• Journal of Korean Port Research
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 1997

The conventional methods of container forecasting is done through regression methods based on GNP growth trends and by other forecasting methods proposed by several authors. However these efforts prove to be inadequate with visible weakness and a more reasonable approach need to be determined. The succeeding sections elaborate the methodology and approach adopted. The results are then compared through a case study involving the forecast figures derived by the Pusan Port Authority and the values obtained by MRCS model introduced in this paper.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.75-88
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• 2024

It would be advantageous to predict acreage and yield of crops in major grain-exporting countries, which would improve decisions on policy making and grain trade in Korea. A climate suitability model can be used to assess crop acreage and yield in a region where the availability of observation data is limited for the use of process-based crop models. The objective of this study was to determine the climate suitability index of wheat by province in Ukraine, which would allow for the spatial assessment of acreage and yield for the given crop. In the present study, the official data of wheat acreage and yield were collected from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The EarthStat data, which is a data product derived from satellite data and official crop reports, were also gathered for the comparison with the map of climate suitability index. The Fuzzy Union model was used to create the climate suitability maps under the historical climate conditions for the period from 1970 to 2000. These maps were compared against actual acreage and yield by province. It was found that the EarthStat data for acreage and yield of wheat differed from the corresponding official data in several provinces. On the other hand, the climate suitability index obtained using the Fuzzy Union model explained the variation in acreage and yield at a reasonable degree. For example, the correlation coefficient between the climate suitability index and yield was 0.647. Our results suggested that the climate suitability index could be used to indicate the spatial distribution of acreage and yield within a region of interest.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.42-51
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• 2020

This study was performed to support the 6th forest basic planning by Korea Forest Service as predicting the change of forestland area by the transition of land use type in the future over 35 years in South Korea. It is very important to analyze upcoming forestland area change for future forest planning because forestland plays a basic role to predict forest resources change for afforestation, production and management in the future. Therefore, the transitional interaction between land use types in future of South Korea was predicted in this study using econometrical models based on past trend data of land use type and related variables. The econometrical model based on maximum discounted profits theory for land use type determination was used to estimate total quantitative change by forestland, agricultural land and urban area at national scale using explanatory variables such as forestry value added, agricultural income and population during over 46 years. In result, it was analyzed that forestland area would decrease continuously at approximately 29,000 ha by 2027 while urban area increases in South Korea. However, it was predicted that the forestland area would be started to increase gradually at 170,000 ha by 2050 because urban area was reduced according to population decrement from 2032 in South Korea. We could find out that the increment of forestland would be attributed to social problems such as urban hollowing and localities extinction phenomenon by steep decrement of population from 2032. The decrement and increment of forestland by unbalanced population immigration to major cities and migration to localities might cause many social and economic problems against national sustainable development, so that future strategies and policies for forestland should be established considering such future change trends of land use type for balanced development and reasonable forestland use and conservation.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.5
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• pp.339-350
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• 2011

This study developed a climate informed Bayesian nonstationary frequency model which allows us to forecast seasonal summer rainfall at Nakdong River. We constructed a 37-year summer rainfall data set from 10 weather stations within Nakdong river basin, and two climate indices from sea surface temperature (SST) and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) were derived through correlation analysis. The selected SST and OLR have been widely acknowledged as a climate driver for summer rainfall. The developed model was applied first to the 2010-year summer rainfall (888.1 mm) in order to assure ourself. We demonstrated model performance by comparing posterior distributions. It was confirmed that the proposed model is able to produce a reasonable forecast. The forecasted value is about 858.2 mm, and the difference between forecast and observation is about 30 mm. As the second case study, 2011-year summer rainfall forecast was made using an observed winter SSTs and an assumed 50% value of OLRs. The forecasted value is 967.7 mm and associated exceedance probability over average summer rainfall 680 mm is 92.9%. In addition, 50-year return period for summer rainfall was projected through the nonstationary frequency model. An exceedance probability over 1,400 mm corresponding to the 50-year return level is about 73.7%.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.6 no.1
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• pp.37-49
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• 2021

The number of dementia patients in Korea is estimated to be over 800,000, and the severity of dementia is becoming a social problem. However, no treatment or drug has yet been developed to cure dementia worldwide. The number of dementia patients is expected to increase further due to the rapid aging of the population. Currently, early detection of dementia and delaying the course of dementia symptoms is the best alternative. This study presented a methodology for early diagnosis of dementia by measuring and analyzing amyloid plaques. This vital protein can most clearly and early diagnose dementia in the retina through AI-based image analysis. We performed binary classification and multi-classification learning based on CNN on retina data. We also developed a deep learning algorithm that can diagnose dementia early based on pre-processed retinal data. Accuracy and recall of the deep learning model were verified, and as a result of the verification, and derived results that satisfy both recall and accuracy. In the future, we plan to continue the study based on clinical data of actual dementia patients, and the results of this study are expected to solve the dementia problem.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.91-98
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• 2019

The research focused on plastic surgery clinics in Seoul, which recently responded to foreign patients who wanted to get plastic surgery, to recognize the need for the use of mobile healthcare applications to promote medical tourism and to see the expected effects in the future. For the analysis of data, SPSS 21.0 was used. Based on personal characteristics and medical institution characteristics, the future expected effects of using mobile healthcare applications were analyzed to find ways to help vitalize medical tourism. The result showed that the more mobile applications they wants to use in the future and the higher the number of foreign patients of the medical institutions, the more positive the expectation on the use of mobile healthcare application in the future. Also, the higher evaluation on the need for mobile healthcare application, the more helpful in vitalizing the medical tourism in the future, and the higher the positive awareness. I hope that this research will provide an IT foundation for the and expansion of mobile service app on demand analysis and service utilization of medical workers in order to promote medical tourism.

• Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.47-63
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• 2021

Variability is one of the major characteristics of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN), and it is used for understanding the energy generation mechanism in the center of AGN and/or related physical phenomena. It it known that there exists a time lag between AGN light curves simultaneously observed at different wavelengths, which can be used as a tool to estimate the size of the area that produce the radiation. In this paper, We present long term near-infrared variability of optically bright type 1 AGN using the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer data. From the Milliquas catalogue v6.4, 73 type 1 QSOs/AGN and 140 quasar candidates are selected that are brighter than 18 mag in optical and located within 5 degree around the ecliptic poles. Light curves in the W1 band (3.4 ㎛) and W2 band (4.6 ㎛) during the period of 2010-2019 were constructed for these objects by extracting multi-epoch photometry data from WISE and NEOWISE all sky survey database. Variability was analyzed based on the excess variance and the probability P_var. Applying both criteria, the numbers of variable objects are 19 (i.e., 26%) for confirmed AGN and 12 (i.e., 9%) for AGN candidates. The characteristic time scale of the variability (τ) and the variability amplitude (σ) were derived by fitting the DRW model to W1 and W2 light curves. No significant correlation is found between the W1/W2 magnitude and the derived variability parameters. Based on the subsample that are identified in the X-ray source catalog, there exists little correlation between the X-ray luminosity and the variability parameters. We also found four AGN with changing W1-W2 color.

• Proceedings of the Korean Professional Engineer Association Conference
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• 1995.12b
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• pp.30-48
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• 1995

서울시는 국가의 수도로서 이제 6n년의 역사를 맞이하였다. 뛰어난 산수와 자연 경관을 가진 서울시의 자연은 근세이후 도시의 발전에 따른 점차적으로 훼손되어 왔으며, 특히 1960년대 이후의 도시성장기에 시행된 개발 위주의 도시 정책은 공원 녹지의 잠식을 가속화시켜 본래의 자연은 양적, 질적 측면에 많은 피해가 발생되었다. 또한 도시 정책의 부분으로서 공원 녹지 정책은 개발 위주의 도시 정책에 밀려 제기능을 발휘 할 수 없었으며, 정책에 있어서도 목표와 미래 방향에 대한 뚜렷한 비전을 제시하지 못하였다. 현재 공원 녹지와 관련된 정책 환경을 볼 때, 각종의 도시개발 사업, 지방 자치제 시행에 따를 도시의 난 개발은 부족한 공원녹지를 더욱 잠식하는 위협요소가 되고 있으며, 토지수요에 대한 공급의 한계 상황에 직면해 있는 시점에서 개발론자 들은 공원 녹지를 개발의 주요대상으로 인식하는 자세를 견지하고 있다. 그러나 최근 들어 지구 환경의 문제의 대두, 환경에 대한 시민의 관심, 정책 집행자들의 환경 보전과 관리의 움직임이 나타나기 시작하고 있어 서울시의 공원 녹지의 미래 전망을 밝게 해주는 긍정적인 요소가 되고 있다. 2000년대를 바라본 현시점에서 도시의 기간 요소로서 공원 녹지는 단지 존재만의 가치가 아니라 적정한 기능을 부여하고 이용의 활성화를 통한 공원 녹지의 새로운 탄생이 요구되고 있다. 이것은 공원 녹지정책 측면에서 공원 녹지의 양적 측면에서의 풍요로움과 질적 측면에서의 기능성의 회복과 도시 구성적 측면에서의 공원 녹지의 네트워크의 구성이라는 3가지의 정책 이슈를 제기한다. 양적 측면에서 녹의 풍요로움을 확보하기 위해서는 기존의 공급 지표 위주의 정책보다는 공원 녹지의 총량적인 관리 체제를 통한 전 도시적 차원의 공원녹지 관리 시스템이 필요하며, 공원 녹지로서 잠재 가치를 가지고 있는 새로운 유형의 공원 녹지의 조성과 각종 개발사업에 대한 공원 녹지의 잠식 방지를 위한 명확한 사회적인 공감대의 형성이 요구된다. 질적 측면에서는 공원 녹지의 기능성의 회복이라는 측면과 시대에 부합되는 새로운 기능 및 가치의 부여가 필요하며, 이를 위해서는 공원의 매력, 공원의 시설기능 증진, 녹지의 질의 향상 및 녹지 가치의 증진에 대한 다양한 시책이 요구된다. 구성적 측면에서는 공원녹지의 개별적 존재보다는 공원 녹지를 상호간 유기적인 계통을 확보하여 공원 녹지의 네트워크를 형성하여 도시 속의 산재된 고립된 섬으로서의 공원 녹지가 아닌 시민생활에 늘 가까이 있는 생활 속의 공원녹지로 재편되어야 한다. 이러한 정책의 의제는 양적 측면에서 보전(CONSERVATION)과 창출(CREATION), 질적 측면에서 쇄신(RENOVATION)과 복구(RESTORATION), 그리고 구성적 측면에서 공원 녹지의 연결(CONNECTION)과 시민 참여에 의한 운동(MOVEMENT)이라는 정책 개념의 구현을 통해 가능하다. 이러한 정책 개념과 의제를 가지고 서울시 공원 녹지 정책을 구체화시키기 위해서 푸르름의 새로운 탄생이라는 기치 아래 풍요로운 서울, 사랑 받는 공원, 생활 속의 녹지의 3대 목표, 공원 녹지의 보전, 잠재 공원 녹지의 창출, 공원의 활성화, 녹지의 복구, 경관 보전 및 복구, 공원 녹지의 네트워크, 도시 녹화의 7대 과제를 설정하고 미시설 공원 녹지 집행, 개발 사업시 공원 녹지의 확보, 환경 녹지의 총량 보호 관리, 도시 소공원 개발, 역사 문화 공원 조성, 하천 공간 복원, 공원 시설 기능 개선, 이용 프로그램 개발, 공원 관리 개선, 환경 피해 녹지의 회복, 도시 환경 림 조성, 녹지 기능 증진, 도시 자연 경관 보전, 공원 녹지체계 구성, 공원 녹지 공급 균형, 주변 환경 녹화, 가로 녹화의 17개 시책을 제안하였다. 이러한 정책사업의 원활한 추진을 위해서는 기존의 관주도의 일방적인 공원 녹지 행정이 아닌 시민의 참여를 통한 시민이 함께 하는 정 책 사업의 추진이 요구되며, 특히 민간 부문의 적극적 인 참여를 유도하기 위한 방안이 동시 에 강구되어야 한다. 또한 공공에서는 정 책 집행을 위한 조직과 행정의 개편, 예산의 확보 방안을 적극적으로 검토해야 한다. 현재 서울시는 지방자치제 시행에 따라 시 행정에 있어 많은 변화가 예고되고 있으며, 공원 녹지는 새로운 환경 변화에 부합되는 적절한 도시요소가 될 것으로 추정된다. 서울시 하천 복개의 금지, 하천공간의 복원에 대한 움직임, 환경 녹지 복구를 위한 사업의 시행, 민간부문의 환경 운동의 활성화 등 바람직 한 현상이 전개되고 있어, 공원 녹지는 미래의 도시 관리 에 있어 주요 관심사가 될 것이다.

• Korean Security Journal
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• no.19
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• pp.1-21
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• 2009

Manpower demand forecasting in private security industry can be used for both policy and information function. At a time when police agencies have fewer resources to accomplish their goals, forming partnership with private security firms should be a viable means to choose. But without precise understanding of each other, their partnership could be superficial. At the same time, an important debate is coming out whether security industry will continue to expand in numbers of employees, or level-off in the near future. Such debates are especially important for young people considering careers in private security industry. Recently, ARIMA model has been widely used as a reliable instrument in the many field of industry for demand forecasting. An ARIMA model predicts a value in a response time series as a linear combination of its own past values, past errors, and current and past values of other time series. This study conducts a short-term forecast of manpower demand in private security industry using ARIMA model. After obtaining yearly data of private security officers from 1976 to 2008, this paper are forecasting future trends and proposing some policy orientations. The result shows that ARIMA(0, 2, 1) model is the most appropriate one and forecasts a minimum of 137,387 to maximum 190,124 private security officers will be needed in 2013. The conclusions discuss some implications and predictable changes in policing and coping strategies public police and private security can take.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.95 no.4
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• pp.405-414
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• 2006

Korea is expected to be included in the countries of compulsory reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from the 2nd commitment period (2013~2017). For the negotiations in the future, this study was designed to review the tendency of discussions about carbon account in harvested wood products (HWP), which is currently underway around the globe and approach-specific characteristics, and analyze effects on carbon emissions in our country. As a result, most importantly, except the current IPC default approach there is no big difference among the 3 approaches of carbon account in HWP, which were newly suggested on the basis importers because all the HWP circulated at home are accounted for by carbon-stock changes. Under production approach, those HWP produced at home only are evaluated according to carbon-stock changes with the exception of imported HWP. Atmospheric-flow approach is favorable to net wood exporters, because the spot where ultimate decomposition and combustion arising out of the use of HWP occur is regarded as the place of carbon emission. Meanwhile, the estimation of korean carbon-stock change in HWP showed that as of 2004, stock-change approach was 1.567 Tg C, with production approach being 0.581 Tg C and atmospheric-flow approach being -1.425 Tg C, which means stock-change approach is most favorable to Korea as a net wood importer, while atmospheric-flow approach is the least favorable one, in terms of carbon emissions reduction in Korea.