• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2020.06a
• /
• pp.153-153
• /
• 2020

우리나라에선 크고 작은 가뭄 피해가 자주 일어나고 있으며 최근엔 유래 없는 다년가뭄이 발생하면서 가뭄에 대한 경각심이 커지고 있다. 가뭄에 적절하게 대응하여 피해를 경감시키기 위해서는 신뢰도 높은 가뭄 예측이 선행되어야 한다. 이에 본 연구는 앙상블 예측과 베이즈이론(Bayes' theorem)을 수문학적 가뭄지수 중 하나인 SRI(Standardized Runoff Index)에 적용해 가뭄 확률 전망을 실시했으며 이를 EDP(Ensemble Drought Prediction)라고 칭하였다. 국내 8개 댐유역에서 EDP를 생성하고 개선하는 과정은 다음과 같이 진행된다. 우선 TANK모형을 활용한 1개월 선행 유량 예측(Ensemble Streamflow Prediction, ESP)의 결과를 SRI로 변환하여 EDP 확률분포를 생성한다. 그런 다음, EDP를 개선하기 위해 그 기초인 ESP에서 미흡한 토양수분 초기조건을 보완하고자 베이즈이론을 활용했다. APCC(APEC Climate Center)의 위성 관측 SMI(Soil Moisture Index) 자료로 SRI와의 회귀식을 구축, 이를 우도함수로 정의해 사전 EDP 분포를 업데이트한 EDP+ 확률분포를 생성했다. 그 결과, EDP와 EDP+ 모두 심도가 깊은 가뭄을 전망할수록 예측력이 기후학적 예측보다 좋지 않았다. 그럼에도 우도함수로 사용한 회귀식의 정확도가 높을수록 EDP+의 정확도도 향상되는 경향이 나타났으며, 이는 베이즈이론을 사용한다면 가뭄 확률 전망을 개선할 수 있다는 것을 의미하고 있다. 하지만, 확정 전망 정확도는 확률 전망 정확도와는 관계가 없었는데 이는 확정 전망과 확률 전망이 본질적으로 다르기 때문인 것으로 사료된다.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.35 no.1
• /
• pp.1-32
• /
• 2013

Economic sanctions and inducements are types of 'policy instruments' based on 'economic tools' to influence other international actors. Ongoing debates on sanctions and inducements have exposed drawbacks for relying on individual case studies. There are some studies in the literature that attempt theoretical analysis of sanctions and inducements, but they are mostly based on rational choice theory. In reality, however, there exist so many cases that cannot be explained by rational choice theory. These are called anomalies or exceptions. The literature introduces specific variables to interpret these anomalies and thus sacrifice the universality of the theory. From this point of view, prospect theory would present an effective tool to analyze economic sanctions and inducements. It is a behavioral economic theory that tries to model a decisions making process in reality. The theory says that people make decisions based on subjective value of losses and gains from an individual reference point, and that people evaluate these losses and gains using heuristics. Thus prospect theory could offer a different frame which has greater explanatory range without adding new variables. As a result of this study, target's losses of 'back down' towards economic sanctions loom larger when the reference point level increases, therefore, the effectiveness of sanctions decreases. However, target's losses of 'stand firm' towards economic inducements loom larger under the same condition of reference point, therefore, the effectiveness of inducements increases. The findings of the paper suggest meaningful implications to the economic policy towards North Korea.

• Journal of Korea Game Society
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.37-44
• /
• 2014

In this paper, we propose a NPC decision making model based on Prospect Theory which tries to model real-life choice, rather than optimal decision. For this purpose, we analyse the problems of reference point setting, diminishing sensitivity and loss aversion which are known as limitations of the utility theory and then apply these characteristics into the decision making in game. Dynamic Terrain Analysis is utilized to evaluate the proposed model and experimental result shows the method have effects on inducing diverse personality and emergent behavior on NPC.

• Journal of Digital Convergence
• /
• v.15 no.11
• /
• pp.107-112
• /
• 2017

This paper performed an experimental study to test the validity of the prospect theory proposed by Tversky and Kahneman as an alternative to the expected utility theory. 115 college students attended the hypothetical games to choose one of two lotteries, one is safe option while the other one is risky. The risky options were set up to have low, medium or high probability of payoffs or losses. The amount of payoffs and losses of the lotteries was either large or small. Maximum likelihood estimation of the hypothetical games have shown that in case of high probability of positive payoffs the respondents were risk averse and when the probability of positive payoffs were small the respondents were risk loving. when the possibility of loss is high they were risk loving, while the probability is of loss is low the respondents were found to be risk averse. When the probability of risky options were medium the results were significant statistically in case of only losses. The amount of positive payoff or losses does not affect the results. Overall the results of this experiments support the prospect theory more than those of Laury & Holts (2008).

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.18 no.10
• /
• pp.30-39
• /
• 2018

This study was conducted with the aim of presenting a strategic implication for effective political campaign in the election situation which is held almost every year including the early presidential election. For this purpose, the $2{\times}2{\times}2$ triad experiment design of framing, involvement, political efficacy. The result shows that the main effect of framing and political efficacy was found, but the main effect of involvement was not shown. And also a result of two-way ANOVA, the interaction between framing and involvement was significant, but the interaction effect between framing and political efficacy was not significant. In addition, the three-way interaction effects of framing, involvement, and political efficacy were also significant. This study suggests that prospect theory is not often used to test the effects of political campaign messages and suggests new perspectives on political campaign strategies by introducing the prospect theory into election campaign message research.

• Korea Real Estate Review
• /
• v.27 no.1
• /
• pp.7-16
• /
• 2017

In this study, we examine whether there are prospect theory investment patterns for individual investors in the real estate market. We use the maximum potential profit rate and the maximum potential loss rate of individual investors as a research method and additionally analyze it using the Jeong and Park(2015) model. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the investment pattern according to the prospect theory and disposition effect for individual investors. And we find the difference between zoning areas. This difference in investment behavior is believed to be due to the purpose of the real estate and the existence of rent fee, which creates a difference in investment behavior depending on the purpose. The limitations of this study are the analysis measurement of potential profit and potential loss using the land price index like the study of jeong and Park(2015). This implies that a new property price index needs to be developed or a benchmark for real estate assets is needed for deeper study of real estate investment sentiment.

• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.93-124
• /
• 2011

In this paper, we claim the asymmetric response of asset returns on the past asset returns' signs may be explained from the market behavioral portfolio choice of investors. For this, we admit the anchor and adjustment mechanism of investors which partly explains the momentum in the asset prices. We also claim the prospect theory based on the risk aversions may simultaneously work with the anchor and adjustment effect, whenever the lagged asset return was positive and investors accrued the gain. To identify these effects empirically in a threshold autoregressive model, we suppose the risk aversions inducing the volatility effect is related with the past volatility of asset returns. In application of suggested method to Korean stock and real estate markets, we found these effect exist as expected.

• The tire
• /
• s.141
• /
• pp.17-24
• /
• 1989

Bridgestone사에서는 트럭ㆍ버스용 래디알 타이어 신형상이론인 TCOT를 발표했다. Bridgestone사는 이미 발표한 승용차용 래디알 타이어의 형상이론인 RCOT를 토대로 PCR을 상품화하고 있는데, 최근에 발표한 TCOT는 내구성을 중시한, TBR용으로 확립한 이론이다. Bridgestone사에서는 이 이론을 일본, 미국, 유럽 등 주요국가에 특허를 출원, RCOT와 같이 국제적으로 공식화할 전망이다. 다음에 TCOT이론을 소개한다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
• /
• v.13 no.6
• /
• pp.469-480
• /
• 2013

This study suggests 12 products regarding the pending question of tourism package price mechanism which is linked directly and indirectly to Jeju Tourism, and shows the following conclusions through inspection in mental accounting principles and framing effect based on prospect theory. First, when presenting the price list of the tourism package, it is needed to present in price bundling. Second, it is proven that it is desirable that information about discount prices open the individual discount information of the basic package and option package to public. Third, it is discovered that experienced tourists in purchasing tourism products are more sensitive to price information (price discount) than inexperienced tourists, so that framing effect conform to Knowledge-assembly theory. The current questions of this study are that 'no discount' information should be presented in bundling, that the method of framing is important in presenting discount product information. It is required not only to grasp the viewpoint of modern people in purchasing tourism products, but also to present ready-to-serve products which can save time, effort, cost to give stability in mental accounting principles.

• 전기의세계
• /
• v.30 no.12
• /
• pp.764-769
• /
• 1981

본고의 내용은 다음과 같다. 1. 제어공학의 문제점 2. 역사적 고찰 3. 전망되는 연구과제 3.1 대규모 시스템 3.2 마이크로프로세서 3.3 시스템 신뢰도