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http://dx.doi.org/10.22640/lxsiri.2022.52.2.211

A Study on the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on Apartment Rental Housing Prices by Region and the Establishment of Prediction Model  

Kim, Eun-Mi (Korea Housing Urban Guarantee Corporation)
Publication Information
Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX / v.52, no.2, 2022 , pp. 211-231 More about this Journal
Abstract
This study attempted to identify the effects of macroeconomic variables such as the All Industry Production Index, Consumer Price Index, CD Interest Rate, and KOSPI on apartment lease prices divided into nationwide, Seoul, metropolitan, and region, and to present a methodological prediction model of apartment lease prices by region using Long Short Term Memory (LSTM). According to VAR analysis results, the nationwide apartment lease price index and consumer price index in Lag1 and 2 had a significant effect on the nationwide apartment lease price, and likewise, the Seoul apartment lease price index, the consumer price index, and the CD interest rate in Lag1 and 2 affect the apartment lease price in Seoul. In addition, it was confirmed that the wide-area apartment jeonse price index and the consumer price index had a significant effect on Lag1, and the local apartment jeonse price index and the consumer price index had a significant effect on Lag1. As a result of the establishment of the LSTM prediction model, the predictive power was the highest with RMSE 0.008, MAE 0.006, and R-Suared values of 0.999 for the local apartment lease price prediction model. In the future, it is expected that more meaningful results can be obtained by applying an advanced model based on deep learning, including major policy variables
Keywords
LSTM; VAR; Apartment Jeonse Price; Consumer Price Index;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 3  (Citation Analysis)
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