• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.24 no.2
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• pp.253-268
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• 2011

In this paper, we estimate systematic risk from credit migration (or transition) matrices under "Asymptotic Single Risk Factor" model. We analyzed transition matrices issued by KR(Korea Ratings) and concluded that systematic risk implied on credit migration somewhat coincide with the real economic cycle. Especially, we found that systematic risk implied on credit migration is better than that implied on the default rate. We also emphasize how to conduct a stress test using systematic risk extracted from transition migration. We argue that the proposed method in this paper is better than the usual method that is only considered for the conditional probability of default(PD). We found that the expected loss critically increased when we explicitly consider the change of credit quality in a given portfolio, compared to the method considering only PD.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.15 no.12
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• pp.471-482
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• 2015

Situational Crisis communication theory (SCCT), one of the major crisis communication theories, suggests that crisis managers have to choose the most effective crisis response strategy in accordance to the crisis type. However, there's a controversy over whether this theory is practically applicable in Korea. Therefore, this study analyzed statements of apology to see if companies in Korea are actually taking different response strategy according to the types of crisis. According to the result of analysis on 244 apology statements published in the newspapers from 2012 to spring of 2015, adaptive response strategy was mostly taken no matter what the crisis type was. In conclusion, there's a discrepancy in crisis response strategy between the theory suggested in SCCT and the current practices in Korea. This conclusion can contribute to devising an appropriate application of SCCT in Korea and to develop a more Korea relevant theory.

• The Journal of Bigdata
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.27-39
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• 2017

The importance of online communication is getting increased by the rapid growth of smartphone supply and Social Network Service (SNS) use. Catching up with the trend, firms are actively use SNS to improve brand image, promote products, and communicate with customer. On the one hand, SNS is the channel for firms' marketing activities, but on the other, it is also the channel where the events related to the firms propagate in real time. Firms are led to unexpected state of crisis, when events are quickly spread out on SNS. Then firms are assessed their image by the way they deal with the state of crisis. This paper proposes to figure out user response on SNS according to each crisis response strategies by analyzing event-related twitter data when crisis situations of firms arise. We classify crisis response strategies into response attitude, defensive and accommodative response, and response speed, fast and slow response. This paper suggests optimal crisis response strategy to firms regarding state of crisis propagated on SNS.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• v.32 no.6
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• pp.126-133
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• 2018

Korea has been preparing and operating crisis management standardized manuals so that over 30 disaster types that need to be managed at the national level can be selected and systematically managed. This study analyzed the crisis alert levels of two standard manuals related to the case with reference to the contents of the Framework Act on the Management of Disaster and Safety and National Crisis Management Basic Guidelines. According to the Act and Guidelines, crisis alerts are issued before a crisis or disaster, but the criteria of crisis alerts of the two manuals showed that the national crisis had already occurred and the disaster occurred due to a marine vessel accident at the serious level. In addition, the results of timing of issuance of crisis alert were reviewed. If the signs can be identified, a crisis alert may be issued prior to the occurrence of the incident, but a crisis alert cannot be issued when an incident occurs without a sign. In the case of an incident where there are no signs, but there is a possibility of spreading to a national level disaster, the disaster management supervision agency could issue a crisis alert.

• Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.55-63
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• 2023

In this paper, we propose a function and service of the Disaster Crisis Alert Management System that automatically analyzes the situation judgment criteria to issue a disaster crisis alert and a plan to operate in the National Disaster Management System(NDMS). In the event of a disaster, a crisis alert(interest-caution-alert-serious) is issued according to the crisis alert level. In order to automatically analyze and determine the crisis alert level, first, data collection, crisis alert level analysis, crisis alert level judgment, and disaster crisis alert management system that expresses the crisis alert level by spatial scale(province, city, district) were implemented. The crisis alert level was analyzed and expressed in two ways by applying the intelligent crisis alert level(determination of regional sensitivity, risk level, and crisis alert level) and the crisis alert standard of the crisis management manual(province-level standard setting). Second, standard metadata, linkage of situation information of target) and API standards for data provision are presented to jointly utilize data linkage and crisis alert data of the disaster and safety data sharing platform so that it can be operated within the NDMS.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.565-573
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• 2017

The ex-post evaluation of governmental crisis management is an important issues since it is necessary to prepare for the future disasters and becomes the cornerstone of our success as well. In this paper, we propose a data cube model with data mining techniques for the analysis of governmental crisis management strategies and ripple effects of foot-and-mouth(FMD) disease using the online news articles. Based on the construction of the data cube model, a multidimensional FMD analysis is performed using on line analytical processing operations (OLAP) to assess the temporal perspectives of the spread of the disease with varying levels of abstraction. Furthermore, the proposed analysis model provides useful information that generates the causal relationship between crisis response actions and its social ripple effects of FMD outbreaks by applying association rule mining. We confirmed the feasibility and applicability of the proposed FMD analysis model by implementing and applying an analysis system to FMD outbreaks from July 2010 to December 2011 in South Korea.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.456-456
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• 2023

본 연구에서는 위성영상 상황판연계·표출시스템 적용을 위한 SNS 주민참여 콘텐츠를 개발하고, 재난대응 표준위기관리절차 기반의 주민참여정보 활용방안을 제시하고자 하였다. 재난상황관리에 있어 SNS의 활용을 통한 주민참여 확대적용 방안을 모색하고자 재난 대비·대응 관련 공공 및 정부부처에서 활용 중인 SNS 채널을 조사하였으며, 상황관리에 SNS를 적용한 선행사례를 분석하였다. 이를 기반으로 SNS를 적용한 예방안전 및 피해복원 확대 적용 방안을 제시하였으며, 신속한 위기대응을 위한 보조적인 의사결정 지원도구로서의 콘텐츠를 제안하였다. 먼저, 예방안전 및 피해복원 확대 적용을 위해 SNS에 주민들이 작성한 게시글을 웹 크롤링과 데이터 마이닝을 통해 분석하여 재난 상황인지와 상황판단 및 피해범위 추정에 활용하는 방안을 제시하였고, 이를 상황판연계·표출시스템에서 표출하기 위한 예시화면을 설계하였다. 또한, 연구 1차년에 수행했었던 위성영상을 활용한 재난상황대응 표준위기관리절차 중 위성영상정보에 주민참여정보를 연계·중첩하여 재난의 전조감지 단계부터 확산양상 및 피해범위를 확인하고, 재난기록을 분석하여 추후 발생된 재난에 선제적으로 대비할 수 있는 방안을 제시하였다. 그러나, 주민참여 기반 SNS 콘텐츠 적용을 위한 우선 해결사항으로는 재난상황판단 시, 정보의 정확성과 신뢰성 측면에서 의사결정을 위한 보조도구로서 활용을 할 것인지에 대한 중앙재난안전상황실과의 충분한 협의가 필요하며, 상황실에서 해당 콘텐츠를 활용하게 될 경우, SNS 정보의 행정망 방화벽 허용가능여부에 대한 추가 분석설계가 필요한 상황이다. 이를 위해 금년 연구수행에서 상황실 실무자 수요조사를 통해 SNS 정보 활용에 대한 반영여부를 결정할 예정이다.

• 해운
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• no.1 s.59
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• pp.19-22
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• 2009

사상최고의 호황기와 최악의 침체기를 동시에 경험했던 세계 해운업계는 2009년에 글로벌 금융위기가 어떻게 전개될 것인지에 대해 촉각을 곤두세우고 있다. 지난해 9월 미국 리먼브러더스의 파산으로 야기된 글로벌 금융위기가 전세계로 확산되면서 해운시황이 5개월 사이에 최악의 상황으로 곤두박질했기 때문이다. 긍정적인 전망 보다는 부정적인 전망이 우세한 가운데 포스코경영연구소에서‘글로벌 금융위기 전개방향 및 파급영향’을 분석했다. 다음은 그 내용을 정리한 것이다.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.5
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• pp.124-136
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• 2016

Because of continuous outbreaks of disasters and emergencies, the importance of government crisis management has been increased. This study analyzed the Korean government's response messages during the 2015 MERS outbreak, which was an emergency issue that showed a great ripple effect. According to the three diffusion phases of MERS, the semantic network analysis of 134 press releases on the central and local governments' official web sites of MERS was conducted. The results showed that during the early stage of MERS, the central government misperceived the crisis situation, and as a result, specific and enough information was not provided promptly regarding a list of hospitals with known MERS exposure and prevention method. During MERS diffusion and decline stages, Seoul and Gyeonggi-do provided more specific and actionable messages than the central government. This study was meaningful in that it analyzed and evaluated crisis communication messages during an outbreak of the infectious disease. The findings of this study provide useful implications for government officials in their crisis management and communication strategy during emergency risk situations.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.15 no.7
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• pp.460-476
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• 2015

The purpose of this study is to provide practical implications on government crisis management strategies and on the use of SNS in crisis management. Specifically, this study analyzed Ministry of Drug and Food Safety's responses to paraben toothpaste issue, media coverage of paraben toothpaste issue, and public responses to paraben toothpaste issue. Through textual analysis and the network analysis of 45 news articles and 645 tweets, this study found that Ministry used one-way communication strategy and mostly negative issues regarding Ministry's crisis response strategies were diffused via the media and Twitter. This study was meaningful in that it highlighted the importance of media relations and use of SNS in crisis management. The findings of this study provide useful implications for government officials and PR practitioners in their crisis management and communication strategy.