• Title/Summary/Keyword: 통행속도 예측

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Development of the Shortest Route Search Algorithm Using Fuzzy Theory (퍼지 추론을 이용한 최단 경로 탐색 알고리즘의 개발)

  • Jung, Yung-Keun;Park, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.8 s.86
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    • pp.171-179
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents the algorithm using fuzzy inference that preestimates each link speed changed by different kinds of road situations. The elements we are considered are time zone, rainfall probability information and lane control information. This paper is consists of three parts. First of all we set up the fuzzy variables, and preestimate link speed changed by various road situations. For this process, we build the membership functions for each fuzzy variable and establish the fuzzy inference relations to find how fuzzy variables influence on link speed. Second, using backtracking method, we search the shortest route influenced by link speed changed by fuzzy inference. Third, we apply this algorithm to hypothetical network and find the shortest path. As a result, it is shown that this algorithm choose appropriate roundabout path according to the changing road situations.

Emprical Tests of Braess Paradox (The Case of Namsan 2nd Tunnel Shutdown) (브라이스역설에 대한 실증적 검증 (남산2호터널 폐쇄사례를 중심으로))

  • 엄진기;황기연;김익기
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.61-70
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    • 1999
  • The Purpose of this study is to test whether Braess Paradox (BP) can be revealed in a real world network. Fer the study, Namsan 2nd tunnel case is chosen, which was shut down for 3 years for repair works. The revelation of BP is determined by analyzing network-wise traffic impacts followed by the tunnel closure. The analysis is conducted using a network simulation model called SECOMM developed for the congestion management of the Seoul metropolitan area. Also, the existence of BP is further identified by a before-after traffic survey result of the major arterials nearby the Namsan 2nd tunnel. The model estimation expected that the closure of Namsan 2nd tunnel improve the network-wise average traffic speed from 21.95km/h to 22.21km/h when the travel demand in the study area and congestion Pricing scheme on Namsan 1st & 3rd tunnels remain unchanged. In addition, the real world monitoring results of the corridors surrounding Namsan 2nd tunnel show that the average speed increases from 29.53km/h to 30.37km/h after the closure. These findings clearly identify the BP Phenomenon is revealed in this case.

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Development of Classified Congestion Functions (도로유형별 지체함수 정립에 관한 연구)

  • 강호익;박창호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.117-131
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    • 1998
  • 지체함수는 교통량과 속도의 관계를 단조 증가함수로 단순화하여 교통수요예측의 교통배정모형에 사용되게 된다. 이 지체함수를 구하는 방법은 두가지로 구분할 수 있는데, 첫째는 교통배정을 통해 구해지는 추정 링크통행량과 실측 교통량을 비교해 가면서 정산하는 방법이고 둘째는 교통량-속도 관계로부터 직접 구하는 방법이다. 첫째 방법은 구해진 O/D 통행량표의 부정확성과 모형에 내재하는 오류가 이 지체함수에 포함될 가능성이 매우 높은 단점을 가지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 교통량-속도 관계로부터 직접 도로유형별 지체함수를 구하여 교통배정에 적용하는 새로운 방법을 정입하였다. 교통망 전체에 대하여 단일 지체함수를 적용하는 기존의 방법은, 교통량 변화에 따른 통행시 간의 변화가 보다 둔감한 고급도로에 변화는 고급도로일수록 둔감하게 나타나며, 교통배정에 도로유형별 지체함수를 적용할 경우 단일 지체함수 적용시에 비하여 고급도로에 더 많은 교통량이 배정되게 된다. 본 연구의 결과, 교통망상에서 보다 현실적인 도로유형별 분담을 이룰 수 있는 방안이 정립됨으로써, 지금까지 교통배정에 있어 상대적으로 과소평가되어 왔던 고속도? 등 고급도로의 실제 타당성을 반영할 수 있게 되어 도로의 기능적 배차구조가 확립된 효율적인 교통망을 구성할 수 있는 계기를 마련한 것으로 판단된다.

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Multi-step Ahead Link Travel Time Prediction using Data Fusion (데이터융합기술을 활용한 다주기 통행시간예측에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Young-Ihn;Kim, Sung-Hyun;Yoon, Ji-Hyeon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.4 s.82
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    • pp.71-79
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    • 2005
  • Existing arterial link travel time estimation methods relying on either aggregate point-based or individual section-based traffic data have their inherent limitations. This paper demonstrates the utility of data fusion for improving arterial link travel time estimation. If the data describe traffic conditions, an operator wants to know whether the situations are going better or worse. In addition, some traffic information providing strategies require predictions of what would be the values of traffic variables during the next time period. In such situations, it is necessary to use a prediction algorithm in order to extract the average trends in traffic data or make short-term predictions of the control variables. In this research. a multi-step ahead prediction algorithm using Data fusion was developed to predict a link travel time. The algorithm performance were tested in terms of performance measures such as MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MARE(mean absolute relative error), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), EC(equality coefficient). The performance of the proposed algorithm was superior to the current one-step ahead prediction algorithm.

Traffic Noise Prediction Model (도로교통 소음예측을 위한 모델의 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Han-In;Yu, Wann;Kim, Yang-Kyun;Cha, Il-Whan
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.4 no.3
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    • pp.42-46
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    • 1985
  • 자동차에 의해 발생되는 도로교통소음을 예측할 수 있는 기본모델을 개발하고저 한다. 이를 위 해 기존도로중에서 통행방법 등을 조사하고저 통행량, 속도등의 통행방법 및 측정거리가 조사되었고, 소 음평가량으로서 등가소음수준 Leq와 소음수준 중앙치 L\sub 50\도 측정되었다. 본 연구에서는 이와 같 은 자료를 토대로 측정된 자료를 토대로 선형회귀분석 방법을 사용한다. 이렇게 개발된 모델을 동일한 조건에서 실측된 자료에 적용한 결과 정확도가 상당히 높았다. 다른 지역에서 이미 개발된 모델로서는 수학적인 모델과 통계적인 모델들이 있다. 이미 개발된 모델들과는 실측치와 예측치와의 오차의 제곱을 합계한 값으로서 비교했다.

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Development of a Path-Based Trip Assignment Model under Toll Imposition (통행료체계에서의 경로기반 통행배정모형 개발)

  • 권용석;박창호
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 2000
  • 이용자의 경로선택 형태를 모사하는 통행배정모형 결과의 정확도는 교통계획에 상당한 영향을 미친다. 이용자의 경로선택 결정과정에서 가장 중요한 판단기준은 통행시간과 통행요금이다. 그런데 통행요금은 이용자의 경로 거리에 따라 다양한 방식으로 부과되므로, 링크를 분석단위로 하는 기존의 통행배정모형은 현실적인 통행요금 반영이 힘들었고 또한 수요예측 결과를 이용한 다양한 분석에서 제약을 받아 왔다. 본 연구는 이러한 배경에서 경로교통량을 도출할 수 있는 경로기반 통행배정모형을 구축하였고, 또한 경로거리에 따라 결정되는 현실적인 통행요금을 반영할 수 있는 알고리즘을 개발하였다. 경로기반 배정모형에서는 GP(Gradient Projection) 알고리즘을 이용하였고, 계산상의 효율성 제고를 위해 K-최단경로 알고리즘 중 MPS(Minimal Path Search) 알고리즘을 이용하였다. 개발된 배정모형은 현실적인 통행요금을 반영할 수 있으므로 통행배정 결과의 정밀도를 향상시켰을 뿐만 아니라 기존 배정모형에 비해 최적해로의 수렴속도도 개선되는 것으로 나타났다. 본 논문의 배정모형은 경로교통량이 도출되고 통행요금을 반영할 수 있으므로, 통행요금과 통행거리 관계에 따른 목적함수의 규명과 그에 따른 효과척도를 계량화할 수 있다. 따라서 본 모형은 통행배정에서 실재상황을 보다 현실여건에 맞도록 규명할 수 있고, 기존의 제한적인 효과분석의 문제점을 해결할 수 있으므로 그 활용범위가 넓다.

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Estimation of Link Travel Speed Using Single Loop Detector Measurements for Signalized Arterials (단일루프검지기를 이용한 간선도로 실시간 통행속도 추정 방법론)

  • 김영찬;최기주;김도경;오기도
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.53-71
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    • 1997
  • This paper presents a methodology for estimating average travel speed using volume and occupancy data from single magnetic loop detectors for signalized arterials. Three methods were developed and evaluated using field data: VPLUSKO method, fuzzy control method, and neural network method. While the VPLUSKO method is easy to apply, it results poor performances compared to other methods. The neural network method showed the best performances among the candidate methods. This method revealed the weakness in transferability, however. From limited cases of field test, it was concluded that the method of the fuzzy control application showed reasonable performance of estimation. It was also demonstrated that the fuzzy control method has the capability of transferability.

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Evaluation of the Estimate Algorithms for Link Travel Time from GPS Probe Data (GPS수신정보에 의한 구간통행속도 예측 알고리즘 비교평가)

  • Kim, Dong-Hyo;Han, Won-Sub;Lee, Ho-Won;Hyun, Cheol-Seung;Joo, Doo-Hwan;Lee, Choul-Ki
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.7 no.5
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    • pp.13-25
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    • 2008
  • This study analyzed errors of data received from GPS which showed different reception characteristics based on chipset at poor reception area. The digital map made from National Police Agency shows 4% errors of length on the average. The comparison of three different algorithms - Average Spot Speed, Cumulative Travel Length from GPS with Actual Travel Time, Travel Length from Digital Map with Actual Travel Time have been conducted to find significant difference estimating travel time from GPS Data. The algorithm to estimate travel time from travel length and travel time showed the most reliable results from the others.

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A Dynamic Shortest Path Finding Model using Hierarchical Road Networks (도로 위계 구조를 고려한 동적 최적경로 탐색 기법개발)

  • Kim, Beom-Il;Lee, Seung-Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.23 no.6 s.84
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    • pp.91-102
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    • 2005
  • When it comes to the process of information storage, people are likely to organize individual information into the forms of groups rather than independent attributes, and put them together in their brains. Likewise, in case of finding the shortest path, this study suggests that a Hierarchical Road Network(HRN) model should be selected to browse the most desirable route, since the HRN model takes the process mentioned above into account. Moreover, most of drivers make a decision to select a route from origin to destination by road hierarchy. It says that the drivers feel difference between the link travel tine which was measured by driving and the theoretical link travel time. There is a different solution which has predicted the link travel time to solve this problem. By using this solution, the link travel time is predicted based on link conditions from time to time. The predicated link travel time is used to search the shortest path. Stochastic Process model uses the historical patterns of travel time conditions on links. The HRN model has compared favorably with the conventional shortest path finding model in tern of calculated speeds. Even more, the result of the shortest path using the HRN model has more similar to the survey results which was conducted to the taxi drivers. Taxi drivers have a strong knowledge of road conditions on the road networks and they are more likely to select a shortest path according to the real common sense.

On-Line Travel Time Estimation Methods using Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy System for Arterial Road (검지자료합성을 통한 도시간선도로 실시간 통행시간 추정모형)

  • 김영찬;김태용
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.19 no.6
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    • pp.171-182
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    • 2001
  • Travel Time is an important characteristic of traffic conditions in a road network. Currently, there are so many road users to get a unsatisfactory traffic information that is provided by existing collection systems such as, Detector, Probe car, CCTV and Anecdotal Report. This paper presents the results achieved with Data Fusion Model, Hybrid Neuro Fuzzy System for on - line estimation of travel times using RTMS(Remote Traffic Microwave Sensor) and Probe Data in the signalized arterial road. Data Fusion is the most important process to compose the various of data which can present real value for traffic situation and is also the one of the major process part in the TIC(Traffic Information Center) for analyzing and processing data. On-line travel time estimation methods(FALEM) on the basis of detector data has been evaluated by real value under KangNam Test Area.

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