• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.5
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• pp.905-914
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• 2017

We examine 554 state basic districts and 1832 householders in Busan metropolitan city to see whether the physical and walkable characteristics of housing influence apartment housing prices. We use two-level models modeling for a more accurate analysis. Walkable characteristics in level 2 state basic districts potentially explain 77% of the variation in housing values, with the highest impact on crime safety characteristics. Overall, our spatial multi-level analysis based on new state basic districts in Korea explained price variation better than previous studies, which considered each householder. The results provide policy opportunities for planners and citizen groups to pursue strategies that encourage the development of walkable and sustainable neighborhoods.

• The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.607-612
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• 2021

This study estimated the impact of the shock of housing price increase on the total fertility rate and the contribution of each variable to changes in the TFR. This study is differentiated by estimating the contribution rate of each variable to the fertility rate through the Shapley decomposition and the panel VAR's forecast error variance decomposition, which previous studies have not attempted. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the decline in the TFR in Korea has been strongly influenced by the recent decline in the total fertility rate, and this influence is expected to continue in the future. In the case of housing costs, in the past, housing sales prices had a relatively small contribution to changes in the total fertility rate compared to the jeonse prices, but their influence is expected to increase in the long term in the future. It has been demonstrated that private education expenses other than housing sale price and Jeonse price also acted as a major cause of the decline in the total fertility rate.

• Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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• v.52 no.2
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• pp.211-231
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• 2022

This study attempted to identify the effects of macroeconomic variables such as the All Industry Production Index, Consumer Price Index, CD Interest Rate, and KOSPI on apartment lease prices divided into nationwide, Seoul, metropolitan, and region, and to present a methodological prediction model of apartment lease prices by region using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). According to VAR analysis results, the nationwide apartment lease price index and consumer price index in Lag1 and 2 had a significant effect on the nationwide apartment lease price, and likewise, the Seoul apartment lease price index, the consumer price index, and the CD interest rate in Lag1 and 2 affect the apartment lease price in Seoul. In addition, it was confirmed that the wide-area apartment jeonse price index and the consumer price index had a significant effect on Lag1, and the local apartment jeonse price index and the consumer price index had a significant effect on Lag1. As a result of the establishment of the LSTM prediction model, the predictive power was the highest with RMSE 0.008, MAE 0.006, and R-Suared values of 0.999 for the local apartment lease price prediction model. In the future, it is expected that more meaningful results can be obtained by applying an advanced model based on deep learning, including major policy variables

• Journal of the Korean Regional Science Association
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.49-57
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• 2019

The young generation in life cycle that social position is rapidly changing is play an important role in a regional development because they can increase social and natural population in the region. This study analyzed the relationship between the movement of young generation and the regional characteristics including housing market characteristics in Seoul. As the results, the movement of young generation was influenced by commuting distance and location of jobs as the gravity model has suggested. In addition, housing supply and housing price (or Jeonse price) is an important factor for the movement of young generation. It can be inferred that the more price gap such as Jeonse price and housing supply gap are increased, the more out-migration of young generation in Seoul is increased. However, the housing demand of young generation in employment centers will be increased because jobs contribute to increasing the inflow of young people. Therefore, the policies of central and Seoul government that supply housing in job rich and high accessibility areas are needed for young generation. In addition, if public housing and affordable housing are supplied in the other areas, it can contribute to reduce the out-migration of young people in Seoul.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.168
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• pp.46-58
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• 2004

>>> 시장여건 분석 $\blacktriangleright$ 주택수급 상황 $\cdot$ 신규입주물량은 46만호로 올해보다 크게 감소하나 아파트입주물량은 32만호로 증가. 특히, 주거용 오피스텔 입주가 본격화되면서 전체적으로 공급과잉구조로 전환 $\cdot$ 가수요는 물론 실수요도 위축되면서 미분양 증가, 입주후 공가가 주요이슈로 대두 $\blacktriangleright$주택정책 여건 $\cdot$양도세,재산세 중과, 주택거래신고제, 종합부동산세 등 10.29종합대책의 후속조치가 본격화되고, 토지거래허가대상 확대 및 개발이익환수 등 2차 대책 시행가능성 상존 $\cdot$ 분양원가 공개, 후분양제 도입, 신행정수도 이전계획의 향방에 따른 불안요인도 내재 $\blacktriangleright$거시경제 전망 $\cdot$ 경기회복으로 금리가 상승세로 돌아설 경우 투자수요 위축 불가피 $\cdot$ 경제성장률이 $5\%$대로 개선되고 시중유동성도 풍부하나, 가계부실과 실업 증가로 수요증가효과는 제한적 >>> 향후 시장전망 $\cdot$ 저금리기조와 각종 개발호재에 따른 시장불안요인은 상존하나 정부의 강력한 투기억제 의지를 감안할 때 단기 조정 후 추가 하락하는 전형적인 경기후퇴국면에 진입할 전망 $\cdot$매매가격은 서울아파트가격이 크게 하락하면서 전국평균-$2\%$ 내외의 하락률을 보이고, 전세가격도 국지적 불안 가능성은 있으나 $-1\%$ 내외의 하향안정세가 이얼질 전망. 분양시장은 청약률 둔화와 미분양 증가의 침제양상이 이어지면서 주택건설실적도 각종 사업여건 악화로 50만호 안팎에 머물 것으로 예상. 지가상상률은 투기대책과 주택시장 위축으로 올해보다는 소폭 낮아지나 각종 개발 호재에 힘입어 개발예정지역을 중심으로 $3\%$ 내외의 높은 상승세가 지속될 전망

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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• v.12 no.3
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• pp.499-506
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• 2017

Consideration of influential factors through division of capital market sector and interest rate sector to find and resolve the problems in current housing market and leasing market will become an important index to prepare measures for stabilization of housing sales market and housing lease market. Furthermore, a guideline will be provide you with preliminary data using Big Data to prepare for sudden price fluctuation because expected economic crisis, stock market situation, and uncertain future financial crisis can be predicted which may help anticipate real estate price index such as housing sales price index and housing lease price index.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.116-124
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• 2016

In the past, once apartments were built by housing construction companies, their presale went smoothly. Therefore, the developer and construction companies in Korea were extremely competitive in the housing market. However, when the 1997 foreign exchange crisis and 2008 global financial crisis occurred, the quantity of unsold new housing stocks rapidly increased, which caused construction companies to experience a serious liquidity crisis. This paper aims at analyzing the influence of Liquidity on the Housing Market before and after Macroeconomic Fluctuations using VECM. The periods from September 2001 to September 2008 and from October 2008 to October 2015, which were before and after the Subprime financial crisis, were set as Models 1 and 2, respectively. The results are as follows. First, it is important to develop a long-term policy for the housing transaction market to improve household incomes. Second, due to the shortage in the supply of jeonse housing, structural changes in the housing market have appeared. Thus, it is necessary to seek political measures to minimize the impact of transitional changes on the market.

• Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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• 2008.11a
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• pp.441-455
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• 2008

본 논문은 단기 및 장기간에 걸쳐 부동산시장의 동태적 자금흐름과 수익률 분석에 초점을 맞추고 있다. 본 논문에서는 부동산시장의 실증적 동태적 자금흐름과 수익률 분석은 VAR모형을 사용하였으며 다양한 금융 및 경제관련 변수들을 연구에 포함시키고 있다. 실증적 분석 결과에 따르면 우리나라에서도 기존의 미국 연구 사례에서와 같이 금융시장의 자금흐름을 통하여 부동산시장의 동태적 자금흐름을 예측할 수 없다는 점을 파악할 수 있다. 또한 Granger 인과성 검정 결과에 따르면 통화정책 및 증권시장 변수 모두 전국아파트 매매가격, 전국 단독주택 매매가격, 전국 전세아파트 매매가격 실질상승률 등의 부동산관련 변수에 통계적으로 유의한 영향이 크지 않음을 알 수 있다. 그러나 분산분해 결과에 따르면 전국아파트 및 전국전세아파트 매매가격 실질상승률에 대한 움직임에 코스피수익률의 영향력이 증대될 수 있음을 알 수 있다.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.35-43
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• 2012

This study aimed to seek a method capable of hedging a rising risk of housing rent price by introducing derivatives with the target of Korean housing rent markets. The research model used in this thesis progressed a research by applying a futures contract method with the target of the rent price of major apartments in Gangnam and Gangbuk Regions of Seoul. As an analysis result, the rent price of all complexes has risen during its analysis period, so it could be confirmed that the CRB future index was also risen according to this. Finally, it was confirmed that the rising risk of the rent price can be hedged through a purchase position of futures. But, as the difference between rent price variation and CRB future index variation occurs, it appeared that 100% of hedge is difficult. However, it is judged that if considering that a method capable of hedging the rising risk of the existing rent price was nonexistent, the hedge trading effect utilizing the CRB future index on the rent price will be meaningful.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.89-98
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• 2012

While the housing transaction price of Seoul tends to be stagnant or declining in line with the housing market recession since 2007, the jeonse price keeps continual increase. Such flow of jeonse price change has a serious influence on ordinary person's housing stability seriously. Therefore, it is very meaningful in terms of social policy to analyze the trend of recent jeonse price change. This study aims to have an empirical analysis of structural characteristics of the trend of recent jeonse price change. After the review of various previous studies, this study selected housing jeonse price index, non-sold house quantity, jeonse vs. transaction price rate, and housing construction performance as analytical variables, and employed monthly time series resources from January 2007 to April 2011. As a result, when the housing supply reduced, the potential quantity for jeonse market reduced that occurred unbalance of supply and demand in jeonse market. In turn, it caused the increase of jeonse price. And, in case of jeonse vs. transaction price rate change, the rate increased which means the increase of required rate of return of invested demand. As such, the increase of market risk degenerates the investment sentiment which caused the reduction of quantity for jeonse market as a submarket.