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Crime Incident Prediction Model based on Bayesian Probability (베이지안 확률 기반 범죄위험지역 예측 모델 개발)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.89-101
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    • 2017
  • Crime occurs differently based on not only place locations and building uses but also the characteristics of the people who use the place and the spatial structures of the buildings and locations. Therefore, if spatial big data, which contain spatial and regional properties, can be utilized, proper crime prevention measures can be enacted. Recently, with the advent of big data and the revolutionary intelligent information era, predictive policing has emerged as a new paradigm for police activities. Based on 7420 actual crime incidents occurring over three years in a typical provincial city, "J city," this study identified the areas in which crimes occurred and predicted risky areas. Spatial regression analysis was performed using spatial big data about only physical and environmental variables. Based on the results, using the street width, average number of building floors, building coverage ratio, the type of use of the first floor (Type II neighborhood living facility, commercial facility, pleasure use, or residential use), this study established a Crime Incident Prediction Model (CIPM) based on Bayesian probability theory. As a result, it was found that the model was suitable for crime prediction because the overlap analysis with the actual crime areas and the receiver operating characteristic curve (Roc curve), which evaluated the accuracy of the model, showed an area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.8. It was also found that a block where the commercial and entertainment facilities were concentrated, a block where the number of building floors is high, and a block where the commercial, entertainment, residential facilities are mixed are high-risk areas. This study provides a meaningful step forward to the development of a crime prediction model, unlike previous studies that explored the spatial distribution of crime and the factors influencing crime occurrence.

멕시코 로얄 은광산 잠재성 평가

  • Heo, Cheol-Ho;Kim, Ui-Jun
    • 한국지구과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2010.04a
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    • pp.108-109
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    • 2010
  • IMPACT Silver 주식회사는 Zacualpan 프로젝트의 Royal Mines(이하 로얄 광산)을 인수했다. $124.5\;km^2$에 해당하는 지역의 소유권은 두 개의 멕시코 사기업으로부터 가행중인 광산의 채굴권 구입과 운영 중인 기반시설의 임대를 조건으로 한다. 프로젝트 지역은 멕시코시티로부터 남서방향으로 100 km와 Taxco Silver 광산으로부터 북서방향으로 25 km 떨어진 지점에 위치한다. 기반시설은 비포장 도로, 충분한 전력과 물의 공급 및 숙련공들을 갖추어 우수한 평가를 받고 있다. 소유권은 멕시코인의 개인소유 하에서 무한한 매장량 혹은 자원량을 갖고 운영된 채광과 가공시설을 인수하는 것이다. 소유권 지역을 대상으로 한 IMPACT Silver사의 주 탐사목적은 이미 알려진 광화대의 확장을 위한 잠재성 평가와 다른 지역에서 신규 광상의 유망지역을 발견하는 것이다. Zacualpan 프로젝트의 로얄 광산은 남동 Guerrero terrane의 북부에 위치한다. Teloloapan subterrane은 주로 저변성 녹색편암상으로 구성된 쥬라기 후기에서 백악기 초기의 화산성 퇴적층으로 구성된다. 대부분의 유망지역은 Lower Villa de Ayala층의 중성 내지 염기성 화산성 쇄설암을 모암으로 한다. 다상의 변성작용은 지역 전반에 걸쳐 나타나고, Zacualpan 광산지역에서 수반되는 광화작용을 규제한다. Zacualpan 광산지역은 Sierra Madre del Sur로 알려진 유망 광화대에 해당한다. 이 지역은 화산성 괴상 황화광상과 천열수 맥상광상이 우세하다. 대부분의 천열수 광화작용은 3.2-3.8억 년 전 마그마의 생성이 활발한 판구조 체제 동안 발생하였다. 역사적으로 가장 주요한 지역은 Lipton Vein이다. 현재 Zacualpan 지구에서 채광량은 은 200-500 g/t 정도로 보고되고 있다. 일부 지역은 고품위 은 광화작용(은 1,000 g/t 이상)을 수반하고 있으며, 이는 탐사의 주 타겟이 되고 있다. Zacualpan에서 은 광화작용은 은이 부화된 중유황 천열수 맥상광상으로 상당히 유명하다. Fresnillo, Pachuca 및 Taxco 광산을 포함한 멕시코 소유의 대규모의 잘 알려진 광산들이 이에 해당한다. 이러한 광산들은 부산물로서 금, 아연, 연이 생산된다. 이러한 광상들은 맥상과 각력상 및 산점상 또는 망상세맥의 형태로 산출된다. 광화작용은 석영과 탄산염 맥 내에 주로 황철석과 다양한 섬아연석, 방연석, 은 혹은 금 광물들을 수반한다. 경제성을 갖는 광화작용의 수직적인 연장은 평균적으로 대략 300 m이고, 멕시코 중부에 위치한 Fresnillo의 광화작용은 100 m에서 960 m의 연장을 갖는 것으로 알려져 있다. 아주 오랫동안 Zacualpan에서 광산관계자의 관측과 IMPACT Silver에서 최근 작업의 결과를 토대로, Zacualpan 광산지역의 탐사모델은 새로운 광상의 탐사를 위한 가이드로서 개발되었다. Zacualpan 광산지역에서 가장 높은 경제성을 갖는 광화작용은 북서와 남북방향의 맥 구조를 따라 수반된다. 이러한 맥 구조들은 종종 이 지역을 가로질러 수 km까지 추적되지만, 경제성을 갖는 광화작용은 맥 구조를 따라서 구조적으로 유리한 지역에서 부광대를 형성한다. 부광대를 형성하기 위한 가장 유리한 구조적 지역은 북서와 남북방향으로 발달한 맥 구조들이 교차하는 지역이다. 지난 30년간 채광된 주요 부광대는 폭이 2-6 m 이고 수평연장은 30-150 m 그리고 수직연장은 230-300 m에 이른다. 가장 높은 생산량을 보이는 부광대는 남북방향의 이차 맥들이 Guadalupe 광산의 Lipton 맥을 가로지르는 지역에서 발달한다. 남동쪽으로 현재 Compadres 광산의 Silver Shoot No. 1으로부터 고품위 은을 생산하는 지역은 북서방향의 San Agustin 맥이 북향의 Cometa Navideno 맥에 의해 절단되는 지역에서 산출한다. 모암은 광화작용을 규제하는 또 다른 중요한 요소이다. 광산지역에서 경제성을 갖는 모든 광화작용은 중성 내지 염기성 화산암 특히 안산암과 관련 모암에 배태된다. 부광대가 셰일 혹은 편암으로 전이되는 지역에서, 맥들은 소규모의 세맥으로 나뉘어 진다. Zacualpan의 전형적인 천열수 광상에서 부광대는 상부로 가면서 은의 함량이 증가하고, 하부로 가면서 연 아연의 함량이 증가하는 수직적 대상을 보인다. 금의 함량 변화는 보다 예측이 어려우나 상당히 중요하다. Zacualpan 광산지역의 탐사모델에 사용된 토양 채취, 정밀지도제작, 트렌치 및 시추탐광은 현재 IMPACT Silver사가 이 지역을 대상으로 한 가장 효율적인 탐사방법으로 입증되었다. Zacualpan 프로젝트의 로얄 광산은 하루 500 톤을 제련하는 기반시설과 수반된 채굴권을 갖는 가행 광산들을 포함한다. 현재 IMPACT Silver사는 두 곳의 타겟 지역에서 정밀지도제작, 토양 및 암석 채취, 12공 총 1866 m의 시추탐광에 의한 사전조사로 구성된 4 단계 탐사를 수행했다. 암석 1,953개, 토양 1,631 개, 389 개의 시추코어 시료가 채집되고 분석되었다. 이러한 작업은 추가탐사를 요구하는 수많은 유망 광화대를 규명했다. Compadres 광산에서 현재 가행중인 지하갱 시료는 레벨 1에서 0.9 m의 폭을 갖는 광체에서 은 680 g/t과 금 0.3 g/t, 레벨 3에서 1.67 m의 폭을 갖는 광체에서 은 12,591 g/t과 금 12.07 g/t의 품위를 갖는 것으로 나타났다. 레벨 1에서 3까지 2-3 m의 폭과 30-40 m 연장으로 채광되었다. 시추탐광은 고품위를 갖는 몇몇의 중첩된 맥을 발견했다. Compadres 광산에서 남동방향으로 200 m지점에 위치한 Soledad 지역에서 5 개의 시추공으로부터 동일 맥 시스템이 발견되었고, 고품위 부광대의 상부로 간주되는 몇몇 중요 지점이 발견되었다. 초기 단계의 탐사는 유망 시추탐광 지역인 중간정도 내지 고품위 유망 광화대를 규명했다.

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A Study on Basic Plan for Upscaling Environmental Conservation Value Assessment Map(ECVAM) of National Land in South Korea (대축척 국토환경성평가지도 작성방안 연구)

  • Lee, Moung-Jin;Jeon, Seong-Woo;Lee, Chong-Soo;Kang, Byung-Jin;Song, Won-Kyong
    • Journal of Environmental Policy
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.115-145
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    • 2007
  • This study was performed for developing upscaling Environmental Conservation Value Assessment Map(ECVAM) of National Land in South Korea and presenting the application method of ECVAM. This ECVAM adopted the least indicator method and uses a Geographic Information System(GIS). This map is made through evaluation of 67 items. As a result, the construction of ECVAM was defined as a process of identifying land use to scientifically assess the physical and environmental value of land and classify conservation value into several grades for the sustainable management of environmental resources. After applying ECVAM criteria of five degrees to the whole of study area, Grade I, showing the highest conservation value, accounted for 29.3% by land area of ECVAM. Grades II, III, IV and V likewise accounted for, respectively, 21.7%, 17.2%, 7.1% and the lowest conservation value of 24.7%. other result, ECVAM and land suitability assessment agreement rate is Grade I 33.05%, Grades II, III, IV and V likewise accounted for 12.92%, 15.05%, 36.93% and last value of 53.28% This study set up "the realization of the improvement ECVAM" as the vision of the advancing strategy. In order to accomplish the vision, this study established the purpose as follow; constructing strategic assessment value relation to ECVAM based on knowledge, arranging the foundation to upscaling assessment value And this study devised preparatory plans to achieve the vision and the purpose as next; construction on base theme map by 1:5,000 scalie, base on land register theme map and precision land cover map. Therefore, for applying the result of this study to the upscaling Environmental Conservation Value Assessment Map(ECVAM), it considers regularly the systematic categorization of preceding item, consideration issue of national environmental geographic information using the ECVAM.

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Evaluation of the accuracy of two different surgical guides in dental implantology: stereolithography fabricated vs. positioning device fabricated surgical guides (제작방법에 따른 임플란트 수술 가이드의 정확성비교: stereolithography와 positioning device로 제작한 수술 가이드)

  • Kwon, Chang-Ryeol;Choi, Byung-Ho;Jeong, Seung-Mi;Joo, Sang-Dong
    • The Journal of Korean Academy of Prosthodontics
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    • v.50 no.4
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    • pp.271-278
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    • 2012
  • Purpose: Recently implant surgical guides were used for accurate and atraumatic operation. In this study, the accuracy of two different types of surgical guides, positioning device fabricated and stereolithography fabricated surgical guides, were evaluated in four different types of tooth loss models. Materials and methods: Surgical guides were fabricated with stereolithography and positioning device respectively. Implants were placed on 40 models using the two different types of surgical guides. The fitness of the surgical guides was evaluated by measuring the gap between the surgical guide and the model. The accuracy of surgical guide was evaluated on a pre- and post-surgical CT image fusion. Results: The gap between the surgical guide and the model was $1.4{\pm}0.3mm$ and $0.4{\pm}0.3mm$ for the stereolithography and positioning device surgical guide, respectively. The stereolithography showed mesiodistal angular deviation of $3.9{\pm}1.6^{\circ}$, buccolingual angular deviation of $2.7{\pm}1.5^{\circ}$ and vertical deviation of $1.9{\pm}0.9mm$, whereas the positioning device showed mesiodistal angular deviation of $0.7{\pm}0.3^{\circ}$, buccolingual angular deviation of $0.3{\pm}0.2^{\circ}$ and vertical deviation of $0.4{\pm}0.2mm$. The differences were statistically significant between the two groups (P<.05). Conclusion: The laboratory fabricated surgical guides using a positioning device allow implant placement more accurately than the stereolithography surgical guides in dental clinic.

Prior Eco-preserve Zoning through Stream Ecosystem Evaluation on Dam Basin -A Case of Yongdam-dam Watershed, Jeollabukdo Province- (댐유역 하천생태계평가를 통한 생태보전우선지역설정 -용담다목적댐 유역을 사례로-)

  • Lim, Hyun-Jeong;Lee, Myung-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.103-112
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    • 2011
  • The purpose of this study is to specify the prior eco-preserve zone by establishing the eco-landscape unit on the stream corridor and evaluating the stream ecosystem in the dam basin. The fundamental ecological data was surveyed and collected through "the ecosystem project on Yongdam multipurpose dam watershed" from 2008 to 2009. The Yongdam Dam Watershed has several streams, Jujacheon, Jeongjacheon and Guryangcheon, of which the area is $930km^2$, stretching to Jinangun, Jangsugun and Mujugun Jellabukdo. In spite of being used for drinking purpose, the dam water quality and ecosystem is threatened by in-watershed pollution produced by development, golf course grounds and sports complex, etc. The landscape unit of stream corridor was zoned across by 250m, 500m, and 750m from the vicinity line of stream, which was decided to the accuracy of mapping and surveying. Types of evaluation are the Stream Corridor Evaluation(SCE) and the Vegetated Area Evaluation(VAE). In the process of SCE, several indices were analysed, fish species diversity, species peculiarity, and stream naturality. Indices for VAE were forest stand map, vegetation protection grade, species diversity and peculiarity for wild bird and mammal life. The importance of the ecological items is categorized into three levels and overlapped for specifying the prior preserve zone. The area at which legally protecting species appeared is categorized as absolute preserve area. This study might be meaningful for proposing the evaluation process of a stream corridor ecosystem, which can synthesize a lot of individual ecological surveys. We hope further research will be actively performed about the ecotope mapping which is based on a individual wildlife territory and habitats and also their relationships.

Timing of Diapause Induction and Number of Generations of Helicoverpa armigera (Hüber) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in Suwon, Korea (수원지방에서 왕담배나방 (밤나방과) 휴면 유기시기와 연간 발생 세대)

  • Jung, Jin Kyo;Seo, Bo Yoon;Park, Chang-Gyu;Ahn, Seung-Joon;Kim, Ju Il;Cho, Jum Rae
    • Korean journal of applied entomology
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    • v.54 no.4
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    • pp.383-392
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    • 2015
  • We investigated the induction of pupal diapause and number of generation for H. armigera using outdoor rearing and sex pheromone trapping in Suwon, Korea. Over-wintering pupae were induced when neonate larvae were reared in the outdoors from late Aug. to early Oct. in 2013 and 2014. H. armigera adults emerged from late May to early Jun. for 2013 colonies and from late May to late Jun. for 2014 colonies. The colonies placed after mid September produced only diapause pupae, to show environmental conditions that day-lengths on the rearing start date were 11 h 49 min~12 h 24 min, and mean temperatures before pupation were $14.8{\sim}20.7^{\circ}C$. Summer diapause was not observed in all colonies. The peak occurrence of H. armigera adults from sex pheromone trap in Suwon and Hwaseong were pooled and showed four generations (1st: from late Apr. to mid Jun., 2nd: from mid Jun. to late Jul., 3rd: from mid Jul. to late Aug., 4th: from late Aug. to mid Oct.). A degree-day model for development of H. armigera developed by Mironidis and Savopoulou-Soultani (2008) was used to validate the number of generation from field observations using pheromone traps. The 3rd and over-wintering generations were mainly overlapped. It was decided that H. armigera has one over-wintering and three complete generations in a year, and diapause is induced from offsprings of the 3rd and 4th generations adults. It is expected that larvae of the 1st and 2nd generations give a damage to ear zone in maize fields in which have been planted during April.

Extraction of Landmarks Using Building Attribute Data for Pedestrian Navigation Service (보행자 내비게이션 서비스를 위한 건물 속성정보를 이용한 랜드마크 추출)

  • Kim, Jinhyeong;Kim, Jiyoung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.203-215
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    • 2017
  • Recently, interest in Pedestrian Navigation Service (PNS) is being increased due to the diffusion of smart phone and the improvement of location determination technology and it is efficient to use landmarks in route guidance for pedestrians due to the characteristics of pedestrians' movement and success rate of path finding. Accordingly, researches on extracting landmarks have been progressed. However, preceding researches have a limit that they only considered the difference between buildings and did not consider visual attention of maps in display of PNS. This study improves this problem by defining building attributes as local variable and global variable. Local variables reflect the saliency of buildings by representing the difference between buildings and global variables reflects the visual attention by representing the inherent characteristics of buildings. Also, this study considers the connectivity of network and solves the overlapping problem of landmark candidate groups by network voronoi diagram. To extract landmarks, we defined building attribute data based on preceding researches. Next, we selected a choice point for pedestrians in pedestrian network data, and determined landmark candidate groups at each choice point. Building attribute data were calculated in the extracted landmark candidate groups and finally landmarks were extracted by principal component analysis. We applied the proposed method to a part of Gwanak-gu, Seoul and this study evaluated the extracted landmarks by making a comparison with labels and landmarks used by portal sites such as the NAVER and the DAUM. In conclusion, 132 landmarks (60.3%) among 219 landmarks of the NAVER and the DAUM were extracted by the proposed method and we confirmed that 228 landmarks which there are not labels or landmarks in the NAVER and the DAUM were helpful to determine a change of direction in path finding of local level.

Dose Distribution and Design of Dynamic Wedge Filter for 3D Conformal Radiotherapy (방사선 입체조형치료를 위한 동적쐐기여과판의 고안과 조직내 선량분포 특성)

  • 추성실
    • Progress in Medical Physics
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.77-88
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    • 1998
  • Wedge shaped isodoses are desired in a number of clinical situations. Hard wedge filters have provided nominal angled isodoses with dosimetric consequences of beam hardening, increased peripheral dosing, nonidealized gradients at deep depths along with the practical consequendes of filter handling and placement problems. Dynamic wedging uses a combination of a moving collimator and changing monitor dose to achieve angled isodoses. The segmented treatment tables(STT) that monitor unit setting by every distance of moving collimator, was induced by numerical formular. The characteristics of dynamic wedge by STT compared with real dosimetry. Methods and Materials : The accelerator CLINAC 2100C/D at Yonsei Cancer Center has two photon energies (6MV and 10MV), currently with dynamic wedge angles of 15$^{\circ}$, 30$^{\circ}$, 45$^{\circ}$ and 60$^{\circ}$. The segmented treatment tables(STT) that drive the collimator in concert with a changing monitor unit are unique for field sizes ranging from 4.0cm to 20.0cm in 0.5cm steps. Transmission wedge factors were measured for each STT with an standard ion chamber. Isodose profiles, isodose curves, percentage depth dose for dynamic wedge filters were measured with film dosimetry. Dynamic wedge angle by STT was well coincident with film dosimetry. Percent depth doses were found to be closer to open field but more shallow than hard wedge filter. The wedge transmission factor were decreased by increased the wedge angle and more higher than hard wedge filters. Dynamic wedging probided more consistent gradients across the field compared with hard wedge filters. Dynamic wedging has practical and dosimetric advantages over hard filters for rapid setup and keeping from table collisions. Dynamic wedge filters are positive replacement for hard filters and introduction of dynamic conformal radiotherapy and intensity modulation radiotherapy in a future.

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Carbon Fiber as Material for Radiation Fixation on Device : A comparative study with acrylic (고정기구 재질로써 탄소 섬유와 아크릴의 방사선량 감쇄 영향 비교)

  • Chie, Eui-Kyu;Park, Jang-Pil;Huh, Soon-Nyung;Hong, Se-Mie;Park, Suk-Won;Kim, In-Ah;Wu, Hong-Gyun;Kim, Jae-Sung;Kang, Wee-Saing;Kim, Il-Han;Ha, Sung-Whan;Park, Charn-Il
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2005
  • Radiation absorption parameters of carbon fiber panel were measured in comparison to acrylic panel. $30{\times}30cm$ sized 2mm thick carbon fiber panel and identical sized 6mm thick acrylic panel were placed in tray holder position and 0cm, 5cm, 10cm from surface of phantom. Radiation field size was $10{\times}10cm$. 50MU of 4MV photon was irradiated to the phantom with dose rate of 300MU/min. Source-to-phantom distance was 120cm. Radiation dose was measured with 0.6cc Farmer-type ionization chamber with 1cm build-up. Measurement was repeated thrice and normalization was done to the dose of the open field. Radiation transmission rate of carbon fiber panel is approximately 1% lower than acrylic panel of equivalent thickness. However, considering the strength of the material, transmission rate is higher for carbon fiber panel. Although carbon fiber panel increases the radiation dose when attached to the surface for about 2%, it normalizes the radiation dose to 97-99% of irradiated dose which could have been lowered to as much as 5-7.5% with acrylic panel. As carbon fiber panel is stronger than acrylic panel, radiation fixation device could be made thinner and thus lighter and furthermore, with increased radiation transmission. This in turn makes carbon fiber more ideal material for radiation fixation device over conventionally used acrylic.

Comparative Study on the Ability of Instruments to Maintain Original Canal Curvature of Continuous rotary System and Single File System (Continuous rotary system과 single file system의 만곡 근관 형태 유지능에 대한 비교 연구)

  • Park, Sang-Hee;Kim, Deok-Joong;Song, Yong-Beom;Lee, Hye-Yun;Kim, Hyoung-Sun;Lee, Kwang-Won;Yu, Mi-Kyung
    • Journal of Dental Rehabilitation and Applied Science
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.371-383
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    • 2012
  • Shaping the root canal system to maintain original canal curvature is essential to clinical success in endodontic treatment. Opposed to most root canals that are curved, endodontic instruments are made from straight metal blanks. They have a tendency of straightening the root canal during preparation and frequently result in procedural errors. A new treatment method to maintain original canal curvature during shaping has been introduced for preventing procedural errors. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of instruments to maintain original canal curvature of continuous rotary system and single file system. Thirty ISO 15, 0.02 taper, Endo Training Blocks(Dentsplay Maillefer) were used. Specimens were assigned to 1 of 3 groups for shaping: specimens in group 1 were shaped with ProFile #20/.06 at the WL. Specimens in group 2 were shaped with Mtwo #35/.04 at the WL. Specimens in group 3 were shaped with WaveOne Primary reciprocating files at the WL after the glide path was achieved with PathFile. Pre- and postinstrumentation digital images were superimposed and processed with Matlab r2010b(The MathWorks Inc, Natick, MA) software to analyze the curvature-radius ratio(CRr), representing canal curvature modification. Data for comparison on the ability of instruments to maintain original canal curvature depending on each Ni-Ti file were analyzed with 1-way ANOVA(P<.05). Data for comparison on the ability of instruments to maintain original canal curvature depending on each Ni-Ti file system were analyzed with independent t-test(P<.05). A statistically significant difference(P<0.05) was noted on each Ni-Ti file. ProFile and WaveOne instrumentations maintained the original canal curvature significantly better(P<0.05) than Mtwo file. There were no significant difference(P>0.05) between continuous rotary system and single file system. Under the conditions of this study, ProFile and WaveOne instruments maintained the original curvature significantly better than Mtwo file and were less modification of the canal curvature compared. There was no significant difference between continuous rotary system and single file system in shaping of simulated canals. As clinical practitioners, it may be advantages to use hybrid approach when root canal shapes depending on the design and usage of Ni-Ti files.