• Title/Summary/Keyword: 외부사건

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Analysis of Relative Breakage Hazard Rate of Water Mains Using the Proportional Hazards Model (비례위험모형을 이용한 상수관로의 상대적 파손위험율 분석)

  • Park, Su-Wan;Kim, Jung-Wook;Im, Gwang-Chae;Lee, Hyeong-Seok
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.490-494
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구에서는 상수도 배수관로의 내 외부적 특성에 따라 개별관로를 정의하는 방법을 연구대상 지역의 배수관로 파손 데이터베이스에 적용하여 비례위험모형을 구축하였다. 연구에 사용된 자료는 연구대상지역의 배수관로의 제원 및 파손시기를 포함하는 관로 파손데이터베이스, 관로매설지역의 급수인구 및 수압범위에 관한 자료를 포함하는 GRID 데이터베이스와 관로매설지역의 토지개발 정도에 관한 자료를 포함한다. 이러한 자료를 이용하여 관로를 순차적 파손경험에 따라 7개의 생존시간군(STG I $\sim$ VII)으로 구분하고 각 생존시간군에 대한 비례위험모형(Model I $\sim$ VII)을 구축하였다. 이러한 모형을 이용하여 관로의 파손횟수가 증가하는 동안 파손에 영향을 미치는 인자의 변화와 그 효과를 파악하였으며, 또한 추정된 공변수의 위험비율을 분석함으로써 관로의 제원 혹은 매설환경, 급수인구 등에 따른 위험률의 상대적인 변화를 분석하였다. 또한 비례 위험모형의 구축과정에서 관로의 파손에 영향을 미치는 공변수의 비례성 가정을 검토하여 시간종속형 공변수를 모형화하였으며, 모형의 이탈잔차(deviance residual)를 분석하여 모형의 적합성을 검토하였다. 본 연구에서 구축된 비례위험모형에 대해 Shoenfeld 잔차를 이용한 스코어 잔차의 변화(score process)를 검토한 결과, Model I 과 Model II 에 대해서는 공변수의 시간종속 효과가 발견되었다. Model I에 대해서는 관로재질과 급수인구의 영향이 시간에 따라 변하며 Model II에서는 급수인구의 영향만이 시간에 따라 변하는 것으로 나타났다. 한편 Model III $\sim$ Model VII 들에 대해서는 공변수의 영향이 시간에 따라 변하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 각 생존시간군에 대해 관로재질, 토지개발정도, 관로길이 및 급수인구의 변화가 관로의 상대적 누수위험률에 미치는 영향을 상대위험률의 95% 신뢰구간을 고려하여 정량적으로 산정하였고, 시간 종속형 공변수로 모형화된 공변수는 시간에 따른 공변수 영향의 변화를 분석하였다. 순차적 파손사건에 대한 비례위험모형의 구축 결과 생존시간군(STG) I의 기저위험률은 매설 후 대략 450개월까지는 파손 위험률이 '0'에 가까우나 그 이후로 급격히 증가하다가 매설 후 약 700개월에 이르러서는 약간 감소하고 약 850개월 이후에는 다시 급격히 증가한다. STG II의 기저위험률은 첫 번째 파손 후 약 300개월이 되면 위험률이 급격히 증가하는 것으로 나타났다. STG III $\sim$ STG VII의 기저위험률은 이차함수의 형태를 띄며, 특히 STG V, STG VI 및 STG VII의 기저위험률은 욕조형 곡선(bathtub curve)의 형태를 가진다. 각 생존시간군의 기저생존함수의 생존확률 '0.5'에 해당하는 기저중간생존시간에 대한 분석으로부터 파손횟수가 많아질수록 순차적 파손사건 사이의 경과시간은 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 기저생존시간에 대한 경향은 관로의 파손횟수가 많아질수록 관로의 일반적은 내구성은 감소하기 때문인 것으로 분석된다.

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Forming Shop Analysis with Adaptive Systems Approach (적응시스템 접근법을 이용한 조선소 가공공장 분석)

  • Dong-Hun Shin;Jong-Hun Woo;Jang-Hyun Lee;Jong-Gye Shin
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.75-80
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    • 2002
  • In these days of severe struggle for existence, the world has changed a great deal to global and digital oriented period. The enterprises try to introduce new management and production system to adapt such a change. But, if the only new technologies are applied to an enterprise without definite analysis about manufacturing, failure fellows as a logical consequence. Hence, enterprise must analyze manufacturing system definitely and needs new methodologies to mitigate risk. This study suggests that the new approach, which is systems approach for process improvement, is organized to systems analysis, systems diagnosis, and systems verification. Systems analysis analyzes manufacturing systems with object-oriented methodology-UML(Unified Modeling language) from a point of product, process, and resource view. Systems diagnosis identifies the constraints to optimize the system through scientific management or TOC(Theory of constraints). Systems verification shows the solution with virtual manufacturing technique applied to the core problem which emerged from systems diagnosis. This research shows the artifacts to improve the productivity with the above methodology applied to forming shop. UML provides the definite tool for analysis and re-usability to adapt itself to environment easily. The logical tree of TOC represents logical tool to optimize the forming shop. Discrete event simulator-QUEST suggests the tool for making a decision to verify the optimized forming shop.

Zombie, the Subject Ex Nihilo and the Ethics of Infection (좀비, 엑스 니힐로의 주체와 감염의 윤리)

  • Seo, Dong-Soo
    • Journal of Popular Narrative
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.181-209
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    • 2019
  • The purpose of this article is to compare zombie narratives in relation to the Other. In previous research, the view of zombies as post-capitalist soulless consumers or workers has been frequently expressed. But in this article, I wanted to look at zombies as the main cause of the collapse of the world and a new future. First, zombies do not only mean the representation of the consumer in the late capitalist era. Rather, it is an awakening subject desiring the outside of the system. As you can see from the Uncanny's point of view, zombies are something that we should oppress as freaks and monsters that threatened the Other. To be a zombie in this way is to meet one's other self, the "Fundamentals of Humanity," and it is the moment when everything becomes the subject ex nihilo, the new beginning. Second, the concept of infection shows a new ethic. Zombie cannibalism is different from the selfish love of a vampire who sucks a worker's blood. Zombie cannibalism is an infection, which is a model of Christian love for one's neighbor. It is a moment of awakening and the beginning of solidarity. It is on the waiting for the solidarity that the zombie hangs in such a way, and the attack on the human being is an active illusion. Third, the situation of the end of a zombie narrative is another event for newness. The anger of a zombie serves not just to show monsters, but acts as a catalyst that accelerates the world's catastrophes. The anger of zombies is the messianic violence that stops the false world, and presents a new way. The emergence of zombies and the popular response to them embody a desire for the possibility of a new subject and world.

The Interaction Effects of Outside Director Ratio and CEO Duality on Acquisition Performance (사외이사의 비중과 기업 인수합병 성과와의 관계: 최고경영자의 이사회 의장직 겸임에 의한 상호작용 효과)

  • Kim, Phil-Soo;Park, Young-Ryeol;Choe, Soonkyoo
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.10 no.3
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    • pp.85-97
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    • 2015
  • This study examined the effects of outside directors and CEO duality on acquisition strategies and performance of Korean firms in high-technology industry. Based on the resource dependence theory, we focused on the service and resource-dependence roles from board of directors in the process of decision-making of acquisition strategies. In addition, CEO opportunism behavior rises when CEO serves as chairperson of board and induces the negative effects on acquisition performance. Specifically, we investigated the interaction effects between outside directors ratio and CEO duality. For the period of 2004 to 2012, 246 acquisitions of Korean firms in high-technology industry were analyzed to test our intended hypotheses. Our results indicate that there exist positive relationship between outside director ratio and acquisition performance for Korean high-technology firms. Negative associations prevail between CEO duality and performance consequences of acquisitions. While outside director ratio has a positive effect on acquisition performance when there is a presence of CEO duality, negative effect prevail for outside director ratio on acquisition performance in the absence of CEO duality position to hold our interaction hypothesis. The favor of dual structure can be explained with implications referring to unity of command and strong leadership driven from CEO duality that enhances the resource dependence roles of board of directors in the context of high-technology industry acquisition behaviors rendered by Korean firms.

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The Effect of Corporate Governance on Performance of Mergers and Acquisitions in KOSDAQ Market (코스닥시장에서 인수합병에 따른 성과와 소유구조)

  • Cho, Ji-Ho;Jeong, Seong-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.33-61
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    • 2009
  • From the perspective of corporate governance, we examine the acquirers' performance of mergers and acquisitions in KOSDAQ Market. The empirical results of our study show that inside an executive shareholders and outside minor shareholders, affect acquirers' performance in M&A's : the ownership of outside minor shareholders is positively correlated with the performance of acquirers. and, the ownership of insiders, such as that of an executive shareholders, does have significant effect on the performance of M&A's. Since the current literature concludes that the improvement of corporate governance in KOSDAQ Market would enhance the shareholders' wealth, the results of our study implies that outside minor investors, as well as insiders, are playing an important role in the corporate governance.

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A Study on the Changing Factors of the Power Transition among the Gov ernments of Somalia and Terrorisms (소말리아 정부와 테러조직 간 권력구도 변화 영향요인 연구)

  • Lee, Pyo-Kyu
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.137-147
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to summarize the variables for making the power expansion of terrorist organizations possible by analyzing the power transitions among the Somalia governments and terrorisms. For this, I created a framework after extracting the independent variables affecting the power transition using the theories of Hans J. Morgenthau, A.F.K Organski, K.J. Holsti. On the basis of these, I analyzed the power transitions among the organizations from August 2012(the foundation of Federal government) to August 2019. According to the results, the power area of the federal government is extremely narrowed, whereas the power areas of al-Shabaab, ISIS, and neutral conflict are largely expanded. The factors in the framework were embodied as the delay of powerful federal government foundation, the shortage of national military forces, the limitation of effective use of foreign forces, the continuation of cooperation and antagonism among armed terrorist organization, sanctuary environment of terrorists using the Sharia law, advantages of force recruitment resulted from the bad economic conditions, public support suitable for the Somalia environment. All of these factors work the causes of lasting anarchy condition of the federal government of Somalia by making the settlement of conflict against terrorist organizations.

Differences in attributional bias and irrational gambling beliefs between gamblers and non-gamblers (귀인양식과 귀인편향, 비합리적 도박신념에서의 차이: 도박자와 비도박자의 비교)

  • Eun-A Park;Jonghan Yi
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.177-203
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    • 2015
  • The aims of this study were 1) to compare irrational gambling beliefs of gamblers and non-gamblers, 2) to investigate the role of cognitive error on winning probability thinking error, and 3) to examine the relationship between attributional bias and gambling behavior. A total of 248 subjects were recruited for this study. All subjects were classified into non-gamblers, social gamblers and pathological gamblers, and administered self-report questionnaires to measure irrational gambling beliefs, the probability inference error, the attriburional style, and the attributional bias. A pathological gambler group scored highest on irrational gambling beliefs, especially the overestimation of self-ability factor, and a social gambler group and a non-gambler group follow. All three groups scored higher on the magnification of gambling skills than the mean (4.0) of the scale. Pathological gamblers and social gamblers scored higher on the probability thinking error than non-gamblers. Pathological gamblers displayed higher external attribution, lower internal attribution in their daily life events and higher internal attribution in failure situation than social gamblers and non-gamblers. The results indicate that cognitive errors would be a factor that differentiates pathological gamblers from social gamblers and non-gamblers. In predicting gambling behaviors, overestimation of self-ability of irrational gambling beliefs, internal attribution in failure situation, external attribution in daily live event, and probability thinking error were identified as significant factors. It is concluded that a public education about common cognitive bias featured in gamblers might be important in prevention of pathological gambling behaviors.

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Privacy leakage security system research for small physical companies (중소 경호.경비업체의 개인정보 유출 방지를 위한 보안 체계 연구)

  • Kang, Poo-Reum;Lee, DongHwi;Kim, Kuinam J.
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.87-97
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    • 2012
  • Privacy of personal information disclosure incident occurs frequently as a problem to our society's most important and sensitive social agenda is emerging. Personal information is actually more accurate, depending on the type or types of economic value and sensitivity, the quality of the information, because it can cause a spill a serious social threat and systematic personal information protection and management are not carried out and the information society in a big mess can result. Customers my affairs when small guard security companies, especially the sensitive personal information of customers who need to work, the collected information be leaked or the company's trade secrets, are exposed on the outside, it could be a serious threat to a greater problem cause. Small escort guard companies, however, compared with large companies to build its own security system, due to issues such as the extent of funding, staffing shortages, there are many difficulties. Status of Information Security, scale and analyze the characteristics of small escort guard companies occupied by guard security companies in the present study, sleep, look at him in the solution of the practical issues of information protection system laid small guard. Expenses supplier of propose a security system for preventing the leakage of personal information.

A Study on Mitigating Accidents for Liquid Hydrogen (액체수소 사고피해 완화기술에 대한 연구)

  • Jo, Young-Do;Kim, Jin-Jun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.29-33
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    • 2012
  • This paper is an attempt to give a concise overview of the state-of-the-art in the recent liquid hydrogen safety researches with unwanted event progress. The vessel of liquified hydrogen may fail and liquid hydrogen spilled. The hydrogen will immediately start to evaporate above a pool and make a hydrogen cloud. The cloud will disperse and can produce a vapor cloud explosion. The vessel containing the liquid hydrogen may not be able to cope with the boil-off due to heat influx, especially in case of a fire, and a BLEVE may occur. In equipment where it exists as compressed gas, a leak generates a jet of gas that can self-ignite immediately or after a short delay and produce a jet flame, or in case it ignites at a source a certain distance from the leak (delayed ignition), a flash fire occurs in the open and with confinement a deflagration or even detonation may develop. The up-to-date knowledge in these events, recent progress and future research are discussed in brief.

Environment Simulation and Effect Estimation of Space Radiation for COMS Communication Payload (통신해양기상위성 통신 탑재체의 우주 방사선 환경 모사 및 영향 추정)

  • Kim, Seong-Jun;U, Hyeong-Je;Seon, Jong-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.34 no.11
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    • pp.76-83
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    • 2006
  • Space radiation environment for COMS is simulated by NASA AP8/AE8, JPL91 and NRL CREME models, respectively for trapped particle, solar proton and cosmic-ray. The radiation effects on electronic devices in communication payload are also estimated by using simulation results. Dose-depth curve and LET spectrum are calculated for estimating total ionizing dose(TID) effect and single event effect(SEE) respectively. Spherical sector method is applied to dose estimation at each position in the units of communication payload to consider shielding effect of platform and housing. Total ionizing dose at each position varies by 8 times through shielding effect under the same external space radiation environment.