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Bankruptcy Forecasting Model using AdaBoost: A Focus on Construction Companies (적응형 부스팅을 이용한 파산 예측 모형: 건설업을 중심으로)

  • Heo, Junyoung;Yang, Jin Yong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-48
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    • 2014
  • According to the 2013 construction market outlook report, the liquidation of construction companies is expected to continue due to the ongoing residential construction recession. Bankruptcies of construction companies have a greater social impact compared to other industries. However, due to the different nature of the capital structure and debt-to-equity ratio, it is more difficult to forecast construction companies' bankruptcies than that of companies in other industries. The construction industry operates on greater leverage, with high debt-to-equity ratios, and project cash flow focused on the second half. The economic cycle greatly influences construction companies. Therefore, downturns tend to rapidly increase the bankruptcy rates of construction companies. High leverage, coupled with increased bankruptcy rates, could lead to greater burdens on banks providing loans to construction companies. Nevertheless, the bankruptcy prediction model concentrated mainly on financial institutions, with rare construction-specific studies. The bankruptcy prediction model based on corporate finance data has been studied for some time in various ways. However, the model is intended for all companies in general, and it may not be appropriate for forecasting bankruptcies of construction companies, who typically have high liquidity risks. The construction industry is capital-intensive, operates on long timelines with large-scale investment projects, and has comparatively longer payback periods than in other industries. With its unique capital structure, it can be difficult to apply a model used to judge the financial risk of companies in general to those in the construction industry. Diverse studies of bankruptcy forecasting models based on a company's financial statements have been conducted for many years. The subjects of the model, however, were general firms, and the models may not be proper for accurately forecasting companies with disproportionately large liquidity risks, such as construction companies. The construction industry is capital-intensive, requiring significant investments in long-term projects, therefore to realize returns from the investment. The unique capital structure means that the same criteria used for other industries cannot be applied to effectively evaluate financial risk for construction firms. Altman Z-score was first published in 1968, and is commonly used as a bankruptcy forecasting model. It forecasts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt by using a simple formula, classifying the results into three categories, and evaluating the corporate status as dangerous, moderate, or safe. When a company falls into the "dangerous" category, it has a high likelihood of bankruptcy within two years, while those in the "safe" category have a low likelihood of bankruptcy. For companies in the "moderate" category, it is difficult to forecast the risk. Many of the construction firm cases in this study fell in the "moderate" category, which made it difficult to forecast their risk. Along with the development of machine learning using computers, recent studies of corporate bankruptcy forecasting have used this technology. Pattern recognition, a representative application area in machine learning, is applied to forecasting corporate bankruptcy, with patterns analyzed based on a company's financial information, and then judged as to whether the pattern belongs to the bankruptcy risk group or the safe group. The representative machine learning models previously used in bankruptcy forecasting are Artificial Neural Networks, Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost) and, the Support Vector Machine (SVM). There are also many hybrid studies combining these models. Existing studies using the traditional Z-Score technique or bankruptcy prediction using machine learning focus on companies in non-specific industries. Therefore, the industry-specific characteristics of companies are not considered. In this paper, we confirm that adaptive boosting (AdaBoost) is the most appropriate forecasting model for construction companies by based on company size. We classified construction companies into three groups - large, medium, and small based on the company's capital. We analyzed the predictive ability of AdaBoost for each group of companies. The experimental results showed that AdaBoost has more predictive ability than the other models, especially for the group of large companies with capital of more than 50 billion won.

The Recovery of Left Ventricular Function after Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting in Patients with Severe Ischemic Left Ventricular Dysfunction: Off-pump Versus On-pump (심한 허혈성 좌심실 기능부전 환자에서 관상동맥우회술시 체외순환 여부에 따른 좌심실 기능 회복력 비교)

  • Kim Jae Hyun;Kim Gun Gyk;Baek Man Jong;Oh Sam Sae;Kim Chong Whan;Na Chan-Young
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.38 no.2 s.247
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    • pp.116-122
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    • 2005
  • Background: Adverse effects of cardiopulmonary bypass can be avoided by 'Off-pump' coronary artery bypass (OPCAB) surgery. Recent studies have reported that OPCAB had the most beneficial impact on patients at highest risk by reducing bypass-related complications. The purpose of this study is to compare the outcome of OPCAB and conventional coronary artery bypass grafting (CCAB) in patients with poor left ventricular (LV) function. Material and Method: From March 1997 to February 2004, seventy five patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) of $35\%$ or less underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting at our institute. Of these patients, 33 patients underwent OPCAB and 42 underwent CCAB. Preoperative risk factors, operative and postoperative outcomes, including LV functional change, were compared and analysed. Result: Patients undergoing CCAB were more likely to have unstable angina, three vessel disease and acute myocardial infarction among the preoperative factors. OPCAB group had significantly lower mean operation time, less numbers of total distal anastomoses per patient and less numbers of distal anastomoses per patient in the circumflex territory than the CCAB group. There was no difference between the groups in regard to in-hospital mortality $(OPCAB\; 9.1\%\;(n=3)\;Vs.\;CCAB\;9.5\%\;(n=4)),$ intubation time, the length of stay in intensive care unit and in hospital postoperatively. Postoperative complication occurred more in CCAB group but did not show statistical difference. On follow-up echocardiography, OPCAB group showed $9.1\%$ improvement in mean LVEF, 4.3 mm decrease in mean left ventricular end-diastolic dimension (LVEDD) and 4.2 mm decrease in mean left ventricular end-systolic dimension (LVESD). CCAB group showed $11.0\%$ improvement in mean LVEF, 5.1 mm decrease in mean LVEDD and 5.5 mm decrease in mean LVESD. But there was no statistically significant difference between the two groups. Conclusion: This study showed that LV function improves postoperatively in patients with severe ischemic LV dysfunction, but failed to show any difference in the degree of improvement between OPCAB and CCAB. In terms of operative mortality rate and LV functional recovery, the results of OPCAB were as good as those of CCAB in patients with poor LV function. But, OPCAB procedure was advantageous in shortening of operative time and in decrease of complications. We recommend OPCAB as the first surgical option for patients with severe LV dysfunction.

A Study on Estimating Shear Strength of Continuum Rock Slope (연속체 암반비탈면의 강도정수 산정 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Min;Lee, Su-gon;Lee, Byok-Kyu;Woo, Jae-Gyung;Hur, Ik;Lee, Jun-Ki
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.5-19
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    • 2019
  • Considering the natural phenomenon in which steep slopes ($65^{\circ}{\sim}85^{\circ}$) consisting of rock mass remain stable for decades, slopes steeper than 1:0.5 (the standard of slope angle for blast rock) may be applied in geotechnical conditions which are similar to those above at the design and initial construction stages. In the process of analysing the stability of a good to fair continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope, a general method of estimating rock mass strength properties from design practice perspective was required. Practical and genealized engineering methods of determining the properties of a rock mass are important for a good continuum rock slope that can be designed as a steep slope. The Genealized Hoek-Brown (H-B) failure criterion and GSI (Geological Strength Index), which were revised and supplemented by Hoek et al. (2002), were assessed as rock mass characterization systems fully taking into account the effects of discontinuities, and were widely utilized as a method for calculating equivalent Mohr-Coulomb shear strength (balancing the areas) according to stress changes. The concept of calculating equivalent M-C shear strength according to the change of confining stress range was proposed, and on a slope, the equivalent shear strength changes sensitively with changes in the maximum confining stress (${{\sigma}^{\prime}}_{3max}$ or normal stress), making it difficult to use it in practical design. In this study, the method of estimating the strength properties (an iso-angle division method) that can be applied universally within the maximum confining stress range for a good to fair continuum rock mass slope is proposed by applying the H-B failure criterion. In order to assess the validity and applicability of the proposed method of estimating the shear strength (A), the rock slope, which is a study object, was selected as the type of rock (igneous, metamorphic, sedimentary) on the steep slope near the existing working design site. It is compared and analyzed with the equivalent M-C shear strength (balancing the areas) proposed by Hoek. The equivalent M-C shear strength of the balancing the areas method and iso-angle division method was estimated using the RocLab program (geotechnical properties calculation software based on the H-B failure criterion (2002)) by using the basic data of the laboratory rock triaxial compression test at the existing working design site and the face mapping of discontinuities on the rock slope of study area. The calculated equivalent M-C shear strength of the balancing the areas method was interlinked to show very large or small cohesion and internal friction angles (generally, greater than $45^{\circ}$). The equivalent M-C shear strength of the iso-angle division is in-between the equivalent M-C shear properties of the balancing the areas, and the internal friction angles show a range of $30^{\circ}$ to $42^{\circ}$. We compared and analyzed the shear strength (A) of the iso-angle division method at the study area with the shear strength (B) of the existing working design site with similar or the same grade RMR each other. The application of the proposed iso-angle division method was indirectly evaluated through the results of the stability analysis (limit equilibrium analysis and finite element analysis) applied with these the strength properties. The difference between A and B of the shear strength is about 10%. LEM results (in wet condition) showed that Fs (A) = 14.08~58.22 (average 32.9) and Fs (B) = 18.39~60.04 (average 32.2), which were similar in accordance with the same rock types. As a result of FEM, displacement (A) = 0.13~0.65 mm (average 0.27 mm) and displacement (B) = 0.14~1.07 mm (average 0.37 mm). Using the GSI and Hoek-Brown failure criterion, the significant result could be identified in the application evaluation. Therefore, the strength properties of rock mass estimated by the iso-angle division method could be applied with practical shear strength.

Hwaunsi(和韻詩) on the Poems of Tu Fu(杜甫) and Su Shi(蘇軾) Written by Simjae(深齋) Cho Geung-seop(曺兢燮) in the Turning Point of Modern Era (근대 전환기 심재 조긍섭의 두(杜)·소시(蘇詩) 화운시)

  • Kim, Bo-kyeong
    • (The)Study of the Eastern Classic
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    • no.56
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    • pp.35-73
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    • 2014
  • This paper examined the poem world of Simjae(深齋) Cho Geung-seop(曺兢燮: 1873-1933) in the turning point of the modern era, focused on his Hwaunsi (和韻詩: Poems written by using the rhymes of other poets' poems). In his poems, there are lots of Hwaunsi on the poems of Tu Fu(杜甫) and Su Shi(蘇軾), especially. This makes him regarded as a medieval poet, engaged in Chinese poem creation in the most traditional method in the turbulent period. Looking at the Hawunsi(和韻詩) alone, Simjae's creative life became the starting point of turnaround at around 40 years old. Before the age of 40, the poets in the Tang Dynasty and Song Dynasty and Ming Dynasty and Qing Dynasty and Korean figures like Lee Hwang(李滉), as well as Tu Fu and Su Shi were the subjects of his Hwanunsi. After the age of 40, some examples of writing poems using the rhymes of other poets' poems, especially Korean figures related to regions, are often found, reducing Hwaunsi on Tu Fu and Su Shi. Simjae called Tu Fu the integration of poets, talking about the integrity of poetic talent and his being highly proficient in mood and view. As reflecting such an awareness, the themes and moods and views are demonstrated diversely in Simjae's Hwaunsi. Although, he did not reveal his thinking about the poems of Su Shi, he seemed to love Su Shi's poems to some degree. The closeness to the original poems, the poems of Tu Fu are relatively higher than those of Su Shi. Roughly speaking, Simjae tried to find his own individuality, intending to follow Tu Fu, but, he seemed to attempt to reveal his intention using Su Shi's poems, rather than trying to imitate. To carefully examine, Simjae wrote Hwaunsi, but he did not just imitate, but revealed the aesthetics of comparison and difference. In many cases, he made new meanings by implanting his intentions in the poems, while sharing the opportunity of creation, rather than bringing the theme and mood and view as they are. The Hwaunsi on Su Shi's poems reveal the closeness to the original poems relatively less. This can be the trace of an effort to make his own theme and individuality, not being dominated by the Hwaun(和韻: using the rhymes of other poets' poems) entirely, as he used the creative method having many restrictions. However, it is noted that the Hwaunsi on Tu Fu's poems was not written much, after the age of 40. Is this the reason why he realized literary reality that he could not cope with anymore with only his effort within the Hwaunsi? For example, he wrote four poems by borrowing Su Shi's Okjungsi(獄中詩: poem written in jail) rhymes and also wrote Gujung Japje(拘中雜題), in 1919, while he was detained. In these poems, his complex contemplation and emotion, not restricted by any poet's rhymes, are revealed diversely. Simjae's Hwaunsi testifies the reality, in which Chinese poetry's habitus existed and the impressive existence mode at the turning point of the modern era. Although, the creation of Hwaunsi reflects his disposition of liking the old things, it is judged that his psychology, resisting modern characters' change, affected to some degree in the hidden side. In this regard, Simaje's Hwaunsi encounters limitation on its own, however, it has significance in that some hidden facts were revealed in the modern Chinese poetry history, which was captured with attention under the name of novelty, eccentricity and modernity.

Developing a Scale for Measuring the Corporate Social Responsibility Activities of Korea Corporation: Focusing on the Consumers' Awareness (한국형 기업의 사회적 책임활동 측정을 위한 척도 개발 연구: 소비자 인식을 중심으로)

  • Park, Jongchul;Kim, Kyungjin;Lee, Hanjoon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.27-52
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    • 2010
  • It is not new that today's business organizations are expected to exhibit ethical and moral management and to carry out social responsibility as a good corporate citizen. Since South Korea emerged as a newly industrialized country during the 1980s, Korean corporations have become active in carrying out their social responsibility as a good corporate citizen to society. In spite of the short history of corporate social responsibility, Korean companies have actively participated in corporate philanthropy. Corporations' significant donations to various social causes, no-lay-off policies, corporate volunteerism and green marketing are evidences of their commitment to corporate citizenship. Corporate social responsibility is now an essential management practice whereby corporation can strengthen its sustainable value creation processes by enhancing the trust assets underlying the relationships between the business and the stakeholders. Much of the conceptual work in the area of corporate social responsibility(CSR) has originated from researches conducted in the management field. Carroll(1979) proposed that corporations have four types of social responsibilities: economic, legal, ethical and philanthropic responsibility. Most past research has investigated CSR and its impact on consumers' attitudes toward the corporations and corporate performances. Although there exists a large body of literature on how consumers perceive and respond to CSR, the majority of past studies were conducted in the United States. The stability and applicability of past findings need to be tested across different national/cultural settings, especially since corporate social responsibility is a reflection of implicit conformation with the expectations and criticism that society may have toward a corporation(Matten and Moon, 2004). In this study, we explored whether people in Korea perceive CSR of Korean corporations in the same four dimensions as done in the United States and what were the measurement items tapping each of these four dimensions. In order to investigate the dimensions of CSR and the measurement items for CSR perceived by Korean people, nine focus group interviews were conducted with several stakeholder groups(two with undergraduate students, two with graduate students, three with general consumers, and two with NGO groups). Scripts from the interviews revealed that the Korean stakeholders perceived four types of CSR which are the same as those proposed by Carroll(1979). However we found CSR issues unique to Korean corporations. For example for the economic responsibility, Korean people mentioned that the corporation needed to contribute to the economic development of the country by generating corporate profits. For the legal responsibility, Koreans included the "corporation need to follow the consumer protection law." For the ethical responsibility, they considered that the corporation needed to not promote false advertisement. In addition, Koreans thought that an ethical company should do transparent management. For the philanthropic responsibility, people in Korea thought that a corporation needed to return parts of its profits to the society for the betterment of society. The 28 items were developed based on the results of the nine focus group interviews, while considering the scale developed by Maignan and Ferrell(2001). Following the procedure proposed by Churchill(1979), we started by developing an item poll consisting of 28 items and purified the initial pool of items through exploratory, confirmatory factor analyses. 176 samples were sued for this analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis was performed on the 28 items in order to verify the underlying four factor structure. Study 1 provided new measurement items for tapping the Korean CSR dimensions, which can be useful for the future studies exploring the effects of CSR on Korean consumers' attitudes toward the corporations and corporate performances. And we found the CSR scale(17 items) has good reliability, discriminant validity and nomological validity. Economic Responsibility: "XYZ company continuously improves the quality of our products", "XYZ company has a procedure in place to respond to customer complaint", "XYZ company contributes to the economic development of our country by generating profits", "XYZ company is eager to hire people". Legal Responsibility: "XYZ company's products meet legal standards", "XYZ company seeks to comply with all laws regulating hiring and employee benefits", "XYZ company honors contractual obligations to its suppliers", "XYZ company's managers try to comply with the law related to the business operation". Ethical Responsibility: "XYZ company has a comprehensive code of conduct", "XYZ company does not promote a false or misleading advertisement", "XYZ company seems to conduct a transparent business", "XYZ company does a fair business with its suppliers or sub-contractors". Philanthropic Responsibility: "XYZ company encourages partnerships with local businesses and schools", "XYZ company supports sports and cultural activities", "XYZ company gives adequate contributions to charities considering its business size", "XYZ company encourages employees to support our community". Study 2 was condusted for comprehensive validity. 655 samples were used for this anlysis. Collected samples were tested by factor analysis and Crnbach's Alpha coefficiednts and were found to be satisfactory in terms of validity and reliability. Furthermore, fitness of the measurement model was tested by using conformatory factor analysis. χ2=880.73(df=160), GFI=0.891, AGFI=0.854, NFI=0.908, NNFI=0.913, RMR=0.059, RMESA=0.070. We hope that CSR scale could greatly facilitate research on Corporate social resposibility, it is by no means the final answer.

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The Impact of Entrepreneurial Passion on Competitive Advantage of SMEs and Sole Proprietors : Moderating Effect of Corporate Reputation (중소벤처기업·소상공인 CEO의 기업가적열정이 경쟁우위에 미치는 영향 : 기업평판의 조절 효과)

  • Lee, Hyung-tae;Yoo, Jae-won
    • Journal of Venture Innovation
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.77-99
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    • 2024
  • Small and medium-sized venture companies and small business owners play an important role in the Korean economy. According to the Ministry of SMEs and Startups' statistics survey in 2019, the proportion of all employees of small and medium-sized venture companies in Korea was 89.8%, which is overwhelmingly higher than that of Japan's 77.8% and Taiwan's 76.6%, so job creation for small and medium-sized venture companies in Korea is absolute. Compared to large companies, it is known that it is difficult for small and medium-sized venture companies in Korea to secure a competitive advantage due to low cost competitiveness, difficulties in R&D/marketing due to lack of capital, difficulties in securing networks, and lack of management know-how. Many scholars, including Kerr and Schumpeter, have studied entrepreneurship since the mid-1950s. Recently, research has been conducted in various fields such as business administration, psychology, and economics. However, research on the personal characteristics of CEOs of small and medium-sized venture companies such as entrepreneurial passion and corporate reputation, which is the overall image of companies, is still insufficient, and comparisons of effects between variables between groups (by industry, by pressure, etc.) have not yet been presented. Entrepreneurial passion plays an important role in promoting new business creation, job creation, and economic growth. Therefore, entrepreneurial Cultivating and promoting passion will also contribute to socioeconomic development. These are government policies, educational programs, and social awareness It can be achieved through improvement, etc., and is especially important in the current market conditions where innovation and growth are important. In conclusion Entrepreneurial passion is an important factor that has a positive effect on all individuals, businesses, and society. Therefore, research on entrepreneurial passion is It is an essential task to maximize these positive effects. In this study, in order to overcome the limitations of existing studies, entrepreneurs' Whether entrepreneurial passion, which is a personal characteristic, affects competitive advantage, absorption capacity and product and process innovation capabilities are Whether there is a mediating effect between entrepreneurial passion and competitive advantage. Finally, in the relationship between entrepreneurial passion and absorption capacity. The corporate reputation verifies whether it has a moderating effect, etc., and compares the influencing factors between variables by industry and pressure. It is intended to be verified empirically. In this study, 2023 conducted by the Small and Medium Business Distribution Center under the Ministry of SMEs and Startups for 312 CEOs of small and medium-sized venture companies and small business owners who participated in the online market support project for small and medium-sized venture companies and small business owners, December 2023 Survey and analysis were conducted from 1st to 20th, and the analysis used Smart PLS 4.0 to determine the impact on the relationship between variables. It was empirically verified. As a result of the study, it was found that entrepreneurial passion had a positive effect on absorption capacity, and the product was found And it was found to have a positive effect on process innovation capability and competitive advantage. In addition, the higher the corporate reputation, the more entrepreneurial it is. It was confirmed that passion had a greater effect on absorption capacity.