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http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2014.25.6.1221

Prediction of K-league soccer scores using bivariate Poisson distributions  

Lee, Jang Taek (Department of Applied Statistics, Dankook University)
Publication Information
Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society / v.25, no.6, 2014 , pp. 1221-1229 More about this Journal
Abstract
In this paper we choose the best model among several bivariate Poisson models on Korean soccer data. The models considered allow for correlation between the number of goals of two competing teams. We use an R package called bivpois for bivariate Poisson regression models and the data of K-league for season 1983-2012. Finally we conclude that the best fitted model supported by the AIC and BIC is the bivariate Poisson model with constant covariance. The zero and diagonal inflated models did not improve the model fit. The model can be used to examine home-away effect, goodness of fit, attack and defense parameters.
Keywords
Bivariate Poisson distribution; K-league; zero and diagonal inflated models;
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Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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