• 제목/요약/키워드: 위험특성

검색결과 3,445건 처리시간 0.034초

Recidivism Follow-Up Study on Sex offenders under Electronic Monitoring (성범죄 전자감독대상자들에 대한 재범추적 연구)

  • Lee, SeungWon;Lee, SueJung;Seo, HyeRan
    • Korean Journal of Forensic Psychology
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.15-33
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    • 2021
  • In this study, we analyzed the difference in survival rates of those subject to electronic supervision of sex crimes based on the tracking of the period of recidivism and whether they were recidivism, and wanted to confirm the ability of the criminal record to predict recidivism. The criteria for recidivism were defined as cases where a conviction was confirmed due to a criminal case that occurred during the execution of electronic monitoring, and the date of recidivism was the date of occurrence of a case that was confirmed guilty. A total of 122 re-offenders were used in the analysis, and all of them were charged with electronic supervision for committing sex crimes. Studies have confirmed that the subjects commit the most recidivism within three years. In addition, in this study, the difference in survival rate between groups was analyzed after classifying mixed and sex recidivism cases. The number of members was 88 for the mixed recidivism group and 34 for the sex recidivism group. The analysis confirmed that both groups had the most recidivism within three years. There was a slight difference between the survival rate of the mixed recidivism group and the survival rate of the sex recidivism group. So the Log Rank Test and the Generalized Wilcoxon Test were conducted, but no statistically significant differences were identified(Wilcoxon statistic = 2.326, df = 1, p = .13, Log Rank = 1.345, df = 1, p = .25). Next, a Cox Regression analysis was performed to confirm the ability of the criminal record to predict recidivism. As a result, the number of criminal records(sex offense, violent crime) have been confirmed to be a good predictor of recidivism(X2=27.33, df=1, p< .001). As a result, the recidivism rate is gradually decreasing due to the implementation of the electronic monitoring. However, the duration of recidivism required by sex offenders in high-risk groups was found to be rather short. Currently, security measures against felons are being strengthened, so it is necessary to select high-risk groups. Therefore, based on the related studies, the characteristics of high-risk groups and the results of recidivism studies will be used as a basis for disposal within the criminal justice system, which will play a major role in granting objectivity.

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Development of disaster severity classification model using machine learning technique (머신러닝 기법을 이용한 재해강도 분류모형 개발)

  • Lee, Seungmin;Baek, Seonuk;Lee, Junhak;Kim, Kyungtak;Kim, Soojun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제56권4호
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    • pp.261-272
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    • 2023
  • In recent years, natural disasters such as heavy rainfall and typhoons have occurred more frequently, and their severity has increased due to climate change. The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) currently uses the same criteria for all regions in Korea for watch and warning based on the maximum cumulative rainfall with durations of 3-hour and 12-hour to reduce damage. However, KMA's criteria do not consider the regional characteristics of damages caused by heavy rainfall and typhoon events. In this regard, it is necessary to develop new criteria considering regional characteristics of damage and cumulative rainfalls in durations, establishing four stages: blue, yellow, orange, and red. A classification model, called DSCM (Disaster Severity Classification Model), for the four-stage disaster severity was developed using four machine learning models (Decision Tree, Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, and XGBoost). This study applied DSCM to local governments of Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi Province province. To develop DSCM, we used data on rainfall, cumulative rainfall, maximum rainfalls for durations of 3-hour and 12-hour, and antecedent rainfall as independent variables, and a 4-class damage scale for heavy rain damage and typhoon damage for each local government as dependent variables. As a result, the Decision Tree model had the highest accuracy with an F1-Score of 0.56. We believe that this developed DSCM can help identify disaster risk at each stage and contribute to reducing damage through efficient disaster management for local governments based on specific events.

Case study on flood water level prediction accuracy of LSTM model according to condition of reference hydrological station combination (참조 수문관측소 구성 조건에 따른 LSTM 모형 홍수위예측 정확도 검토 사례 연구)

  • Lee, Seungho;Kim, Sooyoung;Jung, Jaewon;Yoon, Kwang Seok
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • 제56권12호
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    • pp.981-992
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    • 2023
  • Due to recent global climate change, the scale of flood damage is increasing as rainfall is concentrated and its intensity increases. Rain on a scale that has not been observed in the past may fall, and long-term rainy seasons that have not been recorded may occur. These damages are also concentrated in ASEAN countries, and many people in ASEAN countries are affected, along with frequent occurrences of flooding due to typhoons and torrential rains. In particular, the Bandung region which is located in the Upper Chitarum River basin in Indonesia has topographical characteristics in the form of a basin, making it very vulnerable to flooding. Accordingly, through the Official Development Assistance (ODA), a flood forecasting and warning system was established for the Upper Citarium River basin in 2017 and is currently in operation. Nevertheless, the Upper Citarium River basin is still exposed to the risk of human and property damage in the event of a flood, so efforts to reduce damage through fast and accurate flood forecasting are continuously needed. Therefore, in this study an artificial intelligence-based river flood water level forecasting model for Dayeu Kolot as a target station was developed by using 10-minute hydrological data from 4 rainfall stations and 1 water level station. Using 10-minute hydrological observation data from 6 stations from January 2017 to January 2021, learning, verification, and testing were performed for lead time such as 0.5, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 hour and LSTM was applied as an artificial intelligence algorithm. As a result of the study, good results were shown in model fit and error for all lead times, and as a result of reviewing the prediction accuracy according to the learning dataset conditions, it is expected to be used to build an efficient artificial intelligence-based model as it secures prediction accuracy similar to that of using all observation stations even when there are few reference stations.

Development of Social Entrepreneurship Multidimensional Model and Framework: Focusing on the Cooperation Orientation of Social Enterprises (사회적기업가정신 다차원 모형 및 프레임워크: 사회적기업의 협력지향성을 중심으로)

  • Cho, Han Jun;Sung, Chang Soo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • 제18권2호
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2023
  • The purpose of this study is to identify the unique entrepreneurial behavioral attributes of social enterprises that are distinct from for-profit enterprises at the organizational level, derive a social entrepreneurship model that reflects the unique characteristics of social enterprises as strategic decision-making and organizational behavioral tendencies. In order to effectively achieve the purpose of this study, previous studies were reviewed, and qualitative studies were conducted using the grounded theory method based on this. In this study, social entrepreneurship was identified as five sub-factors through a series of analysis processes, and 'Social value orientation; Innovativeness; Pro-activeness; Risk taking; Cooperation orientation' was newly proposed. It also proposed a new social entrepreneurship framework that integrates and explains the multidimensional model of social entrepreneurship by reviewing and connecting the relationships between each sub-factor of the research model. The 'social entrepreneurship framework' classified the social entrepreneurship model into 'pro-social motivation', 'pro-social behavior', and 'entrepreneurial behavior' attributes and explained them by linking them with each sub-factor that constitutes social entrepreneurship. The most remarkable difference between this study and previous studies is that it identified and added 'Cooperation orientation' as a sub-factor constituting social entrepreneurship from the organizational-level behavioral point of view. Through this study, 'Cooperation orientation' was identified as a major behavioral tendency for social enterprises to materialize pro-social motivation, strengthen the economic foundation of business activities, and improve the efficiency of business operations. 'Cooperation orientation' is a major behavioral tendency that strengthens the legitimacy of business activities between pro-social motivation and profit-seeking of social enterprises, improves the performance of social value creation activities, and overcomes the difficulties of resource constraints through cooperation with the outside and improves operational efficiency. In addition, it was confirmed that 'Cooperation orientation' is a major behavioral tendency of social enterprises that is manifested simultaneously in social value-oriented activities and entrepreneurial activities pursuing profit. The 'Cooperation orientation' newly identified in the study supplements the previous research, increases the explanatory power of the theory of social entrepreneurship, and provides the basis for theoretical expansion to subsequent researchers.

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Anura Call Monitoring Data Collection and Quality Management through Citizen Participation (시민참여형 무미목 양서류 음성신호 수집 및 품질관리 방안)

  • Kyeong-Tae Kim;Hyun-Jung Lee;Won-Kyong Song
    • Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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    • 제38권3호
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    • pp.230-245
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    • 2024
  • Amphibians, sensitive to external environmental changes, serve as bioindicator species for assessing alterations or disturbances in local ecosystems. It is known that one-third of amphibian species within the order Anura are at risk of extinction due to anthropogenic threats such as habitat destruction and fragmentation caused by urbanization. To develop effective protection and conservation strategies for anuran amphibians, species surveys that account for population characteristics are essential. This study aimed to investigate the potential for citizen participation in ecological monitoring using the mating calls of anura species. We also proposed suitable quality control measures to mitigate errors and biases, ensuring the extraction of reliable species occurrence data. The Citizen Science project was carried out nationwide from April 1 to August 31, 2022, targeting 12 species of anura amphibians in Korea. Citizens voluntarily participated in voice signal monitoring, where they listened to anura species' mating calls and recorded them using a mobile application. Additionally, we established a quality control process to extract reliable species occurrence data, categorizing errors and biases from citizen-collected data into three levels: omission, commission, and incorrect identification. A total of 6,808 observations were collected during the citizen participation in anura species vocalization monitoring. Through the quality control process, errors and biases were identified in 1,944 (28.55%) of the 6,808 data. The most common type of error was omission, accounting for 922 cases (47.43%), followed by incorrect identification with 540 cases (27.78%), and commission with 482 cases (24.79%). During the Citizen Science project, we successfully recorded the mating calls of 10 out of the 12 anuran amphibian species in Korea, excluding the Asian toads (Bufo gargarizans Cantor), Korean brown frog (Rana coreana). Difficulties in collecting mating calls were primarily attributed to challenges in observing due to population decline or discrepancies between the breeding season of non-emergent individuals and the timing of the citizen science project. This study represents the first investigation of distribution status and species emergence data collection through mating calls of anura species in Korea based on citizen participation. It can serve as a foundation for designing future bioacoustic monitoring that incorporates citizen science and quality control measures for citizen science data.

Betweenness Centrality-based Evacuation Vulnerability Analysis for Subway Stations: Case Study on Gwanggyo Central Station (매개 중심성 기반 지하철 역사 재난 대피 취약성 분석: 광교중앙역 사례연구)

  • Jeong, Ji Won;Ahn, Seungjun;Yoo, Min-Taek
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • 제44권3호
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    • pp.407-416
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    • 2024
  • Over the past 20 years, there has been a rapid increase in the number and size of subway stations and underground structures worldwide, and the importance of safety for subway users has also continuously grown. Subway stations, due to their structural characteristics, have limited visibility and escape routes in disaster situations, posing a high risk of human casualties and economic losses. Therefore, an analysis of disaster vulnerabilities is essential not only for existing subway systems but also for deep underground facilities like GTX. This paper presents a case study applying a betweenness centrality-based disaster vulnerability analysis framework to the case of Gwanggyo Central Station. The analysis of Gwanggyo Central Station's base model and various disaster scenarios revealed that the betweenness centrality distribution is symmetrical, following the symmetrical spatial structure of the station, with high centrality concentrated in the central areas of basement levels one and two. These areas exhibited values more than 220% above the average, indicating a high likelihood of bottleneck phenomena during evacuation in disaster situations. To mitigate this vulnerability, scenarios were proposed to distribute evacuation flows concentrated in the central areas, enhancing the usability of peripheral areas as evacuation routes by connecting staircases continuously. This modification, when considered, showed a decrease in centrality concentration, confirming that the proposed addition of evacuation paths could effectively contribute to dispersing the flow of evacuation in Gwanggyo Central Station. This case study demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed framework for assessing evacuation vulnerability in enhancing subway station user safety and can be effectively applied in disaster response and management plans for major underground facilities.

Medical Radiation Exposure Dose of Workers in the Private Study of the Job Function (의료기관 방사선 종사자의 직무별 개인피폭선량에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Chun-Goo;Oh, Ki-Baek;Park, Hoon-Hee
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2011
  • Purpose: With increasing medical use of radiation and radioactive isotopes, there is a need to better manage the risk of radiation exposure. This study aims to grasp and analyze the individual radiation exposure situations of radiation-related workers in a medical facility by specific job, in order to instill awareness of radiation danger and to assist in safety and radiation exposure management for such workers. Materials and Methods: From January 1, 2010 December 31, 2010, medical practitioners working in the radiation is classified as a regular personal radiation dosimetry, and subsequently one year 540 people managed investigation department to target workers, dose sectional area, working period, identify the job function-related tasks for a deep dose, respectively, the annual average radiation dose were analyzed. Frequency analysis methods include ANOVA was performed. Results: Medical radiation workers in the department an annual radiation dose of Nuclear and 4.57 mSv a was highest, dose zone-specific distribution of nuclear medicine and in the 5.01~19.05 mSv in the high dose area distribution showed departmental radiation four of the annual radiation dose of Nuclear and 7.14 mSv showed the highest radiation dose. More work an average annual radiation dose according to the job function related to the synthesis of Cyclotron to 17.47 mSv work showed the highest radiation dose, Gamma camera Cinema Room 7.24 mSv, PET/CT Cinema Room service is 7.60 mSv, 2.04 mSv in order of intervention high, were analyzed. Working period, according to domain-specific average annual dose of radiation dose from 10 to 14 in oral and maxillofacial radiology practitioners as high as 1.01~3.00 mSv average dose showed the Department of Radiology, 1-4 years, 5-9 years, respectively, 1.01 workers~8.00 mSv in the range of the most high-dose region showed the distribution, nuclear medicine, and the 1-4 years, 5-9 years 3.01~19.05 mSv, respectively, workers of the highest dose showed the distribution of the area in the range of 10 to 14 years, Workers at 15-19 3.01~15.00 mSv, respectively in the range of the high-dose region were distributed. Conclusion: These results suggest that medical radiation workers working in Nuclear Medicine radiation safety management of the majority of the current were carried out in the effectiveness, depending on job characteristics has been found that many differences. However, this requires efforts to minimize radiation exposure, and systematic training for them and for reasonable radiation exposure management system is needed.

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A Study on the Individual Radiation Exposure of Medical Facility Nuclear Workers by Job (의료기관 핵의학 종사자의 직무 별 개인피폭선량에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Chun-Goo;Oh, Ki-Baek;Park, Hoon-Hee;Oh, Shin-Hyun;Park, Min-Soo;Kim, Jung-Yul;Lee, Jin-Kyu;Na, Soo-Kyung;Kim, Jae-Sam;Lee, Chang-Ho
    • The Korean Journal of Nuclear Medicine Technology
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.9-16
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: With increasing medical use of radiation and radioactive isotopes, there is a need to better manage the risk of radiation exposure. This study aims to grasp and analyze the individual radiation exposure situations of radiation-related workers in a medical facility by specific job, in order to instill awareness of radiation danger and to assist in safety and radiation exposure management for such workers. Materials and Methods: 1 January 2007 to 31 December 2009 to work in medical institutions are classified as radiation workers Nuclear personal radiation dosimeter regularly, continuously administered survey of 40 workers in three years of occupation to target, Imaging Unit beautifully, age, dose sector, job function-related tasks to identify the average annual dose for a deep dose, respectively, were analyzed. The frequency analysis and ANOVA analysis was performed. Results: Imaging Unit beautifully three years the annual dose PET and PET/CT in the work room 11.06~12.62 mSv dose showed the highest, gamma camera injection room 11.72 mSv with a higher average annual dose of occupation by the clinical technicians 8.92 mSv the highest, radiological 7.50 mSv, a nurse 2.61 mSv, the researchers 0.69 mSv, received 0.48 mSv, 0.35 mSv doctors orderly, and detail work employed the average annual dose of the PET and PET/CT work is 12.09 mSv showed the highest radiation dose, gamma camera injection work the 11.72 mSv, gamma camera imaging work 4.92 mSv, treatment and safety management and 2.98 mSv, a nurse working 2.96 mSv, management of 1.72 mSv, work image analysis 0.92 mSv, reading task 0.54 mSv, with receiving 0.51 mSv, 0.29 mSv research work, respectively. Dose sector average annual dose of the study subjects, 15 people (37.5%) than the 1 mSv dose distribution and 5 people (12.5%) and 1.01~5.0 mSv with the dose distribution was less than, 5.01~10.0 mSv in the 14 people (35.0%), 10.01~20.0 mSv in the 6 people (15.0%) of the distribution were analyzed. The average annual dose according to age in occupations that radiological workers 25~34 years old have the highest average of 8.69 mSv dose showed the average annual dose of tenure of 5~9 years in jobs radiation workers in the 9.5 mSv The average was the highest dose. Conclusion: These results suggest that medical radiation workers working in Nuclear Medicine radiation safety management of the majority of the current were carried out in the effectiveness, depending on job characteristics has been found that many differences. However, this requires efforts to minimize radiation exposure, and systematic training for them and for reasonable radiation exposure management system is needed.

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Studies on the Chilling Injury of Rice seedlings. 1. Characterization of Chilling Injury & Recovery Different Leaf Stages (수도의 유초기 냉해에 관한 연구 1. 유묘기 엽령별 냉해발현 및 회복양태)

  • Kwon, Y.W.; Kim, J.H.;Ahn, S.B.
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • 제24권1호
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    • pp.11-24
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    • 1979
  • To characterize elastic and plastic chilling injury, rice seedlings grown at 28/$16^{\circ}C$ day/night temp. under 20K lux (13hrs.) in a phytotron were subjected to a 11/$6^{\circ}C$, 20K lux condition for 2, 4, 6 or 8 days at 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5th leaf-stage, respectively, followed by further growth under 28/$16^{\circ}C$condition till 30th day after seeding. Japonica variety Jinheung and Chulwon No.1 survived almost 100% without any significant , discoloration and death of leaves due to chilling even under the chilling of 8 days at all seedling ages tested. Tongil and Yushin, varieties from Indica x Japonica cross, showed increasing discoloration of leaves and death of plants with increase in chilling intensity. The longest chilling duration shown seedling death less than 5% was 4, 6, 1, 4, 8 days for Tongil, and 6, 6, 1, 2, 2, days for Yushin at 1, 2, 3, 5th leaf-stage, respectively. The degree of discoloration and death of leaves or suppression of height growth was not explicitly related to seedling death or the dry weight reduction. The degree of seedling death or dry weight reduction could differentiate chilling tolerance of varieties and seedling ages, but somewhat differently. Reduction in dry weight due to chilling occurred even without any visible injury or seedling death. These suggest that both the degree of seedling death and reduction in dry weight should be considered in the test of varieties for chilling tolerance. Combined evaluation of seedling death and dry weight reduction indicated the most susceptible seedling age to chilling injury to be 1 to 2nd leaf-stage for Jinheung, 2 to 3rd leaf-stage for Chulwon No.1, 3rd leaf- stage for Tongil and Yushin, respectively.

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A Study on Industries's Leading at the Stock Market in Korea - Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability- (산업의 주식시장 선행성에 관한 실증분석 - 자산간 수익률 예측 가능성 -)

  • Kim Jong-Kwon
    • Proceedings of the Safety Management and Science Conference
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    • 대한안전경영과학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.355-380
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    • 2004
  • I test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability in Korea. Using thirty-six industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, I establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as semiconductor, electronics, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to one month. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry's ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals because information diffuses only gradually across asset markets. Traditional theories of asset pricing assume that investors have unlimited information-processing capacity. However, this assumption does not hold for many traders, even the most sophisticated ones. Many economists recognize that investors are better characterized as being only boundedly rational(see Shiller(2000), Sims(2201)). Even from casual observation, few traders can pay attention to all sources of information much less understand their impact on the prices of assets that they trade. Indeed, a large literature in psychology documents the extent to which even attention is a precious cognitive resource(see, eg., Kahneman(1973), Nisbett and Ross(1980), Fiske and Taylor(1991)). A number of papers have explored the implications of limited information- processing capacity for asset prices. I will review this literature in Section II. For instance, Merton(1987) develops a static model of multiple stocks in which investors only have information about a limited number of stocks and only trade those that they have information about. Related models of limited market participation include brennan(1975) and Allen and Gale(1994). As a result, stocks that are less recognized by investors have a smaller investor base(neglected stocks) and trade at a greater discount because of limited risk sharing. More recently, Hong and Stein(1999) develop a dynamic model of a single asset in which information gradually diffuses across the investment public and investors are unable to perform the rational expectations trick of extracting information from prices. Hong and Stein(1999). My hypothesis is that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. This hypothesis relies on two key assumptions. The first is that valuable information that originates in one asset reaches investors in other markets only with a lag, i.e. news travels slowly across markets. The second assumption is that because of limited information-processing capacity, many (though not necessarily all) investors may not pay attention or be able to extract the information from the asset prices of markets that they do not participate in. These two assumptions taken together leads to cross-asset return predictability. My hypothesis would appear to be a very plausible one for a few reasons. To begin with, as pointed out by Merton(1987) and the subsequent literature on segmented markets and limited market participation, few investors trade all assets. Put another way, limited participation is a pervasive feature of financial markets. Indeed, even among equity money managers, there is specialization along industries such as sector or market timing funds. Some reasons for this limited market participation include tax, regulatory or liquidity constraints. More plausibly, investors have to specialize because they have their hands full trying to understand the markets that they do participate in

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