• Title/Summary/Keyword: 자원추계

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Feeding Characteristics of the Japanese Anchovy, Engraulis japonicus According to the Distribution of Zooplankton in the Coastal Waters of Southern Korea (한국 남해 연안 해역에서 출현하는 동물플랑크톤의 분포에 따른 멸치 섭이 특성)

  • Kim, Min Jung;Youn, Seok Hyun;Kim, Jin-Yeong;Oh, Chul-Woong
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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    • v.31 no.4
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    • pp.275-287
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    • 2013
  • The Japanese anchovy Engraulis japonicus is a widespread species in the western North Pacific and major fishery resource. To understand the spatio-temporal variation of anchovy prey items in the coastal waters of southern Korea, the stomach contents of anchovy and the structure of the zooplankton community were analysed at three sites (Jindo, Yeosu and Tong-yeong) from July 2011 to February 2012. The main prey items in Yeosu and Jindo were cyprid stage of barnacle (>35%) and copepod Calanus sinicus (>22%) in July, respectively, while, predominant ones in Tongyeong were small copepods, Paracalanus parvus s.l. (41%) and Corycaeus affinis (22%). During this period, the dominant zooplankton were cladoceran Evadne tergestina (39%) in Yeosu, small copepod, P. parvus s.l. (28%) in Jindo and cladoceran E. tergestina (14%) in Tongyeong. The dominant prey items were barnacle larvae and copepods in summer, phytoplankton and Pseudodiaptomus marinus in autumn and P. parvus s.l. and cold water copepod, Centropages abdominalis in winter. Anchovy prefer the prey item C. sinicus (3%) over E. tergestina (39%), which was a dominant species in the catching site in summer. P. marinus (0.5%) and C. abdominalis (0.9%) were preferred over P. parvus s.l. (30%, 21%) in autumn and winter, respectively. Prey items varied with area and season in the coastal waters of southern Korea. These results suggest that the prey selectivity of anchovy showed high flexibility and adaptability in the study waters.

The Effects of the Heavy and Chemical Industry Policy of the 1970s on the Capital Efficiency and Export Competitiveness of Korean Manufacturing Industries (1970년대(年代) 중화학공업정책(重化學工業政策)이 자본효율성(資本效率性)과 수출경쟁력(輸出競爭力)에 미친 영향(影響))

  • Yoo, Jung-ho
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.65-113
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    • 1991
  • Korea's rapid economic growth of the past thirty years was led by extremely fast export growth under extensive government intervention. Until very recently, the political regimes were authoritarian and oppressed human rights and labor movements. Because of these characteristics, many inside and outside Korea are under the impression that the rapid economic growth was made possible by the government's relentless push for export growth through industrial targetjng. Whether or not the government intervention was pivotal in Korean economic growth is an important issue because of its normative implications on the role of government and the degree of economic policy intervention in a market economy. A good example of industrial targeting policy in Korea is the "Heavy and Chemical Industry (HCI)" policy, which began in the early 1970s and lasted for one decade. Under the HCI policy the government intervened in resource allocation through preferential tax, trade, and credit and interest rate policies for "key industries" which included iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, shipbuilding, general machinery, chemicals, and electronics. This paper investigates the effects of. the HCI policy on the efficiency of capital and the export competitiveness of manufacturing industries. For individual three-digit KSIC (Korea Standard Industrial Classification) industries and for two industry groups, one favored by HCI Policy and the other not, this paper: (1) computes capital intensities and discusses the impact of the HCI policy on the changes in the intensities over time, (2) estimates the capital efficiencies and examines them on the basis of optimal condition of resource allocation, and (3) compares the Korean and Taiwanese shares of total imports by the OECD countries as a way of weighing the effects of the policy on the industries' export competitiveness. Taiwan is a good reference, as it did not adopt the kind of industrial targeting policy that Korea did, while the Taiwanese and Korean economies share similar characteristics. In the 1973-78 period, the capital intensity rose rapidly for the "HC Group" the group of industries favored by the policy, while it first declined and later showed an anemic rise for the "Light Group," the remaining manufacturing industries. Capital efficiency was much lower in the HC Group than in the Light Group, at least until the late 1970s. This paper acribes these results to excess investments in the favored industries and concludes that growth could have been faster in the absence of the HCI policy. The Korean Light Group's share in total imports by the OECD was larger than that of its Taiwanese counterpart but has become much smaller since 1978. For the HC Group Korea's market share was smaller than Taiwan's and has declined even more since the mid-1970s. This weakening in the export competitiveness of Korea's industries relative to Taiwan's lasted until the mid-1980s. This paper concludes that the HCI policy had either no positive effect on the competitiveness of the Korean manufacturing industries or negative effects.

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Studies on the Fishery Biology of Pomfrets, Pampus spp. in the Korean Waters 5. Distribution and Fishing Condition (한국근해 병어류의 자원생물학적 연구 5. 분포와 어황)

  • CHO Kyu Dae;KIM Jeong Chang;CHOE Yong Kyu
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.294-305
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    • 1989
  • Basedon statistical data of pomfret (Pampus spp.) catches by the stow net during $1970\~1985$, the distribution and migration of pomfrets and fishing conditions were investigated in relation to oceanographic conditions, in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea. The main fishing grounds of Pomfrets were formed around the Great Yangtze Sand Bank which locates between the Cheju Island and the mouth of the Yangtze River. Its area occupied only 11 percent of all fishing grounds, and about 70 percent of total catch was found there. The coefficient of variation(CV) in catch was below 0.01 in the whole fishing grounds and that of tile main fishing grounds (14 fishing areas) was $0.001\~0.003$. This area was indicated markedly by the inflow of Yellow Sea Warm Current from spring to autumn, and this mixing area which formed the oceanic front among the China Continental Shelf Water, the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water and the Tsushima Warm Current. The pomfrets migrates to south-north according to the expansion and contraction of the Tsushima Warm Current including the Yellow Sea Warm Current and the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water. Therefore, it migrates to north of the Yellow Sea in summer and to southern part of the East China Sea in winter. The most frequent range of the water type for high catch was $10\~12^{\circ}C$ in temperature and $32.4\~33.4\%_{circ}$ in salinity. The ranges was occupied more than 70 percent of total catch on fishing season. The frequency range of the water type was not different between the abundant fishing periods and the poor fishing periods in terms of the maximum catches.

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Reviewing Classification Scheme of Timber Assets for the National Accounting in Korea (국부통계 산출을 위한 입목자산 분류기준의 정립)

  • Chong, Se Kyung;Kim, Young-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.96 no.6
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    • pp.724-729
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    • 2007
  • Due to the low productivity in timber harvesting, economic values of forest resources have been rarely validated in Korea. Since the Korea Forest Service provided a statistic of the timber assets for the survey of the 4th National Accounting (1998), no more statistics or measurements have been provided. Further, it becomes an issue that there is no clear standard to classify timber assets into produced or non-produced assets. In this research, we intended to provide a reasonable standard that enables one to classify timber assets either in produced or non-produced assets. For this purpose, articles in the '1993 System of National Accounts (SNA)', which presented definitions and scopes of biological assets, were scanned. The articles related to timber assets in the Korean version of SNA were compared with those in the original version of SNA that were proposed by UN. The results show that the Korean version of SNA seems to have much emphasis on natural occurrence or plantation for the classification standard, while its original version rather focus on the existence of direct control, responsibility, and management by institutional units. According to the original version of SNA, naturally occurring assets, which were basically classified into non-produced assets, were treated as being cultivated and classified into the produced asset when they (or their growth) were under the direct control, responsibility, and management of institutional units. Therefore, a guidance was presented to renew the Korean version of SNA and to innovate the classification standards for timber assets.

The Estimation of IDF Curve Considering Climate Change (기후변화를 고려한 IDF곡선 추정방안에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kyoung, Min-Soo;Lee, Keon-Haeng;Kim, Hyung-Soo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2007.05a
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    • pp.774-779
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    • 2007
  • IDF 곡선은 전통적으로 지점에서의 과거 관측 강우량 시계열 자료를 수집하여 작성하여 왔으며, 이때 과거 강우량 자료는 정상성을 지니고 있고 미래를 대변한다는 가정을 전제로 한다. 그러나 이미 많은 연구자들에 의해 기후변화가 전구적으로 발생하고 있으며 우리나라에서도 더 이상 기후변화의 사실여부는 이제 더이상 논란 꺼리가 아니다. 특히, 기후변화의 영향을 직접적으로 받을 수밖에 없는 수자원 분야에서는 1990년대부터 잦은 홍수와 가뭄의 반복으로 곤란을 겪고 있다. 특히, 우리나라는 협소한 국토면적과 과다한 인구로 토지나 수자원 등 국토자원 이용의 강도가 다른 나라에 비하여 현저하게 높기 때문에 지구온난화에 따른 기후변화와 같은 약간의 기후변동으로도 심각한 문제가 발생할 가능성이 내포되어 있다. 특히, 기후변화는 유역 규모의 강우 발생 패턴과 강우량의 증가 및 감소에 영향을 미치게 되며 이로 인해 강우 시계열 자료는 비정상성과 경향성을 지니게 된다. 그러나 지금까지는 IDF 곡선의 작성시 강우의 경향성을 무시해 왔다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화가 IDF 곡선에 미치는 영향을 분석하기 위하여 GCM 기후변화 시나리오를 이용하여 IDF 곡선을 작성하였다. 이를 위하여 먼저, YONU CGCM의 제한실험과 점증실험을 실시하여 전구적 규모의 기후변화 시나리오를 작성하였으며, 통계학적 축소기법과 추계학적 일기발생기법을 이용하여 대상지점의 일 수문기상 시계열을 모의하였다. 그리고 BLRP(Bartlett Lewis Rectangular Pulse) 모형과 분해(koutsoyiannis, 2000) 기법을 이용하여 모의된 일 강우 자료를 시자료로 분해하였으며 이를 이용하여 IDF 곡선을 작성하였다. 그 결과, 기후변화 시 지속기간별 재현기간별 강우량이 현재에 크게 비해 증가됨을 확인할 수 있었다.으며 여러명이 동시에 서버에 접속을 하기 때문에 컴퓨터에 부하가 많이 걸리는 모델링이나 복잡한 분석은 실시하기 어려우며, 대용량 데이터를 전송할 수 있는 대역폭이 확보 되어야 한다. 또한, Internet 환경으로 개발을 해야되기 때문에 데스크탑용 GIS에 비해 개발속도가 느리며 개발 초기비용이 많이 들게 된다. 하지만, 네트워크 기술의 발달과 모바일과의 연계 등으로 이러한 약점을 극복할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 따라서 본 논문에서는 인터넷 GIS를 이용하여 홍수재해 정보를 검색, 처리, 분석, 예경보할 수 있는 홍수방재정보 시스템을 구축토록 하였다.비해 초음파 감시하 치골상부 방광천자가 정확하고 안전한 채뇨법으로 권장되어야 한다고 생각한다.應裝置) 및 운용(運用)에 별다른 어려움이 없고, 내열성(耐熱性)이 강(强)하므로 쉬운 조건하(條件下)에서 경제적(經濟的)으로 공업적(工業的) 이용(利用)에 유리(有利)하다고 판단(判斷)되어진다.reatinine은 함량이 적었다. 관능검사결과(官能檢査結果) 자가소화(自家消化)시킨 크릴간장은 효소(酵素)처리한 것이나 재래식 콩간장에 비하여 품질 면에서 손색이 없고 저장성(貯藏性)이 좋은 크릴간장을 제조(製造)할 수 있다는 결론을 얻었다.이 있음을 확인할 수 있었다.에 착안하여 침전시 슬러지층과 상등액의 온도차를 측정하여 대사열량의 발생량을 측정하고 슬러지의 활성을 측정할 수 있는 방법을 개발하였다.enin과 Rhaponticin의 작용(作用)에 의(依)한 것이며, 이는 한의학(韓醫學) 방제(方劑) 원리(原理)인 군신좌사(君臣佐使) 이론(理論)에서 군약(君藥)이 주증(主症)에 주(主)로 작용(作用)하는 약물(藥物)이라는 것을 밝혀주는 것이라고 사료(思料)된다.일전 $13.447\;{\mu}g/hr/g$, 섭취 7일중 $8.123

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A New Pod Edible Kidney Bean Variety "Hwanghyeob 2" with Yellow Pod Color (협채용 강낭콩 신품종 "황협2호")

  • Shin, Doo-Chull;Kang, Sung-Taek;Han, Won-Young;Baek, In-Youl;Choung, Myoung-Gun;Park, Keum-Yong;Ha, Tae-Jung;Hwang, Young-Hyun;Ko, Jong-Min;Suh, Duck-Yong;Kim, Ho-Yeong
    • Korean Journal of Breeding Science
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    • v.40 no.4
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    • pp.470-473
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    • 2008
  • A new kidney bean cultivar, "Hwanghyeob 2" was developed for edible pod kidney bean adaptable to Korean cultivation at the National Institute of Crop Science in 2005. "Hwanghyeob 2" was selected from a cross between KLG50073 and KLG50072. It has determinate growth habit, white flower, yellow pod color, oval shape of crossed section of pod at the harvesting time for edible pod. It has white seed coat and middle seed size (20.4 grams per 100 seeds). The average yield of edible pod of "Hwanghyeob 2" was 22.43 M/T per hectare in the yield trials which was carried out at the green house in spring and autumn in 2005. This yield level was 11 percent higher than that of the check cultivar "Kangnangkong 1".

Feeding Habits of the Large Yellow Croaker, Larimichthys crocea in the Coastal Waters of Jeju Island, Korea (한국 제주 연안에 출현하는 부세(Larimichthys crocea)의 식성)

  • Do-Yeon Park;Do-Gyun Kim;Seong-Yong Moon;Jeong-Ho Park;Hee-Yong Kim;Gun Wook Baeck
    • Korean Journal of Ichthyology
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.182-187
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    • 2024
  • Feeding habits of the large yellow croaker, Larimichthys crocea, was studied using 816 specimens collected by large pair-trawl fishery from June 2021 to May 2022 in the coastal waters of Jeju Island, Korea. The range of total length was 19.8~57.4 cm. Using the IRI, Pisces were mainly prey component constituted 57.5%. Euphausiacea and Macrura were important prey component constituted 23.2% and 18.7%, respectively. There was a significant difference in the change in diet composition by size group. As the L. crocea grew, the feeding rate of Euphausiacea decreased and the feeding rate of Pisces increased. There were also significant differences in the changes in diet composition by seasonal group. The most important prey species for L. crocea in the winter and spring were Pisces, in the summer it was Macrura, and in the fall it was Euphausiacea. As a result of analyzing the feeding relationship between size groups and season groups, L. crocea showed significant differences in the interaction between size groups and season groups.

Study on the spatial distribution and aggregation characteristics of fisheries resources in the East Sea, West Sea and South Sea of the South Korea in spring and autumn using a hydroacoustic method (음향을 이용한 춘계와 추계에 우리나라 동서남해의 수산자원의 공간적인 분포 및 군집특성 조사)

  • PARK, Junseong;HWANG, Kangseok;PARK, Junsu;KANG, Myounghee
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.54 no.2
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    • pp.146-156
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    • 2018
  • Acoustic surveys were conducted in the seas surround the South Korea (South Sea A, South Sea B (waters around the Jeju Island), West Sea and East Sea) in spring and autumn in 2016. First, the vertical and horizontal distributions of fisheries resources animals were examined. In most cases vertical acoustic biomass was high in surface water and mid-water layers other than South Sea A in autumn and West Sea. The highest vertical acoustic biomass showed at the depth of 70-80 m in the South Sea A in spring ($274.4m^2/nmi^2$) and the lowest one was 10-20 m in the West Sea in autumn ($0.4m^2/nmi^2$). With regard to the horizontal distributions of fisheries resources animals, in the South Sea A, the acoustic biomass was high in eastern and central part of the South Sea and the northeast of Jeju Island ($505.4-4099.1m^2/nmi^2$) in spring while it was high in eastern South Sea and the coastal water of Yeosu in autumn ($1046.9-2958.3m^2/nmi^2$). In the South Sea B, the acoustic biomass was occurred high in the southern and western seas of Jeju Island in spring ($201.0-1444.9m^2/nmi^2$) and in the southern of Jeju Island in autumn ($203.7-1440.9m^2/nmi^2$). On the other hand, the West Sea showed very low acoustic biomass in spring (average NASC of $1.1m^2/nmi^2$), yet high acoustic biomass in the vicinity of 37 N in autumn ($562.6-3764.2m^2/nmi^2$). The East Sea had high acoustic biomass in the coastal seas of Busan, Ulsan and Pohang in spring ($258.7{\sim}976.4m^2/nmi^2$) and of Goseong, Gangneung, Donghae, Pohang and Busan in autumn ($267.3-1196.3m^2/nmi^2$). During survey periods, fish schools were observed only in the South Sea A and the East Sea in spring and the West Sea in autumn. Fish schools in the South Sea A in spring were small size ($333.2{\pm}763.2m^2$) but had a strong $S_V$ ($-49.5{\pm}5.3dB$). In the East Sea, fish schools in spring had low $S_V$ ($-60.5{\pm}14.5dB$) yet had large sizes ($537.9{\pm}1111.5m^2$) and were distributed in the deep water depth ($83.5{\pm}33.5m$). Fish schools in the West Sea in autumn had strong $S_V$ ($-49.6{\pm}7.4dB$) and large sizes ($507.1{\pm}941.8m^2$). It was the first time for three seas surrounded South Korea to be conducted by acoustic surveys to understand the distribution and aggregation characteristics of fisheries resources animals. The results of this study would be beneficially used for planning a future survey combined acoustic method and mid-water trawling, particularly deciding a survey location, a time period, and a targeting water depth.

On-Line Determination Steady State in Simulation Output (시뮬레이션 출력의 안정상태 온라인 결정에 관한 연구)

  • 이영해;정창식;경규형
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Simulation Conference
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    • 1996.05a
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    • pp.1-3
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    • 1996
  • 시뮬레이션 기법을 이용한 시스템의 분석에 있어서 실험의 자동화는 현재 많은 연구와 개발이 진행 중인 분야이다. 컴퓨터와 정보통신 시스템에 대한 시뮬레이션의 예를 들어 보면, 수많은 모델을 대한 시뮬레이션을 수행할 경우 자동화된 실험의 제어가 요구되고 있다. 시뮬레이션 수행회수, 수행길이, 데이터 수집방법 등과 관련하여 시뮬레이션 실험방법이 자동화가 되지 않으면, 시뮬레이션 실험에 필요한 시간과 인적 자원이 상당히 커지게 되며 출력데이터에 대한 분석에 있어서도 어려움이 따르게 된다. 시뮬레이션 실험방법을 자동화하면서 효율적인 시뮬레이션 출력분석을 위해서는 시뮬레이션을 수행하는 경우에 항상 발생하는 초기편의 (initial bias)를 제거하는 문제가 선결되어야 한다. 시뮬레이션 출력분석에 사용되는 데이터들이 초기편의를 반영하지 않는 안정상태에서 수집된 것이어야만 실제 시스템에 대한 올바른 해석이 가능하다. 실제로 시뮬레이션 출력분석과 관련하여 가장 중요하면서도 어려운 문제는 시뮬레이션의 출력데이터가 이루는 추계적 과정 (stochastic process)의 안정상태 평균과 이 평균에 대한 신뢰구간(confidence interval: c. i.)을 구하는 것이다. 한 신뢰구간에 포함되어 있는 정보는 의사결정자에게 얼마나 정확하게 평균을 추정할 구 있는지 알려 준다. 그러나, 신뢰구간을 구성하는 일은 하나의 시뮬레이션으로부터 얻어진 출력데이터가 일반적으로 비정체상태(nonstationary)이고 자동상관(autocorrelated)되어 있기 때문에, 전통적인 통계적인 기법을 직접적으로 이용할 수 없다. 이러한 문제를 해결하기 위해 시뮬레이션 출력데이터 분석기법이 사용된다.본 논문에서는 초기편의를 제거하기 위해서 필요한 출력데이터의 제거시점을 찾는 새로운 기법으로, 유클리드 거리(Euclidean distance: ED)를 이용한 방법과 현재 패턴 분류(pattern classification) 문제에 널리 사용 중인 역전파 신경망(backpropagation neural networks: BNN) 알고리듬을 이용하는 방법을 제시한다. 이 기법들은 대다수의 기존의 기법과는 달리 시험수행(pilot run)이 필요 없으며, 시뮬레이션의 단일수행(single run) 중에 제거시점을 결정할 수 있다. 제거시점과 관련된 기존 연구는 다음과 같다. 콘웨이방법은 현재의 데이터가 이후 데이터의 최대값이나 최소값이 아니면 이 데이터를 제거시점으로 결정하는데, 알고기듬 구조상 온라인으로 제거시점 결정이 불가능하다. 콘웨이방법이 알고리듬의 성격상 온라인이 불가능한 반면, 수정콘웨이방법 (Modified Conway Rule: MCR)은 현재의 데이터가 이전 데이터와 비교했을 때 최대값이나 최소값이 아닌 경우 현재의 데이터를 제거시점으로 결정하기 때문에 온라인이 가능하다. 평균교차방법(Crossings-of-the-Mean Rule: CMR)은 누적평균을 이용하면서 이 평균을 중심으로 관측치가 위에서 아래로, 또는 아래서 위로 교차하는 회수로 결정한다. 이 기법을 사용하려면 교차회수를 결정해야 하는데, 일반적으로 결정된 교차회수가 시스템에 상관없이 일반적으로 적용가능하지 않다는 문제점이 있다. 누적평균방법(Cumulative-Mean Rule: CMR2)은 여러 번의 시험수행을 통해서 얻어진 출력데이터에 대한 총누적평균(grand cumulative mean)을 그래프로 그린 다음, 안정상태인 점을 육안으로 결정한다. 이 방법은 여러 번의 시뮬레이션을 수행에서 얻어진 데이터들의 평균들에 대한 누적평균을 사용하기 매문에 온라인 제거시점 결정이 불가능하며, 작업자가 그래프를 보고 임의로 결정해야 하는 단점이 있다. Welch방법(Welch's Method: WM)은 브라운 브리지(Brownian bridge) 통계량()을 사용하는데, n이 무한에 가까워질 때, 이 브라운 브리지 분포(Brownian bridge distribution)에 수렴하는 성질을 이용한다. 시뮬레이션 출력데이터를 가지고 배치를 구성한 후 하나의 배치를 표본으로 사용한다. 이 기법은 알고리듬이 복잡하고, 값을 추정해야 하는 단점이 있다. Law-Kelton방법(Law-Kelton's Method: LKM)은 회귀 (regression)이론에 기초하는데, 시뮬레이션이 종료된 후 누적평균데이터에 대해서 회귀직선을 적합(fitting)시킨다. 회귀직선의 기울기가 0이라는 귀무가설이 채택되면 그 시점을 제거시점으로 결정한다. 일단 시뮬레이션이 종료된 다음, 데이터가 모아진 순서의 반대 순서로 데이터를 이용하기 때문에 온라인이 불가능하다. Welch절차(Welch's Procedure: WP)는 5회이상의 시뮬레이션수행을 통해 수집한 데이터의 이동평균을 이용해서 시각적으로 제거시점을 결정해야 하며, 반복제거방법을 사용해야 하기 때문에 온라인 제거시점의 결정이 불가능하다. 또한, 한번에 이동할 데이터의 크기(window size)를 결정해야 한다. 지금까지 알아 본 것처럼, 기존의 방법들은 시뮬레이션의 단일 수행 중의 온라인 제거시점 결정의 관점에서는 미약한 면이 있다. 또한, 현재의 시뮬레이션 상용소프트웨어는 작업자로 하여금 제거시점을 임의로 결정하도록 하기 때문에, 실험중인 시스템에 대해서 정확하고도 정량적으로 제거시점을 결정할 수 없게 되어 있다. 사용자가 임의로 제거시점을 결정하게 되면, 초기편의 문제를 효과적으로 해결하기 어려울 뿐만 아니라, 필요 이상으로 너무 많은 양을 제거하거나 초기편의를 해결하지 못할 만큼 너무 적은 양을 제거할 가능성이 커지게 된다. 또한, 기존의 방법들의 대부분은 제거시점을 찾기 위해서 시험수행이 필요하다. 즉, 안정상태 시점만을 찾기 위한 시뮬레이션 수행이 필요하며, 이렇게 사용된 시뮬레이션은 출력분석에 사용되지 않기 때문에 시간적인 손실이 크게 된다.

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Rural Migration and Changes of Agricultural Population (농민이촌(農民離村)과 농업인구(農業人口)의 변화(變化))

  • Wu, Tsong-Shien;Kim, Kuong-Ho
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 1974
  • Taiwan agricultural development in the last decade has not been changed much since the accomplishment of land reform program. This is mainly due to the rapid development taken place within industry that agricultural development can not keep pace with. The increasing gap of rural-urban income discrepancy has caused socio-psychological unstability among rural people and inspire wants of out-migration. From 1961 to 1970, population of the ten largest cities showed an annual growth rate of 4.05%, while the population of the remainder of Taiwan showed 2.06%. Assuming the natural increase rate of these two population sections are similar, the difference of rural and urban annual growth rate can be at tributed to the flow of people from rural to urban sectors. The main objective of this paper is to identify the amount of agricultural out-migration and its impact on agricultural development and agricultural extension programs. Specifically, the objectives are to examine (1) rural-urban population composition (2) rural out-migration estimation (3) changes of agricultural population, and (4) implications for agricultural development and extension programs Some of the important findings are listed below; (1) The average agricultural out migration of the period 1960-1969 is estimated at around 60,000 per year. Take Tainan prefecture for example, the Male-Female Migration Ratio is 0.39 for age 20-24, 0.55 for age 25-29, 0.90 for 30-34. It is understood between age 20 and 34, the rural female migration rate is higher than the rural male. (2) Based on the population growth rate of 1950-1969, agricultural population is projected for the period of 1953 to 1989. By 1978, the agricultural population will reach its peak and begin to dedaine from 1980. The projected agricultural population in 1989 is 5,847,566 which occupies 29% of the Taiwan total population. (3) Assuming area of cultivated land keep unchanged as 905,263 ha. in 1970, and tif we can eliminate all 72% of part-time farms, then the average farm acreage for hose full-time farms will be increased to 3.6 hactares. This is unlikely to happen before 1989 without the government interference. (4) Less than 10% of adult farmer s of age 25-64 in 1969 enrolled in Farm Discussion Club, only 5% of adult farm women enrolled in Home Economics Club, and 5% of rural youth enrolled in 4-H Club. These statistics show a fact that only few farmers are reached by extension workers. Based on findings in this paper, some important suggestions are listed for future agricultural development. (1) Improve agricultural structure by decreasing agricultural population (a) Encourage farmers with less than 0.5 ha. of land to seek jobs outside of agriculture (b) Encourage joint cultivation and farm mechanization (c) Discourage rural migrants to Keep farm land (d) Provide occupational guidance program through extension education programs (2) Establish future farmers settlement project to assure rural youth have enough resources for farming. (3) An optimum Population policy should be integrated into rural socio-economic development and national development programs.

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