• Title/Summary/Keyword: 월별패턴

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Seasonal Precipitation Prediction using the Global model (전지구 모델 GME를 이용한 계절 강수 예측)

  • Kim, In-Won;Oh, Jai-Ho;Hong, Mi-Jin;Huh, Mo-Rang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.351-351
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    • 2011
  • 최근 지구온난화와 더불어 이상기후가 대두됨에 따라 기상 예측이 더욱더 중요시되고 있다. 또한 이전부터 가뭄 및 홍수와 같은 기상현상으로 인한 피해 사례가 빈번하였으며, 이로 인하여 물 관리의 어려움을 겪고 있다. 한 예로 이상기후가 유난히 잦았던 2010년 여름철 경우 평년보다 발달한 북태평양고기압의 영향으로 여름철 92일 가운데 81일의 전국 평균기온이 평년보다 높게 나타났다. 또한 강우 일수가 평년에 비해 7.4일 많은 44.2일을 기록하였으며, 국지성 집중호우 사례가 빈번하였다. 또한 8월 9일 발생한 태풍 `뎬무'를 포함해서 한 달 동안 3개의 태풍이 한반도에 영향을 끼치는 이례적인 사례가 발생하였다. 따라서 본 연구는 이러한 기상재해에 따른 물 관리를 장기적으로 대비하고자 고해상도 전지구 모델 GME를 이용하여 2010년 여름철 강수 예측을 실시하였다. 강수 예측에 사용된 전지구 모델 GME는 기존의 카테시안 격자체계를 가진 모델과 달리 전구를 삼각형으로 구성된 20면체로 격자화 한 Icosahedral-hexagonal grid 격자체계로 구성되어 있어, 해상도 증가에 용이할 뿐만 아니라, HPC(High Performance Computing)환경에서 효율성이 높은 장점을 가지고 있다. 본 계절 예측을 수행함에 있어 발생하는 잡음을 최소화하고자, Time-lag 기법을 이용하여 5개의 앙상블 멤버로 구성되어있으며, 이를 비교 분석하기위해 Climatology를 이용하여 총 10개의 앙상블 멤버로 규준실험을 수행하였다. 선행 연구에 따르면 1개월 이상의 장기 적분의 경우 초기조건보다 외부 강제력이 더 중요한 역할을 한다고 연구된 바 있다. (Yang et al., 1998) 특히 계절 변동성의 경우 대기-해양간의 상호작용에 의해 지배되며, 이를 고려하여 본 연구는 해수면 온도를 경계 자료로 사용하여 계절 예측을 수행하였다. 앞서 말한 실험 계획을 바탕으로 하여 나온 결과를 통해 동아시아지역 및 한반도 도별 강수 및 온도 변수에 대해 순별 및 월별 카테고리맵 분석을 실시하여 한눈에 보기 쉽게 나타냈다. 또한 주요 도시별 강수량 및 온도의 시계열 분석을 실시하여 시간이 지남에 따라 나타나는 변동성을 확인하였다. 계절 예측 결과에서 온도의 경우 평년보다 높게 나타났으며, 이는 실제 온도 예측과도 유사한 패턴을 가졌다, 강수의 경우 7월부터 8월 중순까지 평년보다 다소 적게 모의되었으며, 8월 하순경 회복하는 것으로 예측하였다. 따라서 본 계절 강수 예측은 다소 역학 모델이 가지는 한계를 가지고 있으나, 실제와 비교하여 어느 정도의 경향성이나 패턴에 있어 유사성을 보임을 확인하였으며, 이를 장기적 차원의 물관리를 함에 있어 참고 및 활용 가능할 것으로 예상한다.

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A Case Study of GHG Reduction Based on Electricity Consumption Pattern of Individual Rooms : In case of Seoul National University (실별 전력 소비패턴에 의거한 온실가스 감축 잠재량 산정 - 서울대학교 관악 캠퍼스를 대상으로 -)

  • Kim, Seok-Young;Park, Moonseo;Lee, Hyun-Soo;Kim, Sooyoung;Jung, Hye-Jin
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2013
  • As GHG target management is introduced in Korea, designated establishment takes responsibilities to reduce more than 30% of expected GHG emission until 2020. Although decreasing GHG has been requested to universities which consume great amount of energy, there are difficulties to apply high cost countermeasures. Therefore, this research suggest a low cost, easily-applicable energy saving method, and derive potential GHG reduction amount in the case of SNU, Kwan-ak campus. First of all, 11 rooms of different use were chosen as the samples, and energy consumption in each room was measured. Standard models for each room were built through researching on the electric devices in each room. Moreover, energy consumption was computed for each devices through analyzing the pattern of electricity consumption. 32 GHG reduction technology and action program were chosen, and they were applied to the standard models for individual rooms. Through multiplying energy reduction rate of each program to energy consumption of each electric device, maximum energy reduction of each electric device is derived. Through that, Maximum GHG reduction for individual rooms and each month and the total GHG reduction capacity of Kwan-ak campus were computed. It was found out that approximately $5,311tCO_2$-eq can be reduced, when reduction technology and action program suggested by this research are applied. It appeared 24.48% of requested reduction amount to SNU can be reduced, till 2016.

Long-term prediction of streamflow for water resource management in Geumho River watershed (중장기 하천유량 관리를 위한 금호강 유역의 유출량 예측)

  • Kim, Han Na;Park, Jung Eun;Kang, Shin Uk;Lee, Eul Rae
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2015.05a
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    • pp.416-416
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    • 2015
  • 기후변화는 미래 강수량 변동을 야기하여 하천유량 관리에 큰 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 중장기 하천유량 관리를 위하여 금호강 유역을 대상으로 SWAT 모형을 이용하여 중장기 하천유량을 예측하였다. 임하댐 상류지역의 2008~2012년 유량자료에 대하여 보정 완료된 SWAT 모형을 기반으로, 지역기후모형(RCM)인 HadGEM3-RA모형을 활용한 IPCC 제5차 보고서 RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 시나리오를 적용하였다. 금호강 표준유역별 기후변화에 의한 영향을 모의하기 위하여 편이보정(Bias Correction)방법을 적용하였으며, 금호강 유역 내 과거 30년(1975~2005년, Baseline) 기상자료와 비교하여 통계적인 유사성을 가지도록 보정을 실시하였다. 기후변화 시나리오 적용결과는 S1(2011~2040년), S2(2041~2070년), S3(2071~2099년)으로 분할하여 월별, 계절별, 연도별 미래 강수량과 기온을 분석하였다. 분석 결과, RCP 4.5 시나리오의 경우 봄철(3~5월)의 강수량은 기준년도에 비해 약 57%가 증가하였으나, 가을철(6~8월)에는 7.9% 감소하였으며, 첨두 강수시기는 8~9월에서 6~7월로 이동하였다. 평균기온은 각 구분 시기별 $0.2^{\circ}C$, $1.1^{\circ}C$, $1.8^{\circ}C$ 정도 상승할 것으로 예측되었다. RCP 8.5 시나리오에서는 기준년도 대비 강우량은 봄철에 61% 증가, 가을철에는 14.9% 감소하는 것으로 모의되었다. 평균기온은 약 $0.4^{\circ}C$, $2.1^{\circ}C$, $4.2^{\circ}C$ 정도 상승하는 것으로 나타났다. 기후변화에 따른 유출량 결과 비교는 2001~2010년을 기준으로 하였으며, RCP 4.5 시나리오에서는 S1, S2, S3 시기별 각각 -10.9%, -7%, -3.6% 감소하였으며, RCP 8.5 시나리오에서는 약 -12.3%, 4.9%, -1.2% 변동하는 것으로 나타냈다. 금호강 유역 전반에 걸쳐 유출량이 감소하는 추세를 보였으며, 특히 본류에 비해 지류유역의 건천화가 심해지는 양상을 보였다. 또한 현재에 비해 여름철 유출패턴 시기가 앞당겨져 봄철 유량이 증가하고 겨울철에 감소하는 경향을 보이고 있다. 기후변화로 인한 수문패턴의 변화로 현재 하천유량관리의 변화가 필요할 것으로 판단되며, 향후 본 연구결과를 바탕으로 물수지 분석을 추가하여 유지유량 만족을 위한 해당유역의 이수기 유량관리 방안 연구를 수행할 예정이다.

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Analysis of dieting practices in 2016 using big data (빅데이터를 통한 2016년의 다이어트 실태 분석)

  • Jung, Eun-Jin;Chang, Un-Jae;Jo, Kyungae
    • Korean Journal of Food Science and Technology
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    • v.51 no.2
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    • pp.176-181
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    • 2019
  • The aim of this study was to analyze dieting practices and tendencies in 2016 using big data. The keywords related to diet were collected from the portal site Naver and analyzed through simple frequency, N-gram, keyword network, and analysis of seasonality. The results showed that exercise had the highest frequency in simple frequency analysis. However, diet menu appeared most frequently in N-gram analysis. In addition, analysis of seasonality showed that the interest of subjects in diet increased steadily from February to July and peaked in October 2016. The monthly frequency of the keyword highfat diet was highest in October, because that showed the 'Low Carbohydrate High Fat' TV program. Although diet showed a certain pattern on a yearly basis, the emergence of new trendy diets in mass media also affects the pattern of diet. Therefore, it is considered that continuous monitoring and analysis of diet is needed rather than periodic monitoring.

The Patterns of Garic and Onion price Cycle in Korea (마늘.양파의 가격동향(價格動向)과 변동(變動)패턴 분석(分析))

  • Choi, Kyu Seob
    • Current Research on Agriculture and Life Sciences
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    • v.4
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    • pp.141-153
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    • 1986
  • This study intends to document the existing cyclical fluctuations of garic and onion price at farm gate level during the period of 1966-1986 in Korea. The existing patterns of such cyclical fluctuations were estimated systematically by removing the seasonal fluctuation and irregular movement as well as secular trend from the original price through the moving average method. It was found that the cyclical fluctuations of garic and onion prices repeated six and seven times respectively during the same period, also the amplitude coefficient of cyclical fluctuations showed speed up in recent years. It was noticed that the cyclical fluctuations of price in onion was higher than that of in garic.

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Antimicrobial Drug Resistance and R-plasmid of Salmonella species (Salmonella 균속의 항균제 내성 및 R-plasmid)

  • Lee Myung-Won;Chung Tae-Wha;Lee Yun-Tai;Kang Jeung-bok
    • Journal of environmental and Sanitary engineering
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    • v.3 no.2 s.5
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    • pp.23-41
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    • 1988
  • Two hundred and eighty-six strains of Salmonella species were isolated from the twelve provincial institutes of health and 19 general hospitals of urban and rural areas in Korea from January to December in 1986. The antimicrobial susceptibility test of these cultures was done by the method of agar diluton. The resistance frequency of Salmonella cultures was $29.7\%$. Among these resistant cultures, the most provalent resistance pattern of Salmonella was ampicillin, carbenicillin, chloramphenicol, tetracycline, streptomycin, and its resistance frequency was $15\%$. In plasmid profile of resistance strains, average number of plasmid harboring in Salmonella was 1-4 and molecular weight of plasmid ranged 1.6 to 70 megadalton (Md.). Plasmid pattern of strains isolated from Seoul and Kang-won showed the same or similar profiles. Plasmid pattern was identical in the same resistance pattern.

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Effect of Supplementary Feeding Levels on Productivity and Grazing Intensity in Grazing Elk stags(Cervus canadensis) (보충사료 급여수준이 엘크 수사슴의 생산성 및 방목강도에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jinwook;Lee, Sang Hoon;Lee, Sung Soo;Jeon, Dayeon;Kim, Sung Woo;Yun, Yeong Sik;Kim, Sang Woo;Park, Hyung Soo;Kim, Kwan Woo
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.61-67
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    • 2019
  • This study was conducted to investigate the effect of supplementary feeding levels on livestck and forage productivity and grazing intensity in Elk stags (Cervus canadensis). A fifteen 2-year-old Elk stags about 195 kg were randomly assigned to one of three dietary treatments (five animals per treatment). The dietary treatments consisted of a feeding concentrate of 1.0% of body weight (T1), 1.5% of body weight (T2) and 2.0% of body weight. Total dry matter intake (TDMI) was increased with increased with an increasing supplementary feeding levels. Average daily gain (ADG) were significantly increased with an increasing supplementary feeding levels (p<0.05) and reached a maximum on July and was lower in spring than autumn. The velvet antler production was no differences among treatment groups. Forage productivity of pasture and crude protein content were highest on May and decreased thereafter, however, crude fiber content was the reversed. The grazing intensity of Elk stags was increased in spring (38 to 59 head per ha) than summer and autumn (13 to 32 head per ha). The average grazing intensity of Elk stags ranged from 21 to 34 head per ha, which is affected by supplementary feeding levels. This result suggests that feeding supplementary diet at 1.5 % of body weight was needed to maintain the stable wight gain in antler growing periods and control the proper grazing intensity of Elk deer stags.

A Neural Network for Long-Term Forecast of Regional Precipitation (지역별 중장기 강수량 예측을 위한 신경망 기법)

  • Kim, Ho-Joon;Paek, Hee-Jeong;Kwon, Won-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.69-78
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    • 1999
  • In this paper, a neural network approach to forecast Korean regional precipitation is presented. We first analyze the characteristics of the conventional models for time series prediction, and then propose a new model and its learning method for the precipitation forecast. The proposed model is a layered network in which the outputs of a layer are buffered within a given period time and then fed fully connected to the upper layer. This study adopted the dual connections between two layers for the model. The network behavior and learning algorithm for the model are also described. The dual connection structure plays the role of the bias of the ordinary Multi-Layer Perceptron(MLP), and reflects the relationships among the features effectively. From these advantageous features, the model provides the learning efficiency in comparison with the FIR network, which is the most popular model for time series prediction. We have applied the model to the monthly and seasonal forecast of precipitation. The precipitation data and SST(Sea Surface Temperature) data for several decades are used as the learning pattern for the neural network predictor. The experimental results have shown the validity of the proposed model.

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Prediction of Rice Yield in Korea using Paddy Rice NPP index - Application of MODIS data and CASA Model - (논벼 NPP 지수를 이용한 우리나라 벼 수량 추정 - MODIS 영상과 CASA 모형의 적용 -)

  • Na, Sang Il;Hong, Suk Young;Kim, Yi Hyun;Lee, Kyoung Do;Jang, So Young
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.29 no.5
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    • pp.461-476
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    • 2013
  • Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model is one of the most quick, convenient and accurate models to estimate the NPP (Net Primary Productivity) of vegetation. The purposes of this study are (1) to examine the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation NPP of the paddy field area in Korea from 2002 to 2012, and (2) to investigate how the rice productivity responded to inter-annual NPP variability, and (3) to estimate rice yield in Korea using CASA model applied to MOderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products and solar radiation. MODIS products; MYD09 for NIR and SWIR bands, MYD11 for LST, MYD15 for FPAR, respectively from a NASA web site were used. Finally, (4) its applicability is to be reviewed. For those purposes, correlation coefficients (linear regression for monthly NPP and accumulated NPP with rice yield) were examined to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the relations. As a result, the total accumulated NPP and Sep. NPP tend to have high correlation with rice yield. The rice yield in 2012 was estimated to be 526.93kg/10a by accumulated NPP and 520.32 kg/10a by Sep. NPP. RMSE were 9.46kg/10a and 12.93kg/10a, respectively, compared with the yield forecast of the National Statistical Office. This leads to the conclusion that NPP changes in the paddy field were well reflected rice yield in this study.

The Community Ecology of Benthic Macrofauna on the Cheokjeon Tidal Flat, Incheon, Korea 2. Spatio-temporal distribution patterns of the major dominant species (인천 송도지역 척전 갯벌 대형저서동물의 군집 생태학 2. 우점종의 시ㆍ공간적인 분포양상)

  • 서인수;홍재상
    • The Sea:JOURNAL OF THE KOREAN SOCIETY OF OCEANOGRAPHY
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.93-105
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    • 2004
  • Spatio-temporal distribution patterns of the major dominant species were assessed from bimonthly monitoring of macrotidal flat in Cheokjeon, Incheon, Korea between September 1990 and July 1992. Overall, macrofauna comprised a total of 111 species, 25,491 inds.136 ㎡. The result of Le Bris index, dominance ranking of the lead-ing species showed that the top 15 species accounting for 74.8% (19,072 inds.) of total density. In Cheokjeon tidal flat, some species were especially habitat-restricted such as genus Nephtys (Annelids; Polychaetes) and Mac-rophthalmus (Crustaceans; Decapods). Based on the density data, the five dominant species were the polychaetes Het-eromastus filiformis, the bivalves Mactra veneriformis and Solen strictus, the brachyurans Macrophthalmus japonicus, the holothuriodeans Protankyra bidentata. The results of one-way ANOVA, mean value of H. filiformis and M. ven-eriformis did not show significant changes with tidal elevation and sediment composition (p>0.05). But, other species (S. strictus, M. japonicus and P. bidentata) showed significant variations (p<0.001). In conclusion, these indicate significant spatial fluctuation with tidal elevation and sediment characteristics in some species.