• Proceedings of the Korea Contents Association Conference
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• 2013.05a
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• pp.125-126
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• 2013

본 연구는 부동산 시장을 지역별(서울 강남, 강북지역) 및 주택형태별(아파트, 단독주택, 연립주택)로 분류하여 주식시장 및 각 형태별 주택시장의 수익률 동조화현상을 비교분석하였다. 또한 각 자산 간의 수익률을 1998년도 외환위기와 2008년도 글로벌 금융위기를 전후로 비교하여 기간 간의 수익률 및 수익률 변동성 차이에 대해서 분석하였다. 구분된 시기별로 각 자산의 수익률은 첫째, 주택시장은 주식시장과는 동조현상이 없는 것으로 분석되었으며, 둘째, 지역별 및 주택형태별 시장은 서로 동조현상이 있으나 그 정도는 시기에 따라 차이가 있는 것으로 분석되었다.

• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.233-251
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• 2002

본 연구는 우리나라를 대상으로 장단기 스프레드와 신용스프레드가 경기변동에 대해 어떠한 예측력을 갖고 있는가를 살펴보았다. 이를 위해 1991년부터 2001년까지를 분석기간으로 하여 Probit 분석을 통해 금리스프레드와 경기변동과의 시차 및 불황확률을 추정하여 평가해 보았으며, 인과관계 검정을 시도해 보았다. 우선 금리스프레드와 경기변동에 대한 불황확률을 알아보기 위해서 Probit 모형을 이용하여 불황확률을 추정하였다. 그 결과 장단기 금리스프레드 중에서는 5년 만기 1종 국민주택채권수익률-콜금리(HCS)는 3개월, 5년 만기 1종 국민주택채권수익률-1년 만기 금융채수익률(HGS)은 7개월, 5년 만기 1종 국민주택채권수익률-1년 만기 통안증권수익률(HMS)은 9개월의 시차를 보이는 경우가 Pseudo $R^2$ 값이 가장 높게 나타났지만 불황확률을 토대로 경기 호황과 불황 국면을 비교해 본 결과 HMS는 Pseudo $R^2$의 값도 상대적으로 높았을 뿐만 아니라 매우 높은 경기변동 예측력을 보여주었다. HCS와 HGS의 경우에는 IMF 체제 전후의 불황기와 그 이후에 도래한 호황기는 예측력이 높게 나타났으나 1990년대 초반에는 제대로 불황확률을 예측하지 못하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 3년 만기 회사채수익률-5년 만기 국민주택채권수익률(CHS)와 3년 만기회사채수익률 -3년 만기 금융채수익률(CGS)로 나타낸 신용 스프레드에서는 유의적인 결과를 도출하지는 못하였다. 한편 인과관계에서도 HCS, HGS, HMS 등의 장단기 스프레드는 경기변동에 대하여 일방적 원인변수로 작용하는 것으로 나타나 선행결합관계를 보여주었으나 CHS, CGS 등의 신용스프레드는 경기변동과 어떠한 유의적인 결합관계도 보여주지 못하였다. 따라서 장단기 스프레드는 경기변동을 예측하는데 유용한 정보를 제공하지만 신용스프레드는 경기변동을 예측하는데 도움을 주지 못하는 것으로 나타났다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.12 no.11
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• pp.469-481
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• 2012

The demand for small-sized housing has been increasing due to the recession of real-estate price and the increase of small-sized households. Especially, the demand for affordable housing has been increasing since the style of housing and the location fits the lifestyle of small-sized household. In addition, many investors have been buying it because it has advertised as an investment property holding high-return ratio. However, an empirical analysis about the selling price and the return ratio has not been done yet. Therefore, the purpose of the research is having the empirical analysis based on the selling price and return ration by examining the affordable housing in Seoul. The urban-life housing more than 50 generations of the Seoul was irradiated for the analysis. And the linear regression analysis and PLS(Partial Least Square Regression) analysis was used for the empirical analysis. The result of analysis, based on the linear regression analysis, showed that factors including neighboring housing price and subway catchment area have a significant effect to the determinant factors of housing price. The analysis for return ratio showed neighboring housing price, subway catchment area and amenities affects the ratio. Especially, the fault of using small sample was covered by using the partial least square regression in this research.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.25-60
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• 2014

We examine whether the observed negative relations between stock returns and inflation and between housing returns and inflation can be explained by the inflation illusion hypothesis. We identify the mispricing component in asset prices (i.e., stock prices and housing prices) based on present value models, linear and loglinear models, and we then investigate whether inflation can explain the mispricing component using the data from three countries (the U.S., the U.K., and Korea). When we take into account the potential asymmetric effect of positive and negative inflation on the mispricing components in asset prices, which is an important implication of the inflation illusion hypothesis, we find little evidence for the inflation illusion hypothesis in that both positive and negative inflation rates do not have a negative effect on the mispricing components. Instead, we find that behavioral factors such as consumer sentiments contribute to the mispricing of asset prices.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.146-158
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• 2008

This paper examines the relationship between the real estate policies of Korean government and the stock market of Korea. It is the purpose of this paper whether the government policies are effective or not when the Korean government release new real estate policies outlining higher taxes and more housing supply as part of its plan to suppress speculation. This paper studies the properties of daily stock returns of the construction sector in Korea securities market when the government announcements of the real estate policies are released. On the demand side, multiple home owners and those purchasing property for speculative purposes are expected to be hit the hardest If the government policies are effective. The empirical results of this paper show that most of the cumulative abnormal returns(CARs) are statistically significant from the year 2002 to the year 2006 except the year 2004.

• 주택과사람들
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• s.210
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• pp.76-81
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• 2007

부동산 펀드에 투자자들의 관심이 집중되고 있다. 정부의 각종 세금 정책으로 부동산 실물 투자엔 찬바람이 불고 있는 반면, 펀드는 정기 예금 금리보다 훨씬 높은 수익률로 재미가 쏠쏠하기 때문. 투자자들의 관심을 증폭시키는 부동산 펀드를 집중 분석한다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.20 no.3
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• pp.245-253
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• 2020

If the conversion rate of jeonse price to monthly rent is the market interest rate or the landlord's expected return, then the conversion rate of jeonse price to monthly rent in the country should be the same. However, the conversion rate of jeonse price to monthly rent has always been higher than the market interest rate. This study identifies the supply cost components of rental housing as a risk premium in the presence of current housing prices, market interest rates, depreciation costs, holding taxes, and leases, and identifies the relationship between the current housing prices and each factor. Housing rent is expressed as the current price. This overcomes the shortcomings that implicitly assume fluctuations in housing prices or do not include current housing prices in the conversion rate of jeonse price to monthly rent. This study found that the conversion rate of jeonse price to monthly rent is the required rate of return or required rate of renter, not market interest rate, by expressing the supply cost of rental housing as a combination of components. This not only explained the fact that the conversion rate of jeonse price to monthly rent was always higher than the market interest rate, but also explained the regional differences. It also explained why the conversion rate of jeonse price to monthly rent varies by type of housing.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.59-67
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• 2007

The cost of low-income groups's housing expenses have been weighting since 2000. To solve this problem, governments encourage supplying rental apartments for them. House rental supplement is most common things to solve housing problem in an advanced country but there is neither earning rate nor assessment standards in our country. Therefore, studies on house rental supplement are required to develop this systems. Hence in this study, we try to suggest both proper house rental charge to encourage nongovernmental construction and house rental supplement, considerng ability to pay.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.62-71
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• 2009

The purpose of this study is to analyze of profitability accordance to the different sales timing in apartment housing development projects. The adapted research method about public apartment hosing development projects by a private construction company is concentrated on the middle and large scale housing. The methodology for analysis of profitability through the change of timing for sales is analysed. According to this methodology, the difference of profitability by different timing of first sales is compared and analyzed. The results of this study are as followed 1)The major factors to affect the profitability for apartment housing development project consist of the timing of sales, the method of payment and the rate of sales. 2) The case study was carried out and then the profitability is analyzed the profitability for the three of cases is got worse when the sale after construction especially on the time of construction progress rate 80% is carried out.

• Korean Business Review
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.25-34
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• 2006

This research executed research that analyze construction cost and profitability through construction example of direction and subcontracting construction based on common private construction less than 3 billion. The results of this research, is summarized as follows. (1) Analyzed profitability about construction gross and operating profit of direction and subcontracting construction. The construction gross profit rate is 15.2% direction construction, subcontracting construction was analyzed by 1.3% high by 16.5% subcontracting construction, and the operating profit rate is 9.4% direction construction, subcontracting construction was construed by 2.3% high by 11.7% subcontracting construction. (2) Analyzed profitability about operating profit before and after deduction of 4 insurance cost of direction construction. The direction construction operating profit rate is 9.4% before deduction of 4 insurance cost, after deduction was construed that is 7.3% and operating profit rate difference after and before deduction was construed that is 2.1%. Therefore, subcontracting construction (operating profit rate 11.7%) was analyzed that last operating profitability after 4 insurance cost deduction produces more 4.4% about direction construction.