• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.39-55
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• 2019

Recently banks and large financial institutions have introduced lots of Robo-Advisor products. Robo-Advisor is a Robot to produce the optimal asset allocation portfolio for investors by using the financial engineering algorithms without any human intervention. Since the first introduction in Wall Street in 2008, the market size has grown to 60 billion dollars and is expected to expand to 2,000 billion dollars by 2020. Since Robo-Advisor algorithms suggest asset allocation output to investors, mathematical or statistical asset allocation strategies are applied. Mean variance optimization model developed by Markowitz is the typical asset allocation model. The model is a simple but quite intuitive portfolio strategy. For example, assets are allocated in order to minimize the risk on the portfolio while maximizing the expected return on the portfolio using optimization techniques. Despite its theoretical background, both academics and practitioners find that the standard mean variance optimization portfolio is very sensitive to the expected returns calculated by past price data. Corner solutions are often found to be allocated only to a few assets. The Black-Litterman Optimization model overcomes these problems by choosing a neutral Capital Asset Pricing Model equilibrium point. Implied equilibrium returns of each asset are derived from equilibrium market portfolio through reverse optimization. The Black-Litterman model uses a Bayesian approach to combine the subjective views on the price forecast of one or more assets with implied equilibrium returns, resulting a new estimates of risk and expected returns. These new estimates can produce optimal portfolio by the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization algorithm. If the investor does not have any views on his asset classes, the Black-Litterman optimization model produce the same portfolio as the market portfolio. What if the subjective views are incorrect? A survey on reports of stocks performance recommended by securities analysts show very poor results. Therefore the incorrect views combined with implied equilibrium returns may produce very poor portfolio output to the Black-Litterman model users. This paper suggests an objective investor views model based on Support Vector Machines(SVM), which have showed good performance results in stock price forecasting. SVM is a discriminative classifier defined by a separating hyper plane. The linear, radial basis and polynomial kernel functions are used to learn the hyper planes. Input variables for the SVM are returns, standard deviations, Stochastics %K and price parity degree for each asset class. SVM output returns expected stock price movements and their probabilities, which are used as input variables in the intelligent views model. The stock price movements are categorized by three phases; down, neutral and up. The expected stock returns make P matrix and their probability results are used in Q matrix. Implied equilibrium returns vector is combined with the intelligent views matrix, resulting the Black-Litterman optimal portfolio. For comparisons, Markowitz mean-variance optimization model and risk parity model are used. The value weighted market portfolio and equal weighted market portfolio are used as benchmark indexes. We collect the 8 KOSPI 200 sector indexes from January 2008 to December 2018 including 132 monthly index values. Training period is from 2008 to 2015 and testing period is from 2016 to 2018. Our suggested intelligent view model combined with implied equilibrium returns produced the optimal Black-Litterman portfolio. The out of sample period portfolio showed better performance compared with the well-known Markowitz mean-variance optimization portfolio, risk parity portfolio and market portfolio. The total return from 3 year-period Black-Litterman portfolio records 6.4%, which is the highest value. The maximum draw down is -20.8%, which is also the lowest value. Sharpe Ratio shows the highest value, 0.17. It measures the return to risk ratio. Overall, our suggested view model shows the possibility of replacing subjective analysts's views with objective view model for practitioners to apply the Robo-Advisor asset allocation algorithms in the real trading fields.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.27 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 2021

As the global business environment changes, uncertainties in technology development and market needs increase, and competition among companies intensifies, interests and demands for R&D activities of individual companies are increasing. In order to cope with these environmental changes, R&D companies are strengthening R&D investment as one of the means to enhance the qualitative competitiveness of R&D while paying more attention to facility investment. As a result, facilities or R&D investment elements are inevitably a burden for R&D companies to bear future uncertainties. It is true that the management strategy of increasing investment in R&D as a means of enhancing R&D capability is highly uncertain in terms of corporate performance. In this study, the structural factors that influence the R&D capabilities of companies are explored in terms of technology management capabilities, R&D capabilities, and corporate classification attributes by utilizing data mining techniques, and the characteristics these individual factors present according to the level of R&D capabilities are analyzed. This study also showed cluster analysis and experimental results based on evidence data for all domestic R&D companies, and is expected to provide important implications for corporate management strategies to enhance R&D capabilities of individual companies. For each of the three viewpoints, detailed evaluation indexes were composed of 7, 2, and 4, respectively, to quantitatively measure individual levels in the corresponding area. In the case of technology management capability and R&D capability, the sub-item evaluation indexes that are being used by current domestic technology evaluation agencies were referenced, and the final detailed evaluation index was newly constructed in consideration of whether data could be obtained quantitatively. In the case of corporate classification attributes, the most basic corporate classification profile information is considered. In particular, in order to grasp the homogeneity of the R&D competency level, a comprehensive score for each company was given using detailed evaluation indicators of technology management capability and R&D capability, and the competency level was classified into five grades and compared with the cluster analysis results. In order to give the meaning according to the comparative evaluation between the analyzed cluster and the competency level grade, the clusters with high and low trends in R&D competency level were searched for each cluster. Afterwards, characteristics according to detailed evaluation indicators were analyzed in the cluster. Through this method of conducting research, two groups with high R&D competency and one with low level of R&D competency were analyzed, and the remaining two clusters were similar with almost high incidence. As a result, in this study, individual characteristics according to detailed evaluation indexes were analyzed for two clusters with high competency level and one cluster with low competency level. The implications of the results of this study are that the faster the replacement cycle of professional managers who can effectively respond to changes in technology and market demand, the more likely they will contribute to enhancing R&D capabilities. In the case of a private company, it is necessary to increase the intensity of input of R&D capabilities by enhancing the sense of belonging of R&D personnel to the company through conversion to a corporate company, and to provide the accuracy of responsibility and authority through the organization of the team unit. Since the number of technical commercialization achievements and technology certifications are occurring both in the case of contributing to capacity improvement and in case of not, it was confirmed that there is a limit in reviewing it as an important factor for enhancing R&D capacity from the perspective of management. Lastly, the experience of utility model filing was identified as a factor that has an important influence on R&D capability, and it was confirmed the need to provide motivation to encourage utility model filings in order to enhance R&D capability. As such, the results of this study are expected to provide important implications for corporate management strategies to enhance individual companies' R&D capabilities.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.45-68
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• 2022

The central and local governments of the Republic of Korea provided information necessary for disaster response through wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) in order to overcome the pandemic situation in which COVID-19 rapidly spreads. Among all channels for delivering disaster information, wireless emergency alert is the most efficient, and since it adopts the CBS(Cell Broadcast Service) method that broadcasts directly to the mobile phone, it has the advantage of being able to easily access disaster information through the mobile phone without the effort of searching. In this study, the characteristics of wireless emergency alerts sent to Seoul during the past year and one month (January 2020 to January 2021) were derived through various text mining methodologies, and various types of information contained in wireless emergency alerts were analyzed. In addition, it was confirmed through the population mobility by age in the districts of Seoul that what kind of influence it had on the movement behavior of people. After going through the process of classifying key words and information included in each character, text analysis was performed so that individual sent characters can be used as an analysis unit by applying a document cluster analysis technique based on the included words. The number of WEAs sent to the Seoul has grown dramatically since the spread of Covid-19. In January 2020, only 10 WEAs were sent to the Seoul, but the number of the WEAs increased 5 times in March, and 7.7 times over the previous months. Since the basic, regional local government were authorized to send wireless emergency alerts independently, the sending behavior of related to wireless emergency alerts are different for each local government. Although most of the basic local governments increased the transmission of WEAs as the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 increases, the trend of the increase in WEAs according to the increase in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 was different by region. By using structured econometric model, the effect of disaster information included in wireless emergency alerts on population mobility was measured by dividing it into baseline effect and accumulating effect. Six types of disaster information, including date, order, online URL, symptom, location, normative guidance, were identified in WEAs and analyzed through econometric modelling. It was confirmed that the types of information that significantly change population mobility by age are different. Population mobility of people in their 60s and 70s decreased when wireless emergency alerts included information related to date and order. As date and order information is appeared in WEAs when they intend to give information about Covid-19 confirmed cases, these results show that the population mobility of higher ages decreased as they reacted to the messages reporting of confirmed cases of Covid-19. Online information (URL) decreased the population mobility of in their 20s, and information related to symptoms reduced the population mobility of people in their 30s. On the other hand, it was confirmed that normative words that including the meaning of encouraging compliance with quarantine policies did not cause significant changes in the population mobility of all ages. This means that only meaningful information which is useful for disaster response should be included in the wireless emergency alerts. Repeated sending of wireless emergency alerts reduces the magnitude of the impact of disaster information on population mobility. It proves indirectly that under the prolonged pandemic, people started to feel tired of getting repetitive WEAs with similar content and started to react less. In order to effectively use WEAs for quarantine and overcoming disaster situations, it is necessary to reduce the fatigue of the people who receive WEA by sending them only in necessary situations, and to raise awareness of WEAs.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.344-390
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• 1977

The purpose of this paper was to schedule optimum cutting strategy which could maximize the total yield under certain restrictions on periodic timber removals and harvest areas from an industrial forest, based on a linear programming technique. Sensitivity of the regulation model to variations in restrictions has also been analyzed to get information on the changes of total yield in the planning period. The regulation procedure has been made on the experimental forest of the Agricultural College of Seoul National University. The forest is composed of 219 cutting units, and characterized by younger age group which is very common in Korea. The planning period is devided into 10 cutting periods of five years each, and cutting is permissible only on the stands of age groups 5-9. It is also assumed in the study that the subsequent forests are established immediately after cutting existing forests, non-stocked forest lands are planted in first cutting period, and established forests are fully stocked until next harvest. All feasible cutting regimes have been defined to each unit depending on their age groups. Total yield (Vi, k) of each regime expected in the planning period has been projected using stand yield tables and forest inventory data, and the regime which gives highest Vi, k has been selected as a optimum cutting regime. After calculating periodic yields and cutting areas, and total yield from the optimum regimes selected without any restrictions, the upper and lower limits of periodic yields(Vj-max, Vj-min) and those of periodic cutting areas (Aj-max, Aj-min) have been decided. The optimum regimes under such restrictions have been selected by linear programming. The results of the study may be summarized as follows:- 1. The fluctuations of periodic harvest yields and areas under cutting regimes selected without restrictions were very great, because of irregular composition of age classes and growing stocks of existing stands. About 68.8 percent of total yield is expected in period 10, while none of yield in periods 6 and 7. 2. After inspection of the above solution, restricted optimum cutting regimes were obtained under the restrictions of Amin=150 ha, Amax=400ha, $Vmin=5,000m^3$ and $Vmax=50,000m^3$, using LP regulation model. As a result, about $50,000m^3$ of stable harvest yield per period and a relatively balanced age group distribution is expected from period 5. In this case, the loss in total yield was about 29 percent of that of unrestricted regimes. 3. Thinning schedule could be easily treated by the model presented in the study, and the thinnings made it possible to select optimum regimes which might be effective for smoothing the wood flows, not to speak of increasing total yield in the planning period. 4. It was known that the stronger the restrictions becomes in the optimum solution the earlier the period comes in which balanced harvest yields and age group distribution can be formed. There was also a tendency in this particular case that the periodic yields were strongly affected by constraints, and the fluctuations of harvest areas depended upon the amount of periodic yields. 5. Because the total yield was decreased at the increasing rate with imposing stronger restrictions, the Joss would be very great where strict sustained yield and normal age group distribution are required in the earlier periods. 6. Total yield under the same restrictions in a period was increased by lowering the felling age and extending the range of cutting age groups. Therefore, it seemed to be advantageous for producing maximum timber yield to adopt wider range of cutting age groups with the lower limit at which the smallest utilization size of timber could be produced. 7. The LP regulation model presented in the study seemed to be useful in the Korean situation from the following point of view: (1) The model can provide forest managers with the solution of where, when, and how much to cut in order to best fulfill the owners objective. (2) Planning is visualized as a continuous process where new strateges are automatically evolved as changes in the forest environment are recognized. (3) The cost (measured as decrease in total yield) of imposing restrictions can be easily evaluated. (4) Thinning schedule can be treated without difficulty. (5) The model can be applied to irregular forests. (6) Traditional regulation methods can be rainforced by the model.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.12 no.1
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• pp.1-21
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• 1973

Some experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of the chemosterilant, hempa, on the biology of the rice weevil, Sitophilus oryzae L., and the transmission of the lethal factors in the progeny. One to three days old adult males were fed on the wheat grains treated with concentrations of 0.0625, 0.125, 0.25, and $0.5\%$ of hempa water solution. The effects of the treatment on the mortality, longevity, and the performance of oviposition were examined for the Pl generation, and the hatchability and mortality in the postembryonic development were also tested in the $F_1,\;F_2,\;BC_1,\;F_3,\;and\;BC_2$ generations to analyze the inheritance of the lethal factors. The results obtained were summarized as follows. (1) The average longevity of the treated males were ranged from 26.6 to 30.4 days, and indicated no statistical differences. (2) The mortality of the treated males were ranged between $3.3\%\;and\;13.3\%$ and showed no statistical significance. (3) The overall mean number of eggs laid by a female mated to a treated male with concentrations of 0.0625, 0.125, 0.26 and $0.5\%$ were 3.78, 4.05, 3.75 and 3.61 for the respective treatments, and they were not differ significantly from those of control which were 3.60 per female per 3 day period. The unmated female laid 1.91 in the same period, and significantly differ from those in other experimental groups. (4) The overall mean hatchability of the eggs laid by the females mated with males that had been treated with various concentrations of hempa were 86.82, 64.77, 53.47, 40.33 and $24.78\%$ for the respective concentrations of 0, 0.0625, 0.125, 0.25 and $0.5\%$. The hatchability decreased with the increasing concentrations. (5) The minimum hatchabilities were obtained from the eggs laid in the period of 10-12 days after treatment, then the hatchability increased showing some recovery. The recovery seemed to be very much delayed for the males which had been treated with the greater concentrations. Such a difference in hatchability might be related with the sensitivity of the developmental stages of the sperms, and broader spectrum in the stages and severer effects seemed to be associated with the increased concentrations. (6) The overall mean of larval mortality in the $F_l$ generation were 6.55, 17.89, 27.40, 35.42 and $52.17\%$ for the respective concentrations of 0,0.0625, 0.125,0.25 and $0.5\%$. And there was a tendency to increase in the mortality with the increase of concentrations. (7) The correlation coefficients between per cent sterile eggs and larval mortality for the experimental plots of 0.125, 0.25 and $0.5\%$ treatments showed r=+0.83 and +0.85, respectively, and it seemed to be close correlation between the lethal effects on the embryonic and post-embryonic developments. (8) Since the $SC_{50}$ of the sterile eggs was $0.133\%$ and $SC_{50}$ of the larval mortality was $0.565\%$, it was considered that tile lethal factors expressed more in the egg stages than the larval stages. (9) The ratio of female to male in the $F_l$ adults showed 100 : 125, 100 : 108 and 100 : 124 for the plots of 0.125, 0.25 and $0.5\%$ treatments, respectively. And it n·as considered that the sex ratio distortions might occur with the higher concentrations. (10) When the F, males originated 1.on the eggs had been laid by p, in the period of 16-18 days after treatment, were crossed to normal females $(BC_1)$ and made sib matings $(F_2)$, the per cent sterile eggs of the $BC_1$ generation were 13.88 and $33.04\%$ , and were 31.01 and $38.73\%$ for the $F_2$generation with the plots of 0.0625 and $0.125\%$ treatment, respectively. And these seemed to be a results of the $F_1$ individuals are carrying some chromosomal aberrations (11) The larval mortality was the highest in the $F_2$ plot and followed the female backcross plot, and the least in the male backcrosses. (12) The proportions of 1st and 2nd instar larvae among the larval development at tile 17th day after oviposition were 10.98, 27.26, 32.98 and $15.73\%$ in the normal female $\times$ normal male, $F_1$ female$\times$normal male, normal $female \;\times F_1$ male and $female \;\times F_1$ male plots, respectively. It was considered that the larval development might be delayed by the treatment in the 2nd generation. (13) Per cent larval mortality and sterile eggs were greater in the $F_2$ sib mating plots $(F_3)$ than both of $F_2$ backcrosses. Therefore, it seemed that some of the recessive lethal mutations might affect in the further generations. (14) The sterility, induced by the treatment of chemosterilant, hempa, was considered as the result of the dominant lethal mutations due to chromosomal aberrations such as translocation and/or deletion. The effects of these lethal factors seemed to be inherited tip to 3rd generation after treatment.

• Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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• v.14 no.5
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• pp.69-76
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• 2013

The incidence of globally infectious and pathogenic diseases such as H1N1 (swine flu) and Avian Influenza (AI) has recently increased. An infectious disease is a pathogen-caused disease, which can be passed from the infected person to the susceptible host. Pathogens of infectious diseases, which are bacillus, spirochaeta, rickettsia, virus, fungus, and parasite, etc., cause various symptoms such as respiratory disease, gastrointestinal disease, liver disease, and acute febrile illness. They can be spread through various means such as food, water, insect, breathing and contact with other persons. Recently, most countries around the world use a mathematical model to predict and prepare for the spread of infectious diseases. In a modern society, however, infectious diseases are spread in a fast and complicated manner because of rapid development of transportation (both ground and underground). Therefore, we do not have enough time to predict the fast spreading and complicated infectious diseases. Therefore, new system, which can prevent the spread of infectious diseases by predicting its pathway, needs to be developed. In this study, to solve this kind of problem, an integrated monitoring system, which can track and predict the pathway of infectious diseases for its realtime monitoring and control, is developed. This system is implemented based on the conventional mathematical model called by 'Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) Model.' The proposed model has characteristics that both inter- and intra-city modes of transportation to express interpersonal contact (i.e., migration flow) are considered. They include the means of transportation such as bus, train, car and airplane. Also, modified real data according to the geographical characteristics of Korea are employed to reflect realistic circumstances of possible disease spreading in Korea. We can predict where and when vaccination needs to be performed by parameters control in this model. The simulation includes several assumptions and scenarios. Using the data of Statistics Korea, five major cities, which are assumed to have the most population migration have been chosen; Seoul, Incheon (Incheon International Airport), Gangneung, Pyeongchang and Wonju. It was assumed that the cities were connected in one network, and infectious disease was spread through denoted transportation methods only. In terms of traffic volume, daily traffic volume was obtained from Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS). In addition, the population of each city was acquired from Statistics Korea. Moreover, data on H1N1 (swine flu) were provided by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and air transport statistics were obtained from Aeronautical Information Portal System. As mentioned above, daily traffic volume, population statistics, H1N1 (swine flu) and air transport statistics data have been adjusted in consideration of the current conditions in Korea and several realistic assumptions and scenarios. Three scenarios (occurrence of H1N1 in Incheon International Airport, not-vaccinated in all cities and vaccinated in Seoul and Pyeongchang respectively) were simulated, and the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach its peak and proportion of Infectious (I) were compared. According to the simulation, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days when vaccination was not considered. In terms of the proportion of I, Seoul was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Seoul, the number of days taken for the number of the infected to reach at its peak was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. When they were vaccinated in Pyeongchang, the number of days was the fastest in Seoul with 37 days and the slowest in Pyeongchang with 43 days. In terms of the proportion of I, Gangneung was the highest while Pyeongchang was the lowest. Based on the results above, it has been confirmed that H1N1, upon the first occurrence, is proportionally spread by the traffic volume in each city. Because the infection pathway is different by the traffic volume in each city, therefore, it is possible to come up with a preventive measurement against infectious disease by tracking and predicting its pathway through the analysis of traffic volume.

• Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.479-492
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• 1997

Background : Isoniazid(INH) and rifampicin(RFP) are potent antituberculous drugs which have made tuberculous disease become decreasing. In Korea, prescribed doses of INH and RFP have been different from those recommended by American Thoracic Society. In fact they were determined by clinical experience rather than by scientific basis. Even there has been. few reports about pharmacokintic parameters of INH and RFP in healthy Koreans. Method : Oral pharmacokinetics of INH were studied in 22 healthy native Koreans after administration of 300 mg and 400mg of INH to each same person successively at least 2 weeks apart. After an overnight fast, subjects received medication and blood samples were drawn at scheduled times over a 24-hour period. Urine collection was also done for 24 hours. Pharmacokinetics of RFP were studied in 20 subjects in a same fashion with 450mg and 600mg of RFP. Plasma and urinary concentrations of INH and RFP were determined by high-performance liquid chromatography(HPLC). Results : Time to reach peak serum concentration (Tmax) of INH was $1.05{\pm}0.34\;hrs$ at 300mg dose and $0.98{\pm}0.59\;hrs$ at 400mg dose. Half-life was $2.49{\pm}0.88\;hrs$ and $2.80{\pm}0.75\;hrs$, respectively. They were not different significantly(p > 0.05). Peak serum concentration(Cmax) after administration of 400mg of INH was $7.14{\pm}1.95mcg/mL$ which was significantly higher than Cmax ($4.37{\pm}1.28mcg/mL$) by 300mg of INH(p < 0.01). Total clearance(CLtot) of INH at 300mg dose was $26.76{\pm}11.80mL/hr$. At 400mg dose it was $21.09{\pm}8.31mL/hr$ which was significantly lower(p < 0.01) than by 300mg dose. While renal clearance(CLr) was not different among two groups, nonrenal clearance(CLnr) at 400mg dose ($18.18{\pm}8.36mL/hr$) was significantly lower than CLnr ($23.71{\pm}11.52mL/hr$) by 300mg dose(p < 0.01). Tmax of RFP was $1.11{\pm}0.41\;hrs$ at 450mg dose and $1.15{\pm}0.43\;hrs$ at 600mg dose. Half-life was $4.20{\pm}0.73\;hrs$ and $4.95{\pm}2.25\;hrs$, respectively. They were not different significantly(p > 0.05). Cmax after administration of 600mg of RFP was $13.61{\pm}3.43mcg/mL$ which was significantly higher than Cmax($10.12{\pm}2.25mcg/mL$) by 450mg of RFP(p < 0.01). CLtot of RFP at 450mg dose was $7.60{\pm}1.34mL/hr$. At 600mg dose it was $7.05{\pm}1.20mL/hr$ which was significantly lower(p < 0.05) than by 450mg dose. While CLr was not different among two groups, CLnr at 600 mg dose($5.36{\pm}1.20mL/hr$) was significantly lower than CLnr($6.19{\pm}1.56mL/hr$) by 450mg dose(p < 0.01). Conclusion : Considering Cmax and CLnr, 300mg, of INH and 450mg RFP might be sufficient doses for the treatment of tuberculosis in Koreans. But it remains to be clarified in the patients with tuberculosis.