• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.304-305
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• 2018

충돌확률은 선박 충돌, 좌초사고를 교통량 관측에 기초한 사고 발생건수와 수로의 지형적인 조건에 따른 기하확률로 정량화한 자료이다. 1970년대 Fujii와 Macduff의 연구를 시작으로 많은 연구기관에서 충돌확률을 제시하였지만, 우리나라 해역의 조건에 적합한 충돌, 좌초확률은 없는 실정이다. 이에 본 연구는 부산항 제5항로에서 등부표 접촉사고 발생건수를 바탕으로 진입항로, 직선항로, 변침항로를 구분하여 좌초발생확률($P_a$) 및 준사고(좌초)발생확률($P_c$)을 도출하였다. 사고 발생율이 높은 진입항로에서 좌초발생확률($P_a$) $2.26{\times}10^{-5}$, 준사고(좌초) 발생확률($P_c$) $2.30{\times}10^{-3}$으로 산출되어 타 항로보다 등부표 접촉사고 확률이 높은 것으로 분석되었다. 추후 각 해역별 충돌확률을 도출하여 선박 안전성 평가의 기준을 구하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of KOSOMES biannual meeting
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• 2008.05a
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• pp.49-54
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• 2008

충돌, 좌초, 화재 등 실질적인 해양사고는 조금씩 감소하고 있지만 기관고장, 타기고장 등 단순사고는 매년 증가하고 있으며, 우리나라는 구난업체의 영세성으로 대부분의 예인구난을 해경 경비정에서 수행하고 있으나 선박예인은 사고선박의 크기, 선박고장 또는 파손상태, 기상개황에 따라서 고도의 예인기술을 필요하고 예인 중 타선박과 충돌이나 좌초, 침몰 등이 발생할 확률이 높아, 사고시 이의 인한 인적, 물적, 환경적 피해에 대한 손해배상문제 등이 대두 될 수 있어, 예인구난에 대한 관련법령 및 제도를 재검토하여 해상 예인구난체제 개선방안을 제시하였다.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2019.11a
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• pp.266-266
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• 2019

Marine accidents are increasing year by year, and various accidents occur such as engine failure, collision, stranding, and fire. These marine accidents present a risk of large casualties. It is important to prevent accidents beforehand. In this study, we propose a modeling to predict the occurrence of marine accidents by applying the Markov Chain Process that can predict the future based on past data. Applying the proposed modeling, the probability of future marine accidents was calculated and compared with the actual frequency. Through this, a probabilistic model was proposed to prepare a prediction system for marine accidents, and it is expected to contribute to predicting various marine accidents.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.28 no.6
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• pp.481-489
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• 2004

Ship collisions and grounding continue to occur regardless of continuous efforts to prevent such accidents. With the increasing demand for safety at sea and for protection of the environment, it is of crucial importance to be able to reduce the probability of accidents, assess their consequences and ultimately minimize or prevent potential damages to the ships and the marine environment. Numerical simulations for actual collision problem are conducted with a special attention with respect to finite element size, fracture criteria and material properties, which require a careful consideration to improve the accuracy. A parametric analysis varying colliding speed, angle, design loading condition is conducted using nonlinear finite element analysis method for 46,00 dwt Product/chemical carrier. The relationship between the absorbed energy and indentation are derived quantitatively using the insights observed from this study, and a novel design concept for assessing the anti-collision performance are proposed.

• Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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• v.29 no.8 s.104
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• pp.661-666
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• 2005

Recent warnings indicate that there is a potential risk of massive earthquake. These earthquakes could produce large-scale tsunamis. Consideration of the effect of Tsunami to the moored ship is very important bemuse it brings the loss of life and vast property damage in a viewpoint of ship operations within a harbor. If a tsunami occurs, a ship in a harbor may begin drifting in case of ship entering and departing harbor, and breakage of mooring rope and drifting of moored ship are happened. And extremely serious accident, such as stranding and collision to a quay, might occur. On the other hand, since the tsunami consists of approximately component waves of several minutes, there is a possibility of resonance with the long period motion of mooring vessel. As the speed of Tsunami is much faster than tidal current in a harbor, a strong resisting force might act on the moored ships. In this paper, the numerical simulation procedure in the matter of ship motions due to the attack of large-scale tsunamis are investigated and the effects on the ship motions and mooring loads are evaluated by numerical simulation.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Navigation and Port Research Conference
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• 2022.06a
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• pp.313-314
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• 2022

The intelligent maritime traffic information service provides a service to prevent collisions and stranding of ships based on the location information of ships periodically collected from ship equipment such as LTE-Maritime transceivers and AIS installed on ships. provided in real time. However, the above service may reduce the reliability of ship location information because GPS location information for measuring the ship's location may be cut off during transmission through LTE-Maritime or AIS networks, or phenomena such as location jumps and delays may occur. This study aims to estimate reliable position information to some extent even in an abnormal section through ship position prediction based on the existing received position information using the Kalman filter, which is an optimal estimation filter based on probability.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.25 no.5
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• pp.527-534
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• 2019

Several types of mathematical analysis methods are used for port waterway risk assessment based on marine traffic volume. In Korea, a marine traffic congestion model that standardizes the size of the vessels passing through the port waterway is applied to evaluate the risk of the waterway. For example, when marine traffic congestion is high, risk situations such as collisions are likely to occur. However, a scientific review is required to determine if there is a correlation between high density of maritime traffic and a high risk of waterway incidents. In this study, IWRAP Mk2(IALA official recommendation evaluation model) and a marine traffic congestion model were used to analyze the correlation between port waterway risk and marine traffic congestion in the same area. As a result, the linear function of R2 was calculated as 0.943 and it was determined to be significant. The Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated as 0.971, indicating a strong positive correlation. It was confirmed that the port waterway risk and the marine traffic congestion have a strong correlation due to the influence of the common input variables of each model. It is expected that these results will be used in the development of advanced models for the prediction of port waterway risk assessment.