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http://dx.doi.org/10.7837/kosomes.2019.25.5.527

Analysis of Correlation between Marine Traffic Congestion and Waterway Risk based on IWRAP Mk2  

Lee, Euijong (Safe Tech Research)
Lee, Yun-sok (Department of Ship Operation, Korea Maritime and Ocean University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety / v.25, no.5, 2019 , pp. 527-534 More about this Journal
Abstract
Several types of mathematical analysis methods are used for port waterway risk assessment based on marine traffic volume. In Korea, a marine traffic congestion model that standardizes the size of the vessels passing through the port waterway is applied to evaluate the risk of the waterway. For example, when marine traffic congestion is high, risk situations such as collisions are likely to occur. However, a scientific review is required to determine if there is a correlation between high density of maritime traffic and a high risk of waterway incidents. In this study, IWRAP Mk2(IALA official recommendation evaluation model) and a marine traffic congestion model were used to analyze the correlation between port waterway risk and marine traffic congestion in the same area. As a result, the linear function of R2 was calculated as 0.943 and it was determined to be significant. The Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated as 0.971, indicating a strong positive correlation. It was confirmed that the port waterway risk and the marine traffic congestion have a strong correlation due to the influence of the common input variables of each model. It is expected that these results will be used in the development of advanced models for the prediction of port waterway risk assessment.
Keywords
IWRAP Mk2; Port waterway Risk; Marine Traffic Congestion; Risk assessment; Correlation;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 1  (Citation Analysis)
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