• Title/Summary/Keyword: 이변량 포아송모형

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Prediction of K-league soccer scores using bivariate Poisson distributions (이변량 포아송분포를 이용한 K-리그 골 점수의 예측)

  • Lee, Jang Taek
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.1221-1229
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    • 2014
  • In this paper we choose the best model among several bivariate Poisson models on Korean soccer data. The models considered allow for correlation between the number of goals of two competing teams. We use an R package called bivpois for bivariate Poisson regression models and the data of K-league for season 1983-2012. Finally we conclude that the best fitted model supported by the AIC and BIC is the bivariate Poisson model with constant covariance. The zero and diagonal inflated models did not improve the model fit. The model can be used to examine home-away effect, goodness of fit, attack and defense parameters.

Moments of the Bivariate Zero-Inflated Poisson Distributions (이변량 영과잉-포아송 분포의 적률)

  • Kim, Kyung-Moo;Lee, Sung-Ho;Kim, Jong-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.47-56
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    • 1998
  • Zero-Inflated Poisson models are mixed models of the Poisson and Bernoulli models. Recently Zero-Inflated Poisson distributions have been used frequently rather than previous Poisson distributions because the developement of industrial technology make few defects in manufacturing process. It is important that univariate Zero-Inflated Poisson distributions are extended to bivariate distributions to generalize the multivariate distributions. In this paper we proposed three types of the bivariate Zero-Inflated Poisson distributions and obtained these moments. We compared the three types of distributions by using the moments.

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Inferences for the Changepoint in Bivariate Zero-Inflated Poisson Model (이변량 영과잉-포아송모형에서 변화시점에 관한 추론)

  • Kim, Kyung-Moon
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.319-327
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    • 1999
  • Zero-Inflated Poisson distributions have been widely used for defect-free products in manufacturing processes. It is very interesting to check the shift after the unknown changepoint. If the detectives are caused by the two different types of factor, we should use bivariate zero-inflated model. In this paper, likelihood ratio tests were used to detect the shift of changes after the changepoint. Some inferences for the parameters in this model were made.

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The Effects of Dispersion Parameters and Test for Equality of Dispersion Parameters in Zero-Truncated Bivariate Generalized Poisson Models (제로절단된 이변량 일반화 포아송 분포에서 산포모수의 효과 및 산포의 동일성에 대한 검정)

  • Lee, Dong-Hee;Jung, Byoung-Cheol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.585-594
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    • 2010
  • This study, investigates the effects of dispersion parameters between two response variables in zero-truncated bivariate generalized Poisson distributions. A Monte Carlo study shows that the zero-truncated bivariate Poisson and negative binomial models fit poorly wherein the zero-truncated bivariate count data has heterogeneous dispersion parameters on dependent variables. In addition, we derive the score test for testing the equality of the dispersion parameters and compare its efficiency with the likelihood ratio test.

Analysis of Violent Crime Count Data Based on Bivariate Conditional Auto-Regressive Model (이변량 조건부자기회귀모형을이용한강력범죄자료분석)

  • Choi, Jung-Soon;Park, Man-Sik;Won, Yu-Bok;Kim, Hag-Yeol;Heo, Tae-Young
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.413-421
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    • 2010
  • In this study, we considered bivariate conditional auto-regressive model taking into account spatial association as well as correlation between the two dependent variables, which are the counts of murder and burglary. We conducted likelihood ratio test for checking over-dispersion issues prior to applying spatial poisson models. For the real application, we used the annual counts of violent crimes at 25 districts of Seoul in 2007. The statistical results are visually illustrated by geographical information system.

Testing for Overdispersion in a Bivariate Negative Binomial Distribution Using Bootstrap Method (이변량 음이항 모형에서 붓스트랩 방법을 이용한 과대산포에 대한 검정)

  • Jhun, Myoung-Shic;Jung, Byoung-Cheol
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.341-353
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    • 2008
  • The bootstrap method for the score test statistic is proposed in a bivariate negative binomial distribution. The Monte Carlo study shows that the score test for testing overdispersion underestimates the nominal significance level, while the score test for "intrinsic correlation" overestimates the nominal one. To overcome this problem, we propose a bootstrap method for the score test. We find that bootstrap methods keep the significance level close to the nominal significance level for testing the hypothesis. An empirical example is provided to illustrate the results.

Bivariate reliability models with multiple dynamic competing risks (다중 동적 Competing Risks 모형을 갖는 이변량 신뢰성 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Juyoung;Cha, Ji Hwan
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.711-724
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    • 2016
  • Under variable complex operating environment, various factors can affect the lifetimes of systems. In this research, we study bivariate reliability models having multiple dynamic competing risks. As competing risks, in addition to the natural failure, we consider the increased stress caused by the failure of one component, external shocks, and the level of stress of the working environment at the same time. Considering two reliability models which take into account all of these competing risks, we derive bivariate life distributions. Furthermore, we compare these two models and also compare the distributions of maximum and minimum statistics in the two models.

A new sample selection model for overdispersed count data (과대산포 가산자료의 새로운 표본선택모형)

  • Jo, Sung Eun;Zhao, Jun;Kim, Hyoung-Moon
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.733-749
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    • 2018
  • Sample selection arises as a result of the partial observability of the outcome of interest in a study. Heckman introduced a sample selection model to analyze such data and proposed a full maximum likelihood estimation method under the assumption of normality. Recently sample selection models for binomial and Poisson response variables have been proposed. Based on the theory of symmetry-modulated distribution, we extend these to a model for overdispersed count data. This type of data with no sample selection is often modeled using negative binomial distribution. Hence we propose a sample selection model for overdispersed count data using the negative binomial distribution. A real data application is employed. Simulation studies reveal that our estimation method based on profile log-likelihood is stable.