• Title/Summary/Keyword: 위험분담형

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Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.35 no.4
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

A Study on Risk Sharing of PPI Project Demand Risk (민간투자사업 수요위험 분담 방식에 관한 연구)

  • Shin, Sung-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.102-109
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    • 2012
  • One of key success factors in PPI(Public Private Investment) is the structure of risk sharing between the public and the private, and the determination mechanism of fair return to private participants relative to the risk that private participants undertake. In Korea, two basic types of PPI exist. One is BTO and the other is BTL. In BTO, most risks are taken by the private whereas the opposite is the case in BTL. No intermediate form exists. As a result, BTO type projects had difficulty in attracting private participants because of the excessive risks. In this study, one intermediate form is studied where demand risk is shared between the public and the private. In the setting where the public authority takes all the project revenues and then pays ladder type payments to private participants depending upon the level of project revenues, appropriate level of fixed payments is endogenously derived using the real option pricing model. From the fixed payments, expected investment returns are calculated based upon a certain distributional assumption. The results of this study is expected to help introducing diverse forms of PPI in Korea.

A Study on the Application of Construction Management Delivery System by Characteristics of Facility (건설사업관리 발주방식의 시설물 특성에 따른 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Gee, Hyoung-Kwon;Kang, Hyun-Wook;No, Jae-Deuk;Kim, Yong-Su
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • 2008.11a
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    • pp.449-454
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of this study is to analyze, applications of the construction management delivery systems according to characteristics of facilities. The adapted research method is to selected four mall in the capital region and then divided them into two groups: CM for Fee or CM at Risk. After analyze each applications and administrations, it could propose proper applications of CM for fee according to CM at Risk. The results of this study are as follows: 1) the CM for Fee was suitable for the projects focused on completing on time and constructing the effective business plan of quality control, and 2) the CM at Risk was suitable for the projects concentrated on the cost reduction through shorten the construction time and the related businesses on quality control.

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A Study on Efficiency of Mixed Model (BTO+BTL) for Public-Private Partnership Projects (민간투자사업 혼합방식(BTO+BTL)의 효율성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Do-Il;Jin, Run-Zhi;Hyun, Chang-Taek
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.53-63
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    • 2012
  • Korean Public-Private Partnership, mainly implemented using BTO (Build-Transfer-Operate) and BTL (Build-Transfer-Lease) methods, has contributed in increasing benefits of the people by providing the needed public services in a timely and efficient manner. It has also induced flexible national fiscal management. However, in addition to the repeal of the Minimum Revenue Guarantee (MRG) program in 2009, changes in business environment including recent financial crisis aggravated financial situation in pursing PPPs, resulting in significant contraction of BTO projects. Therefore, the new methods are to be suggested and applied to overcome this situation. This paper seeks to find ways to apply "Mixed Model," characterized as the compound of BTO and BTL, two different implementation methods of PPPs, as an enhanced burden-sharing mechanism.

Risk Factors of Electrical Fire at the Panelboard and Investigation of Field Conditions (분전반에서의 전기화재 위험요소 및 현장실태조사 분석)

  • Kim, Hyang-Kon;Kim, Dong-Woo;Lee, Ki-Yeon;Choi, Yong-Sung;Choi, Chung-Seog;Choi, Hyo-Sang
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2008.07a
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    • pp.2206-2207
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    • 2008
  • 본 논문에서는 분전반에서의 화재 위험 요소와 화재위험 요소에 대한 현장 실태조사 결과를 분석하였다. 분전반에서의 화재 위험 요소는 크게 전기적 요인, 환경적 요인, 물리적 요인으로 나눌 수 있으며 전기적 요인으로는 단락, 과부하(과전류), 접촉불량, 전류 불평형 등이 있으며 환경적 요인으로는 수분(염분 등), 먼지(분진, 목분, 철분 등), 온도(고온) 등에 의한 절연파괴, 기기 손상, 오동작 등이 있다. 물리적 요인으로는 기계적인 진동이나 충격 등에 의한 전기적 접속부의 이완에 의한 발열 등을 들 수 있다. 이러한 화재 위험 요인에 대하여 현장실태조사를 실시한 결과, 일부 분전반에서 내부에 먼지 등 이물질이 차단기, 전선, 단자대 등의 표면에 부착되어 있음을 확인할 수 있었으며 수분이나 염분 등의 영향으로 전극간 절연물 표면의 열화로 화재가 발생할 가능성이 있다. 또한, 적외선 열화상 분석결과, 일부 차단기 단자에서 국부 발열이 관측되었으며, 부하 분담의 불평형에 의한 발열도 확인되었다. 이러한 위험요인에 의한 화재 예방을 위하여 규정된 전선 굵기의 사용과 적정 체결압력의 확보, 상간 전류 불평형을 줄이기 위한 부하 분담의 조정이 필요하다. 향후, 분전반에서의 전기화재, 감전사고 등 전기재해의 예방을 위하여 지속적이고 체계적인 유지관리는 물론 사고 발생 전에 이상 징후를 사전에 감지하여 조치를 취할 수 있도록 하는 기술의 개발과 현장 적용이 요구된다.

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A Study of the Optimal Location of Detention Dam (홍수저류지 효과 극대화를 위한 최적위치 선정방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Yong-Myung;Jun, In-Bae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.445-449
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    • 2011
  • 치수대책이 취약한 중 소규모 하천 상류유역에 갑작스런 홍수가 발생될 경우 홍수파뿐만 아니라 토석류에 의한 2차적인 피해도 발생하고 있고 이러한 홍수피해를 방지하기 위한 구조적 대책으로 홍수저류지를 도입하였다. 치수대책이 취약한 중 소규모 하천 상류유역에서 홍수저류지의 효과를 극대화하기 위해서는 적용지역에 대한 홍수저류지의 적절한 배치가 매우 중요하다. 먼저, 대상유역의 주요보호대상 지점 즉, 목표지점(Taget Point)을 결정하고 지형 및 지질, 산사태 위험도, 수몰현황, 지역경제 등을 고려하여 홍수저류지 설치 후보지를 다수 선정하였다. 그리고 강우 및 홍수분석, 저수지 홍수추적 등을 실시하여 목표지점을 보호할 수 있도록 홍수저류지간의 조합을 통해 최적 위치 및 개소수를 결정하였고 대상하천의 계획홍수량 즉, 하도분담량 이상의 호우에 대하여 분담할 수 있도록 홍수저류지 설치 개소수를 제한하였다. 그리고 여기서 결정한 홍수 저류지가 목표지점뿐만 아니라 대상 유역의 홍수저감에 얼마나 기여를 할 수 있는지 유역전체를 대상으로 수문학적으로 검토하였다. 홍수저류지는 현재 국가의 치수대책의 일환인 면중심의 유역치수계획, 선택적 방어, 홍수량할당제, 예방위주의 치수대책 등과 함께 하고 있는 유역분담형 치수 방안으로서 유역상류의 중소하천에 1차적인 홍수방어의 훌륭한 대안이 될 수 있다.

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Evaluation of Allowable Channel Conveyance for Comprehensive Flood Control Plan (유역종합치수계획 수립시 하도의 홍수소통능력 평가)

  • Lee, Hee-Chul;Lee, Jae-Hyung;Jeon, Se-Ho;Lee, Yoon-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2006.05a
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    • pp.154-158
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    • 2006
  • 유역종합치수계획 수립시 유역내 해당 지점에서의 하도와 유역에 대한 홍수량 배분은 원활한 목표연도 홍수량 처리, 치수안전도 증대, 치수경제성 등을 고려하여 하도 및 유역에서 실현 가능한 모든 홍수방어대안 등을 검토하여 적절한 홍수량이 분담되도록 결정되어야 한다. 그러나 기존 문헌 및 연구에서 제시하고 있는 홍수량 배분에 대한 규정은 구체적이지 못하고 추상적이며 계획수립시 하도 홍수소통능력에 대한 객관적인 기준과 고려없이 하도분담량을 설정하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 하도 홍수소통능력 평가에 대한 합리적인 기준설정이 필요하다고 판단되어 기존의 문헌 및 사례 등을 종합 분석하여 하도의 홍수소통능력 평가기법을 개발하였다. 하도 홍수소통능력의 판단기준은 하천내 유수의 소통능력은 물론, 하도내 수위가 높음으로 인해 내수배제가 원활히 이루어지지 못해 발생하는 홍수피해를 최소화할 수 있도록 5단계로 구분하였다. 그리고 제내지의 토지이용현황, 자산분포와 인구밀집도 등을 고려한 평가기준이 될 수 있도록 하였다. 내수에 대한 하도 홍수소통능력 검토시 도시하천의 경우에는 홍수피해 위험이 높고 자산이 많이 분포되어 있는 하천구간은 소파기준에 해당하는 침수심 0.5m 기준을 적용하였다. 그리고, 농경지하천의 경우는 농경지 침수시간에 따른 작물 피해액 기준을 도시하천의 개념과 유사하게 적용하여 홍수피해잠재능이 높은 지역에 위치한 하천의 경우는 침수지속시간이 24시간 이내가 되도록 적용하였다.

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Safety Evaluation of Net-type Debris Flow Protection System Using Numerical Analysis (수치해석을 이용한 네트형 토석류 방호시스템의 안전성 평가)

  • Lee, Eung-Beom;Lim, Hyun-Taek;Whang, Dae-Won;Lim, Chang-Su;Kim, Yong-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.157-168
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    • 2018
  • Recently, the occurrence of typhoons and heavy rainfall is increasing due to climate change. This causes increase in possibility of landslide damages in rural areas. However, in reality, the precise engineering stability assessment studies are still insufficient. Therefore, in order to reduce the landslide damages and effectively manage mountainous areas, the development of disaster prevention techniques is needed. In this study, to analyze the shock absorbing effect of the buffer-spring during application of dynamic impact load in the debris flow protection system, numerical analysis is carried out for each free field of the buffer-spring and the load sharing ratio of the buffer-spring is also examined. In addition, the field applicability is verified by comparison of the tensile strength of the conventional buffer-spring and the wedge type buffer-spring on various magnitudes of dynamic impact load. As a result of the study, it is found that the net-type debris protection system is effective to mitigate loss of properties and human lifes during landslide.

The Possibility and the Way to Introduce of Venture Debt to Encourage Growth of Ventures (벤처기업의 성장 촉진을 위한 벤처부채의 가능성과 도입방안)

  • Hong, Jong Soo;Na, Sumi;Park, Jaesung James
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.17-25
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    • 2020
  • Venture debt is a prominent funding tool to promote scale-up of ventures. In the growth stage, venture firms that need large-scale funding can accelerate their growth by leveraging venture debt without diluting their shares, while venture capitals can quickly recollect their investments by accelerating the growth of the ventures they invest. By supplying venture debt, banks can diversify their asset primarily concentrated on loans, and improve the return on assets. As in the case of Silicon Valley Bank, a leading venture lender, closer cooperation between the two agents is essential to supply venture debt. One is the venture capital, an equity capital supplier, and the other is the bank, a debt capital supplier. To this end, we propose "credit risk sharing venture loans" and "venture loan pooling". The former encourages banks' participation in the venture debt market where the manager of Korean Fund of Funds, KVIC and policy guarantee schemes such as KODIT and KIBO screen or partially absorbe the risks inherent in venture loans. The latter reduces the burden of banking on individual venture loans through securitization.

A study on the risks of terrorism raids in domestic occurring through of the Islamic State of IS terrorist groups (IS테러단체의 공습확대에 따른 자국 내 테러발생 위험성에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sei-Youen;Yun, Gyeng-Hui
    • Korean Security Journal
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    • no.42
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    • pp.277-308
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    • 2015
  • Recently the Japanese hostage crisis with Syria, the stake of the pilots IS of the terror group's affiliates like Kim incident occurred while urinarado IS not an exception anymore in connection with terrorism will not be able to do. In addition, particularly against terrorist groups worldwide, IS being a hero has been marginalized and wants uncritical drugs aimed at teens, such as dialog or game IS through SNS joined nationals as well as other countries, while recommending domestic complaints until the people power or luck, put the older brother can sign up for any terror group IS the terrorist group's terrorist acts while making the environment a national mark by foreigners or immigrants can be caused by the situation. Therefore, in this study, this IS serious for the terrorist acts of the terrorist group, IS due to the expansion of the domestic terrorist group caused the terror raids of about the dangers of foreign countries to review the case, and the incident has sought ways to prevent and respond to the rapporteur. The result IS due to the expansion of the domestic terrorist group caused the terror raids of the dangers of sex exists and that causes a response to the implements are as follows. First of all, IS brokering for the site of the terrorist group's approach to counter-terrorism Act will be a, and the next, each agency and terror for the information exchange and cooperation and serves as a reexamination of terror occurred through the quick and appropriate measures should be the language. Finally, the duties related to terrorism for teens, especially education and strengthen the safety program development and against terrorism should be carried out.

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