• Title/Summary/Keyword: 전략시나리오

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Variation in Heading States of Korean Winter Wheat under Winter Temperature Rise of Toluca in Mexico (멕시코 톨루카 지역의 겨울 기온상승에 따른 한국 밀 품종의 출수생태 변이)

  • Park, TaeIl;Chung, Uran
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.99-108
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    • 2016
  • The shuttle breeding of Korean winter wheat has been able to develop high-yielding and day-length-intensive varieties with a wide range of ecologic adoption. However, the phenology of winter wheat has been changed due to recent rises in the winter temperature of Toluca and increasing frequency of high temperatures. We defined two wheat groups (group II and III) with vernalization and evaluated the impact of cold exposure duration and heading ratio due to changes in sowing dates by measuring changes in cold exposure duration and corresponding heading states of each group. The wheat cultivars were sown on three dates in two years. The cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 6 November 2013 was unfulfilled. The cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 22 November and 6 December 2013 was fulfilled. However, in 2014, the cold exposure requirement of wheat sown on 5 and 20 November was fulfilled, but that of wheat sown on 5 December was unfulfilled. The differences for the two early November sowings were because winter temperature rises, which caused high temperatures in 2013, whereas early November 2014 saw normal temperatures for the area. The heading ratio of group II did not show a clear difference among the three sowing dates, while the heading ratio of group III was reduced by about half. This implies that the efficiency of shuttle breeding of group III will be high since it showed strong sensitivity to changes in sowing dates. We calculated future sowing dates of each group under near future climate scenarios; the future available sowing dates of group II were projected, but the dates of group III were never estimated in the temperature rise scenario in Toluca. Our findings suggest that change of sowing dates should be considered in the strategy for shuttle breeding of Korean winter wheat.

In Situ Surfactant Flushing of Contaminated Site (계면 활성제를 이용한 In Situ 토양 세척)

  • 염익태;안규홍
    • Journal of Korea Soil Environment Society
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.9-24
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    • 1997
  • Surfactant-aided in situ soil flushing has been proposed as an alternative for the expensive and time consuming 'pump and treat' technology in remediation of contaminated soil and groundwater Injected surfactants can effectively solubilize contaminants sorbed to the soil matrix or nonaqueous phase liquids(NAPLs) in residual saturation. The contaminants solubilized in groundwater are recovered and treated further. The theoretical background of the technology and the results of the field operations, mostly in the US. were summarized. In addition, the factors crucial to the successful application of the technology were discussed. Cost analyses and technical limitations in current applications were also discussed. In conclusion, it is likely that in situ surfactant flushing become a viable option for soil remediation in limited cases. Currently, further advances with respect to operation cost and to treatment efficiency are required for more extensive application of the technology. However, the current trends in soil remediation, specially the growing emphasis on risk based corrective action and natural attenuation, will increase the competitiveness of the technology. For example, removal of easily washable contaminants by short term soil flushing followed by long term monitoring and natural attenuation can greatly reduce the operation cost and time.

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An Analysis of Process-oriented Design in the Invited Entries of International Competition for the Master Plan of the Yongsan Park, Korea (용산공원 설계 국제공모 출품작에 나타난 프로세스적 설계 분석)

  • So, Jin;Sung, Jong-Sang;Pae, Jeong-Hann
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.2
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    • pp.11-26
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    • 2013
  • Designing large parks such as Yongsan Park requires the open-ended process-oriented design approach in complex layers rather than the conventional self-completed master plan method. This study aims to examine the characteristics of process-oriented design in the eight invited entries of "International Competition for the Master Plan of the Yongsan Park, Korea"(2012). For this purpose, it analyzed each entry according to three criteria: objects of process-oriented approach, time factor and its features of phasing plan, and presentation method of the process. This analysis can not only critically review the current level of the process-centered design methodology but also suggest strategic future directions for Yongsan Park. The objects of process-oriented design in the eight works were order of physical space development, restoration process of ecosystem, recovering process of publicity, and economic operation and management. Main considerations in the objects were connections to adjacent urban fabrics, links to regional green and water system, reuse of existing buildings and infrastructures in the site. The temporal criteria of the phasing plan had two aspects. One was planning a certain time and period, and the other was just establishing an order of phases. Most of the presentation method of process was the phasing plan, but some of the entries suggested a scenario plan. The eight works of "International Competition for the Master Plan of Yongsan Park" did not attempt process-oriented designs entirely and completely. Rather, they tried to introduce the phasing plan as part of a process-centered design. Also, they took an eclectic approach between master plan and process-oriented design instead of rejecting the conventional master plan approach.

Quantification of Temperature Effects on Flowering Date Determination in Niitaka Pear (신고 배의 개화기 결정에 미치는 온도영향의 정량화)

  • Kim, Soo-Ock;Kim, Jin-Hee;Chung, U-Ran;Kim, Seung-Heui;Park, Gun-Hwan;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2009
  • Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from $4^{\circ}C$ to $10^{\circ}C$ (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.

An Outlook on Cereal Grains Production in South Korea Based on Crop Growth Simulation under the RCP8.5 Climate Change Scenarios (RCP8.5 기후조건의 작물생육모의에 근거한 우리나라 곡물생산 전망)

  • Kim, Dae-Jun;Kim, Soo-Ock;Moon, Kyung-Hwan;Yun, Jin-I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.132-141
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    • 2012
  • Climate change impact assessment of cereal crop production in South Korea was performed using land attributes and daily weather data at a farm scale as inputs to crop models. Farmlands in South Korea were grouped into 68 crop-simulation zone units (CZU) based on major mountains and rivers as well as existing land use information. Daily weather data at a 1-km grid spacing under the A1B- and RCP8.5 scenarios were generated stochastically to obtain decadal mean of daily data. These data were registered to the farmland grid cells and spatially averaged to represent climate conditions in each CZU. Monthly climate data for each decade in 2001~2100 were transformed to 30 sets of daily weather data for each CZU by using a stochastic weather generator. Soil data and crop management information for 68 CZU were used as inputs to the CERES-rice, CERE-barley and CROPGRO-soybean models calibrated to represent the genetic features of major domestic cultivars in South Korea. Results from the models suggested that the heading or flowering of rice, winter barley and soybean could be accelerated in the future. The grain-fill period of winter barley could be extended, resulting in much higher yield of winter barley in most CZUs than that of rice. Among the three major cereal grain crops in Korea, rice seems most vulnerable to negative impact of climate change, while little impact of climate change is expected on soybeans. Because a positive effect of climate change is projected for winter barley, policy in agricultural production should pay more attention to facilitate winter barley production as an adaptation strategy for the national food security.

Assessments of Negotiation Options Regarding Post-2012 Rules for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) -With a Focus on the Forest Management Activities under the Kyoto Protocol - (Post-2012 LULUCF 협상 대안 평가 -산림경영 활동을 중심으로 -)

  • Bae, Jae-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.98 no.1
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    • pp.55-65
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    • 2009
  • Annex I parties continued its consideration of how to address, the definitions, modalities, rules and guidelines for the treatment of Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol by the year of 2009. In the AWG-KP conference held in Accra, Ghana in 2008, four alternatives (gross-net carbon accounting, net-net with base year or base period accounting, net-net with forward looking baseline accounting, and land-based accounting method) for negotiations were decided in order to revise gross-net accounting method applied during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, alternative scenarios are set in consideration with reporting system (voluntary or compulsory), discount factors and cap about these three alternatives except for the method of net-net with forward looking baseline accounting, and then estimates the Removal Unit (RMU) among the countries. In the case that article 3.4 activities under the Kyoto Protocol revises from voluntary reporting to mandatory reporting, it is estimated that the loss of RMU would be huge in Russia, Australia, New Zealand, as well as Canada potentially. Net-net with base year or base period carbon accounting and land-based carbon accounting method have big difference of RMU in accordance with the base year or the base period. So the more unfavorable the country with a lot of old-age forests was, the closer the base year or period comes to the commitment period in the context of RMU. If it is getting lowered for the current rate of 85% in discount factors, RMU is getting higher to the whole countries. Therefore in Korea with little potential for afforestation and reforestation, there was the most sensitive response to the change of discount factors. Post-2012 LULUCF hereafter, it is strongly expected for the succession of current carbon accounting system which is voluntary reporting of gross-net carbon accounting and the activity for article 3.4. Other carbon accounting method is hard to accept in aspect that there is big differentiated interests among the countries and it is required enormous cost and time to develop reliable method. Provide for Post-2012 mandatory greenhouse gas reduction, Korea needs to have a competitive negotiation strategies differentiated from Annex I countries. The most reliable alternative would be to lower the discounting factors about the activities for forest management.

Prediction of Potential Species Richness of Plants Adaptable to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula (한반도 기후변화 적응 대상 식물 종풍부도 변화 예측 연구)

  • Shin, Man-Seok;Seo, Changwan;Lee, Myungwoo;Kim, Jin-Yong;Jeon, Ja-Young;Adhikari, Pradeep;Hong, Seung-Bum
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.562-581
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    • 2018
  • This study was designed to predict the changes in species richness of plants under the climate change in South Korea. The target species were selected based on the Plants Adaptable to Climate Change in the Korean Peninsula. Altogether, 89 species including 23 native plants, 30 northern plants, and 36 southern plants. We used the Species Distribution Model to predict the potential habitat of individual species under the climate change. We applied ten single-model algorithms and the pre-evaluation weighted ensemble method. And then, species richness was derived from the results of individual species. Two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were used to simulate the species richness of plants in 2050 and 2070. The current species richness was predicted to be high in the national parks located in the Baekdudaegan mountain range in Gangwon Province and islands of the South Sea. The future species richness was predicted to be lower in the national park and the Baekdudaegan mountain range in Gangwon Province and to be higher for southern coastal regions. The average value of the current species richness showed that the national park area was higher than the whole area of South Korea. However, predicted species richness were not the difference between the national park area and the whole area of South Korea. The difference between current and future species richness of plants could be the disappearance of a large number of native and northern plants from South Korea. The additional reason could be the expansion of potential habitat of southern plants under climate change. However, if species dispersal to a suitable habitat was not achieved, the species richness will be reduced drastically. The results were different depending on whether species were dispersed or not. This study will be useful for the conservation planning, establishment of the protected area, restoration of biological species and strategies for adaptation of climate change.

A Study on the Consciousness Survey of Improvement of Emergency Rescue Training -Based on the Fire Fighting Organizations in Gangwon Province- (긴급구조훈련 개선에 관한 의식조사 연구 -강원도 소방조직을 중심으로-)

  • Choi, Yunjung;Koo, Wonhoi;Baek, Minho
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.440-449
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: Fire-fighting organizations are the very first agencies that take actions at a disaster scene, and emergency rescue training is carried out for prompt and systematic response. However, there is a need for a change due to the limitations in emergency rescue trainings such as perfunctory trainings or trainings without considering regional or environmental characteristics. Method: This study is to conduct theoretical review with regard to emergency rescue training and present a measure to improve the emergency rescue training through attitude survey targeting fire-fighting organizations in Gangwon area. Result: Facilities that cause difficulties when doing emergency rescue activity were mostly hazardous material storage and processing facilities. In terms of the level of emergency rescue and response task, most respondents answered that the emergency rescue was insufficient. The respondents answered that the effectiveness of emergency rescue training was helpful, but some responses showed that the training was not helpful because of scenario-based training, seeming training, similar training carried out every year, unrealistic training, and lack of competent authorities' interest and perfunctory participations. Most respondents answered for the appropriateness of emergency rescue training and evaluation that they were satisfied, however, they were not satisfied with the evaluation methods irrelevant to the type of training, evaluation methods requiring unnecessary training scale, and evaluation methods leading perfunctory participations of competent authorities. Lastly, respondents mostly answered that training reflecting various damage situations are necessary regarding the demand on the improvement of emergency rescue training. Conclusion: The improvement measures for emergency rescue training are as follows. First, it is necessary to set and prepare various training contents in accordance with regional characteristics by reviewing major disasters occurred in the region. Second, it is necessary to revise the emergency rescue training guidelines and manuals for appropriate training plan for each fire station, provide education and training for working-level staff members, and establish training in a way that types, tactics, and strategies of emergency rescue training could be utilized practically. Third, it is necessary to prepare a scheme that can lead participation and provide incentive or penalty from the planning stage of training in order to increase the participation of supporting and competent authorities when an actual disaster occurs. Fourth, it is necessary to establish support arrangements and cooperative systems by authority through training by fire stations or zones in preparation for disaster situations that may occur simultaneously. Fifth, it is necessary to put emphasis on the training process rather than the result for emergency rescue training and evaluation, pay attention to the identification of supplement points for each disaster situation and make improvements. Especially, type or form of training should be considered rather than evaluating the execution status of detailed processes, and the evaluation measure that can consider the completeness (proficiency) of training and the status of role performance rather than the scale of training should be prepared. Sixth, type and method of training should be improved in accordance with the characteristics of each fire station by identifying the demand of working-level staff members for an efficient emergency rescue training.

A study on Convergence Weapon Systems of Self propelled Mobile Mines and Supercavitating Rocket Torpedoes (자항 기뢰와 초공동 어뢰의 융복합 무기체계 연구)

  • Lee, Eunsu;Shin, Jin
    • Maritime Security
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.31-60
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    • 2023
  • This study proposes a new convergence weapon system that combines the covert placement and detection abilities of a self-propelled mobile mine with the rapid tracking and attack abilities of supercavitating rocket torpedoes. This innovative system has been designed to counter North Korea's new underwater weapon, 'Haeil'. The concept behind this convergence weapon system is to maximize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses of each weapon type. Self-propelled mobile mines, typically placed discreetly on the seabed or in the water, are designed to explode when a vessel or submarine passes near them. They are generally used to defend or control specific areas, like traditional sea mines, and can effectively limit enemy movement and guide them in a desired direction. The advantage that self-propelled mines have over traditional sea mines is their ability to move independently, ensuring the survivability of the platform responsible for placing the sea mines. This allows the mines to be discreetly placed even deeper into enemy lines, significantly reducing the time and cost of mine placement while ensuring the safety of the deployed platforms. However, to cause substantial damage to a target, the mine needs to detonate when the target is very close - typically within a few yards. This makes the timing of the explosion crucial. On the other hand, supercavitating rocket torpedoes are capable of traveling at groundbreaking speeds, many times faster than conventional torpedoes. This rapid movement leaves little room for the target to evade, a significant advantage. However, this comes with notable drawbacks - short range, high noise levels, and guidance issues. The high noise levels and short range is a serious disadvantage that can expose the platform that launched the torpedo. This research proposes the use of a convergence weapon system that leverages the strengths of both weapons while compensating for their weaknesses. This strategy can overcome the limitations of traditional underwater kill-chains, offering swift and precise responses. By adapting the weapon acquisition criteria from the Defense force development Service Order, the effectiveness of the proposed system was independently analyzed and proven in terms of underwater defense sustainability, survivability, and cost-efficiency. Furthermore, the utility of this system was demonstrated through simulated scenarios, revealing its potential to play a critical role in future underwater kill-chain scenarios. However, realizing this system presents significant technical challenges and requires further research.

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A Study on Appropriate Military Strength of Unified Korea (Focused on relative balance strategy and conflict scenario) (통일 한국의 적정 군사력에 관한 연구 - 분쟁 시나리오와 상대적 균형전략을 중심으로 -)

  • Hong, Bong-Gi
    • Journal of National Security and Military Science
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    • s.13
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    • pp.687-738
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    • 2016
  • To prepare for the complicated international relationship regarding Korean Peninsula after reunification, this thesis started off with the awareness that Unified Korea should build its international posture and national security at an early stage by determining its appropriate military strength for independent defense and military strategies that Unified Korea should aim. The main theme of this thesis is 'The research on appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military'. To derive appropriate military strength of Unified Korea, this research focuses on conflict scenario and relative balance strategy based on potential threats posed by neighboring countries, and this is the part that differentiates this research from other researches. First of all, the main objective of the research is to decide appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to secure defense sufficiency. For this, this research will decide efficient military strategy that Unified Korea should aim. Than by presuming the most possible military conflict scenario, this research will judge the most appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to overcome the dispute. Second, after deciding appropriate military strength, this research will suggest how to operate presumed military strength in each armed force. The result of this thesis is as in the following. First, Unified Korea should aim 'relative balance strategy'. 'Relative balance strategy' is a military strategy which Unified Korea can independently secure defense sufficiency by maintaining relative balance when conflicts occur between neighboring countries. This strategy deters conflicts in advance by relative balance of power in certain time and place. Even if conflict occurs inevitably, this strategy secures initiative. Second, when analyzing neighboring countries interest and strategic environment after unification, the possibility of all-out war will be low in the Korean Peninsula because no other nation wants the Korean Peninsula to be subordinated to one single country. Therefore appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military would be enough when Unified Korea can achieve relative balance in regional war or limited war. Third, Northeast Asia is a region where economic power and military strength is concentrated. Despite increasing mutual cooperation in the region, conflicts and competition to expand each countries influence is inherent. Japan is constantly enhancing their military strength as they aim for normal statehood. China is modernizing their military strength as they aspire to become global central nation. Russia is also enhancing their military strength in order to hold on to their past glory of Soviet Union as a world power. As a result, both in quality and quantity, the gap between military strength of Unified Korea and each neighboring countries is enlarged at an alarming rate. Especially in the field of air-sea power, arms race is occurring between each nation. Therefore Unified Korea should be equipped with appropriate military strength in order to achieve relative balance with each threats posed by neighboring countries. Fourth, the most possible conflicts between Unified Korea and neighboring countries could be summarized into four, which are Dokdo territorial dispute with Japan, Leodo jurisdictional dispute with China, territorial dispute concerning northern part of the Korea Peninsula with China and disputes regarding marine resources and sea routes with Russia. Based on those conflict scenarios, appropriate military strength for Unified Korea is as in the following. When conflict occurs with Japan regarding Dokdo, Japan is expected to put JMSDF Escort Flotilla 3, one out of four of its Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Escort Fleet, which is based in Maizuru and JMSDF Maizuru District. To counterbalance this military strength, Unified Korea needs one task fleet, comprised with three task flotilla. In case of jurisdictional conflict with China concerning Leodo, China is expected to dispatch its North Sea fleet, one out of three of its naval fleet, which is in charge of the Yellow Sea. To response to this military action, Unified Korea needs one task fleet, comprised with three task flotilla. In case of territorial dispute concerning northern part of the Korean Peninsula with China, it is estimated that out of seven Military Region troops, China will dispatch two Military Region troops, including three Army Groups from Shenyang Military Region, where it faces boarder with the Korean Peninsula. To handle with this military strength, Unified Korea needs six corps size ground force strength, including three corps of ground forces, two operational reserve corps(maneuver corps), and one strategic reserve corps(maneuver corps). When conflict occurs with Russia regarding marine resources and sea routes, Russia is expected to send a warfare group of a size that includes two destroyers, which is part of the Pacific Fleet. In order to balance this strength, Unified Korea naval power requires one warfare group including two destroyers. Fifth, management direction for the Unified Korean military is as in the following. Regarding the ground force management, it would be most efficient to deploy troops in the border area with china for regional and counter-amphibious defense. For the defense except the border line with china, the most efficient form of force management would be maintaining strategic reserve corps. The naval force should achieve relative balance with neighboring countries when there is maritime dispute and build 'task fleet' which can independently handle long-range maritime mission. Of the three 'task fleet', one task fleet should be deployed at Jeju base to prepare for Dokdo territorial dispute and Leodo jurisdictional dispute. Also in case of regional conflict with china, one task fleet should be positioned at Yellow Sea and for regional conflict with Japan and Russia, one task fleet should be deployed at East Sea. Realistically, Unified Korea cannot possess an air force equal to neither Japan nor China in quantity. Therefore, although Unified Korea's air force might be inferior in quantity, they should possess the systematic level which Japan or China has. For this Unified Korea should build air base in island areas like Jeju Island or Ullenong Island to increase combat radius. Also to block off infiltration of enemy attack plane, air force needs to build and manage air bases near coastal areas. For landing operation forces, Marine Corps should be managed in the size of two divisions. For island defense force, which is in charge of Jeju Island, Ulleung Island, Dokdo Island and five northwestern boarder island defenses, it should be in the size of one brigade. Also for standing international peace keeping operation, it requires one brigade. Therefore Marine Corps should be organized into three divisions. The result of the research yields a few policy implications when building appropriate military strength for Unified Korea. First, Unified Korea requires lower number of ground troops compared to that of current ROK(Republic of Korea) force. Second, air-sea forces should be drastically reinforced. Third, appropriate military strength of the Unified Korean military should be based on current ROK military system. Forth, building appropriate military strength for Unified Korea should start from today, not after reunification. Because of this, South Korea should build a military power that can simultaneously prepare for current North Korea's provocations and future threats from neighboring countries after reunification. The core of this research is to decide appropriate military strength for Unified Korea to realize relative balance that will ensure defense sufficiency from neighboring countries threats. In other words, this research should precisely be aware of threats posed by neighboring countries and decide minimum level of military strength that could realize relative balance in conflict situation. Moreover this research will show the path for building appropriate military strength in each armed force.

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