• Title/Summary/Keyword: 주택금융

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System Dynamics Modeling of Korean Lease Contract Chonsei (시스템 다이내믹스 방법론을 활용한 국내전세 구조분석)

  • Park, MoonSeo;Moon, Myung-Gi;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Hwang, Sungjoo;Lee, Jeoung-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.153-164
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    • 2012
  • Since the sub-prime mortgage crisis from the US in 2008, Korean housing market has plummeted. However, Korean local lease contract, Chonsei, price has been increasing. This increase of Chonsei price can be a threat to the low-income people because most of them prefer to live at the house with a Chonsei contract. In order to solve this problem, the Korean Government implemented several Chonsei policies to secure low-incomers' residence by decreasing the price of Chonsei; however, due to the lack of understanding on housing and Chonsei market, Korean government policy seemed to fail on getting effective results. In the housing and Chonsei market, there are many stakeholders with their own interest, hence, simple thoughts about housing and Chonsei market, such as more house supply will decrease house price, would not work in a real complex housing market. In this research, we suggests system dynamics conceptual model which consists of causal-loop-diagrams for the Chonsei market as well as the housing market. In addition, we tries to explain why the policy did not work effectively using the examples from the government's past measures. In results, Chonsei price has its own homeostasis characteristic and different price movement with housing price in the short and long term period. Unless government does not have a structural causation mind in implementing policies in the real estate market, the government may not attain intended effectiveness on both markets.

An Empirical Study on the Risk Diversification Effect of REITs (리츠의 투자위험 분산화 효과에 대한 실증연구)

  • Cho, Kyu-Su;Lee, Sang-Hyo;Kim, Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.23-31
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    • 2013
  • Following the U.S sub-prime mortgage crisis and a slump in properties market, the probability is rising that housing investment would not yield high profit as it used to do until early 2000s. For this reason, the nature of properties market is undergoing a change from a source of lucrative investment to a source of a relatively low but stable profit, such as profit-oriented real estate. This trend is likely to promote REITs market, which is a leading product for indirect investment. Until now, the REITs market has been growing slowly compared to a general housing market or financial markets. However, as the importance of risk management based on portfolio theories increases, stable profit generation of REITs can be effective in risk management. This study conducts an empirical analysis on how investment risks can be diversified by including REITs-a source of relatively stable profit in the equity market-in investment portfolio. The analysis results showed that, similar to food and beverage stocks of highly defensive nature, REITs has a relatively weak correlation with KOSPI that reflects the overall market performance. It also showed very low standard deviation in case of minimum variance portfolio. This suggests that including REITs in investment portfolio can be as effective as including food and beverage stocks for risk diversification. Due to uncertainties, investment always accompanies risks, and balancing potential profits and risks is essential.

A Study on the Global Co-movement & Spillover Effect of Housing Price (주택가격의 글로벌 동조화와 파급경로에 관한 연구)

  • Chang, Young Gil
    • Korea Real Estate Review
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    • v.24 no.1
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    • pp.39-52
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    • 2014
  • This study examines the degree of global co-movement & spillover effect among the housing price of ten major countries of OECD including Korea, based on the 3 hypothesis. The data used in this study is quarterly house price index of OECD countries from 1975 to 2012. VAR model is used to analyze the co-movement, and Granger causality methodology is used for the analysis of Spillover Effect. It is found that entire period of study is that the global house prices showed the co-movement, but the coefficient was weak. Since 2008 global financial crisis, the co-movement increased significantly and the adjusted R-square of this model increased 78% compared to the entire period (1975-2012). In general, all hypotheses in this study were significant, and the common shock hypothesis were most significant. In case of Korea, the degree of co-movement was weak compared to the other countries and spillover effect was independent since 2008.

The Effect of Macroeconomic and Real Estate Policies on Seoul's Apartment Prices (거시경제와 부동산정책이 서울 아파트가격에 미치는 영향 연구)

  • Bae, Jong-Chan;Chung, Jae-Ho
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.41-59
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    • 2021
  • This study reviews theoretical considerations and past studies about real estate prices, macroeconomic variables, and real estate policies. Monthly data from January 2003 to June 2021 are used, and a VEC model, the most widely used multivariate time series analysis method, is employed for analysis. Through the model, the effects of macroeconomic variables and real estate regulatory policies on real estate prices in Seoul are analyzed. Findings are summarized as follows. First, macroeconomic variables such as money supply and interest rates do not have a significant impact on Seoul's apartment prices. Due to the high demand for housing and insufficient supply, there is a demand for buying a home regardless of macroeconomic booms or recessions. Second, tax and financial regulatory policies have an initial impact on the rise in apartment prices in Seoul, and their influence diminishes over time. Third, anti-speculation zones are expected to decrease apartment prices through the suppression of demand. However, these zones cause a rise in apartment prices. This could be understood as a lock-in effect due to the strengthening of capital gains tax. Fourth, the price ceiling did not decrease apartment prices. These findings propose that, in Seoul, where demand is high and supply is insufficient, the supply of high-quality and sufficient housing should be prioritized over various regulations such as tax regulations, financial regulations, anti-speculation zones, and price caps. Moreover, the findings provide an implication that city-specific real estate policies should be implemented for Seoul rather than regulation-oriented approaches in public policy.

A Study on the Residential Satisfaction of Single Youth Households Tenants (청년 1인가구 임차인의 주거만족도에 관한 연구: 부산·경남지역을 중심으로)

  • Kwon, Jeongpyo;Kang, Jeonggyu
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.65-79
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    • 2022
  • To suggest implications of future housing problems, this study investigates which characteristics affect the housing satisfaction of young single households. Using the survey data, we perform the multiple regression and decision tree models based on the SPSS Statistics 25.0. Our empirical results show several key features. First, housing characteristics and intention to continue single households had a positive (+) effect on housing satisfaction, in the order of natural, housing, physical characteristics, and intention to continue single households. Second, housing characteristics and intention to marry in the future had a positive (+) effect on housing satisfaction in the order of natural, housing, and physical characteristics. Third, housing characteristics and intention to increase household members in the future had a positive (+) effect on housing satisfaction, in the order of natural, housing, and physical characteristics satisfaction. Finally, the results of the decision tree model show that the natural characteristics were over 3.4, and housing satisfaction was the highest in the case of Jeonse. The results of this study provide three implications for policymakers. First, improving the residential environment of young single households is important. Second, providing customized housing for young single households could enhance the housing satisfaction of young people. Finally, housing provision needs to be carried out with suitable space for the lifestyle of young single households.

A Study on Urban Regeneration Business Model Utilizing Idle Facilities in Old Town - Focusing on the City Center Revitalization Projects Using Empty Houses and Empty Stores in Japan - (원도심 내 유휴시설을 활용한 도시재생사업 모델에 관한 연구 - 일본의 빈집과 빈 점포를 활용한 중심시가지활성화 사업을 중심으로 -)

  • Song, Ki-Baek
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to derive a model of urban regeneration business using idle facilities in the old city center. The scope of the study was set as empty houses and empty stores owned by private companies, and analyzed the 50 central city revitalization projects using idle facilities in 14 local cities in Japan. The results of this study are follows; First, as an urban regeneration strategy using idle facilities in the old town, it was a combination of other functions centering on commercial functions or introducing new functions required in the city center. Second, various financial supports have been provided to induce the utilization of idle facilities by the private sector, and different strategies have been implemented for businesses that need maintenance first. Third, based on the analysis results, it was possible to derive urban regeneration business model. Fourth, in order to operate smooth business, it is a need for an organization that is in charge of reviewing the consistency of upper-level planning and urban guiding functions such as urban revitalization plan, balance review of expenditure and revenues by cost subsidy and loan repayment, consultation among the business partners.

A Study on Factors Affecting the Supply of Apartments in Changwon City (창원시 아파트 공급량에 영향을 미치는 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Sung, Joo-Han
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.11 no.4
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    • pp.35-50
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to examine which factors are important in determining the amount of the apartment supply in Changwon City. Additionally, this study is to examine the changes in the determination of the amount of apartment supply in Changwon by dividing it into before and after 2016 as the city showed a large difference in apartment supply that caused structural changes during this time period. This study shows that the increase in the number of housing construction permits in Changwon before 2016 had a negative impact on the housing market as well as causing a decrease in the supply of apartments in Changwon after 2016. As a result of the shortsighted predictions on the housing market of Changwon from before 2016, it still affects the current housing market as of June 2020. The implication of this study is that through the housing market system of Changwon City, they can take the role as a control tower in Changwon City and propose principles and standards for supply control in order to better predict the demand of the housing market.

Determinants of Re-Subscription Period of Early Termination Subscribers of Reverse Mortgage (주택연금 중도해지자의 재가입 소요기간 결정요인 분석)

  • Ryou, Ki Yun;Choi, Yeol
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.42 no.6
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to analyze the factors affecting the re-subscription period upon initial termination of the reverse mortgage subscription. The study utilized the Korea Housing Finance Corporation's database to extract the information regarding re-subscribers of the reverse mortgage from July 2007 to June 2021. The ordered logit model was employed and found that a set of user (subscriber) characteristics are influential towards the re-subscription period. Among the individual characteristics, changes in age group, marital status from married to single-living, maintaining single-living, and the initial subscription period were found statistically significant, highlighting that the increase in the initial subscription period decreased the re-subscription period. Among the housing (home equity) characteristics, changes in housing price and ownership type (single and partial ownership) were statistically significant, indicating that the change in ownership type decreases the re-subscription period. Lastly, the variables related to loan terms were found significant, revealing that changes in payout method and schedule were both increasing factors of the re-subscription period. Based on the findings, necessary policy implications can be considered to secure the returning subscribers of the reverse mortgage effectively.

Analysis of Perception on Happy Housing Using Blog Mining Technique (블로그 마이닝을 활용한 행복주택의 인식 분석)

  • Hwang, Ji Hyoun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.211-223
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    • 2022
  • This study aims to verify the possibility of using the blog mining to collect public opinion in the field of housing policy, thus, it collected blog posts with the keyword 'Happy Housing', extracted the main keywords from them, and analyzed the public's perception through keyword and word cluster analysis. 137,002 blog posts were used as analysis data from May 2013, when social discussion about happy housing spread, to August 2021, and the words derived by dividing the period into three stages in consideration of major housing policies and data collection were analyzed. The results are as follows. In the keyword analysis, overall, the importance of words related to the location, the number, the size, and the conditions for occupancy of Happy Housing is high. In the first stage, government policy implementation, in the second stage, the application process for Happy Housing, and in the third stage, recruitment notices, occupancy qualifications, and rental conditions are found to be highly important. In cluster analysis, project progress, application process, and project area were drawn as main themes at all stages. In particular, policy implementation and implementation plan in the first stage, occupancy qualification and financial support in the second stage, and policy implementation and occupancy qualification in the third stage were drawn as main themes. These results present the possibility of the blog mining as a method of collecting public opinion by sharing policy-related information, reflecting social issues, evaluating whether policies are delivered, and inferring the public's participation in policies.

The Economic Effects of Tax Incentives for Housing Owners: An Overview and Policy Implications (주택소유자(住宅所有者)에 대한 조세감면(租稅減免)의 경제적(經濟的) 효과(效果) : 기존연구(旣存硏究)의 개관(槪觀) 및 정책시사점(政策示唆點))

  • Kim, Myong-sook
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.135-149
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    • 1990
  • Housing owners in Korea have a variety of tax advantages such as income tax exemption for the imputed rent of owner-occupied housing, exemption from the capital gains tax and deduction of the estate tax for one-house households. These tax reliefs for housing owners not only conflict with the principle of horizontal and vertical equity, but also lead to resource misallocation by distorting the housing market, and thus bring about regressive distribution effects. Particularly in the case of Korea with its imperfect capital market, these measures exacerbate the inter-class inequality of housing ownership as well as inequalities in wealth, by causing the affluent to demand needlessly large housing, while the poor and young experience difficulties in purchasing residential properties. Therefore, the Korean tax system must be altered as follows in order to disadvantage owner-occupiers, especially those owners of luxury housing. These alterations will promote housing-ownership, tax burden equity, efficiency of resource allocation, as well as the desirable distribution of income. First, income tax deductions for the rent payments of tenants are recommended. Ideally, the way of recovering the fiscal equivalence between the owner-occupiers and tenants is to levy an income tax on the former's imputed rents, and if necessary to give them tax credits. This, however, would be very difficult from a practical viewpoint, because the general public may perceive the concept of "imputed rent" as cumbersome. Computing the imputed rent also entails administrative costs, rendering quite reasonable, the continued exemption of imputed rent from taxation with the simultaneous deduction in the income tax for tenants. This would further enhance the administrative efficiency of income tax collection by easing assessment of the landlord's income. Second, a capital gains tax should be levied on the one-house household, except with the postponement of payments in the case that the seller purchases higher priced property. Exemption of the capital gains tax for the one-house household favors those who have more expensive housing, providing an incentive to the rich to hold even larger residences, and to the constructors to build more luxurious housing to meet the demand. So it is not desirable to sustain the current one-house household exemption while merely supplementing it with fastidious measures. Rather, the rule must be abolished completely with the concurrent reform of the deduction system and lowering of the tax rate, measures which the author believes will help optimize the capital gains tax incidence. Finally, discontinuation of the housing exemption for the heir is suggested. Consequent increases in the tax burden of the middle class could be mitigated by a reduction in the rate. This applies to the following specific exemptions as well, namely, for farm lands, meadows, woods, business fields-to foster horizontal equity, while denying speculation on land that leads to a loss in allocative efficiency. Moreover, imperfections in the Korean capital market have disallowed the provision of long term credit for housing seekers. Remedying these problems is essential to the promotion of greater housing ownership by the low and middle income classes. It is also certain that a government subsidy be focused on the poorest of the poor who cannot afford even to think of owning a housing.

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