• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.153-164
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• 2012

Since the sub-prime mortgage crisis from the US in 2008, Korean housing market has plummeted. However, Korean local lease contract, Chonsei, price has been increasing. This increase of Chonsei price can be a threat to the low-income people because most of them prefer to live at the house with a Chonsei contract. In order to solve this problem, the Korean Government implemented several Chonsei policies to secure low-incomers' residence by decreasing the price of Chonsei; however, due to the lack of understanding on housing and Chonsei market, Korean government policy seemed to fail on getting effective results. In the housing and Chonsei market, there are many stakeholders with their own interest, hence, simple thoughts about housing and Chonsei market, such as more house supply will decrease house price, would not work in a real complex housing market. In this research, we suggests system dynamics conceptual model which consists of causal-loop-diagrams for the Chonsei market as well as the housing market. In addition, we tries to explain why the policy did not work effectively using the examples from the government's past measures. In results, Chonsei price has its own homeostasis characteristic and different price movement with housing price in the short and long term period. Unless government does not have a structural causation mind in implementing policies in the real estate market, the government may not attain intended effectiveness on both markets.

• Survey Research
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• v.9 no.3
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• pp.1-21
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• 2008

The housing market in Korea had mainly consisted of Maemae(purchasing market) and Chonsei(rental market). Since 1997 foreign exchange crisis, the rental housing market has experienced substantial changes in preferred rental contracts between Chonsei and monthly-rent. Even though monthly-rent has taken a substantial portion of housing rental contracts, not yet reliable monthly-rent index has been developed. Furthermore, it isn't obvious to define monthly-rent because there are many types of monthly rent structures from full-monthly-rent to monthly-rent-with-variable-deposit. This study is the basic research of developing a housing price index of monthly-rent in accordance with the existing price index of Maemae and Chonsei in Korea. This research has been carried out with the following contents: (1) Constructing the actually desirable concept of monthly-rent through examining monthly-rental market in Korea. (2) Selecting the reasonable method to investigate monthly-rental market, especially monthly-rent-with-variable -deposit. (3) Designing monthly-rental market samples and calculating the price index of monthly-rent based on 2005 Census.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.518-527
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• 2016

The housing market is changing continuously according to the place and time and these changes have a ripple effect across various fields. On the other hand, the amount of housing that is consumed in the region also acts as a central cause of price movement. Moreover, the cause of variations in the housing market can be separated according to the characteristics of the housing consumer. In addition, the individual characteristics of the consumer varies according to the region. As a result, a study on the regional causal relationship of the housing market is underway. Although significant research has been done on the domestic home sales market, there has been limited research on the housing charter market. Therefore, in this paper, regional causal relationship of the housing market in the Gangnam and Gangbuk area in Seoul and Gyeonggi Province was analyzed using the vector error correction model, and is segmented by housing sale market and housing jeonse market. In addition, housing sale and housing jeonse of Gangam, Ganbuk and Gyeonggi province are defined as analysis variables, and time series data is the monthly material of June 2003 to November 2015. The results of the analysis, in the case of the housing sale market, showed that fluctuations in house prices in Gangnam area have a major influence on the fluctuations in house prices in the surrounding region. Similarly, in the case of the housing jeonse market, it was found that the jeonse price of Gangnam area has a significant impact on the jeonse price of housing in the surrounding area.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.13-20
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• 2010

Uncertainty in housing price fluctuation has great impact on the overall economy due to importance of housing market as both place of residence and investment target. Therefore, estimating housing market condition is a highly important task in terms of setting national policy. Primary indicator of the housing market is a ratio between rent and transaction price of housing. The research explores dynamic relationships between Rent-Transaction price ratio, housing transaction price and jeonse rental price, using Vector Autoregressive Model, in order to demonstrate significance of shifting rent-transaction price that is subject to changes in housing transaction and housing rental market. The research applied housing transaction price index and housing rental price index as an indicator to measure transaction and rental price of housing. The price index and data for price ratio was derived from statistical data of the Kookmin Bank. The time-series data contains monthly data ranging between January 1999 and November 2009; the data was log transformed to convert to level variable. The analysis result suggests that the rising ratio between rent-transaction price of housing should be interpreted as a precursor for rise of housing transaction price, rather than judging as a mere indicator of a current trend.

• Land and Housing Review
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.367-377
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• 2011

This paper investigates the determination factors' variation of real estate price after sub-prime financial crisis, in korea, using a VAR model. The model includes land price, housing price, housing rent (Jensei) price, which time period is from 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q and uses interest rate, real GDP, consumer price index, KOSPI, the number of housing construction, the amount of land sales and practices to impulse response and variance decomposition analysis. Data cover two sub-periods and divided by 2008:3Q that occurred the sub-prime crisis; one is a period of 2000:1Q to 2008:3Q, the other is based a period of 2000:1Q to 2011:2Q. As a result, Comparing sub-prime crisis before and after, land price come out that the influence of real GDP is expanding, but current interest rate's variation is weaken due to the stagnation of current economic status and housing construction market. Housing price is few influenced to interest rate and real GDP, but it is influenced its own variation or Jensei price's variation. According to the Jensei price's rapidly increasing in nowadays, housing price might be increasing a rising possibility. Jensei price is also weaken the influence of all economic index, housing price, comparing before sub-prime financial crisis and it is influenced its own variation the same housing price. As you know, real estate price is weakened market basic value factors such as, interest rate, real GDP, because it is influenced exogenous economic factors such as population structural changes. Economic participators, economic officials, consumer, construction supplyers need to access an accurate observation about current real estate market and economic status.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.16 no.9
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• pp.6315-6324
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• 2015

This study analyses the effects of household finances on rental price of apartment in Seoul which play a major role in real estate policy. We estimate VAR models using time series data. Economy variables such as sales price of apartment in Seoul, consumer price index, hiring rate, real GNI and loan amount of housing mortgage, which relate to household finances and influence the rental price of apartment, are used for estimation. The main findings are as follows. In the short term, the rental price of apartment is impacted by economy variables. Specifically, Relative contributions of variation in rental price of apartment through structural shock of economy variables are most influenced by their own. However, in the long term, household variables are more influential to the rental price of apartment. These results are expected to contribute to establish housing price stabilization policies through understanding the relationship between economy variables and rental price of apartment.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.197
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• pp.46-47
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• 2006

지난 9월은 판교 청약 열기와 함께 주택을 구입하려는 매매ㆍ전세 수요가 몰려 집값이 강세를 보였다. 택지지구에 분양하는 아파트의 고분양가 논란 등으로 주변의 집값도 함께 오를 것으로 보여 당분간 주택 가격은 강보합세를 유지할 것으로 예상된다.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.221
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• pp.60-63
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• 2008

강남권에서 전셋값이 크게 하락하고 있다. 주된 원인은 대규모 재건축 아파트 입주가 시작되면서 공급이 크게 증가했기 때문이다. 반면, 강북 지역 전셋값은 천정부지로 치솟고 있다. 전세난을 겪고 있는 서울 지역 전세 시장의 해결책은 무엇일까?

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.3-33
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• 2004

This paper investigates the effects of inflation on real estate prices, particularly the discrepancy between the sales and chonsei prices of housing, in an economy in which real interest rates are secularly declining due to the fall in capital productivity. When real interest rates fall, real estate prices rise relative to chonsei prices, and thus the well-known adverse effect of inflation, or the discrepancy between the value of financial assets (or chonsei principal) and the value of real assets (or real estate), is aggravated although the monetary authority maintains the same rate of inflation. This theoretical prediction can help explain the trend of the ratio of apartment sales prices to chonsei prices. That is, the stabilization of inflation relative to real interest rates appears to have contributed to the secular stabilization of this ratio in the 1990s, while the fall in real interest rates appears to have led to the rise of this ratio since 2001.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.202
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• pp.90-91
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• 2007

'1.11 대책' 이후 부동산 시장은 실수요자 위주로 빠르게 재편되면서 안정세를 보이고 있다. 하락을 주도한 재건축 아파트를 중심으로 매매, 전세 등 전체적인 부동산 가격은 약보합세를 띠었다. 2007년 2월 주택 시장을 돌아보았다.