• Korean Journal of Logic
• /
• v.6 no.2
• /
• pp.135-158
• /
• 2003

베이즈주의는 믿음의 정도라는 확률의 의미해석과 수학적 확률론에 의한 계산체계를 기초로 하여 가설과 증거간의 입증(confirmation) 관계를 명료하게 분석한다. 베이즈주의는 증거 E가 가설 H를 입증한다는 것을 PR(HIE&K)-PR(HIK)>0으로 정의한다. 그러나 이러한 분석이 과연 과학자들의 입증개념을 올바로 반영하고 있는가 하는 비판이 오래된 증거(old evidence)의 문제로부터 제기되었다 오래된 증거는 이미 알려진 정보이기 때문에 완전한 확률 값 1을 부여받는다. 이 때 오래된 증거가 가설을 입증할 수 있는가 하는 질문은 베이즈주의자와 실제 과학자 사이에 서로 다른 답변을 도출한다. 먼저 베이즈주의에 따르면 오래된 증거가 가설을 입증할 수 없다. 그것은 PR(EIK)=1일 때 PR(HIK)=PR(HIE&K)의 결과가 도출되기 때문이다. 하지만 과학사의 여러 예들로부터 제시되는 실제 과학자들의 입증개념에 따르면 오래된 증거가 가설을 입증하고 있다. 필자는 이와 같은 입증개념의 이질성 문제가 다만 어떤 증거가 입증 가능한 것인지를 구분해야 하는 질적인(qualitative) 문제일 뿐만 아니라 증거가 가설을 어느 정도 입증하는지 하는 입증도를 정확하게 측정해야 하는 양적인(quantitative) 문제라는 점을 밝힌다. 특히 필자는 양적인 문제를 해결하면 질적인 문제가 자연히 해결된다는 점을 밝히고, 반 프라센이나 가버가 제안한 전략이 모두 질적인 문제만을 다루기 때문에 부분적인 해결책에 지나지 않는다는 점을 밝힘으로써 오래된 증거의 문제의 본질은 양적인 문제에 있다는 점을 주장한다.

• Korean Journal of Logic
• /
• v.20 no.3
• /
• pp.367-390
• /
• 2017

Much of literature on the paradoxes of confirmation has been focused on the problems raised by the fact that a nonblack nonraven confirms the hypothesis that every raven is black. In this paper I would like to emphasize that more interesting problems are still waiting to be explained, if we notice that a black nonraven confirms the raven hypothesis as well. For this I examine what Hempel exactly means by the paradoxes of confirmation, and show that the previous discussions on the paradoxes were at most partial solutions. Then I argue that Hempel presupposes the so-called 'converse consequence condition' regarding confirmational evidence. Finally I discuss what impact is made on the Bayesian solution to the paradoxes, if we accept a more faithful interpretation to Hempel.

• Korean Journal of Logic
• /
• v.17 no.3
• /
• pp.399-424
• /
• 2014

The main objective of this paper is to examine critically White's claim that there is a conflict between Perceptual Dogmatism and Bayesian Theory of Confirmation. For this purpose, this paper is structured as follows: In Section 2, I will introduce White's argument. Section 3 is dedicated to explaining some elements of Bayesian Theory of Confirmation. In particular, I will provide an explanation of confirmation measures and Bayesian Favoring. Using these two conceptual apparatuses, it will be shown that, contrary to what White has thought, there is a way of supporting Perceptual Dogmatism by means of Bayesian Theory of Confirmation - in particular, Bayesian Theory of Favoring.

• Korean Journal of Logic
• /
• v.8 no.2
• /
• pp.33-58
• /
• 2005

The old evidence problem raises a profound problem to Bayesian theory of confirmation that evidence known prior to a hypothesis explaining it cannot give any empirical support to the hypothesis. The old evidence problem has resisted to a lot of trials to solve it. The purpose of the paper is to solve the old evidence problem by showing that the problem originated from a serious misunderstanding about the Bayesian concept of confirmation. First, I shall make a brief analysis of the problem, and examine critically two typical Bayesian strategies to solve it. Second, I shah point out a misunderstanding commonly found among Bayesian discussions about the old evidence problem, the ignorance of the asymmetry of confirmation in the context of explanation and prediction. Lastly, 1 shall suggest two different concepts of confirmations by using the asymmetry and argue that the concept of confirmation presupposed in the old evidence problem is not a genuine Bayesian concept of confirmation.

• Korean Journal of Logic
• /
• v.14 no.2
• /
• pp.77-104
• /
• 2011

Professor Hasuk Song argues that every argumentum ad ignorantiam, i.e. the argument from ignorance is not fallacious, and social contexts play a crucial role to judge whether the argument is fallacious or not. I generally agree with him, but I think we cannot have help from his position without knowing what those contexts are. In this paper, I argue that the concept of burden of proof is the crucial one to judge whether ad ignorantiam is plausible or not, and then present four criterions who have the burden of proof. There is a burden of proof on one who argues first, who insists the doubtful ones, who has powers, and who thinks that a situation is not dangerous.

• Korea Trade Review
• /
• v.43 no.3
• /
• pp.101-124
• /
• 2018

After the establishment of the Korean Product Liability Act, a new clause on the burden of proof has been added and is being revised to meet the purpose of consumer protection. Article 3(2) of the new clause stipulates a provision for estimating a causal relationship when proving indirect facts to alleviate burden of proof. While consumer rights are increasing and public attention is drawn to consumer issues, problems are still emerging. In order to solve the problem, the U.S. Product Liability Act, which has strong consumer rights, was examined to describe the direction in which Korea's Product Liability Act should proceed in terms of consumer protection. The results of the comparative analysis show that the US has expanded the concept of strict liability in terms of rigorous liability, consumer dispute resolution, provable possibility, and litigation accessibility, The consumer dispute settlement system has thoroughly protected consumers by operating educational and systemic consumer ADR system. As for the possibility of proving, Korea has three provenances, and the United States has one. In the United States, where consumer lawsuits are frequent, lawsuits are more accessible than those in Korea, where the party responsible for proving is turned into a manufacturer and responsible for proving the case. This study focuses on consumer protection and provides implications for Korean product liability law.

• Korean Journal of Logic
• /
• v.5 no.2
• /
• pp.133-151
• /
• 2002

많은 논리학 교과서들은 무지에의 호소 논증을 무차별적으로 오류로 취급하고 있다. 그러나 나는 무지에 호소하고 있다는 형식적인 이유만으로 오류라고 취급하는 것은 잘못이라고 주장한다. 무지에의 호소가 오류인지 아닌지는 그 무지가 철저한 조사 과정을 거쳐서 나왔는가 그리고 입증의 부담이 누구에게 있는가에 따라 달라진다. 그리고 그것은 그 논증이 어떤 맥락과 상황에서 쓰이고 있느냐에 의존한다.

• Proceedings of the KSR Conference
• /
• 2005.11a
• /
• pp.77-81
• /
• 2005

본 논문은 열차제어시스템의 고장률을 정량적으로 예측하고 입증하기 위한 방안을 제시한다. 고장률의 정량적 예측은 시스템 개발단계에서 하부시스템별 고장발생확률을 예측하여 목표 고장률과 비교하고, 고장률이 높은 하부시스템의 설계를 보완하기 위함이다. 시제품이 완성된 후에는 예측된 고장률의 입증을 위해 시운전을 통한 고장데이터를 분석하거나 신뢰성시험을 통해 고장률의 예측치를 입증한다. 본 논문에서 제시하는 열차제어시스템 고장률예측과 입증은 철도신호시스템 신뢰성, 가용성, 유지보수성, 안전성관련 규격인 IEC62278의 시스템 수명주기별 신뢰성활동을 근거로 하며, 전자부품으로 구성된 시스템고장률예측은 미국방부 전자부품 고장률예측 지침인 MIL-HDBK-217을 기준으로 사용하였다.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
• /
• v.13 no.3
• /
• pp.503-508
• /
• 2018

This study describes the design and implementation of EGSE for Digital Satellite Communication. The EGSE is a equipment that evaluates digital satellite communication and requires precise and accurate measurement. EGSE consists of a PLDIU and IIU(Instrument Interface Unit), Up/Down converter for SHF band, Modems to verify the Digital Satellite Communication. The EGSE was used for performance verification and space environment test such as thermal vacuum after developing digital satellite communication.

• The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
• /
• v.17 no.1
• /
• pp.147-152
• /
• 2022

This study describes the design and implementation of EGSE for Dehop/Rehop Transponder. The EGSE is a equipment that evaluates Dehop/Rehop Transponder and requires precise and accurate measurement. EGSE consists of a PLDIU and IIU(Instrument Interface Unit), Up/Down converter for L band, Modems to verify the Dehop/Rehop Transponder. The EGSE was used for performance verification and space environment test such as thermal vacuum after developing Dehop/Rehop Transponder.