• Title/Summary/Keyword: 일사량 예측

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Risk Assessment of Pine Tree Dieback in Sogwang-Ri, Uljin (울진 소광리 금강소나무 고사발생 특성 분석 및 위험지역 평가)

  • Kim, Eun-Sook;Lee, Bora;Kim, Jaebeom;Cho, Nanghyun;Lim, Jong-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.109 no.3
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    • pp.259-270
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    • 2020
  • Extreme weather events, such as heat and drought, have occurred frequently over the past two decades. This has led to continuous reports of cases of forest damage due to physiological stress, not pest damage. In 2014, pine trees were collectively damaged in the forest genetic resources reserve of Sogwang-ri, Uljin, South Korea. An investigation was launched to determine the causes of the dieback, so that a forest management plan could be prepared to deal with the current dieback, and to prevent future damage. This study aimedto 1) understand the topographic and structural characteristics of the area which experienced pine tree dieback, 2) identify the main causes of the dieback, and 3) predict future risk areas through the use of machine-learning techniques. A model for identifying risk areas was developed using 14 explanatory variables, including location, elevation, slope, and age class. When three machine-learning techniques-Decision Tree, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were applied to the model, RF and SVM showed higher predictability scores, with accuracies over 93%. Our analysis of the variable set showed that the topographical areas most vulnerable to pine dieback were those with high altitudes, high daily solar radiation, and limited water availability. We also found that, when it came to forest stand characteristics, pine trees with high vertical stand densities (5-15 m high) and higher age classes experienced a higher risk of dieback. The RF and SVM models predicted that 9.5% or 115 ha of the Geumgang Pine Forest are at high risk for pine dieback. Our study suggests the need for further investigation into the vulnerable areas of the Geumgang Pine Forest, and also for climate change adaptive forest management steps to protect those areas which remain undamaged.

The Characteristics of Retention and Evapotranspiration in the Extensive Greening Module of Sloped and Flat Rooftops (저토심 경사지붕과 평지붕 녹화모듈의 저류 및 증발산 특성)

  • Ryu, Nam-Hyong;Lee, Chun-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.107-116
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    • 2013
  • This study was undertaken to investigate the characteristics of retention and evapotranspiration in the extensive greening module of sloped and flat rooftops for stormwater management and urban heat island mitigation. A series of 100mm depth's weighing lysimeters planted with Sedum kamtschaticum. were constructed on a 50% slope facing four orientations(north, east, south and west) and a flat rooftop. Thereafter the retention and evapotranspiration from the greening module and the surface temperature of nongreening and greening rooftop were recorded beginning in September 2012 for a period of 1 year. The characteristics of retention and evapotranspiration in the greening module were as follows. The water storage of the sloped and flat greening modules increased to 8.7~28.4mm and 10.6~31.8mm after rainfall except in the winter season, in which it decreased to 3.3mm and 3.9mm in the longer dry period. The maximum stormwater retention of the sloped and flat greening modules was 22.2mm and 23.1mm except in the winter season. Fitted stormwater retention function was [Stormwater Retention Ratio(%)=-18.42 ln(Precipitation)+107.9, $R^2$=0.80] for sloped greening modules, and that was [Stormwater Retention Ratio(%)=-22.64 ln(X)+130.8, $R^2$=0.81] for flat greening modules. The daily evapotranspiration(mm/day) from the greening modules after rainfall decreased rapidly with a power function type in summer, and with a log function type in spring and autumn. The daily evapotranspiration(mm/day) from the greening modules after rainfall was greater in summer > spring > autumn > winter by season. This may be due to the differences in water storage, solar radiation and air temperature. The daily evapotranspiration from the greening modules decreased rapidly from 2~7mm/day to less than 1mm/day for 3~5 days after rainfall, and that decreased slowly after 3~5 days. This indicates that Sedum kamtschaticum used water rapidly when it was available and conserved water when it was not. The albedo of the concrete rooftop and greening rooftop was 0.151 and 0.137 in summer, and 0.165 and 0.165 in winter respectively. The albedo of the concrete rooftop and greening rooftop was similar. The effect of the daily mean and highest surface temperature decrease by greening during the summer season showed $1.6{\sim}13.8^{\circ}C$(mean $9.7^{\circ}C$) and $6.2{\sim}17.6^{\circ}C$(mean $11.2^{\circ}C$). The difference of the daily mean and highest surface temperature between the greening rooftop and concrete rooftop during the winter season were small, measuring $-2.4{\sim}1.3^{\circ}C$(mean $-0.4^{\circ}C$) and $-4.2{\sim}2.6^{\circ}C$(mean $0.0^{\circ}C$). The difference in the highest daily surface temperature between the greening rooftop and concrete rooftop during the summer season increased with an evapotranspiration rate increase by a linear function type. The fitted function of the highest daily surface temperature decrease was [Temperature Decrease($^{\circ}C$)=$1.4361{\times}$(Evapotranspiration rate(mm/day))+8.83, $R^2$=0.59]. The decrease of the surface temperature by greening in the longer dry period was due to sun protection by the sedum canopy. The results of this study indicate that the extensive rooftop greening will assist in managing stormwater runoff and urban heat island through retention and evapotranspiration. Sedum kamtschaticum would be the ideal plant for a non-irrigated extensive green roof. The shading effects of Sedum kamtschaticum would be important as well as the evapotranspiration effects of that for the long-term mitigation effects of an urban heat island.

Predicting Crime Risky Area Using Machine Learning (머신러닝기반 범죄발생 위험지역 예측)

  • HEO, Sun-Young;KIM, Ju-Young;MOON, Tae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.64-80
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    • 2018
  • In Korea, citizens can only know general information about crime. Thus it is difficult to know how much they are exposed to crime. If the police can predict the crime risky area, it will be possible to cope with the crime efficiently even though insufficient police and enforcement resources. However, there is no prediction system in Korea and the related researches are very much poor. From these backgrounds, the final goal of this study is to develop an automated crime prediction system. However, for the first step, we build a big data set which consists of local real crime information and urban physical or non-physical data. Then, we developed a crime prediction model through machine learning method. Finally, we assumed several possible scenarios and calculated the probability of crime and visualized the results in a map so as to increase the people's understanding. Among the factors affecting the crime occurrence revealed in previous and case studies, data was processed in the form of a big data for machine learning: real crime information, weather information (temperature, rainfall, wind speed, humidity, sunshine, insolation, snowfall, cloud cover) and local information (average building coverage, average floor area ratio, average building height, number of buildings, average appraised land value, average area of residential building, average number of ground floor). Among the supervised machine learning algorithms, the decision tree model, the random forest model, and the SVM model, which are known to be powerful and accurate in various fields were utilized to construct crime prevention model. As a result, decision tree model with the lowest RMSE was selected as an optimal prediction model. Based on this model, several scenarios were set for theft and violence cases which are the most frequent in the case city J, and the probability of crime was estimated by $250{\times}250m$ grid. As a result, we could find that the high crime risky area is occurring in three patterns in case city J. The probability of crime was divided into three classes and visualized in map by $250{\times}250m$ grid. Finally, we could develop a crime prediction model using machine learning algorithm and visualized the crime risky areas in a map which can recalculate the model and visualize the result simultaneously as time and urban conditions change.

Development of a Light Extinction Coefficient Change Model according to the Growth Stage of Cucumber in a Greenhouse (온실 내 백다다기 오이의 생육단계에 따른 흡광계수 변화 모델 개발)

  • Ki Beom Jeon;Jong Hwa Shin
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.32 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2023
  • Understanding the light environment in greenhouse cultivation and the light utilization characteristics of crops is important in the study of photosynthesis and transpiration. Also, as the plant grows, the form of light utilization changes. Therefore, this study aims to develop a light extinction coefficient model reflecting the plant growth. To measure the extinction coefficient, five pyranometers were installed vertically according to the height of the plant, and the light intensity by height was collected every second during the entire growing season. According to each growth stage in the early, middle, and late stages, the difference between the top and bottom light intensity tended to increase to 69%, 72%, and 81%. When leaf area index and plant height increased, the extinction coefficient decreased, and it showed an exponential decay relationship. Three-dimensional model reflecting the two growth indexes, the paraboloid had the lowest RMSE of 1.340 and the highest regression constant of 0.968. Through this study, it was possible to predict the more precise light extinction coefficient during the growing period of plants. Furthermore, it is judged that this can be utilized for predicting and analyzing photosynthesis and transpiration according to the plant height.

Using Spatial Data and Crop Growth Modeling to Predict Performance of South Korean Rice Varieties Grown in Western Coastal Plains in North Korea (공간정보와 생육모의에 의한 남한 벼 품종의 북한 서부지대 적응성 예측)

  • 김영호;김희동;한상욱;최재연;구자민;정유란;김재영;윤진일
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.4 no.4
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    • pp.224-236
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    • 2002
  • A long-term growth simulation was performed at 496 land units in the western coastal plains (WCP) of North Korea to test the potential adaptability of each land unit for growing South Korean rice cultivars. The land units for rice cultivation (CZU), each of them represented by a geographically referenced 5 by 5 km grid tell, were identified by analyzing satellite remote sensing data. Surfaces of monthly climatic normals for daily maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation number of rain days and solar radiation were generated at a 1 by 1 km interval by spatial statistical methods using observed data at 51 synoptic weather stations in North and South Korea during 1981-2000. Grid cells felling within a same CZU and, at the same time, corresponding to the satellite data- identified rice growing pixels were extracted and aggregated to make a spatially explicit climatic normals relevant to the rice growing area of the CZU. Daily weather dataset for 30 years was randomly generated from the monthly climatic normals of each CZU. Growth and development parameters of CERES-rice model suitable for 11 major South Korean cultivars were derived from long-term field observations. Eight treatments comprised of 2 transplanting dates $\times$ 2 cropping systems $\times$ 2 irrigation methods were assigned to each cultivar. Each treatment was simulated with the randomly generated 30 years' daily weather data (from planting to physiological maturity) for 496 land units in WCP to simulate the growth and yield responses to the interannual climate variation. The same model was run with the input data from the 3 major crop experiment stations in South Korea to obtain a 30 year normal performance of each cultivar, which was used as a "reference" for comparison. Results were analyzed with respect to spatial and temporal variation in yield and maturity, and used to evaluate the suitability of each land unit for growing a specific South Korean cultivar. The results may be utilized as decision aids for agrotechnology transfer to North Korea, for example, germplasm evaluation, resource allocation and crop calendar preparation.

A Statistical model to Predict soil Temperature by Combining the Yearly Oscillation Fourier Expansion and Meteorological Factors (연주기(年週期) Fourier 함수(函數)와 기상요소(氣象要素)에 의(依)한 지온예측(地溫豫測) 통계(統計) 모형(模型))

  • Jung, Yeong-Sang;Lee, Byun-Woo;Kim, Byung-Chang;Lee, Yang-Soo;Um, Ki-Tae
    • Korean Journal of Soil Science and Fertilizer
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.87-93
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    • 1990
  • A statistical model to predict soil temperature from the ambient meteorological factors including mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures, precipitation, wind speed and snow depth combined with Fourier time series expansion was developed with the data measured at the Suwon Meteorolical Service from 1979 to 1988. The stepwise elimination technique was used for statistical analysis. For the yearly oscillation model for soil temperature with 8 terms of Fourier expansion, the mean square error was decreased with soil depth showing 2.30 for the surface temperature, and 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500-cm soil temperatures. The $r^2$ ranged from 0.913 to 0.988. The number of lag days of air temperature by remainder analysis was 0 day for the soil surface temperature, -1 day for 5 to 30-cm soil temperature, and -2 days for 50-cm soil temperature. The number of lag days for precipitaion, snow depth and wind speed was -1 day for the 0 to 10-cm soil temperatures, and -2 to -3 days for the 30 to 50-cm soil teperatures. For the statistical soil temperature prediction model combined with the yearly oscillation terms and meteorological factors as remainder terms considering the lag days obtained above, the mean square error was 1.64 for the soil surfac temperature, and ranged 1.34-0.42 for 5 to 500cm soil temperatures. The model test with 1978 data independent to model development resulted in good agreement with $r^2$ ranged 0.976 to 0.996. The magnitudes of coeffcicients implied that the soil depth where daily meteorological variables night affect soil temperature was 30 to 50 cm. In the models, solar radiation was not included as a independent variable ; however, in a seperated analysis on relationship between the difference(${\Delta}Tmxs$) of the maximum soil temperature and the maximum air temperature and solar radiation(Rs ; $J\;m^{-2}$) under a corn canopy showed linear relationship as $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.902+1.924{\times}10^{-3}$$ Rs for leaf area index lower than 2 $${\Delta}Tmxs=0.274+8.881{\times}10^{-4}$$ Rs for leaf area index higher than 2.

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Growth Model of Common Ice Plant (Mesembryanthemum crystallinum L.) Using Expolinear Functions in a Closed-type Plant Production System (완전제어형 식물 생산 시스템에서 선형 지수 함수를 이용한 Common Ice Plant의 생육 모델)

  • Cha, Mi-Kyung;Kim, Ju-Sung;Cho, Young-Yeol
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.493-498
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this study was to make growth and yield models for common ice plant (Mesembryanthemum crystallinum L.) using expolinear functional equations in a closed-type plant production system. Three-band radiation type fluorescent lamps with a 12-hours photoperiod were used, and the light intensity was $200{\mu}mol{\cdot}m^{-2}{\cdot}s^{-1}$. Nutrient film systems with three layers were used for plant growth. Environmental conditions, such as air temperature, relative humidity and $CO_2$ concentration were controlled by an ON/OFF operation. Leaf area, shoot fresh and dry weights, light use efficiency of common ice plant as function of days after transplanting, accumulative temperature and accumulative radiation were analyzed. Leaf area, shoot fresh and dry weights per area were described using an expolinear equation. A linear relationship between shoot dry and fresh weights was observed. Light use efficiency of common ice plant was $3.3g{\cdot}MJ^{-1}$ at 30 days after transplanting. It is concluded that the expolinear growth model can be a useful tool for quantifying the growth and yield of common ice plant in a closed plant production system.

Countermeasure and Outbreak Mechanism of Cochlodinium polykrikoides red tide 1. Environmental characteristics on outbreak and disappearanceof C. polykrikoides bloom (Cochlodinium polykrikoides 적조 발생기작과 대책 1. Cochlodinium polykrikoides 적조 발생과 소멸의 환경특성)

  • Park, Young-Tae;Kim, Young-Sug;Kim, Kui-Young;Park, Jong-Soo;Go, Woo-Jin;Jo, Yeong-Jo;Park, Seong-Yoon;Lee, Young-Sik
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.259-264
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    • 2001
  • Typhoon and neap tide on Cochlodinium polykrikoides bloom and water temperature on disappearance of C. polykrikoides bloom were investigated to elucidate the outbreak mechanism of C. polykrikoides blooms at Naro and Namhae coastal area in South Sea of Korea. The first observation of C. polykrikoides blooms were observed when thermocline was disappeared by typhoon, tide, etc. The first blooms of C. polykrikoides were observed on neap tide or before one day from neap tide in 1996-1998 and 2000. However, thermocline was disappeared by typhoon in 1994 and 1999, the first blooms were observed early 12-30 day than 1996-1998 and 2000. The main reason of disappearance of C. polykrikoides blooms after typhoon on 1997-2000 seems to be other environmental change by typhoon rather than low water temperature. In the future, the first C. polykrikoides bloom will be appear around the first neap tide of latter part of August with breaking down of thermocline, but if the thermocline be collapsed by typhoon in July, the C. polykrikoides bloom will be appear at beginning of August. The outbreak of C. polykrikoides blooms will be explain as follows: The vegetative cells, which was germinated by environmental change or already exist in surface water at low level, input to the surface water, and then nutrients and trace metals which were suppled from out side of C. polykrikoides bloom area inflow to surface. The vegetative cells are growth by the nutrients and trace metals at suitable environmental conditions e.g. water temperature, salinity, and sufficient light.

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Diffusion equation model for geomorphic dating (지형연대 측정을 위한 디퓨젼 공식 모델)

  • Lee, Min Boo
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.285-297
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    • 1993
  • For the application of the diffusion equation, slope height and maximum slope angle are calculated from the plotted slope profile. Using denudation rate as a solution for the diffusion equation, an apparent age index can be calculated, which is the total amount of denudation through total time. Plots of slope angle versus slope height and apparent age index versus slope height are useful for determining relative or absolute ages and denudation rates. Mathematical simulation plots of slope angle versus slope height can generate equal denudation-rate lines for a given age. Mathematical simulations of slope angle versus age for a given slope height, for equal denudation-rate at a particular profile site, and for comparing to other sites having controlled ages.

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