. In this paper, the size of failure block was investigated by generating 3-dimensional rock joint system based on statistical data of joints obtained from research slope, such as joint orientation, spacing and 3-dimensional joint intensity. The result indicates that 33 potential failure blocks exist in research slope, as large as 1.4 meters at least and 38.7 meters at most, and average block height is 15.2 meters. In addition, the data obtained from 3 dimensional joint system were directly applicable to the probability analysis and 2 and 3 dimensional discontinuity analysis.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.20 no.6
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• pp.65-72
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• 2016

Service life evaluation for RC Structures exposed to chloride attack is very important, however the previous two methods(deterministic and probabilistic method) show a big difference. The paper presents a service life simulation using deterministic and probabilistic method with time-dependent diffusion coefficient. Three different cases are considered for diffusion coefficient, concrete cover depth, and surface chloride content respectively, and then the PDF(probability of durability failure) and the related service life are obtained. Through adopting time-dependent diffusion, the discrepancy between the two methods can be reduced, which yields reasonable service life. When diffusion coefficient increases from $2.5{\times}10^{-12}m^2/sec$ to $7.5{\times}10^{-12}m^2/sec$, the service life decreases to 25.5~35.6% level, and cover depth does from 75 mm to 125 mm, it increases to 267~311% level as well. In the case of surface chloride content from $5.0kg/m^3$ to $15.0kg/m^3$, it changes to 40.9~54.5%. The effect of cover depth is higher than the others by 8~10 times and also implies it is a key parameter to service life extension.

• Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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• v.17 no.12
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• pp.55-64
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• 2016

In this paper bearing capacity and safety margin of shallow foundation on weathered soil ground against shear failure by using current design method of allowable stress design (ASD), load resistance factor design (LRFD) based on reliability analysis and partial safety factor design (PSFD) in Eurocode were estimated and compared to each other. Results of the plate loading test used in construction and design were collected and analysis of probability statistics on soil parameters affecting the bearing capacity of shallow foundation was performed to quantify the uncertainty of them and to investigate the resistance bias factor and covalence of ultimate bearing capacity. For the typical sections of shallow foundation in domestic field as examples, reliability index was obtained by reliability analysis (FORM) and the sensitivity analysis on soil parameters of probability variables was performed to investigate the effect of probability variable on shear failure. From stability analysis for these sections by ASD, LRFD with the target reiability index corresponding to the safety factor used in ASD and PSDF, safety margins were estimated respectively and compared.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.39-46
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• 2020

Carbonation is a deterioration which degrades structural and material performance by permitting CO₂ and corrosion of embedded steel. Service life evaluation through deterministic method is conventional, however the researches with probabilistic approach on service life considering loading and cold joint effect on carbonation have been performed very limitedly. In this study, probabilistic service life evaluation was carried out through MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) which adopted random variables such as cover depth, CO₂ diffusion coefficient, exterior CO₂ concentration, and internal carbonatable materials. Probabilistic service life was derived by changing mean value and COV (Coefficient of variation) from 100 % to 300 % and 0.1 ~ 0.2, respectively. From the analysis, maximum reduction ratio (47.7%) and minimum reduction ratio (11.4%) of service life were obtained in cover depth and diffusion coefficient, respectively. In the loading conditions of 30~60% for compressive and tensile stress, GGBFS concrete was effective to reduce cold joint effect on carbonation. In the tensile condition, service life decreased linearly regardless of material types. Additionally service life rapidly decreased due to micro crack propagation in the all cases when 60% loading was considered in compressive condition.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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• 2009.11a
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• pp.154-154
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• 2009

본 연구는 고전압 전력기기인 몰드형변압기와 계기용 변성기인 CT, PT 절연특성에 유용한 Epoxy/Nano-Micro Mixture Composites(이하,ENMMC)를 개발하기위해 무엇보다 중요한 것은 Nano입자인 $SiO_2$_10nm입자의 표면을 제어하여 즉, 표면의 소수성을 크게 하여 나노입자의 균질한 분산을 얻은것이 무엇보다 중요하다. 개발된 Epoxy/$SiO_2$_10nm Nanocomposites와 Microcomposites을 기계적 전단응력을 이용하여 균질 혼합을 실시하였다. 이런 조건을 이용한 전기적특성을 측정하기위해 구대구 전극이 완전함침된 평등전계하에서 절연파괴전압을 측정하기 시편을 제조하였다. 마이크로입자의 충진함량을 일정하게 유지하여 나노입자 충진함량비율을 4가지로 변화시켜 절연파괴특성을 연구하였다. 충진함량이 나노입자의 경우 1wt%이하의 값이 상대적으로 우수한 절연파괴특성으로 와이블 플롯을 통하여 알수있었다. 상대적으로 멀티나노콤포지트의 형상파라미터가 큰 결과값을 얻을수 있었다. 그리고 스케일파리미터는 누적확률 밀도함수로서 63.2%에서 대단히 큰 초절연성의 절연소재를 개발할수 있었다.