• Title/Summary/Keyword: 추정오차 분석

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Impacts of the Building Permit Area Change on the Forest Products Import Quantities in Korea (건축허가면적(建築許可面積)의 변화(變化)가 임산물(林産物) 수입(輸入)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Kim, Dong-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.90 no.2
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    • pp.217-226
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    • 2001
  • This study estimated the impacts of the building permit area change on the forest products import quantities in Korea. The first objective of this dissertation is to analyze whether there is any causal relationship between change in the building permit area and changes in the import quantities of forest products in Korea. Assuming that there is any causal relationship, the second objective is to evaluate the dynamics of the impacts of the building permit area change on the forest products import quantities in Korea. The relationship between the building permit area and the import quantity was represented by bivariate vector autoregressive or vector error correction model. Whether there is any causal relationship between change in the building permit area and changes in the import quantities of forest products was analyzed by the causality test of Granger. And the dynamics of the impacts of the building permit area change on the forest products import quantities were evaluated by variance decomposition analysis and impulse response analysis. The import quantity of forest products can be explained by the lagged building permit area variables and the lagged import quantity variables in Korea. Change in the building permit area causes change in the high-density fiberboard import quantity in Korea. In the bivariate model of the high-density fiberboard import quantity, after six months, the building permit area change accounts for about ten percent of variation in the import quantity, and its own change accounts for about ninety percent of variation in the import quantity. On the other hand, the impact of a shock to the building permit area is significant for about six months on the import quantity of high-density fiberboard in Korea. That is, if the building permit area change indeed had an impact on the import quantity of high-density fiberboard in Korea, it was only of a short-term nature.

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A Sensitivity Analysis of Design Parameters of an Underground Radioactive Waste Repository Using a Backpropagation Neural Network (Backpropagation 인공신경망을 이용한 지하 방사성폐기물 처분장 설계 인자의 민감도 분석)

  • Kwon, S.;Cho, W.J.
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.203-212
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    • 2009
  • The prediction of near field behavior around an underground high-level radioactive waste repository is important for the repository design as well as the safety assessment. In this study, a sensitivity analysis for seven parameters consisted of design parameters and material properties was carried out using a three-dimensional finite difference code. From the sensitivity analysis, it was found that the effects of borehole spacing, tunnel spacing, cooling time and rock thermal conductivity were more significant than the other parameters. For getting a statistical distribution of buffer and rock temperatures around the repository, an artificial neural network, backpropagation, was applied. The reliability of the trained neural network was tested with the cases with randomly chosen input parameters. When the parameter variation is within ${\pm}10%$, the prediction from the network was found to be reliable with about a 1% error. It was possible to calculate the temperature distribution for many cases quickly with the trained neural network. The buffer and rock temperatures showed a normal distribution with means of $98^{\circ}C$ and $83.9^{\circ}C$ standard deviations of $3.82^{\circ}C$ and $3.67^{\circ}C$, respectively. Using the neural network, it was also possible to estimate the required change in design parameters for reducing the buffer and rock temperatures for $1^{\circ}C$.

Analyzing Effective Thermal Conductivity of Rocks Using Structural Models (구조모델을 이용한 암석의 유효열전도도 분석)

  • Cha, Jang-Hwan;Koo, Min-Ho;Keehm, Young-Seuk;Lee, Young-Min
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.44 no.2
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    • pp.171-180
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    • 2011
  • For 21 rock samples consisting of granite, sandstone and the effective thermal conductivity (TC) was measured with the LFA-447 Nanoflash, and mineralogical compositions were also determined from XRD analysis. The structural models were used to examine the effects of quartz content and the size of minerals on TC of rocks. The experimental results showed that TC of rocks was strongly related to quartz content with $R^2$ value of 0.75. Therefore, the proposed regression model can be a useful tool for an approximate estimation of TC only from quartz content. Some samples with similar values of quartz content, however, illustrated great differences in TC, presumably caused by differences in the size of minerals. An analysis from structural models showed that TC of rocks with fine-grained minerals was likely to fall in the region between Series and EMT model, and it moved up to ME and Parallel model as the size of minerals increased. This progressive change of structural models implies that change of TC depending on the size of minerals is possibly related to the scale of experiments; TC was measured from a disk sample with a thickness of 3 mm. Therefore, in case of measurements with a thin sample, TC can be overestimated as compared to the real value in the field scale. The experimental data illustrated that the scale effect was more pronounced for rocks with bigger size of minerals. Thus, it is worthwhile to remember that using a measured TC as a representative value for the real field can be misleading when applied to many geothermal problems.

Nutritional Evaluation of Rice with Different Processing Treatments on in vitro Rumen Fermentation Characteristics and in situ Degradation (재고미의 가공처리에 따른 in vitro, in situ 소화율 및 발효성상 평가)

  • Yang, Sung-Jae;Jung, Eun-Sang;Kim, Han-Been;Shin, Taek-Soon;Cho, Byung-Wook;Cho, Seong-Keun;Kim, Byeong-Woo;Seo, Ja-Kyeom
    • Korean Journal of Organic Agriculture
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.281-296
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    • 2018
  • This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of different processing of rice on rumen fermentation in in vitro and in situ experiments. Different processing treatments (extruding, roasting, and steaming) were used in this study and all treatments were ground through a cyclone mill (Foss, Hillerød, Denmark) fitted with a 1 mm screen. Non-treated rice was considered to a control substrate. Then, all treatments were used in in vitro and in situ experiments. Total gas production and dry matter digestibility in control were lower than any other treatment at all incubation times (P<0.01). The lowest ammonia nitrogen ($NH_3-N$) concentration was observed in control among treatments at 6, 12, and 24 h incubation (P<0.01). Extruding had a highest total volatile fatty acids (VFA) concentration at 6, 12 h incubation (P<0.01) and Steaming exhibited a highest total VFA at 24 h (P<0.01). The lowest total VFA concentration was observed in control at 6, 12, and 24 h (P<0.01). In an in situ, The highest value of soluble fraction, degradation rates, effective degradability was observed in extruding (P<0.01). It was considered that feed processing increased dry matter digestibility, total VFA concentration, and decreased pH as well as $NH_3-N$ concentration indicating that processing may increase nutrient degradation of rice in the rumen.

Competitiveness of Energy Intensive Manufacturing Industries on Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Policies: Using Price Setting Power Model (온실가스 저감정책에 대한 에너지 다소비 제조업의 경쟁력 분석: 가격설정력 모형을 이용하여)

  • Han, Minjeong;Kim, Youngduk
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.489-529
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    • 2011
  • When greenhouse gas mitigation policies are implemented, energy intensive manufacturing industries are influenced much due to an increase in cost. However, industries that have price setting power are damaged less by the policies. Therefore, this paper analyzes vulnerability of energy intensive manufacturing industries to the policies by measuring price setting power of the industries. We analyzed price setting power model through ECM, employing the import prices and wages as independent variables. The industries that their prices react to import prices are price takers, which their prices are determined by rival's ones. On the other hand, the industry that their prices react to wages that mean domestic cost are price setters, and they will be less vulnerable to the policies. In addition, fluctuation of energy prices would be reflected in import prices because it influences other countries than my one. Thus, we employed energy prices as control variable to measure the net effects of import prices. As empirical results, petroleum products, chemical products, non-metallic mineral products, textiles, and motor vehicles sector have price setting power, so the industries have competitiveness on greenhouse gas mitigation policies.

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A Study on the Collision Risk Perception Index to OOW's According to Vessel Encountering Situations (선박조우 상황별 항해당직자의 충돌위기체감지수에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Dae-Sik;Yim, Jeong-Bin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.98-107
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is for Human error prevention to acquire Collision Risk Perception Index (CRPI) sensed by the Officer Of the Watch (OOW) when the approaching distances are reduced in six types of ship encountering situations (Head on, $045^{\circ}$, $090^{\circ}$, $135^{\circ}$, Overtaking, Overtaken) between own ship and a target ship and then to predict CRPI fitting coefficients with polynomials in the curve-fitting process. CRPI acquisition experiments are carried out on two coast-guard ships and with the total of 30 crew members. Analysing results shows that CRPI data have goodness of fit to the six types of encountering situation. Futhermore, the One-Way ANOVA results show that CRPI has a negative affect to the OOW's age, career and license grade as the approaching distances is reduced. The availability of CRPI curve fitting with 3 degrees of polynomial was testified through the RMSE as 1.19 to Head on, 0.87 to $045^{\circ}$, 0.81 to $090^{\circ}$, 0.71 to $135^{\circ}$, 1.29 to Overtaking and 0.87 to Overtaken.

Model for the Connection-Time of Vehicle-to-Mobile RSU (V2MR) Communications Near a Bus Station (버스 정류소 주변에서 자동차-이동기지국 (V2MR) 통신의 연결시간에 대한 성능분석모형)

  • Jeong, Han-You;Purnaningtyas, Magdalena Trie;Nguyen, Hoa-Hung
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.41 no.12
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    • pp.1969-1977
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    • 2016
  • We study the connection time of vehicle-to-mobile roadside unit (V2MR) communications which can reduce the significant cost of the fixed RSU by installing a gateway of mobile network into a transit bus called the mobile RSU. In the V2MR communications, the connectivity of a commute vehicle can be improved via ad-hoc connection to a nearby mobile RSU. In this paper, we present a new analysis model to estimate the connection time between a commute vehicle and a mobile RSU, when there is a bus station in the overlapping route. Since the connection time between two vehicles is highly dynamic and unpredictable, our analysis will provide a fundamental basis of connection-time estimation of V2MR communications. Numerical results obtained from VEINS simulation show that our analysis can estimate the connection time of V2MR communications with the average error below 1.0 percent. Moreover, we show that the average connection time of V2MR communications can be extended to approximately 3.85 times of that of V2R communications.

Detection of Imprinted Quantitative Traits Loci (QTL) for Reproductive and Growth Traits in Region of IGF II Gene on fig Chromosome (돼지 염색체상의 IGF II 유전자 인접 부위에서 번식 및 성장형질에 연관된 Imprinting 양적형질 유전자 좌위(QTL)의 탐색)

  • Lee, Hakkyo
    • Korean Journal of Animal Reproduction
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.295-304
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    • 2001
  • Characterization of quantitative trait loci (QTL) was investigated in the experimental crosses between Berkshire and Yorkshire breed. A total of 525 F$_2$ progenies from 65 matting of F$_1$ Parents were produced. Phenotypic measurements included average daily gain (ADG), average back fat thickness (ABF), and loin eye area (LEA). To identify the presence of QTL for reproductive performance, birth weight (BWT) and body weight at 16 days (16DAY) were included as indirect trait. QTL segregation was deduced using 8 markers assigned to chromosome 2 (SSC2). Quantitative trait locus analyses were performed using interval mapping by regression under line-cross model. Presence of imprinting was tested under the statistical model that separated the expression of paternally and maternally inherited alleles. To set the evidence of QTL presence, significance thresholds were derived by permutation following statistical tests, respectively. Genome scan revealed significant evidence for three quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting growth and body compositions, of which two were identified to be QTL with imprinting expression mode near the ICF II gene region. For average back fat thickness (ABF), a paternally expressed QTL was found on chromosome 2 (SSC2). A paternally expressed QTL affecting loin eye area (LEA) was found in the region of SSC2 where evidence of imprinted QTL was found for average back fat thickness (ABF). For average daily gain (ADG), QTL expressed with Mendelian mode was found on chromosome 2 (SS2). Also, QTL affecting average daily gain (ADC), was identified to be expressed with Mendelian express mode.

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Analysis of the relationship among water-efficiency in the non-agricultural sector, economic growth, electricity generation, and CO2 emission - evidence from Korea - (우리나라에서 비농업 부문의 물 효율성, 경제성장, 전력생산 및 CO2배출 간의 관계 분석)

  • Jung, Yonghun;Lee, Seong-Hoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.12
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    • pp.1229-1235
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    • 2018
  • We have examined dynamic relationships among water-efficiency, economic growth, electricity generation, and $CO_2$ emissions in Korea using various time-series analysis methods for 1990-2014. While previous studies have been limited to economic growth, $CO_2$ emissions, and electricity generation, this study contributed to explain the relationship between existing variables and water-efficiency. We find that the four variables reach a balanced state in the long run through short-term adjustment, $CO_2$ emissions and economic growth are responsible for water efficiency, and that $CO_2$ emissions, economic growth and water efficiency are the causes of electricity generation. The long-term impact coefficient estimates on water-efficiency show that the increase in electricity generation and the decrease in $CO_2$ emissions increase water-efficiency. Although economic growth has increased water-efficiency, moreover, we have identified an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and water-efficiency, which suggests that economic growth above a certain level reduces the rate of increase in water-efficiency.

Calculation of surface image velocity fields by analyzing spatio-temporal volumes with the fast Fourier transform (고속푸리에변환을 이용한 시공간 체적 표면유속 산정 기법 개발)

  • Yu, Kwonkyu;Liu, Binghao
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.11
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    • pp.933-942
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    • 2021
  • The surface image velocimetry was developed to measure river flow velocity safely and effectively in flood season. There are a couple of methods in the surface image velocimetry. Among them the spatio-temporal image velocimetry is in the spotlight, since it can estimate mean velocity for a period of time. For the spatio-temporal image velocimetry analyzes a series of images all at once, it can reduce analyzing time so much. It, however, has a little drawback to find out the main flow direction. If the direction of spatio-temporal image does not coincide to the main flow direction, it may cause singnificant error in velocity. The present study aims to propose a new method to find out the main flow direction by using a fast Fourier transform(FFT) to a spatio-temporal (image) volume, which were constructed by accumulating the river surface images along the time direction. The method consists of two steps; the first step for finding main flow direction in space image and the second step for calculating the velocity magnitude in main flow direction in spatio-temporal image. In the first step a time-accumulated image was made from the spatio-temporal volume along the time direction. We analyzed this time-accumulated image by using FFT and figured out the main flow direction from the transformed image. Then a spatio-temporal image in main flow direction was extracted from the spatio-temporal volume. Once again, the spatio-temporal image was analyzed by FFT and velocity magnitudes were calculated from the transformed image. The proposed method was applied to a series of artificial images for error analysis. It was shown that the proposed method could analyze two-dimensional flow field with fairly good accuracy.