• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.31 no.6
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• pp.677-692
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• 2018

The total fertility rate of Korea was 1.05 in 2017, showing a return to the 1.08 level in the year 2005. 1.05 is a very low fertility level that is far from replacement level fertility or safety zone 1.5. The number may indicate a low fertility trap. It is therefore important to predict fertility than at any other time. In the meantime, we have predicted the age-specific fertility rate and total fertility rate by various statistical methods. When the data trend is disconnected or fluctuating, it applied a nonparametric method applying the smoothness and weight. In addition, the Bayesian method of using the pre-distribution of fertility rates in advanced countries with reference to the three-stage transition phenomenon have been applied. This paper examines which method is reasonable in terms of precision and feasibility by applying estimation, forecasting, and comparing the results of the recent variability of the Korean fertility rate with parametric, non-parametric and Bayesian methods. The results of the analysis showed that the total fertility rate was in the order of KOSTAT's total fertility rate, Bayesian, parametric and non-parametric method outcomes. Given the level of TFR 1.05 in 2017, the predicted total fertility rate derived from the parametric and nonparametric models is most reasonable. In addition, if a fertility rate data is highly complete and a quality is good, the parametric model approach is superior to other methods in terms of parameter estimation, calculation efficiency and goodness-of-fit.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.100-109
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• 2019

Maintainability indicates the extent to which maintenance can be done easily and quickly. The consideration of maintainability is crucial to reduce the operation and support costs of weapon systems, but if the maintainability is evaluated after the prototype production is done and necessitates design changes, it may increase the cost and delay the schedule. The evaluation should verify whether maintenance work can be performed, and support the designers in developing a design to improve maintainability. In previous studies, the maintainability index was calculated using the graph theory at the early design phase, but evaluation accuracy appeared to be limited. Analyzing the methods of evaluating the maintainability using fuzzy logic and 3D modeling indicate that the design of a system with good maintainability should be done in an integrated manner during the whole system life cycle. This paper proposes a method to evaluate maintainability using SysML-based modeling and simulation technique and fuzzy logic. The physical design structure with maintainability attributes was modeled using SysML 'bdd' diagram, and the maintainability was represented by an AHP matrix for maintainability attributes. We then calculated the maintainability using AHP-based weighting calculation and fuzzy logic through the use of SysML 'par' diagram that incorporated MATLAB. The proposed maintainability model can be managed efficiently and consistently, and the state of system design and maintainability can be analyzed quantitatively, thereby improving design by early identifying the items with low maintainability.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.155-170
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• 2018

Predicting a company's financial bankruptcy is traditionally one of the most crucial forecasting problems in business analytics. In previous studies, prediction models have been proposed by applying or combining statistical and machine learning-based techniques. In this paper, we propose a novel intelligent prediction model based on the simulated annealing which is one of the well-known optimization techniques. The simulated annealing is known to have comparable optimization performance to the genetic algorithms. Nevertheless, since there has been little research on the prediction and classification of business decision-making problems using the simulated annealing, it is meaningful to confirm the usefulness of the proposed model in business analytics. In this study, we use the combined model of simulated annealing and machine learning to select the input features of the bankruptcy prediction model. Typical types of combining optimization and machine learning techniques are feature selection, feature weighting, and instance selection. This study proposes a combining model for feature selection, which has been studied the most. In order to confirm the superiority of the proposed model in this study, we apply the real-world financial data of the Korean companies and analyze the results. The results show that the predictive accuracy of the proposed model is better than that of the naïve model. Notably, the performance is significantly improved as compared with the traditional decision tree, random forests, artificial neural network, SVM, and logistic regression analysis.

• Journal of Convergence for Information Technology
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.140-146
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• 2021

As the environment using intelligent IoT devices increases, various studies are underway to ensure the integrity of information sent and received from intelligent IoT devices. However, all IoT information generated in heterogeneous environments is not fully provided with reliable protocols and services. In this paper, we propose an intelligent-based multi-blockchain model that can extract only critical information among various information processed by intelligent IoT devices. In the proposed model, blockchain is used to ensure the integrity of IoT information sent and received from IoT devices. The proposed model uses the correlation index of the collected information to trust a large number of IoT information to extract only the information with a high correlation index and bind it with blockchain. This is because the collected information can be extended to the n-tier structure as well as guaranteed reliability. Furthermore, since the proposed model can give weight information to the collection information based on blockchain, similar information can be selected (or bound) according to priority. The proposed model is able to extend the collection information to the n-layer structure while maintaining the data processing cost processed in real time regardless of the number of IoT devices.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.47-62
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• 2022

Wind power has been rapidly growing over last decade in the world as well as in South Korea as a feasible renewable energy source. Providing sustainable energy to all while securing environmental sustainability requires evidence based policy making and innovative solutions. Through analysis of 58 cases of South Korean Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) Report, this paper seeks to identify answers to the following two questions. What are the key characteristics for inland windfarm? Is there a way of measuring environmental sustainability to compare each location to reduce negative environmental impact? Variables related to environmental sustainability of each windfarm case were collected from EIA report and the factor analysis of environmental variables was conducted to calculate the weight for each variable to build environmental sustainability index (ESI) to provide as evidence-based tools for decision making on the location of inland windfarm. 58 cases were categorized as three types 1) Mountain type 2) Ranch Type and 3) Coastal Type depending on their height and degree of naturalness. For analytical research, first, it was successfully calculated environmental sustainability of each windfarm case ranging from 1.04 (#33, Ranch type) to -1.44 (#55, Mountain type). Second, the analysis results showed that ranch type is most environmentally sustainable (Average ESI = 0.4551), followed by coastal type (Ave ESI = 0.3712) and lastly mountain type (Average ESI = -0.3457). These findings are consistent with the previous researches on inland windfarms and provides substantive policy implication on the renewable energy policies.

• Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.817-827
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• 2022

The real-name safety management system is to indicate "safety" after inspection by construction personnel before workers use it for the purpose of preventing safety accidents caused by unsafe conditions in temporary facilities and temporary constructions installed at construction sites. Purpose: By implementing the real-name system for safety management at construction sites, the objective is to respond to the "Severe Accident Punishment Act" and to improve the level of safety management at the same time. Method: In this study, a hierarchical analysis model was produced through previous studies of actual conditions such as types of safety incidents and causality at construction sites. The AHP model was used to calculate integrated weights and rankings with a pairwise comparison questionnaire for experts. Conclusion: As a result of the analysis of the upper classes, construction machinery was evaluated the highest, and real-name management system was evaluated the lowest. As a result of the lower-level analysis, it was considered that opening doors for safety facility management, tower cranes for construction equipment, management under the "Occupational Safety and Health Act" under the real-name management system, and CEO duties for safety management organizations were the most important.

• Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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• v.35 no.6
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• pp.367-374
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• 2022

This papter presents the use of the automatic differential method based on the backpropagation method to obtain the design sensitivity and its application to topology optimization considering the stress constraints. Solving topology optimization problems with stress constraints is difficult owing to singularities, the local nature of stress constraints, and nonlinearity with respect to design variables. To solve the singularity problem, the stress relaxation technique is used, and p-norm for stress constraints is applied instead of local stresses for global stress measures. To overcome the nonlinearity of the design variables in stress constraint problems, it is important to analytically obtain the exact design sensitivity. In conventional topology optimization, design sensitivity is obtained efficiently and accurately using the adjoint variable method; however, obtaining the design sensitivity analytically and additionally solving the adjoint equation is difficult. To address this problem, the design sensitivity is obtained using a backpropagation technique that is used to determine optimal weights and biases in the artificial neural network, and it is applied to the topology optimization with the stress constraints. The backpropagation technique is used in automatic differentiation and can simplify the calculation of the design sensitivity for the objectives or constraint functions without complicated analytical derivations. In addition, the backpropagation process is more computationally efficient than solving adjoint equations in sensitivity calculations.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.31 no.4
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• pp.645-668
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• 2022

Hydrogen energy is emerging as an important means of carbon neutrality in the various sectors including power, transportation, storage, and industrial processes. Fuel cell power plants are the fastest spreading in the hydrogen ecosystem and are one of the key power sources among means of implementing carbon neutrality in 2050. However, high volatility in system marginal price (SMP) and renewable energy certificate (REC) prices, which affect the profits of fuel cell power plants, delay the investment timing and deployment. This study applied the real option methodology to analyze how the dual uncertainties in both SMP and REC prices affect the investment trigger price level in the irreversible investment decision of fuel cell power plants. The analysis is summarized into the following three. First, under the current Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS), dual price uncertainties passed on to plant owners has significantly increased the investment trigger price relative to one under the deterministic price case. Second, reducing the volatility of REC price by half of the current level caused a significant drop in investment trigger prices and its investment trigger price is similar to one caused by offering one additional REC multiplier. Third, investment trigger price based on gray hydrogen and green hydrogen were analyzed along with the existing byproduct hydrogen-based fuel cells, and in the case of gray hydrogen, economic feasibility were narrowed significantly with green hydrogen when carbon costs were applied. The results of this study suggest that the current RPS system works as an obstacle to the deployment of fuel cell power plants, and policy that provides more stable revenue to plants is needed to build a more cost-effective and stable hydrogen ecosystem.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.192-207
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• 2023

Commercialization of level-4 (Lv.4) autonomous driving applications requires the definition of a safe road environment under which autonomous vehicles can operate safely. Thus, a risk assessment model is required to determine whether the operation of autonomous vehicles can provide safety to is sufficiently prepared for future real-life traffic problems. Although the risk factors of autonomous vehicles were selected and graded, the decision-making method was applied as qualitative data using a survey of experts in the field of autonomous driving due to the cause of the accident and difficulty in obtaining autonomous driving data. The fuzzy linguistic representation of decision-makers and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which converts uncertainty into quantitative figures, were implemented to compensate for the AHP shortcomings of the multi-standard decision-making technique. Through the process of deriving the weights of the upper and lower attributes, the road alignment, which is a physical infrastructure, was analyzed as the most important risk factor in the operation risk of autonomous vehicles. In addition, the operation risk of autonomous vehicles was derived through the example of the risk of operating autonomous vehicles for the 5 areas to be evaluated.

• 한국체육학회지인문사회과학편
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• v.55 no.6
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• pp.661-676
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• 2016

The purpose of this study is to draw a systematic access method of career intervention for dance majors. This study conducted Delphi survey and Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP). As a result of study, 16 elements of career intervention were produced in total 4 areas. Results show that vocational guidance puts emphasis on the understanding of the various vocations, career education on the career planning and goal, career counseling on the macro-narrative to the life and career intervention network on the dance job fair and workshop. In the complex weight of all factors, ratings of weight show that dance vocation guidance and career education are demanded significantly. Results show that expansion of career alternatives, application of diversified dance career development road map to the curriculum, development of test tool and outcome standard, dance educators' systematic career intervention education and systematization of network for career support were suggested as measures for dance career intervention. This study discussed about dynamic reality and systematic access method for dance majors based on theories of Holland(1997), Super(1990), and Savickas(2005).