• Title/Summary/Keyword: 초기확률

Search Result 441, Processing Time 0.03 seconds

Estimation of Optimal Size of the Treatment Facility for Nonpoint Source Pollution due to Watershed Development (비점오염원의 정량화방안에 따른 적정 설계용량결정)

  • Kim, Jin-Kwan
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
    • /
    • v.8 no.6
    • /
    • pp.149-153
    • /
    • 2008
  • The pollutant capacity occurred before and after the development of a watershed should be quantitatively estimated and controlled for the minimization of water contamination. The Ministry of Environment suggested a guideline for the legal management of nonpoint source from 2006. However, the rational method for the determination of treatment capacity from nonpoint source proposed in the guideline has the problem in the field application because it does not reflect the project based cases and overestimates the pollutant load to be reduced. So, we perform the standard rainfall analysis by analytical probabilistic method for the estimation of an additional pollutant load occurred by a project and suggest a methodology for the estimation of contaminant capacity instead of a simple rational method. The suggested methodology in this study could determine the reasonable capacity and efficiency of a treatment facility through the estimation of pollutant load from nonpoint source and from this we can manage the watershed appropriately. We applied a suggested methodology to the projects of housing land development and a dam construction in the watersheds. When we determine the treatment capacity by a rational method without consideration of the types of projects we should treat the 90% of pollutant capacity occurred by the development and to do so, about 30% of the total cost for the development should be invested for the treatment facility. This requires too big cost and is not realistic. If we use the suggested method the target pollutant capacity to be reduced will be 10 to 30% of the capacity occurred by the development and about 5 to 10% of the total cost can be used. The control of nonpoint source must be performed for the water resources management. However it is not possible to treat the 90% of pollutant load occurred by the development. The proper pollutant capacity from nonpoint source should be estimated and controlled based on various project types and in reality, this is very important for the watershed management. Therefore the results of this study might be more reasonable than the rational method proposed in the Ministry of Environment.

Study on the Methodology of the Microbial Risk Assessment in Food (식품중 미생물 위해성평가 방법론 연구)

  • 이효민;최시내;윤은경;한지연;김창민;김길생
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.319-326
    • /
    • 1999
  • Recently, it is continuously rising to concern about the health risk being induced by microorganisms in food such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Listeria monocytogenes. Various organizations and regulatory agencies including U.S.FPA, U.S.DA and FAO/WHO are preparing the methodology building to apply microbial quantitative risk assessment to risk-based food safety program. Microbial risks are primarily the result of single exposure and its health impacts are immediate and serious. Therefore, the methodology of risk assessment differs from that of chemical risk assessment. Microbial quantitative risk assessment consists of tow steps; hazard identification, exposure assessment, dose-response assessment and risk characterization. Hazard identification is accomplished by observing and defining the types of adverse health effects in humans associated with exposure to foodborne agents. Epidemiological evidence which links the various disease with the particular exposure route is an important component of this identification. Exposure assessment includes the quantification of microbial exposure regarding the dynamics of microbial growth in food processing, transport, packaging and specific time-temperature conditions at various points from animal production to consumption. Dose-response assessment is the process characterizing dose-response correlation between microbial exposure and disease incidence. Unlike chemical carcinogens, the dose-response assessment for microbial pathogens has not focused on animal models for extrapolation to humans. Risk characterization links the exposure assessment and dose-response assessment and involve uncertainty analysis. The methodology of microbial dose-response assessment is classified as nonthreshold and thresh-old approach. The nonthreshold model have assumption that one organism is capable of producing an infection if it arrives at an appropriate site and organism have independence. Recently, the Exponential, Beta-poission, Gompertz, and Gamma-weibull models are using as nonthreshold model. The Log-normal and Log-logistic models are using as threshold model. The threshold has the assumption that a toxicant is produce by interaction of organisms. In this study, it was reviewed detailed process including risk value using model parameter and microbial exposure dose. Also this study suggested model application methodology in field of exposure assessment using assumed food microbial data(NaCl, water activity, temperature, pH, etc.) and the commercially used Food MicroModel. We recognized that human volunteer data to the healthy man are preferred rather than epidemiological data fur obtaining exact dose-response data. But, the foreign agencies are studying the characterization of correlation between human and animal. For the comparison of differences to the population sensitivity: it must be executed domestic study such as the establishment of dose-response data to the Korean volunteer by each microbial and microbial exposure assessment in food.

  • PDF

New Tool to Simulate Microbial Contamination of on-Farm Produce: Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation (재배단계 농산물의 안전성 모의실험을 위한 개체기반 프로그램 개발)

  • Han, Sanghyun;Lee, Ki-Hoon;Yang, Seong-Gyu;Kim, Hwang-Yong;Kim, Hyun-Ju;Ryu, Jae-Gee
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
    • /
    • v.32 no.1
    • /
    • pp.8-13
    • /
    • 2017
  • This study was conducted to develop an agent-based computing platform enabling simulation of on-farm produce contamination by enteric foodborne pathogens, which is herein called PPMCS (Preharvest Produce Microbial Contamination Simulator). Also, fecal contamination of preharvest produce was simulated using PPMCS. Although Agent-based Modeling and Simulation, the tool applied in this study, is rather popular in where socio-economical human behaviors or ecological fate of animals in their niche are to be predicted, the incidence of on-farm produce contamination which are thought to be sporadic has never been simulated using this tool. The agents in PPMCS including crop, animal as a source of fecal contamination, and fly as a vector spreading the fecal contamination are given their intrinsic behaviors that are set to be executed at certain probability. Once all these agents are on-set following the intrinsic behavioral rules, consequences as the sum of all the behaviors in the system can be monitored real-time. When fecal contamination of preharvest produce was simulated in PPMCS as numbers of animals, flies, and initially contaminated plants change, the number of animals intruding cropping area affected most on the number of contaminated plants at harvest. For further application, the behaviors and variables of the agents are adjustable depending on user's own scenario of interest. This feature allows PPMCS to be utilized in where different simulating conditions are tested.

Improved AR-FGS Coding Scheme for Scalable Video Coding (확장형 비디오 부호화(SVC)의 AR-FGS 기법에 대한 부호화 성능 개선 기법)

  • Seo, Kwang-Deok;Jung, Soon-Heung;Kim, Jin-Soo;Kim, Jae-Gon
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
    • /
    • v.31 no.12C
    • /
    • pp.1173-1183
    • /
    • 2006
  • In this paper, we propose an efficient method for improving visual quality of AR-FGS (Adaptive Reference FGS) which is adopted as a key scheme for SVC (Scalable Video Coding) or H.264 scalable extension. The standard FGS (Fine Granularity Scalability) adopts AR-FGS that introduces temporal prediction into FGS layer by using a high quality reference signal which is constructed by the weighted average between the base layer reconstructed imageand enhancement reference to improve the coding efficiency in the FGS layer. However, when the enhancement stream is truncated at certain bitstream position in transmission, the rest of the data of the FGS layer will not be available at the FGS decoder. Thus the most noticeable problem of using the enhancement layer in prediction is the degraded visual quality caused by drifting because of the mismatch between the reference frame used by the FGS encoder and that by the decoder. To solve this problem, we exploit the principle of cyclical block coding that is used to encode quantized transform coefficients in a cyclical manner in the FGS layer. Encoding block coefficients in a cyclical manner places 'higher-value' bits earlier in the bitstream. The quantized transform coefficients included in the ealry coding cycle of cyclical block coding have higher probability to be correctly received and decoded than the others included in the later cycle of the cyclical block coding. Therefore, we can minimize visual quality degradation caused by bitstream truncation by adjusting weighting factor to control the contribution of the bitstream produced in each coding cycle of cyclical block coding when constructing the enhancement layer reference frame. It is shown by simulations that the improved AR-FGS scheme outperforms the standard AR-FGS by about 1 dB in maximum in the reconstructed visual quality.

Mid-term Results of the Congenital Bicuspid Aortic Valve Repair (선천성 이엽성 대동맥판막질환에 대한 판막성형술의 중기 성적)

  • 조광리;곽재건;안혁
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.37 no.10
    • /
    • pp.833-838
    • /
    • 2004
  • Background: Despite the excellent early results after the repair of congenital bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) disease, the mid-term durability of the repaired valve has still controversies. Material and Method: To evaluate the mid-term results of BAV repair, retrospective review of medical records and echocardiographic data were done. Between 1994 and 2003, twenty-two patients underwent reparative procedure for either regurgitant or stenotic congenital bicuspid aortic valve (BAV). Result: Mean age was $41\pm14$ years with male predominance (Male=17, Female=5). The pathophysiologies of the BAV were regurgitation-dominant in 20 (91%) and stenosis-dominant in 2 (9%) cases. Various repair techniques were used for raphe, prolapsed leaflet, thickened leaflet, and commissures; 1) release of raphe in 19 (86%), 2) wedge resection and primary repair in 11 (50%), pericardial patch reinforcement after plication of the leaflet in 6 (27%), and plication of the leaflet in 3 (14%), 3) slicing of thickened leaflet was used in 12 (55%) cases, 4) commissuroplasty in 8 (36%), and commissurotomy in 6 (27%) cases. There was no in-hospital mortality. During the mean follow-up of $38\pm17$ months, one patient underwent aortic valve replacement after developing acute severe regurgitation from dehiscence of the suture on postoperative 2 months. New York Heart Association functional class was improved from $1.9\pm0.6$ to $1.2\pm0.5$ (p<0.01). Left ventricular end-systolic and diastolic dimension (LVESD/LVEDD) were also improved from $45\pm9$ and $67\pm10$ to $37\pm10$ and $56\pm10,$ respectively (p<0.01). The grade of aortic regurgitation (AR) was improved from preoperative $(3.1\pm1.2)$ to post-bypass $(0.9\pm0.7).$ However, the grade at last follow-up $(1.7\pm1.1)$ was deteriorated during the follow-up period (p<0.01). Freedom from grade III and more AR at one, three, and four year were 89.7%, 89.7%, and 39.9% respectively. Conclusion: Midterm clinical result of the BAV repair was favorable. But, the durability of the repaired valve was not satisfactory.

A Study on the Relationships Between Demographic Characteristics of Entrepreneurial Candidates, their Developmental Level of Entrepreneurial Traits and Choice of Business Field (예비 창업자의 인구학적 특성과 창업성향 발달도 및 창업업종 선정에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Joong Seog;Sung, Sang Hyeon
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
    • /
    • v.10 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1-13
    • /
    • 2015
  • The purpose of this research is to do exploratory analysis on the relationships between demographic characteristics of entrepreneurial candidates and their developmental level of entrepreneurial traits as well as the choice of business field. We analyzed gender, age, and educational level of the entrepreneurial candidates and their developmental level of entrepreneurial traits such as achievement tendencies, degree of awareness, planning skills, sincerity, interpersonal relationship, and problem-solving skills. Industry fields were classified into 4 types: restaurants, retail, services, internet business. Descriptive statistical analyses, logistic regressions, and variance analyses were performed about the sample data gathered from 1,441 persons since the year 2002 to 2014. Males and highly educated above university preferred service industry than restaurant, retail, and internet business. Females preferred internet business, retail, and restaurants than service industry field. The young persons under 20 showed higher probability to choose internet business. The college level and high school graduates preferred retail and restaurants than service industry. The developmental level of entrepreneurial traits were higher in male and highly educated. By this study, we could find the divide between groups with high and low probabilities of failure: restaurants and retail field showed higher failure probability than service industry in the business fields of self-employed. Furthermore, we could identify that entrepreneurial traits also had been developed differently depending on the groups. It is necessary to refrain from entering into the fields with high failure probabilities as well as to provide supporting policies to build the systems and environment to reduce the cases to begin new business without special knowledges and know-hows. The competency development training should be provided in the early stage of start-ups considering their entrepreneurial traits and aptitudes. Not only the assessment of the entrepreneurial traits but also professional counseling from initial stage are necessary.

  • PDF

Internal Mammary Lymph Node Irradiation after Breast Conservation Surgery: Radiation Pneumonitis versus Dose-Volume Histogram Parameters (유방보존술 후 내유림프절 방사선 조사: 방사선 폐렴과 체적-선량 히스토그램 변수들)

  • Kim, Joo-Young;Lee, Ik-Jae;Keum, Ki-Chang;Kim, Yong-Bae;Shim, Su-Jung;Jeong, Kyoung-Keun;Kim, Jong-Dae;Suh, Chang-Ok
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
    • /
    • v.25 no.4
    • /
    • pp.261-267
    • /
    • 2007
  • Purpose: To evaluate the association between radiation pneumonitis and dose-volume histogram parameters and to provide practical guidelines to prevent radiation pneumonitis following radiotherapy administered for breast cancer including internal mammary lymph nodes. Materials and Methods: Twenty patients with early breast cancer who underwent a partial mastectomy were involved in this study. The entire breast, supraclavicular lymph nodes, and internal mammary lymph nodes were irradiated with a dose of 50.4 Gy in 28 fractions. Radiation pneumonitis was assessed by both radiological pulmonary change (RPC) and by evaluation of symptomatic radiation pneumonitis. Dose-volume histogram parameters were compared between patients with grade <2 RPC and those with grade ${\geq}$2 RPC. The parameters were the mean lung dose, V10 (percent lung volume receiving equal to and more than 10 Gy), V20, V30, V40, and normal tissue complication probability (NTCP). Results: Of the 20 patients, 9 (45%) developed grade 2 RPC and 11 (55%) did not develop RPC (grade 0). Only one patient developed grade 1 symptomatic radiation pneumonitis. Univariate analysis showed that among the dose-volume histogram parameters, NTCP was significantly different between the two RPC grade groups (p<0.05). Fisher's exact test indicated that an NTCP value of 45% was appropriate as an RPC threshold level. Conclusion: This study shows that NTCP can be used as a predictor of RPC after radiotherapy of the internal mammary lymph nodes in breast cancer. Clinically, it indicates that an RPC is likely to develop when the NTCP is greater than 45%.

Clinical Experience of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm (복부 대동맥류 수술의 임상적 고찰)

  • Kwak, Young-Tae;Lim, Sang-Hyun;Lee, Sak;Yoo, Kyung-Jong;Chang, Byung-Chul;Kang, Meyun-Shick;Hong, Yoo-Sun
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
    • /
    • v.36 no.4
    • /
    • pp.261-266
    • /
    • 2003
  • Background: Surgery of abdominal aortic aneurysm revealed high operative mortality. We reviewed our 11-years' experiences of abdominal aortic aneurysm operation and wish to obtain information on the treatment. Material and Method: From Jan. 1990 to Dec. 2000, 48 patients were operated due to abdominal aortic aneurysm in Yonsei Cardiovascular Center Mean age was $62.8{\pm}12.7$ and there were 40 males and 8 females. Among 48 patients, nine patients had ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, and mean aneurysm diameter of non-ruptured cases was $8.8{\pm}2.4$cm. Result: There were 6 early deaths, and early mortality was 12.5%. Among 9 patients of preoperative aneurysm rupture, three patients died (33.3%), and among 39 patients of non-ruptured cases, 3 patients died (7.7%). Among preoperative variables, age (p<0.05), preoperative BUN level (p<0.05), and DM (p<0.05) were risk factors of early mortality. Among discharged 42 patients, 40 patients were followed up (f/u rate=95.2%) and mean follow up was $3.6{\pm}0.2$ years. During follow up periods, five patients died (late mortality=11.9%), and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed $81.7{\pm}7.6$% survival rate at five and ten year. Linealized incidence of graft related event was 3.53% per patient-year. Conclusion: Surgical mortality of ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm was higher than non-ruptured cases; therefore, early resection of the aneurysm can decrease the surgical mortality.

Soil Salinity and Vegetation Distribution at Four Tidal Reclamation Project Areas (4개 간척 지구에 분포하는 식생과 토양 염류농도)

  • Lee, Seung-Heon;Ji, Kwang-Jae;An, Yeoul;Ro, Hee-Myong
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
    • /
    • v.22 no.2
    • /
    • pp.79-86
    • /
    • 2003
  • This research was conducted to present reference data to be used as newly reclaimed tidal land management. We investigated vegetation succession at 4 reclaimed/reclaiming project areas and discussed relationship with soil and vegetation trhrough investigation and analysis soil chemical characteristics at 2 areas. 14 families 58 kinds were investigated. Vegetation were variou at Dea-Ho conservation polt and Seok-Mun National Industrial Area which are maintaining naturally. Vegetation were simple at Hong-Bo and Dongjin and MinKyong river areas which effected sea water. Common species that were investigated at 9 sites were Suaeda asparagoides, Aster tripolium, Phragmites australis, Suaeda maritima, Suaeda japonica, Carex scabrifolis. As soil desalinization progressing, soil classified at first saline-soidc soil, the nest saline soil and then normal soil. Chenopodiaceae revealed at about 30 dS/m of soil ECe and existed to 10 dS/m of soil ECe. At about 20 dS/m of soil ECe. Aster tripolium, Calamagrostis epigeios, and Sonchus brachyotus revealed and then non-halophytes and common plants at inland revealed at low soil ECe of about 10 dS/m. However it was not to progress vegetation sucdession and soil desalinization at the same time, owing to input of seeds or plants ect from out-ecosystem. So for promotion of vegetation at newly reclaimed tidal land, we proposed that it was very effective to plant artificially halophytes or suitable species through soil test.

Optimum Management Plan for Soil Contamination Facilities (특정토양오염관리대상시설의 최적 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Soo;Kim, Ki-Ho;Kim, Hae-Keum;Choi, Sang-Il
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
    • /
    • v.45 no.2
    • /
    • pp.293-300
    • /
    • 2012
  • This study was to investigate the unsuitable rate of the storage facilities, the changes in corrosion process over time after installation according to the status, the time to install the facilities, years elapsed after facilities installation, inspection of methods and motivation, and so on, based on the results of the inspection at the petroleum storage facilities conducted by domestic soil-relate specialized agency to derive optimal management plans which meet the status of soil contamination facilities. The results showed that the facilities more than 5 years after the initial leak test at the time of the installation need to be inspected periodically by considering costs of leak test and remediation of polluted soil. The inspection period can be decided by cost and leak test methods showing discrepancies for the results obtained from individual test whether it was direct or indirect. To compensate these matters, we suggested that the direct inspection method on regular schedule is recommended. On the other hand, the inspection can be voluntarily completed to ease burden of the results by inspection or equivalent level to this inspection method. Also, it may need improved construction supervision and performance test system to minimize the occurrence of the nature defects in installing the facilities as well as the upgrade program for the facilities during intervals of inspection period.