• Title/Summary/Keyword: 트랜드 예측

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An Empirical Study on Predictive Modeling to enhance the Product-Technical Roadmap (제품-기술로드맵 개발을 강화하기 위한 예측모델링에 관한 실증 연구)

  • Park, Kigon;Kim, YoungJun
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2021
  • Due to the recent development of system semiconductors, technical innovation for the electric devices of the automobile industry is rapidly progressing. In particular, the electric device of automobiles is accelerating technology development competition among automobile parts makers, and the development cycle is also changing rapidly. Due to these changes, the importance of strategic planning for R&D is further strengthened. Due to the paradigm shift in the automobile industry, the Product-Technical Roadmap (P/TRM), one of the R&D strategies, analyzes technology forecasting, technology level evaluation, and technology acquisition method (Make/Collaborate/Buy) at the planning stage. The product-technical roadmap is a tool that identifies customer needs of products and technologies, selects technologies and sets development directions. However, most companies are developing the product-technical roadmap through a qualitative method that mainly relies on the technical papers, patent analysis, and expert Delphi method. In this study, empirical research was conducted through simulations that can supplement and strengthen the product-technical roadmap centered on the automobile industry by fusing Gartner's hype cycle, cumulative moving average-based data preprocessing, and deep learning (LSTM) time series analysis techniques. The empirical study presented in this paper can be used not only in the automobile industry but also in other manufacturing fields in general. In addition, from the corporate point of view, it is considered that it will become a foundation for moving forward as a leading company by providing products to the market in a timely manner through a more accurate product-technical roadmap, breaking away from the roadmap preparation method that has relied on qualitative methods.

Estimation of the Percent of the Vote by Adjustment of Voter Turnout in Election Polls (선거여론조사에서 투표율 반영을 통한 득표율 추정)

  • Kim, Jeonghoon;Han, Sang-Tae;Kang, Hyuncheol
    • Journal of the Korean Data Analysis Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.2873-2881
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    • 2018
  • It is very important to obtain objective and credible information through election polls in order to contribute to the correct voting behavior of the voters or to establish appropriate election strategies for candidates or political parties. Therefore, many related organizations such as political parties, media organizations, and research institutions have been making efforts to improve the accuracy of the results of the polls and the election prediction. Kim et al. (2017) analyzed whether the non-response group responded that there is no support candidate in the election survey to increase the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate. As a result, it has been confirmed that the accuracy of the estimation of the vote rate can be significantly improved by performing an appropriate classification on the non-response layer. In this study, we propose a method to estimate the turnout by each strata (sex, age group) under the condition that the total turnout rate is given for a specific district (region) and propose a procedure to predict the vote rate by reflecting the turnout. In addition, case studies were conducted using data gathered through telephone interviews for the 20th National Assembly elections in 2016.

Implications of the Increase of Single Person Households for High-Tech Industries: Focusing on AI Adopted Products (1인 가구 증가가 하이테크 산업에서 지니는 함의: 인공지능기술 탑재 상품을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Jae-Yung
    • Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.146-152
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    • 2019
  • This study discussed implications of the increase of single person households (SH) for high-tech industries especially focusing on artificial intelligence (AI) adopted products, based on critically reviewing the past researches on their characteristics including consumption trends; the improvement of AI technology; and its market potentiality in various industries. According to the results, SH spent more time with others like friends and neighbors more than couples. Younger people increasingly chose to live alone by their own free will for achieving their goals. 'Living alone' or 'going solo' is not thought negatively any more, but as a new market power in the future. Considering their value oriented consumption behaviors based on spirit of independence and individualism, they will need high-tech products more like AI adopted products than others because of their advantages for the value of single life. Thus, the rapid progress of AI technology is predicted to bring them satisfaction of their wants and it is suggested to prepare for the market segmentation of SH as AI end-users.

Future Trend Impact Analysis Based on Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS 접근방식에 의한 미래 트랜드 충격 분석)

  • Kim, Yong-Gil;Moon, Kyung-Il;Choi, Se-Ill
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.499-505
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    • 2015
  • Trend Impact Analysis(: TIA) is an advanced forecasting tool used in futures studies for identifying, understanding and analyzing the consequences of unprecedented events on future trends. An adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system is a kind of artificial neural network that integrates both neural networks and fuzzy logic principles, It is considered to be a universal estimator. In this paper, we propose an advanced mechanism to generate more justifiable estimates to the probability of occurrence of an unprecedented event as a function of time with different degrees of severity using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System(: ANFIS). The key idea of the paper is to enhance the generic process of reasoning with fuzzy logic and neural network by adding the additional step of attributes simulation, as unprecedented events do not occur all of a sudden but rather their occurrence is affected by change in the values of a set of attributes. An ANFIS approach is used to identify the occurrence and severity of an event, depending on the values of its trigger attributes. The trigger attributes can be calculated by a stochastic dynamic model; then different scenarios are generated using Monte-Carlo simulation. To compare the proposed method, a simple simulation is provided concerning the impact of river basin drought on the annual flow of water into a lake.

An Analysis of IT Trends Using Tweet Data (트윗 데이터를 활용한 IT 트렌드 분석)

  • Yi, Jin Baek;Lee, Choong Kwon;Cha, Kyung Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.143-159
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    • 2015
  • Predicting IT trends has been a long and important subject for information systems research. IT trend prediction makes it possible to acknowledge emerging eras of innovation and allocate budgets to prepare against rapidly changing technological trends. Towards the end of each year, various domestic and global organizations predict and announce IT trends for the following year. For example, Gartner Predicts 10 top IT trend during the next year, and these predictions affect IT and industry leaders and organization's basic assumptions about technology and the future of IT, but the accuracy of these reports are difficult to verify. Social media data can be useful tool to verify the accuracy. As social media services have gained in popularity, it is used in a variety of ways, from posting about personal daily life to keeping up to date with news and trends. In the recent years, rates of social media activity in Korea have reached unprecedented levels. Hundreds of millions of users now participate in online social networks and communicate with colleague and friends their opinions and thoughts. In particular, Twitter is currently the major micro blog service, it has an important function named 'tweets' which is to report their current thoughts and actions, comments on news and engage in discussions. For an analysis on IT trends, we chose Tweet data because not only it produces massive unstructured textual data in real time but also it serves as an influential channel for opinion leading on technology. Previous studies found that the tweet data provides useful information and detects the trend of society effectively, these studies also identifies that Twitter can track the issue faster than the other media, newspapers. Therefore, this study investigates how frequently the predicted IT trends for the following year announced by public organizations are mentioned on social network services like Twitter. IT trend predictions for 2013, announced near the end of 2012 from two domestic organizations, the National IT Industry Promotion Agency (NIPA) and the National Information Society Agency (NIA), were used as a basis for this research. The present study analyzes the Twitter data generated from Seoul (Korea) compared with the predictions of the two organizations to analyze the differences. Thus, Twitter data analysis requires various natural language processing techniques, including the removal of stop words, and noun extraction for processing various unrefined forms of unstructured data. To overcome these challenges, we used SAS IRS (Information Retrieval Studio) developed by SAS to capture the trend in real-time processing big stream datasets of Twitter. The system offers a framework for crawling, normalizing, analyzing, indexing and searching tweet data. As a result, we have crawled the entire Twitter sphere in Seoul area and obtained 21,589 tweets in 2013 to review how frequently the IT trend topics announced by the two organizations were mentioned by the people in Seoul. The results shows that most IT trend predicted by NIPA and NIA were all frequently mentioned in Twitter except some topics such as 'new types of security threat', 'green IT', 'next generation semiconductor' since these topics non generalized compound words so they can be mentioned in Twitter with other words. To answer whether the IT trend tweets from Korea is related to the following year's IT trends in real world, we compared Twitter's trending topics with those in Nara Market, Korea's online e-Procurement system which is a nationwide web-based procurement system, dealing with whole procurement process of all public organizations in Korea. The correlation analysis show that Tweet frequencies on IT trending topics predicted by NIPA and NIA are significantly correlated with frequencies on IT topics mentioned in project announcements by Nara market in 2012 and 2013. The main contribution of our research can be found in the following aspects: i) the IT topic predictions announced by NIPA and NIA can provide an effective guideline to IT professionals and researchers in Korea who are looking for verified IT topic trends in the following topic, ii) researchers can use Twitter to get some useful ideas to detect and predict dynamic trends of technological and social issues.

A Study on the Establishment of Corporate and Product Image Alignment (기업 이미지에 정합적(整合的)인 제품 이미지 구축 방법)

  • Kim, Hyun
    • Archives of design research
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.77-85
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    • 2001
  • In order to sustain competitive advantage through strategic product differentiation in global market, this research aims to establishment of strategic design conditions for domestic manufacturing firms through the means of product image alignment and positioning, using visual character of product as the foundation for establishing corporate image. Case studies on how globally successful multinational companies manage design strategy and corporate culture uniformly for coherent product image management are reviewed. To establish product image alignment methodology for manufacturing firms, the criteria for product image positioning and aligned product image development process are developed in three stages. First, in image positioning stage, it is important to set the direction for corporate image and design strategy by identifying consumer needs through market trends analysis and forecasting as well as comparative positioning of the analysis results of the firms's own corporate image and that of the competitor's. Second, in awareness building stage, before building the product image alignment, firm-wide shared awareness of differentiated corporate and product image, establishment of designer's role as the consolidated manager of product image, sharing form language, and building the infrastructure for defining form information should be preceded. Third, in managing the aligned product image stage, the condition for setting up image information management guideline, management of decision making process for arriving at logical decisions on product form, development of guideline for increasing efficiency and its evaluation system, and co-development of related design should be induced. Further research on the product image alignment with corporate image should be conducted through various empirical studies on image and form, building an information system of related design language, and continuous assessment and management of applied solutions.

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Analysis of the Design Style of the Fastback in Automobile Exterior Design (자동차 외관 디자인의 패스트백 디자인 스타일 분석)

  • Long, Jiang;Kim, Myong-Soo
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.109-115
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    • 2020
  • With the continuous development of automobile design industry, fastback design style has become the main popular trend of automobile appearance design, and it has an important impact on the future automobile appearance design. This study summarizes the basic rules and characteristics of the design style base don combing, analyzing and verifying the data of the fastback design style. It provides the necessary basic research for the better application of the fastback design style in the future automobile design. Firstly, through the literature research method to sort out and analyze the de finition, origin and history of fastback design style. Secondly, through the comparative study, the author compares and analyzes the characteristics, advantages and disadvantages of the fastback design style and the step back design style. Thirdly, through case analysis, it studies the classification and characteristics of fastback design style. Finally, this paper summarizes the influence of the fastback design style on the future automobile appearance design, and the specific design methods. Forecasts the development trend of fastback design style in the field of automobile exterior design in the future. Through this research, we sorted out the related historical development of fastback design and the characteristics and advantages of fastback design style (from the perspective of functionality, economy and aesthetics).The fastback design style has formed a more systematic research theory, which provides basic research materials for future fastback design research. In the next stage, this study will be further subdivided, focusing on the different design features of different automobile manufacturers which subdivide the fastback design style into different design features according to their own needs.

A Study on the Prediction of Yard Tractors Required by Vessels Arriving at Container Terminal (컨테이너터미널 입항 선박별 야드 트랙터 소요량 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Hyun-Jun;Shin, Jae-Young
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2021
  • Currently, the shipping and port industries are implementing strategies to improve port processing capabilities through the expansion and efficient operation of port logistics resources to survive fierce competition with rapidly changing trends. The calculation of the port's processing capacity is determined by the loading and unloading equipment installed at the dock, and the port's processing capacity can be improved through various methods, such as additional deployment of logistics resources or efficient operation of resources in use. However, it is difficult to expect an improvement effect in a short period of time because the additional deployment of logistics resources is clearly limited in time is clear. Therefore, it is a feasible way to find an efficient operation method for resources being used to improve processing capacity. Domestic ports are also actively promoting informatization and digitalization with the development of the 4th industrial revolution technology. However, the calculation of the number of Y/T (Yard Tractor) assignments in the current unloading process depends on expert experience, and related previous studies also focus on the allocations of Y/T or Calculation of the total number of Y/T required. Therefore, this study analyzed the factors affecting the number of Y/T allocations using the loading and unloading information of incoming ships, and based on this, cluster analysis, regression analysis, and deep neural network(DNN) model were used.

6th Industry Management Body Develop Managerial and Technical Level Metrics - by Applying AHP Analysis - (6차산업화 경영체 경영.기술수준 평가지표 개발 -AHP 분석을 적용하여-)

  • Seo, Yoon Jeong;Park, Jeong Woon;Han, Sang Yeon;Hwang, Dae Yong;Yang, Jung Hyun
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.8 no.4
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    • pp.177-191
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    • 2013
  • 6th Industry reduced agricultural income and rural areas, the economic downturn is going to be activated is attracting attention as an alternative. 6th industry means that the integrated or linked, the manufacture and processing of secondary industry based on primary industry, the distribution and service of tertiary industry. Park Geun-hye government to realize the creative economy in agriculture as an alternative to specifically evaluate the 6th industries and suggests various policy alternatives. In addition, to support the development of models and analysis of best practices, including sleep studies are in progress. However, the 6th Industry management body for performing management level, technical level, the leader in comprehensive evaluation of competencies and indicators on the development of an evaluation study is insufficient. In this regard, the present study performed 6th industry management body for the management level, technical level, the leader competency evaluation indicators to develop a comprehensive evaluation by utilizing AHP method was developed indicators. The results achieved in Korea As different countries and the FTA as cheap agricultural imports increased 6th industry revenues associated with the management body is very likely to be worse. The endless competition to survive in the most important of the strategy for each individual project management body to operate on their own, rather than to strengthen internal capacity by strengthening linkages with other industries, products, and services that promote the sale will be. This also is that you need to improve revenue management body. Thus, all 6th industry management body at the location of their efforts to gain the trust of consumers will require, moreover, for each management body to build cooperation between the various measures will be sought. In addition to the smart era rapidly changing needs of customers, depending on the life cycle of products and services are getting faster and the new consumer is getting more and more tend to find new products. Thus, customers and management body 6th industry changes quickly and accurately predict market trends, and also to market new products and services that further efforts would be needed.

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Utilization of Smart Farms in Open-field Agriculture Based on Digital Twin (디지털 트윈 기반 노지스마트팜 활용방안)

  • Kim, Sukgu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2023.04a
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    • pp.7-7
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    • 2023
  • Currently, the main technologies of various fourth industries are big data, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, mixed reality (MR), and drones. In particular, "digital twin," which has recently become a global technological trend, is a concept of a virtual model that is expressed equally in physical objects and computers. By creating and simulating a Digital twin of software-virtualized assets instead of real physical assets, accurate information about the characteristics of real farming (current state, agricultural productivity, agricultural work scenarios, etc.) can be obtained. This study aims to streamline agricultural work through automatic water management, remote growth forecasting, drone control, and pest forecasting through the operation of an integrated control system by constructing digital twin data on the main production area of the nojinot industry and designing and building a smart farm complex. In addition, it aims to distribute digital environmental control agriculture in Korea that can reduce labor and improve crop productivity by minimizing environmental load through the use of appropriate amounts of fertilizers and pesticides through big data analysis. These open-field agricultural technologies can reduce labor through digital farming and cultivation management, optimize water use and prevent soil pollution in preparation for climate change, and quantitative growth management of open-field crops by securing digital data for the national cultivation environment. It is also a way to directly implement carbon-neutral RED++ activities by improving agricultural productivity. The analysis and prediction of growth status through the acquisition of the acquired high-precision and high-definition image-based crop growth data are very effective in digital farming work management. The Southern Crop Department of the National Institute of Food Science conducted research and development on various types of open-field agricultural smart farms such as underground point and underground drainage. In particular, from this year, commercialization is underway in earnest through the establishment of smart farm facilities and technology distribution for agricultural technology complexes across the country. In this study, we would like to describe the case of establishing the agricultural field that combines digital twin technology and open-field agricultural smart farm technology and future utilization plans.

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