• Title/Summary/Keyword: 운용 불확실성

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Optimization of Early-phase Ship Design using Set-Based Design and Genetic Algorithm (집합기반설계와 유전자알고리즘을 이용한 초기단계 함정설계 최적화)

  • Park, Jin-Won
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.10
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    • pp.486-492
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    • 2019
  • The system-based approach is needed to select an optimal mix of weapon systems and ship platform among a variety of design alternatives with the uncertainties of the initial required operational capability. In the early-phase design, which included a feasibility study and concept design, it is possible to cause problems when a review of the operational concept, database development, and systematic design are not done, thereby producing uncertain and unstable requirements. To select the best solution without trial-and-error, the U.S. navy has applied the set-based method for the early-phase design of a new ship-to-shore connector. The ship synthesis model plays an important role in applying the set-based method, but only a few countries possess this model and have prohibited this model from being transferred to other countries. This paper suggests a set-based method using a genetic algorithm and decision-making theory through benchmarking existing ship data. The algorithm was verified using the DDG-51 class ship synthesis model to optimize the weapon system design, which has been released for research purposes.

Decision-Making System of UAV for ISR Mission Level Autonomy (감시정찰 임무 자율화를 위한 무인기의 의사결정 시스템)

  • Uhm, Taewon;Lee, Jang-Woo;Kim, Gyeong-Tae;Yang, Seung-Gu;Kim, Joo-Young;Kim, Jae-Kyung;Kim, Seungkeun
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.49 no.10
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    • pp.829-839
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    • 2021
  • Autonomous system for UAVs has a capability to decide an appropriate current action to achieve the goal based on the ultimate mission goal, context of mission, and the current state of the UAV. We propose a decision-making system that has an ability to operate ISR mission autonomously under the realistic limitation such as low altitude operation with high risk of terrain collision, a set of way points without change of visit sequence not allowed, and position uncertainties of the objects for the mission. The proposed decision-making system is loaded to a Hardware-In-the-loop Simulation environment, then tested and verified using three representative scenarios with a realistic mission environment. The flight trajectories of the UAV and selected actions via the proposed decision-making system are presented as the simulation results with discussion.

Optimal Monetary Policy under Regime Switches - the case of US Housing Market - (상태 변환하의 최적 통화 정책 - 미국 주택 시장의 경우 -)

  • Kim, Jangryoul;Lim, Gieyoung
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we address the problem of optimal monetary policy rule in the presence of abrupt shifts in the structure of the economy. To do so, we first estimate a Markov switching model for the US housing price inflation, and find evidence supporting the presence of two distinct regimes for the US housing price inflation. One of the two regimes identified appears 'usual', in that housing price inflation negatively responds to higher real interest rate. The other regime is 'unusual', in that the housing price inflation is positively related with real interest rate. We then solve an optimal control problem of the FRB under the presence of the two regimes thus identified. The optimal policy is 'asymmetric' in that the optimal responses in the 'usual' regime require the FRB to lean against the wind to inflationary pressure, while the FRB is recommended to accommodate it in the unusual regime. It is also found that the optimal degree of responses is more conservative when the FRB acknowledges the uncertainty about future regime.

Indirect Verification of the Icing Test Condition Using Ice Thickness (얼음두께를 이용한 결빙시험조건의 간접 확인기법)

  • Kim, Yoo Kyung;Park, Nameun;Choi, Gio
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.46 no.11
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    • pp.944-951
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    • 2018
  • Artificial icing test and wind tunnel test can be performed to reduce the development period when a rotorcraft is required operation under icing situations. Artificial icing test of the KUH(Korean Utility Helicopter) was performed in advance to verify anti-icing and de-icing performance before natural icing test. Although high-precision sensor, the CCP(Cloud Combination Probe) is used to measure icing test condition parameters such as LWC(Liquid Water Content) and MVD(Median Volume Diameter), the measured values need to be verified in various methods due to the possibility of uncertainties which are the test atmosphere environment, sensor errors, and etc. The calculated LWC from the ice thickness cumulated on the fuselage of the KUH is compared to the measured value by CCP, and the results show the effective indirect method to check the test conditions.

Re-establishing Method of Stability Margin Airworthiness Certification Criteriafor Flight Control System (비행제어시스템 안정성 여유 감항인증 기준 재정립 방안)

  • Kim, Dong-hwan;Kim, Chong-sup;Lim, Sangsoo;Koh, Gi-oak;Kim, Byoung soo
    • Journal of Aerospace System Engineering
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.17-27
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    • 2022
  • A certain level of stability margin airworthiness criteria should be met to secure robustness against uncertainties between the real plant and the model in a flight control system design. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) specification of MIL-F-9490D and airworthiness certification standard of MIL-HDBK-516B uses gain and phase margin criteria of flight control system. However, the same stability margin criteria is applied at all development phases without considering the design maturity of each development phase of the aircraft. Ultimately, a problem arises when the aircraft operation envelope is excessively restricted. This paper proposes the relation of handling qualities and stability margin, and presents re-established stability margin criteria as a development phases and verification methods. The results of the research study are considered to contribute to the verification of the stability margin criteria more flexibly and effectively by applying the method to not only the currently manned developing aircrafts but also the unmanned vehicle to be developed in the future.

Monte Carlo Simulation based Optimal Aiming Point Computation Against Multiple Soft Targets on Ground (몬테칼로 시뮬레이션 기반의 다수 지상 연성표적에 대한 최적 조준점 산출)

  • Kim, Jong-Hwan;Ahn, Nam-Su
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.47-55
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents a real-time autonomous computation of shot numbers and aiming points against multiple soft targets on grounds by applying an unsupervised learning, k-mean clustering and Monte carlo simulation. For this computation, a 100 × 200 square meters size of virtual battlefield is created where an augmented enemy infantry platoon unit attacks, defences, and is scatted, and a virtual weapon with a lethal range of 15m is modeled. In order to determine damage types of the enemy unit: no damage, light wound, heavy wound and death, Monte carlo simulation is performed to apply the Carlton damage function for the damage effect of the soft targets. In addition, in order to achieve the damage effectiveness of the enemy units in line with the commander's intention, the optimal shot numbers and aiming point locations are calculated in less than 0.4 seconds by applying the k-mean clustering and repetitive Monte carlo simulation. It is hoped that this study will help to develop a system that reduces the decision time for 'detection-decision-shoot' process in battalion-scaled combat units operating Dronebot combat system.

Safety Analysis of Storm Sewer Using Probability of Failure and Multiple Failure Mode (파괴확률과 다중파괴유형을 이용한 우수관의 안전성 분석)

  • Kwon, Hyuk-Jae;Lee, Cheol-Eung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.11
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    • pp.967-976
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    • 2010
  • AFDA (Approximate Full Distribution Approach) model of FORM (First-Order Reliability Model) which can quantitatively calculate the probability that storm sewer reach to performance limit state was developed in this study. It was defined as a failure if amount of inflow exceed the capacity of storm sewer. Manning's equation and rational equation were used to determine the capacity and inflow of reliability function. Furthermore, statistical characteristics and distribution for the random variables were analyzed as a reliability analysis. It was found that the statistical distribution for annual maximum rainfall intensity of 10 cities in Korea is matched well with Gumbel distribution. Reliability model developed in this study was applied to Y shaped storm sewer system to calculate the probability that storm sewer may exceed the performance limit state. Probability of failure according to diameter was calculated using Manning's equation. Especially, probability of failure of storm sewer in Mungyeong and Daejeon was calculated using rainfall intensity of 50-year return period. It was found that probability of failure can be significantly increased if diameter is decreased below the original diameter. Therefore, cleaning the debris in sewer pipes to maintain the original pipe diameter should be one of the best ways to reduce the probability of failure of storm sewer. In sewer system, two sewer pipes can flow into one sewer pipe. For this case, probability of system failure was calculated using multiple failure mode. Reliability model developed in this study can be applied to design, maintenance, management, and control of storm sewer system.

New Business Success using Strategic Innovation Strategy: Marine Engine Business and HEMAPT System of the Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. (신규사업성공과 전략적 기술혁신전략: 현대중공업의 엔진사업진출과 HEMAPT시스템 개발)

  • Kim, Wha Young
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2016
  • Firms should seek greater profits and corporate growth through new businesses. New businesses contribute realizing creative economy that creates good jobs, and expanding the company by securing new markets and creating new profits and growth. However, new business is risky management decision-making to have a high failure rate because it involves the adaptation of new business environment and the burden of new investments, including the uncertainty of success in business. Therefore, innovation strategies play important roles for the new business entry, using product innovation, process innovation, business model innovation, disruptive innovation, and strategic innovation, etc. and company will get huge economic results by pushing them into successful business. It is essential that innovation strategy and IT development strategy along with business strategy of a firm are linked, and their strategic alignment is considered to be a critical success factor for new business success. Hyundai Heavy Industries(HHI) pursued marine engine business for the development of precision machinery industry and shipbuilding industry of Korea, and the company recognized the importance of new business strategy, innovation strategy, and IT strategy inter-linked, and pushed strategic alignment boldly. As a result, HHI won the competition in European and Japanese engine manufacturers and climbed into the world's largest engine manufacturer. This study suggests investigating and analyzing a case that HHI succeeded in marine engine business expansion using strategic innovation strategy as a way of the introduction of CNC machine tools and the development of HEMAPT system.

Monetary policy synchronization of Korea and United States reflected in the statements (통화정책 결정문에 나타난 한미 통화정책 동조화 현상 분석)

  • Chang, Youngjae
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.115-126
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    • 2021
  • Central banks communicate with the market through a statement on the direction of monetary policy while implementing monetary policy. The rapid contraction of the global economy due to the recent Covid-19 pandemic could be compared to the crisis situation during the 2008 global financial crisis. In this paper, we analyzed the text data from the monetary policy statements of the Bank of Korea and Fed reflecting monetary policy directions focusing on how they were affected in the face of a global crisis. For analysis, we collected the text data of the two countries' monetary policy direction reports published from October 1999 to September 2020. We examined the semantic features using word cloud and word embedding, and analyzed the trend of the similarity between two countries' documents through a piecewise regression tree model. The visualization result shows that both the Bank of Korea and the US Fed have published the statements with refined words of clear meaning for transparent and effective communication with the market. The analysis of the dissimilarity trend of documents in both countries also shows that there exists a sense of synchronization between them as the rapid changes in the global economic environment affect monetary policy.

Comparison and Optimization of Flux Chamber Methods of Methane Emissions from Landfill Surface Area (매립지 표면의 메탄 발산량 실측을 위한 플럭스 챔버의 방법론적 비교와 최적화)

  • Jeong, Jin Hee;Kang, Su Ji;Lim, Jong Myoung;Lee, Jin-Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.38 no.10
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    • pp.535-542
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    • 2016
  • As one of the most cost-effective methods for surface emission measurements, flux chamber method has been used worldwide. It can be classified into two types: SFC (with slope method) and DFC (with steady-state method). SFC (static flux chamber) type needs only simple equipment and is easy to handle. However, the value of flux might vary with SFC method, because it assumes that the change of concentration in chamber is linear with time. Although more specific equipments are required for DFC (dynamic flux chamber) method, it can lead to a constant result without any ambiguity. We made a self-designed DFC using a small and compact kit, which recorded good sample homogeneity (RSD < 5%) and recovery ( > 90%). Relative expanded measurement uncertainty of this improved DFC method was 7.37%, which mainly came from uncontrolled sweep air. The study shows that the improved DFC method can be used to collect highly reliable emission data from large landfill area.