• Title/Summary/Keyword: 오차추정

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Prediction on the Quality of Forage Crop by Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (근적외선 분광법에 의한 사초의 성분추정)

  • Lee, Hyo-Won;Kim, Jong-Duk;Kim, Won-Ho;Lee, Joung-Kyong
    • Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.31-36
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    • 2009
  • This study was conducted to find out an alternative way of rapid and accurate analysis of forage quality. Near reflectance infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to evaluate the possibility of forage analysis and collect 258 samples such as barley for whole crop silage, forage corn and sudangrass from 2002 to 2007. The samples were analyzed for CP (crude protein), CF (crude fiber), ADF (acid detergent fiber), NDF (neutral detergent fiber) and IVTD (in vitro true digestibility), and also scanned using NIRSystem with wavelength from $400{\sim}2,400nm$. Multiple linear regression was used with wet analysis data for developing the calibration model and validate unknown samples. The important index In this experiment was SEC and SEP $r^2$ for CF, CP, NDF, ADF and IVTD in calibration set were 0.70, 0.86, 0.94, 0.94 and 0.89, also 0.47, 0.39, 0.89, 0.90 and 0.61 in validation sample, respectively. The results of this experiment indicates that NIRS was reliable analytical method to assess forage quality, specially in CF, ADF and IVTD, sample should be included for respective forage samples to get accurate result. More robust calibrations can be made to cover every forage samples if added representative sample set.

Detection of Imprinted Quantitative Traits Loci (QTL) for Reproductive and Growth Traits in Region of IGF II Gene on fig Chromosome (돼지 염색체상의 IGF II 유전자 인접 부위에서 번식 및 성장형질에 연관된 Imprinting 양적형질 유전자 좌위(QTL)의 탐색)

  • Lee, Hakkyo
    • Korean Journal of Animal Reproduction
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.295-304
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    • 2001
  • Characterization of quantitative trait loci (QTL) was investigated in the experimental crosses between Berkshire and Yorkshire breed. A total of 525 F$_2$ progenies from 65 matting of F$_1$ Parents were produced. Phenotypic measurements included average daily gain (ADG), average back fat thickness (ABF), and loin eye area (LEA). To identify the presence of QTL for reproductive performance, birth weight (BWT) and body weight at 16 days (16DAY) were included as indirect trait. QTL segregation was deduced using 8 markers assigned to chromosome 2 (SSC2). Quantitative trait locus analyses were performed using interval mapping by regression under line-cross model. Presence of imprinting was tested under the statistical model that separated the expression of paternally and maternally inherited alleles. To set the evidence of QTL presence, significance thresholds were derived by permutation following statistical tests, respectively. Genome scan revealed significant evidence for three quantitative trait loci (QTL) affecting growth and body compositions, of which two were identified to be QTL with imprinting expression mode near the ICF II gene region. For average back fat thickness (ABF), a paternally expressed QTL was found on chromosome 2 (SSC2). A paternally expressed QTL affecting loin eye area (LEA) was found in the region of SSC2 where evidence of imprinted QTL was found for average back fat thickness (ABF). For average daily gain (ADG), QTL expressed with Mendelian mode was found on chromosome 2 (SS2). Also, QTL affecting average daily gain (ADC), was identified to be expressed with Mendelian express mode.

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An Overview on Historical Development in Population Survey System (우리나라 인구 통계 작성제도의 변천에 관한 고찰)

  • 최봉호
    • Korea journal of population studies
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.5-25
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    • 1997
  • The historical study reveals that our ancestors had maintained a system which could produce data on the number of population and households as well as on their characteristics. For example, such data on age structure of the population, number of births, number of deaths by age & sex, number of in & out migrants were found in an historical document for the year 755. The main purposes of maintaining the system at that time were taxation and conscription. As the system evolves, another function of identifying the legal status of people was also added. Looking into the figures for those days reveals that ommission rates of the number of population and households were high. Thus, in an effort to obtain a reliable data, the annual population survey system was introduced as of 1 September 1896. This date is now cerebrated as the Statistics Day. Since then, the survey system has been diversified. At the present time, there are three major data sources which produce the statistics on population and households: Civil Registration System (vital statistics), Resident Registratiton System (migration statistics) and Population Census. However, these three systems are found to have some problems to produce the accurate data. There are some inherent problems in the registration systems such as problems in its coverage, accuracies in contents and timeliness in reporting the vital events and publishing the results. The population census has also non-sampling errors such as errors in coverage, response and non-response. Apart from the above mentioned problems, there are also conflicting problems arised from having different three data source. We can find some overlapping problems in laws and difficulties in comparative studies between regions. In the future, these problems should be taken into consideration for the improvement of the quality of statistics on population and households.

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Stage-Discharge Rating Curve Model Development and Modification (하천 수위-유량곡선식 개선 및 모형개발)

  • Chang, Ki-Hwan;Lee, Jae-Hyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.4 s.153
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    • pp.271-280
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    • 2005
  • The goal of this study is to recommend a new type of stage-discharge rating curve ($Q=p(h-e)^{\beta}-{\gamma}$) useful for satisfying divergence, and one other seemingly irresolvable problem related to exited rating curves, while also extending this rating curve model. The problem of divergence is that during the finding of the CZF (cease-to-zero flow) parameter e and while minimizing the sum of total errors of the estimated curve, the exponential parameter ${\beta}$ become an abnormally large value. The insoluble problem is that when the value e is greater then the recorded minimum at the gauged stage, it is impossible to have a negative logarithm value (h-e). The two problems above can be satisfied by adapting the control value ${\gamma}$, which affects the reduction of ${\gamma}$ and gives us the possibility of controlling (h-e) over zero. The study results show that the effects of parameter ${\gamma}$ are very similar to that of e when conducting physical and sensitivity analyses. This system can be used towards developing a new stage-discharge rating curve for river discharge, for use in evaluating the acceptability of existing stage-discharge rating curves generated by using hydrologic analyses at all stations.

Combining Bias-correction on Regional Climate Simulations and ENSO Signal for Water Management: Case Study for Tampa Bay, Florida, U.S. (ENSO 패턴에 대한 MM5 강수 모의 결과의 유역단위 성능 평가: 플로리다 템파 지역을 중심으로)

  • Hwang, Syewoon;Hernandez, Jose
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.143-154
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    • 2012
  • As demand of water resources and attentions to changes in climate (e.g., due to ENSO) increase, long/short term prediction of precipitation is getting necessary in water planning. This research evaluated the ability of MM5 to predict precipitation in the Tampa Bay region over 23 year period from 1986 to 2008. Additionally MM5 results were statistically bias-corrected using observation data at 33 stations over the study area using CDF-mapping approach and evaluated comparing to raw results for each ENSO phase (i.e., El Ni$\tilde{n}$o and La Ni$\tilde{n}$a). The bias-corrected model results accurately reproduced the monthly mean point precipitation values. Areal average daily/monthly precipitation predictions estimated using block-kriging algorithm showed fairly high accuracy with mean error of daily precipitation, 0.8 mm and mean error of monthly precipitation, 7.1 mm. The results evaluated according to ENSO phase showed that the accuracy in model output varies with the seasons and ENSO phases. Reasons for low predictions skills and alternatives for simulation improvement are discussed. A comprehensive evaluation including sensitivity to physics schemes, boundary conditions reanalysis products and updating land use maps is suggested to enhance model performance. We believe that the outcome of this research guides to a better implementation of regional climate modeling tools in water management at regional/seasonal scale.

A Comparative Study on the Goodness of Fit in Spatial Econometric Models Using Housing Transaction Prices of Busan, Korea (부산시 실거래 주택매매 가격을 이용한 공간계량모형의 적합도 비교연구)

  • Chung, Kyoun-Sup;Kim, Sung-Woo;Lee, Yang-Won
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2012
  • The OLS(ordinary least squares) method is widely used in hedonic housing models. One of the assumptions of the OLS is an independent and uniform distribution of the disturbance term. This assumption can be violated when the spatial autocorrelation exists, which in turn leads to undesirable estimate results. An alterative to this, spatial econometric models have been introduced in housing price studies. This paper describes the comparisons between OLS and spatial econometric models using housing transaction prices of Busan, Korea. Owing to the approaches reflecting spatial autocorrelation, the spatial econometric models showed some superiority to the traditional OLS in terms of log likelihood and sigma square(${\sigma}^2$). Among the spatial models, the SAR(Spatial Autoregressive Models) seemed more appropriate than the SAC(General Spatial Models) and the SEM(Spatial Errors Models) for Busan housing markets. We can make sure the spatial effects on housing prices, and the reconstruction plans have strong impacts on the transaction prices. Selecting a suitable spatial model will play an important role in the housing policy of the government.

A Study on Calculation of Sectional Travel Speeds of the Interrupted Traffic Flow with the Consideration of the Characteristics of Probe Data (프로브 자료의 특성을 고려한 단속류의 구간 통행속도 산출에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Yeon Tak;Jung, Hun Young
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.1851-1861
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    • 2014
  • This study aims to calculate reliable sectional travel speeds with the consideration of the characteristics of the probe data collected in the interrupted traffic flow. First, in order to analysis the characteristics of the probe data, we looked into the distribution of the sectional travel times of each probe vehicle and compared the difference in the sectional travel speeds of each probe vehicle collected by DSRC. As a result, it is shown that outliers should be removed for the distribution of the sectional travel times. However, The comparison results show that the sectional travel speeds from the DSRC probe vehicles are not significantly different. Finally, based on the distribution characteristics of the sectional travel speeds of each probe vehicle and the representative values counted during a collection period, we drew the optimal outlier removal procedure and evaluated the estimation errors. The evaluation results showed that the DSRC sectional travel speeds were found to be similar to the observed values from actually running vehicles. On the contrary, in the case of the sectional travel speeds of intra-city bus, it was analyzed that they were less accurate than the DSRC sectional travel speeds. In the future, it will be necessary to improve BIS process and make use of the travel information on intra-city buses collected in real time to find various ways of applying it as traffic information.

Does the Geography Matter for Analysts' Forecasting Abilities and Stock Price Impacts? (기업 본사 소재지에 따른 애널리스트의 이익 예측능력 및 주가영향력 차이가 존재하는가?)

  • Kim, Dong-Soon;Eum, Seung-Sub
    • The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2008
  • We empirically examined the forecasting abilities of analysts in the Korean stock market with regard to their earnings estimates, and the impacts of their reports on stock prices. Further, we also examine if there is any difference in analysts' forecasting accuracy and stock prices impacts depending upon the geographical distance between analysts and companies they follow. We found the following interesting empirical results. First, analysts have tendency to overestimate sales, operating income, and net income, consistent with the previous literature. Second, the degree of overestimation depends upon the geography of companies. That is, it is smaller for companies headquartered in Seoul than companies in local provinces. Third, analysts' earnings estimates are also more accurate for companies located in Seoul. So, we conjecture that analysts have easier access to the information for the companies. Fourth, when analysts downgrade target prices, companies in Seoul are less negatively affected than those in local provinces. Even when analysts revise downward stock recommendations, stock prices of companies in Seoul go up. Overall, analysts' price impacts are more favorable for Seoul-located companies. Last, but not least, when foreign ownership is higher, investors react less negatively to downward revisions of stock recommendation, but react more negatively to downward revisions of target prices.

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CHARACTERISTICS OF TRAO 14M RADIO TELESCOPE (1999) (대덕전파천문대 14m 전파망원경의 특성(1999))

  • ROH DUK-GYOO;JUNG JAE HOON
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.123-128
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    • 1999
  • The beam size and the antenna efficiency of TRAO 14m radio telescope were measured at 86.2, 98.0 and 115.2 GHz. The beam size was determined by deconvolving the azimuthal scanning data of the Venus. To test the accuracy of our deconvolution method, the beam size at 86.2 GHz was compared with that determined from the mapping data of SiO maser line and we found no difference between them. With above beam sizes, antenna efficiencies were calculated from the continuum measurements of Venus, Jupiter and Moon. The beam efficiencies at these frequencies are appeared to be 0.49, 0.45 and 0.41, respectively. On the other hand, we also suggest that an automatic focus setting can be adopted for TRAO radio telescope based on the gradual change of best focus with elevation.

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A Dynamic Analysis of Import Price of Roundwood (원목수입가격(原木輸入價格)의 동태적(動態的) 분석(分析))

  • Han, Sang-Yoel;Kim, Tae-Kyun;Cho, Jae-Hwan;Choi, Kwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.88 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 1999
  • The dynamic relationships among import prices of roundwood are analyzed using the time series approach. A vector autoregression(VAR) model is estimated for six import prices(New Zealand, Chile, Russia, U.S.A., PNG, and Malaysia). Then Granger's causality test, variance decomposition analysis, and impulse response function analysis are also conducted. The major results are summarized as follows : (1) The prices of New Zealand and Russia are caused by only own lagged prices. (2) The prices of Chile and PNG are effected by New Zealand, the price of PNG is effected by New Zealand and Russia, and the price of U.S.A. is effected by those of Chile and PNG, respectively. (3) An exogenous shock in New Zealand will affect the prices of New Zealand, PNG, U.S.A., Chile, Russia. (4) An exogenous shock in Chile may also affect the prices of Chile, U.S.A., Russia.

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