• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통행 시간 예측

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An Analysis on Evacuation Scenario at Metro-stations using Pedestrian Movement-based Simulation Model (보행류 기반 도시철도역사 평가 시뮬레이터를 활용한 대피 시나리오 분석)

  • You, So-young;Jung, Rea-hyuck;Chung, Jin-hyuck
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.15 no.2
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    • pp.36-49
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    • 2016
  • A subway system is one of the major transportation modes at a metropolitan area. When it meets the other lines, the metro station, so-called transferring station, is usually threatened by severe pedestrian congestion and safety issue of transit users including the transportation vulnerable. Although transportation planners forecast travel demand at the beginning, it is not easy to predict pedestrian flows precisely for a long term if land use plans have dramatically changed. Due to expensive costs, structural extension of metro stations is limited. Therefore, it requires efficient and technical improvements as meeting the demand of pedestrian and physical characteristics. In this study, the core mechanism of pedestrian movement-based simulation model was introduced and evacuation scenarios were analyzed with the developed model. As a result, the multiple optimal routes for unexpected events at the solid space of the multiple stories are easily searched through the simulator and in the case of Sadang Station, travel time can be reduced by 60% when the evacuation information and intuitive design are provided.

Estimation of Freeway Traffic Accident Rate using Traffic Volume and Trip Length (교통량과 통행길이를 고려한 고속도로 교통사고 예측 연구)

  • Baek, Seung-Geol;Jang, Hyeon-Ho;Gang, Jeong-Gyu
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.95-106
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    • 2005
  • Road accidents are considered as the result of a complex interplay between road, vehicle, environments, and human factors. Little study, however, has been carried out on the attributes of human factor compared to the road geometric conditions and traffic conditions. The previous researches focused on mainly both traffic and geometric conditions on specific location. Therefore, it's hard to explain phenomenon of the high traffic accident rates where road and traffic conditions are good. Because of these reasons, accident analysis has contributed on geometric improvement and has not contributed on traffic management such as selection of attention section, driver napping alert, etc. The freeway incident management is also associated with reliable prediction of incident occurrences on freeway sections. This paper presents a method for estimating the effect of trip length on freeway accident rate. A PAR (Potential Accident Ratio), the new concept of accident analysis, considering TLFDs (Trip Length Frequency Distributions) is suggested in this paper. This approach can help to strengthen freeway management and to reduce the likelihood of accidents.

Exploring the Temporal Relationship Between Traffic Information Web/Mobile Application Access and Actual Traffic Volume on Expressways (웹/모바일-어플리케이션 접속 지표와 TCS 교통량의 상관관계 연구)

  • RYU, Ingon;LEE, Jaeyoung;CHOI, Keechoo;KIM, Junghwa;AHN, Soonwook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2016
  • In the recent years, the internet has become accessible without limitation of time and location to anyone with smartphones. It resulted in more convenient travel information access both on the pre-trip and en-route phase. The main objective of this study is to conduct a stationary test for traffic information web/mobile application access indexes from TCS (Toll Collection System); and analyzing the relationship between the web/mobile application access indexes and actual traffic volume on expressways, in order to analyze searching behavior of expressway related travel information. The key findings of this study are as follows: first, the results of ADF-test and PP-test confirm that the web/mobile application access indexes by time periods satisfy stationary conditions even without log or differential transformation. Second, the Pearson correlation test showed that there is a strong and positive correlation between the web/mobile application access indexes and expressway entry and exit traffic volume. In contrast, truck entry traffic volume from TCS has no significant correlation with the web/mobile application access indexes. Third, the time gap relationship between time-series variables (i.e., concurrent, leading and lagging) was analyzed by cross-correlation tests. The results indicated that the mobile application access leads web access, and the number of mobile application execution is concurrent with all web access indexes. Lastly, there was no web/mobile application access indexes leading expressway entry traffic volumes on expressways, and the highest correlation was observed between webpage view/visitor/new visitor/repeat visitor/application execution counts and expressway entry volume with a lag of one hour. It is expected that specific individual travel behavior can be predicted such as route conversion time and ratio if the data are subdivided by time periods and areas and utilizing traffic information users' location.

A Study on the Construction Demand for Network of Metro Railroad in Busan-Ulsan-Gyeongnam Area - In the place of National Road No.7 - (부울경 광역도시철도망 구축 필요성에 관한 연구 - 국도 7호선 중심으로 -)

  • Choi, Yang Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.6D
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    • pp.771-778
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    • 2011
  • Preliminary feasibility study on Busan metro line #1 in Yangsan line (Nopo-Bukjeong) depending on active volume of mass transportation between Yangsan city and Busan city was conducted. As the study concluded that it's valid, the necessity to establish the metro railroad network connecting to Busan, Ulsan and Gyeongnam Province is demanded to improve the transportation issues in Ungsang area vulnerable to metro service and to drive the balanced development between metropolitan cities. In addition, the volume of transportation depending on methods in target areas and road traffic assignment are surveyed to put a stress on the necessity to establish the metro railroad network. As the demand of transportation for alternative lines is predicted, the budget and benefits for construction for each alternative line set for the rough economic analysis depending on traffic volume for each method and traffic assignment results. The total project budget necessary for construction of proposal line #1 set as effective one among target three lines in this project is calculated in 794.32 billion won. Construction accounts for the most expensive in expenses for project and contingency allowances, purchases for vehicles and collateral expense are followed in orders. However, compensation for lands is not counted. In particular, according to economic analysis in proposal #1, ratio of benefit/cost (B/C) is 0.584, net present value (NPV) is -217.47 billion won, the internal rate of return (IRR) is analyzed in 0.604 %. At the current stage, it is not economically feasible, but the B/C is 0.737 in long-term upon construction of Yangsan line between Wolpheong and Yongdang which is proposal line #3. Therefore, when Busan metro basic plan is reorganized to aim the benefit of residents in Ungsang area vulnerable to the metro service, we think it must be necessary to establish the metro railroad network connecting to Busan-Yangsan-Ulsan which is proposal line #2 by extending the existing Sinjeong line and including this task line in high-ranked plan related to metro railroad.

A Study for the Express Railway of Seoul Metropolitan Area(Kangnam$\sim$Ilsan) (수도권(강남$\sim$일산) 급행철도 도입에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kwang-Bok
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2009.05a
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    • pp.1269-1278
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    • 2009
  • The Seoul metropolitan area is generated the transportation problems of traffic congestion, delay of travel time, etc due to the increase of traffic demand at Seongnam area, Koyang/Paju area, Incheon/Bucheon area, etc, because that have not provided the urban surrounding railway network and live to be concentrated about 49% of the population of Korea. The Koyang/Paju route axis is required the urban surrounding railway network because the share percentage of public transportation is 51%, the automobiles is 48.8% and the subway is 27.3% and the housing development plan for 530,000 persons have provided. According to the result of the study for the introduction of the express railway between Kangnam to Ilsan of 37.8Km, in case of operation of 150Kmm at express railway, the scheduled speed between Kangnam to Ilsan is 103Km/h, the running time is about 23 minutes. The demand of traffic of this project was forecasted about 237,000persons by traffic analysis. This project which was analysed B/C of 1.08 by the result of the feasibility study have a economic feasibility.

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Analysis of the Urban Interactions of Seoul Metropolitan Region using Commuting Data and GIS (통근자료와 GIS를 이용한 서울대도시권 도시 간 상호작용 분석)

  • Kim, Jyso;Chang, Hoon;Lim, Up
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.2D
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2009
  • To predict the urban growth trend and to prevent the metropolitan problems, it is important to track the spatio-temporal changes in the urban spatial structure. Commuting is inevitable and regular activities emerging in the metropolitan region. Therefore, it can be a useful to examine the interregional interaction and the urban spatial change. The purpose of this study is to investigate the urban interaction between Seoul and cities around Seoul Metropolitan Region, and GIS functions helped analysis and visualized results. An analysis of current commuting data using the Gravity Model suggests that the interaction between Seoul and its peripheral cities has been intensified from 1990 to 2000 and that the urban interaction was closely related to the distance. And the southward distribution of the cities having a strong interaction with Seoul accounts for the imbalance in growing of Seoul Metropolitan Region.

Development of a Modified Vine Building Shortest Path Algorithm for ATIS (ATIS를 위한 수정형 덩굴망 최단경로 탐색 알고리즘의 개발)

  • 김익기
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.157-167
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    • 1998
  • 건설된 도로를 효율적으로 이용하고, 통행자의 편리성을 향상시키기 위해 첨단 여행자 정보체계(ATIS)를 활용할 수 있다. ATIS 체계하에서 노선정보를 통행자에게 제공하기 위해서는 교차로에서의 회전으로 인한 지체를 정확하게 반영할 수 있는 효율적인 최단경로 알고리즘이 필요하다. 하지만 기존의 최단경로탐색 알고리즘은 좌회전 금지, U-turn, P-turn 등 교차로에서의 회전으로 인한 지체를 정확히 반영 못한다는 단점을 갖고 있다. 그러므로 본 논문에서는 이러한 단점을 극복하기 위해 수정형 덩굴망 알고리즘을 재발하였다. 수정형 덩굴망 알고리즘은 노드표지(node labelling) 방법에 있어서는 기존의 덩굴망 알고리즘의 노드표지 방법과 개념적으로 동일하여 이용상의 편리성을 갖도록 하였으며, 최단경로 탐색기능에 있어서는 링크탐색알고리즘(혹은 링크표지기법)이 갖고 있는 장잠을 다 반영할 수 있는 기법으로 개발하였다. 수정형 덩굴망 알고리즘은 노드표지에 있어 특정 노드로 유입하는 방향에 따라 노드표지를 별도로 기록하였다. 따라서 교차로에서의 좌회전, 우회전 및 직진은 물론 U-turn의 경우에도 추가적인 절차 없이 현실적인 최단 경로를 탐색할 수 있도록 하였다. 또한 본 논문은 최단경로의 역추적 방법을 개선하여 좌회전 금지, U-turn, P-turn 및 기타 회전에 의한 지체등을 각 교차로마다 정확히 반영함으로써 비합리적인 최단경로가 추적되는 것을 근본적으로 차단하도록 하였다. 따라서 본 연구에서 개발한 수정형 덩굴망 최단경로탐색 알고리즘은 교차로에서의 회전지체 및 회전금지를 현실적으로 잘 반영함으로써 정확한 노선정보를 요구하는 ATIS체계를 분석하는데 유용하게 활용될 수 있는 기법이다.장자료를 통해 구하기란 현실적으로 불가능하므로, 본 연구에서는 이러한 제약점을 극복할 수 있는 근사적인 지체시간을 계산하는 방법을 제시한 점에서 의미를 갖을 수 있다.수들은 직업의 선택이나 소득을 예측하기 위한 요소들로 포함될 수 없었다. 따라서 후속연구에서는 이를 보완해야 할 것이며, 최근 들어 우리 나라에서도 재택근무에 대한 관심이 대두되고 있으나 아직 개념정의나 그 중요성과 가치, 그리고 실태 파악과 같은 연구가 활발히 이루어지지 못하고 있으므로 이에 대한 심층적인 연구가 행해져야 할 것이다.d similar flower proceeding dates in all branches. but "Daepung" showed similar flower proceeding dates in all branches.est in HB. Mean period of wetting duration was in the order of DS>HB>MB, while the dew point depression was greatest in DS.ANCOVA, Pearson correlation을 이용하여 분석하였으며, 그 결과는 다음과 같다. 캠프 프로그램은 소아 당뇨병 환자의 자기 효능을 증진시키고 환자 역할 행위 이행을 높여주는데 효과적 이었다. 소아 당뇨병 환자의 자기 효능은 환자 역할 행위 이행과 순 상관 관계가 있어, 자기 효능이 증진될수록 환자 역할 행위 이행 정도가 높아졌다. 무조건 사주지 않는다(8.0%), 무조건 사준다(3.1%)로 식품광고에 나오는 식품 요구시 부모의 70.3%가 거절하는 것으로 나타났다. 거절 이유는 건강에 나쁘다는 것이 가장 큰 이유였으며 강남과 강북 어린이간에 유의적인 차이가 있었다

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A study on Air and High Speed Rail modal According to the Introduction of Low Cost Carrier Air Service (저비용항공 진입에 따른 항공과 고속철도수단 선택에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Sam-Jin;Lim, Kang-Won;Lee, Young-Ihn;Kim, Kyung-Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.51-61
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    • 2008
  • Most of Korea's 15 local airports, with the exception Jeju, Gimpo and Gimhae airports, have been several billion Won in the red each year. It has been reported that one of the causes of the poor financial performance is inaccurate air traffic demand predictions. Under the situation, the entry of low-cost carrier air service using turbo-prop airplanes into the domestic airlines market gets a wide range of support, which is expected to promote the convenience of consumers and help to activate local airports. In this study, the authors (1) suggest a high-speed transport demand model among existing airlines, Korea Train Express (KTX) and low-cost carrier air service; (2) try to make low-cost air carrier demand predictions for a route between Seoul and Daegu through a stated-preference survey; and (3), examine possible effectiveness of selected policy measures by establishing an estimation model. First, fare has a strong influence for mode choice between high-speed transport modes when considering the entry of low-cost carrier air service between Seoul and Daegu. Even low-cost carrier air service fare is set at 38,000 won, which is considerably low compared with that of KTX, in the regions where the total travel time is the same for both low-cost carrier air service and KTX, the probability of selecting low-cost carrier air service is 0.1, which shows little possibility of modal change between high speed transportation means. It is suggested that the fare of low-cost air service between Seoul and Daegu should be within the range of from of 38,000 to 44,000 Won; if it is higher, the demand is likely to be lower than expected.

Analysis Method of Module Type Crash Cushion (모듈형태의 충격흡수장치 해석방법)

  • Ko, Man-Gi;Kim, Kee-Dong;Sung, Jung-Gon;Yun, Duk-Geun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.97-104
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    • 2008
  • Many atypical structures on the roadside are exposed to traffics unshielded posing great danger. One way to shield an atypical structure to secure the occupant safety is to stack energy absorbing material modules in front of the structure. This paper presents the analysis method of module type crash cushion made of EPS blocks using simple energy balance of the car and crash cushion and numerical examples for 0.9ton-500km/h, 0.9ton-60km/h and 0.9ton-70km/h impact are presented. This method gives simple estimation of maximum acceleration, time of crash, whether or not the vehicle stops completely before whole cushion is being crushed. However, since the acceleration and velocity data from the analysis is so crudely spaced that calculation of safety indices such is RA and OIV is not possible. Problem is overcome by using data interpolation. The spline and linear interpolation is introduce and safety analysis is made and the results are compared.

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Analysis Period of Input Data for Improving the Prediction Accuracy of Express-Bus Travel Times (고속버스 통행시간 예측의 정확도 제고를 위한 입력자료 분석기간 선정 연구)

  • Nam, Seung-Tae;Yun, Ilsoo;Lee, Choul-Ki;Oh, Young-Tae;Choi, Yun-Taik;Kwon, Kenan
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : The travel times of expressway buses have been estimated using the travel time data between entrance tollgates and exit tollgates, which are produced by the Toll Collections System (TCS). However, the travel time data from TCS has a few critical problems. For example, the travel time data include the travel times of trucks as well as those of buses. Therefore, the travel time estimation of expressway buses using TCS data may be implicitly and explicitly incorrect. The goal of this study is to improve the accuracy of the expressway bus travel time estimation using DSRC-based travel time by identifying the appropriate analysis period of input data. METHODS : All expressway buses are equipped with the Hi-Pass transponders so that the travel times of only expressway buses can be extracted now using DSRC. Thus, this study analyzed the operational characteristics as well as travel time patterns of the expressway buses operating between Seoul and Dajeon. And then, this study determined the most appropriate analysis period of input data for the expressway bus travel time estimation model in order to improve the accuracy of the model. RESULTS : As a result of feasibility analysis according to the analysis period, overall MAPE values were found to be similar. However, the MAPE values of the cases using similar volume patterns outperformed other cases. CONCLUSIONS : The best input period was that of the case which uses the travel time pattern of the days whose total expressway traffic volumes are similar to that of one day before the day during which the travel times of expressway buses must be estimated.