• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제25권2호
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• pp.80-98
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 계절내-계절(Subseasonal to seasonal, S2S) 기후예측의 주별 예측 성능을 개선하기 위해서 딥러닝 기반의 후보정(post processing) 기술을 개발하였다. 그 첫 단계로, 일 최고, 최저기온과 일 강수를 목표 변수로, 자료의 특성과 분포에 적합한 자료 변환 및 특성 공학 기법을 규명하고자 하였다. 먼저, 6개 개별 기후모델의 S2S 예측 자료를 딥러닝 모델에 입력하기 위한 훈련자료로 변환하고, 이로부터 다중모델앙상블(Multi-Model Ensemble, MME) 기반 훈련자료를 구축하였다. 참값(label)으로는 ECMWF의 ERA5 재분석 자료를 사용하였다. 자료 변환 알고리즘은 최고 및 최저 차이를 계산하여 입력자료의 범위를 변형시키는 MinMax 및 MaxAbs 변환, 표준편차를 이용하는 Standard 변환 및 분위수를 지정하여 변형하는 Robust와 Quantile 변환으로 구성된 전처리 파이프라인을 구축하였으며, 변환된 훈련자료와 예측 변수와의 상관관계를 계산하여 순위에 따라 훈련자료의 특성을 선택하는 특성 선택 기법을 추가하였다. 본 연구는 U-Net 모델에 TimeDistributed wrapper를 모든 합성곱 층(convolutional layer)에 적용하여 활용하였다. 5개 알고리즘으로부터 변환된 6개 개별 기후모델 및 MME S2S 훈련자료(일 최고 및 최저기온, 강수)에 훈련 모델을 적용한 결과와 훈련 모델을 적용하지 않은 결과를 ERA5와의 공간상관계수(spatial Pattern Correlation Coefficient)를 계산하고 그 개선율인 기술 점수(skill score)를 평가한 결과, 일 강수의 PCC 기술 점수는 Standard 및 Robust 변환으로 처리된 것에서 전체 예측선행(1~4주)에 대해 모두 높았고, 일 최고 및 최저기온에서는 예측 선행시간 3~4주에서만 높게 나타났다. 또한, 일 강수에서 특성 선택에 따른 훈련자료의 차원 감소가 예측 성능 변화에 영향을 미치지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 일 최고 및 최저기온의 경우에는 특성 선택에 의한 훈련자료의 특성 정보 감소가 오히려 예측 성능을 저하시킬 수 있는 것으로 확인되었으며, 원시자료에서 예측성이 높은 1~2주 기온 예측 개선을 위한 적합한 전처리 변환 알고리즘이나 특성 선택을 찾을 수 없었다. 후속 연구에서는 원시 예측 성능이 강수에 비해 높으나 딥러닝 훈련 모델에 의한 후보정 효과가 미미한 예측 선행 1~2주 기온 예측의 저조 원인에 대해 탐색하고, 다양한 딥러닝 훈련 모델로의 적용 및 초매개변수 조정 등 학습 과정의 최적화를 통해 S2S 기후 예측 성능을 개선하고자 한다.

• 한국대기환경학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.152-167
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• 2011

MODIS/Terra level 3 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data from 2001 to 2008 have been analyzed to understand long-term aerosol and cloud optical properties, and their relationships around Korea. Interestingly, cloud fraction(CF) has the similar annual variation to aerosol optical depth (${\tau}_a$) without any temporal significant trend. Horizontal distributions of ${\tau}_a$ showed the substantial horizontal gradient from China to Korea, especially with the strong difference over the Yellow Sea, which could represent the evidence of the anthropogenic influence from China in the perspective of long-term average. Specifically the negative correlations between ${\tau}_a$ and liquid-phase cloud effective radius ($r_e$) were shown on the monthly-average basis, only in summer with significant associations over the Yellow Sea, but not in the other seasons and/or specific regions. Relationship between ${\tau}_a$ and CF for the low-level liquid-phase clouds exhibited the overall positive correlation, being consistent with cloud lifetime effect. Meanwhile static stability showed no deterministic relationships with ${\tau}_a$ as well as CF. The dependence of aerosol-cloud relationship on the meteorological conditions should be examined more in detail with the satellite remote sensing and reanalysis data.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제25권7호
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• pp.1029-1042
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• 2016

The initial and boundary conditions are important factors in regional chemical transport modeling systems. The method of generating the chemical boundary conditions for regional air quality models tends to be different from the dynamically varying boundary conditions in global chemical transport models. In this study, the impact of real time Copernicus atmosphere monitoring service (CAMS) re-analysis data from the modeling atmospheric composition and climate project interim implementation (MACC) on the regional air quality in the Korean Peninsula was carried out using the community multi-scale air quality modeling system (CMAQ). A comparison between conventional global data and CAMS for numerical assessments was also conducted. Although the horizontal resolution of the CAMS re-analysis data is not higher than the conventionally provided data, the simulated particulate matter (PM) concentrations with boundary conditions for CAMS re-analysis is more reasonable than any other data, and the estimation accuracy over the entire Korean peninsula, including the Seoul and Daegu metropolitan areas, was improved. Although an inland area such as the Daegu metropolitan area often has large uncertainty in PM prediction, the level of improvement in the prediction for the Daegu metropolitan area is higher than in the coastal area of the western part of the Korean peninsula.

• 대기
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• 제26권4호
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• pp.649-663
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• 2016

This study investigates eddy transports in terms of space and time for momentum, heat, and moisture, emphasizing comparison of the results in three reanalysis data sets including ERA-Interim from the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), NCEP2 from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the Department of Energy (NCEP-DOE), and JRA-55 from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) during boreal winter. The magnitudes for eddy transports of momentum in ERA-Interim are represented as the strongest value in comparison of three data sets, which may be mainly come from that both zonal averaged meridional and zonal wind tend to follow the hierarchy of ERA-Interim, NCEP2, and JRA-55. Whereas in relation to heat and moisture eddy transports, those of NCEP2 are the strongest, implying that zonal averaged air temperature (specific humidity) tend to follow the raking of NCEP2, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55 (NCEP2, JRA-55, and ERA-Interim), except that transient eddy transports for heat in ERA-Interim are the strongest involving both meridional wind and air temperature. The stationary and transient eddy transports in the context of space and time correlation, and intensity of standard deviation demonstrate that the correlation (intensity of standard deviation) influence the structure (magnitude) of eddy transports. The similarity between ERA-Interim and NCEP2 (ERA-Interim and JRA-55) of space correlation (time correlation) closely resembles among three data sets. A resemblance among reanalysis data sets of space correlation is larger than that of time correlation.

• 대기
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• 제25권3호
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• pp.543-557
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• 2015

The present study examines an interaction between the eddy and mean meridional circulation (MMC) comparing the results in three reanalysis data sets including ERA-Interim, NCEP2, and JRA-55 during the boreal winter in the Northern Hemisphere. It is noteworthy that the JRA-55 tends to produce stronger MMC compared to those of others, which is mainly due to the weak eddy flux. ERA-Interim represents the ensemble averages of MMC. The MMC-eddy interaction equation was adopted to investigate the scale interaction of the eddy momentum flux (EMF), eddy heat flux (EHF), and diabatic heating (DHT) with MMC. The EMF (EHF) shows a significant correlation coefficient with streamfunction under (above) 200 hPa-level. The perturbation (time mean) part of each eddy is dominant compared to another part in the EMF (EHF). The DHT is strongly interacted with streamfunction in the region between the equator and extra-tropical latitude over whole vertical column. Thus, the dominant term in each significant region modulates interannual variability of MMC. The inverse (proportional) relationship between MMC and pressure (meridional) derivative of the momentum (heat) divergence contributions is well represented in the three reanalysis data sets. The region modulated interannual variability of MMC by both EMF and DHT (EHF) is similar in ERA-Interim and JRA-55 (ERA-Interim and NCEP2). JRA-55 shows a lack of significant region of EHF due to the high resolution, compared to other data sets.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제41권4호
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• pp.213-232
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• 2019

This study evaluates the accuracy of four satellite-composite (OSTIA, AVHRR, G1SST, FNMONC-S) and three model-reanalysis (HYCOM, JCOPE2, FNMOC-M) daily sea surface temperature (SST) data around the Korean Peninsula (KP) using ocean buoy data from 2011-2016. The results reveal that OSTIA has the lowest root mean square error (RMSE; 0.68℃) and FNMOC-S/M has the highest correction coefficients (r = 0.993) compared with observations, while G1SST, JCOPE2, and AVHRR have relatively larger RMSEs and smaller correlations. The large RMSEs were found in the western coastal regions of the KP where water depth is shallow and tides are strong, such as Chilbaldo and Deokjeokdo, while low RMSEs were found in the East Sea and open oceans where water depth is relatively deep such as Donghae, Ulleungdo, and Marado. We found that the main sources of the large RMSEs, sometimes reaching up to 5℃, in SST data around the KP, can be attributed to rapid SST changes during events of strong tidal mixing, upwelling, and typhoon-induced mixing. The errors in the background SST fields which are used in data assimilations and satellite composites and the missing in-situ observations are also potential sources of large SST errors. These results suggest that both satellite and reanalysis SST data, which are believed to be true observation-based data, sometimes, can have significant inherent errors in specific regions around the KP and thus the use of such SST products should proceed with caution particularly when the aforementioned events occur.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제34권1호
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• pp.73-83
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• 2012

Antarctica is very sensitive to climate change but the number of stations is not sufficient to accurately analyze climate change in this regoin. Model reanalysis data supplements the lack of observation and can be used as long term data to verify climate change. In this study, the 20CR (Twentieth Century Reanalysis) Project data from NCEP/NCAR and monthly mean data (temperature, solar radiation and longwave radiation) from 1871 to 2008, was used to analyze the temperature trend and change in radiation. The 20CR data was used to validate the observation data from Antarctica since 1950 and the correlation coefficients between these data were determined to be over 0.95 at all stations. The temperature increased by approximately $0.23^{\circ}C$/decade during the study period and over $0.20^{\circ}C$/decade over all of the months. This increasing trend was observed throughout the Antarctica and a slight increase was observed in the Antarctic Peninsula. In addition, solar radiation (surface) and longwave radiation (surface and top of atmosphere) trends correlated with the increase in temperature. As a result, outgoing longwave radiation at the surface is attenuated by atmospheric water vapor or clouds and radiation at the top of the atmosphere was reduced. In addition, the absorbed energy in the atmosphere increases the temperature of the atmosphere and surface, and then the heated surface emits more longwave radiation. Eventually these processes are repeated in a positive feedback loop, which results in a continuous rise in temperature.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.21-31
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• 2008

Analyzing the results of East Sea Regional Ocean Model using a 3-dimensional variational data assimilation scheme, we investigated spatial and temporal variability of the North Korean Cold Current (NKCC) in the East Sea. The climatological monthly mean transport of the NKCC clearly shows seasonal variation of the NKCC within the range of about 0.35 Sv ($=0^6m^3/s$), which increases from its minimum (about 0.45 Sv) through December-January to March, decreases during March and May, and then increases again to the maximum (about 0.8 Sv) in August-September. The volume transport of the NKCC shows interannual variation of the NKCC with the range of about 1.0 Sv that is larger than seasonal variation. The southward current of the NKCC appears often not only in summer but in winter as well. The width of the NKCC is about 35 km near the Korean coast and its core is located under the East Korea Warm Current. The North Korean Cold Water (NKCW), characterized by low salinity and low temperature, is located both under the Tsushima Warm Water and in the western side of the maximum southward current of the NKCC that means the NKCC advects the NKCW southward along the Korean coast. It is revealed that the intermediate low salinity water, formed off the Vladivostok in winter, flows southward to the south of $37^{\circ}N$ through $2{\sim}3$ paths; one path along the Korean coast, another one along $132^{\circ}E$, and the middle path along $130^{\circ}E$. The path of the intermediate low salinity varies with years. The reanalysis fields suggest that the NKCW is advected through the paths along the Korean coast and along $130^{\circ}E$.

• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.97-109
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• 2016

Heavy rainfall (over $80mm\;hr^{-1}$) system associated with unstable atmospheric conditions occurred over the Seoul metropolitan area on 27 July 2011. To investigate the heavy rainfall system, we used three-dimensional data from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) reanalysis data and analysed the structure of the precipitation system, kinematic characteristics, thermodynamic properties, and Meteorological condition. The existence of Upper-Level Jet (ULJ) and Low-Level Jet (LLJ) are accelerated the heavy rainfall. Convective cloud developed when a strong southwesterly LLJ and strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Environmental conditions included high equivalent potential temperature of over 355 K at low levels, and low equivalent potential temperature of under 330 K at middle levels, causing vertical instability. The tip of the band shaped precipitation system was made up of line-shaped convective systems (LSCSs) that caused flooding and landslides, and the LSCSs were continuously enhanced by merging between new cells and the pre-existing cell. Difference of wind direction between low and middle levels has also been considered an important factor favouring the occurrence of precipitation systems similar to LSCSs. Development of LSCs from the wind direction difference at heights of the severe precipitation occurrence area was also identified. This study can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of severe weather.

• 대기
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• 제28권4호
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• pp.415-425
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• 2018

The roles of atmospheric heating formation and distribution on the global circulation are of utmost importance, and those are directly related to not only spatial but also temporal characteristics of monsoon system. In this study, before we clarify the characteristics of apparent heat source <$Q_1$> and moisture sink <$Q_2$>, comparisons of three reanalysis datasets (NCEP2, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) in its global or regional patterns are performed to clearly evaluate differences among datasets. Considering inter-hemispheric difference of global monsoon regions, seasonal means of June-July-August and December-January-February, which is summer (winter) and winter (summer) in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere are employed respectively. Here we show the characteristics of eight different regional monsoon regions and find contributions of <$Q_2$> to <$Q_1$> for the regional monsoon regions. Each term in apparent heat source and moisture sink is shown to come from the ERA-Interim dataset, since the ERA-Interim could be representative of three datasets. The NCEP2 data has a different characteristic in the ratio of <$Q_2$> and <$Q_1$> because it overestimates <$Q_1$> compared to the other two different datasets. The Australia monsoon has been performing better over time, while some regional monsoons (South America, North America, and North Africa) have been showing increasing data inconsistency. In addition, the three reanalysis datasets are getting different marching with time, in particular since the early 2000s over South America, North America, and North Africa monsoon regions. The recent inconsistency among the three datasets that may be associated with the global warming hiatus remains unexplored.